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If Trevor Lawrence is just as bad next year where would he start to rank among all-time busts?


Bolts223

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1 hour ago, Bearerofnews said:

Also Herbert had the greatest rookie season ever and the greatest first 2 years in the league ever. So Herbert is the easy standard, based on individual play and not team success.

Herbert's success might be the main reason Lawrence is viewed as a major bust if he doesn't pan out. Herbert is basically everything Lawrence was hyped up to be.

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5 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Herbert's success might be the main reason Lawrence is viewed as a major bust if he doesn't pan out. Herbert is basically everything Lawrence was hyped up to be.

Yeah but Lawrence has shown elite trait flashes and he had arguably the worst situation i could ever think of for a rookie. I think most people realize that and won't hold it against him. Hard to succeed for any QB under the circumstances Trev faced. Ill be shocked if he doesnt atleast have a Herbert rookie like season this year.

 

4300 yds, 30 tds and 10 ints type thing. 

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22 hours ago, Bearerofnews said:

Luck's defense as a rookie was better than any defense Herbert has had.

 

Also Herbert had the greatest rookie season ever and the greatest first 2 years in the league ever. So Herbert is the easy standard, based on individual play and not team success.

 

I'd say probably not:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WarnKu00.htm

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30 minutes ago, FrantikRam said:

Even if we go Kurt's first 3 years in the league. Herb had more comps, yds, tds and less ints.

 

Ya gonna have to come to grips with Herb being a phenom. He also did it with 2 diff coaching staffs, offensive systems and OCs.  1 year with the worst oline and the other year with his receivers leading the league in drops.

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2 hours ago, Bearerofnews said:

Even if we go Kurt's first 3 years in the league. Herb had more comps, yds, tds and less ints.

 

Ya gonna have to come to grips with Herb being a phenom. He also did it with 2 diff coaching staffs, offensive systems and OCs.  1 year with the worst oline and the other year with his receivers leading the league in drops.

Come on now. Warner played in a much tougher era. Passing stats shot up after 2008.

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2 hours ago, Bearerofnews said:

Even if we go Kurt's first 3 years in the league. Herb had more comps, yds, tds and less ints.

 

Ya gonna have to come to grips with Herb being a phenom. He also did it with 2 diff coaching staffs, offensive systems and OCs.  1 year with the worst oline and the other year with his receivers leading the league in drops.

 

I just don't think he's the best QB in the league yet. Or even top 5. And that's okay. He's still really good. But can't buy into him being a phenom just yet. Mahomes second year was his best, and then we've seen him regress. It's entirely possible that last year will have been the best year of Herbert's career.

For the Chargers that's a good point though - mostly the same receivers right? So where do you rank their receivers going into next year? What will you think of Herbert if they miss the playoffs next year?

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Their offensive line isn’t good but it’s not a disaster, the WR corps is not good but it’s no longer a disaster after this offseason. Same with the RB group. With a SB winning offensive coach I should expect a “generational” QB talent in year two to be one of the 22 best QBs in the league, is that fair?

 

Im Not asking him to be top 5

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Warner had a HoF WR1, a HoF WR2, and a HoF all purpose back.

*I don't care if Peter King and his merry band of morons has not voted for Tory Holt. Holt belongs in the HoF.

He had a HoF LT just pancaking people.

No, it was not tougher for Kurt Warner in 1999-2000.

 

Warner is awesome. So is Herbert so far.

 

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He would still get a few more years to prove himself, I don’t think it’s right to make the call after this year because that Urban debacle is a tough stink to wash off.

that being said, if Lawrence becomes a bust I think it might be the worst ever, although not necessarily through a fault of his own. It seemed like every analyst assumed his floor was an amazing NFL QB. Jamarcus and Leaf were worse players, but everyone except the Raiders knew Jamarcus was a bum, and Leaf had a ton of red flags in hindsight. Lawrence was considered one of the safest prospects ever, so for that not to work out would reflect as a historic failure of the Jags to make it work.

 

goodness. Sometimes I really hate incompetent franchises. But ya, if Lawrence never improves, the Jags are holders of the worst bust of all time, imo, and most uniquely I don’t think it would be Lawrence’s fault really. 

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On 6/1/2022 at 4:50 PM, FrantikRam said:

 

I just don't think he's the best QB in the league yet. Or even top 5. And that's okay. He's still really good. But can't buy into him being a phenom just yet. Mahomes second year was his best, and then we've seen him regress. It's entirely possible that last year will have been the best year of Herbert's career.

For the Chargers that's a good point though - mostly the same receivers right? So where do you rank their receivers going into next year? What will you think of Herbert if they miss the playoffs next year?

If we are talking just WR corp i would say top 6.

I would need to see what the reason was why they missed. If Herbert plays like an MVP and the defense didnt improve, it would be the same. But if defense is better and offense and Herb struggle, i would have concerns.

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On 5/31/2022 at 10:52 PM, Bearerofnews said:

Yeah but Lawrence has shown elite trait flashes and he had arguably the worst situation i could ever think of for a rookie. I think most people realize that and won't hold it against him. Hard to succeed for any QB under the circumstances Trev faced. Ill be shocked if he doesnt atleast have a Herbert rookie like season this year.

 

4300 yds, 30 tds and 10 ints type thing. 

I think all the rookie QB’s showed great flashes last year outside of maybe Fields. Even Mills had some terrific flashes. It will be interesting to see how they all progress. Personally I think Lawrence will progress and have a Top 15 QB season, with Pederson as coach and a Top 3 Easiest Pass Defense SOS. I also think Lance might have a major breakout year, his skillset is insane and he is surrounded by a ridiculously talented team and talented coaches. 

Wilson, Fields, and Mills are the interesting ones that could go either way. Mills was a complete project but also everything you want in a prototypical QB, and started to flash at the end of the year. 

Wilson, the Jets have given him EVERYTHING. That offense is loaded. No one is expecting playoffs from them but if he can’t have at least a Top 15-16 QB season with that offense, it will not look good for him. 

As for Fields, it’s the opposite of Wilson. The Bears are kind of setting him up to fail. Their WR unit is laughable, it’s basically Mooney. Perhaps Velus Jones is a super sleeper, we shall see. Getsy is also a good match for Fields. 

Mills is arguably on the worst roster in the NFL, with a pretty meh coaching staff as well. However, he has a couple solid weapons in Cooks and Metchie (I think Metchie will be good). I think Brevin Jordan is fools gold though. Their OL and RB group are largely underwhelming as well. Mills and Lawrence do get the luxury of playing in a worse division than Fields/Lance/Mac/Wilson who all play in good divisions. So that is at least one thing Mills has going for him. 

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