This Year's Dynasty Draft Thoughts and Expectations

[Bigbear72]

I have a question for you guys and I wonder if I am alone in my thought process here. I have been in multiple dynasty leagues on many platforms for the better part of the last 10-15 years. Obviously there are multiple trade request and inquiries that go on around this time every year as you prepare for the draft. Is it me or does there not seem to be "that dude" in this year's draft? I have had multiple people reach out to me about trading picks (usually where I would receive a top three pick) but their asking price has been extremely high in most cases. Am I undervaluing this year's draft? I had one guy that I inquired about the pick 1.1 and he wanted David Montgomery and Mike Evans for it. Am I missing something? I just don't really see a game wrecker in this draft this year.

[Sllim Pickens]

2 hours ago, Bigbear72 said:

I have a question for you guys and I wonder if I am alone in my thought process here. I have been in multiple dynasty leagues on many platforms for the better part of the last 10-15 years. Obviously there are multiple trade request and inquiries that go on around this time every year as you prepare for the draft. Is it me or does there not seem to be "that dude" in this year's draft? I have had multiple people reach out to me about trading picks (usually where I would receive a top three pick) but their asking price has been extremely high in most cases. Am I undervaluing this year's draft? I had one guy that I inquired about the pick 1.1 and he wanted David Montgomery and Mike Evans for it. Am I missing something? I just don't really see a game wrecker in this draft this year.

There isnt that one RB who is in a good situation.  There also isn't a Chase level WR but there are a bunch of really solid guys in the first round.  I wouldnt be shocked if one or two of the WRs turn into top 5-10 WRs but honestly picking which one is tough.  So pretty much I agree, the difference between pick 1 and pick 10 is not huge but I think picks 5-10 are better this year than most. 

[Bigbear72]

4 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

There isnt that one RB who is in a good situation.  There also isn't a Chase level WR but there are a bunch of really solid guys in the first round.  I wouldnt be shocked if one or two of the WRs turn into top 5-10 WRs but honestly picking which one is tough.  So pretty much I agree, the difference between pick 1 and pick 10 is not huge but I think picks 5-10 are better this year than most. 

I'd definitely agree with you there. I'm glad I'm not at the top of the draft this year. There are some very solid guys in this draft but I don't really see any potential "kingmakers" either. I do think that because of that it may be one of the most interesting drafts in recent history.

[squire12]

56 minutes ago, Bigbear72 said:

I'd definitely agree with you there. I'm glad I'm not at the top of the draft this year. There are some very solid guys in this draft but I don't really see any potential "kingmakers" either. I do think that because of that it may be one of the most interesting drafts in recent history.

It is much less " consensus" than other years.

Hall is #1 in pretty much all formats.

Then it is a pick your flavor among Walker, Cook, London, Williams,  Wilson,  Burks, Olave.  Pickett gets mixed in for superflex (12+ teams, 10 teams he doesn't have much appeal).

Then....Dotson, Pickens, Moore, Watson, Pierce.

The tiers are more blended it seems compared to other years

 

[BayRaider]

Never got into Dynasty but Dynasty bestball looks interesting 

[sammymvpknight]

Halls a stud. He profiles as an elite RB. A few other solid RBs but definitely a drop off. 

[BayRaider]

2 hours ago, sammymvpknight said:

Halls a stud. He profiles as an elite RB. A few other solid RBs but definitely a drop off. 

I mean, he basically profiles as the most athletic RB ever looking at his RAS and overall combine. He gets a lot of hype but not nearly enough imo. I’m surprised he goes in the Mid-Late 4th Round in Redraft and Bestball Leagues. 

[sammymvpknight]

7 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

I mean, he basically profiles as the most athletic RB ever looking at his RAS and overall combine. He gets a lot of hype but not nearly enough imo. I’m surprised he goes in the Mid-Late 4th Round in Redraft and Bestball Leagues. 

People made the same stupid excuses before crying in their beers while Jonathan Taylor rumbles over their fantasy team. 

[BayRaider]

3 hours ago, sammymvpknight said:

People made the same stupid excuses before crying in their beers while Jonathan Taylor rumbles over their fantasy team. 

Anyone not picking him #1 in dynasty rookie drafts needs to have their heads examined. Said the same for Chase last year. Although last year was close between Chase or Harris, but still Chase for me 100%. 

This year is not close. London is #2 for me but it’s a distant #2. 

Edited July 14, 2022 by BayRaider

[Sllim Pickens]

11 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Anyone not picking him #1 in dynasty rookie drafts needs to have their heads examined. Said the same for Chase last year. Although last year was close between Chase or Harris, but still Chase for me 100%. 

This year is not close. London is #2 for me but it’s a distant #2. 

I think the biggest issue with Hall is his team being perennial losers and not having a dependable QB allowing teams to stack the box.  Also they have Carter to take some carries and likely be the primary receiving back there with his 55 targets last year.  Hall could very well just outshine Carter and the teams weaknesses and have a great year but I am not sold on him being a better fantasy option 3 years from now than a few of those WRs who could become top 5WRs.  If I have the top pick, I am taking Hall for sure, but I think some of the other RBs in better situations could be more productive this year at least.  

Last year I thought Harris was the easy #1, especially since Chase had a rough camp and preseason.  Pitts was going over Chase in quite a few drafts too, especially those held early.  

[sammymvpknight]

9 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I think the biggest issue with Hall is his team being perennial losers and not having a dependable QB allowing teams to stack the box.  Also they have Carter to take some carries and likely be the primary receiving back there with his 55 targets last year.  Hall could very well just outshine Carter and the teams weaknesses and have a great year but I am not sold on him being a better fantasy option 3 years from now than a few of those WRs who could become top 5WRs.  If I have the top pick, I am taking Hall for sure, but I think some of the other RBs in better situations could be more productive this year at least.  

Last year I thought Harris was the easy #1, especially since Chase had a rough camp and preseason.  Pitts was going over Chase in quite a few drafts too, especially those held early.  

I like Harris…but boy, Hall is just a better prospect. At some point you have to imagine that the cream rises to the top. I care much more about a players surroundings when they aren’t elite prospects. Elite prospects produce in spite of their surroundings. I would have cared less where Taylor and Barkley were drafted. Hall is pretty darn close as a prospect in my opinion. 

I think Carter is at best a 3rd down back and guy who gets on the field when Hall is tired after breaking a 20 yard run. 

It’s not that the WRs are bad. I’m sure will be really good. But they are a dime a dozen. Heck…there may be a guy in the 2nd round of rookie drafts that outplays London and the rest of the early 1st rounders. That further strengthens Hall’s stock. I’d target Hall in every draft in every format. For as hyped as he is…I think he is still underrated. 

Edited July 14, 2022 by sammymvpknight

[Sllim Pickens]

26 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

I like Harris…but boy, Hall is just a better prospect. At some point you have to imagine that the cream rises to the top. I care much more about a players surroundings when they aren’t elite prospects. Elite prospects produce in spite of their surroundings. I would have cared less where Taylor and Barkley were drafted. Hall is pretty darn close as a prospect in my opinion. 

I think Carter is at best a 3rd down back and guy who gets on the field when Hall is tired after breaking a 20 yard run. 

It’s not that the WRs are bad. I’m sure will be really good. But they are a dime a dozen. Heck…there may be a guy in the 2nd round of rookie drafts that outplays London and the rest of the early 1st rounders. That further strengthens Hall’s stock. I’d target Hall in every draft in every format. For as hyped as he is…I think he is still underrated. 

I just don't see Hall as a better prospect than Harris.  Harris was an elite prospect in a very good situation to succeed.  Hall is a very good prospect, and for dynasty he should be good if Wilson works out or if the staff shows they can utilize a fantasy relevant RB.  Situation is most important to me because you may end up with a Saquan Barkley who has a good year and then doesn't duplicate it with trash surroundings.  I don't think Hall is one of the can't miss RB prospects to come out the last few years.  RAS score and putting up yards in a conference that doesn't play defense is cool but he is less of a guarantee than many other RBs IMO.  And similarly to your comment about WRs, I think there are 3 or 4 other RBs that could outproduce the top 2 backs based on fit and surroundings.  There are a lot of WRs in this draft, but I see three or 4 that have potential to be in that top 5-7 range.  Hall could do the same at RB, which is why he is going first, I just don't like the chances of getting there with that organization. 

[sammymvpknight]

41 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I just don't see Hall as a better prospect than Harris.  Harris was an elite prospect in a very good situation to succeed.  Hall is a very good prospect, and for dynasty he should be good if Wilson works out or if the staff shows they can utilize a fantasy relevant RB.  Situation is most important to me because you may end up with a Saquan Barkley who has a good year and then doesn't duplicate it with trash surroundings.  I don't think Hall is one of the can't miss RB prospects to come out the last few years.  RAS score and putting up yards in a conference that doesn't play defense is cool but he is less of a guarantee than many other RBs IMO.  And similarly to your comment about WRs, I think there are 3 or 4 other RBs that could outproduce the top 2 backs based on fit and surroundings.  There are a lot of WRs in this draft, but I see three or 4 that have potential to be in that top 5-7 range.  Hall could do the same at RB, which is why he is going first, I just don't like the chances of getting there with that organization. 

I don’t see anything objective saying that Harris is a superior prospect. He was older, really doesn’t do anything Hall doesn’t do. He’s an inferior athlete. I think if they would have switched college unis…the superior prospect would be clear. And I’m a Harris fan. 

If Harris went to the Jets, and Hall to the Steelers…how would things looked? I think that Hall would be looked at as a top 5 dynasty asset. I personally think that landing spot is a bit overrated. Barkley didn’t do bad because of situation…he did bad because he was hurt. LT and Sanders are two other guys I’m not good situations that were exceptional. 

Edited July 14, 2022 by sammymvpknight

[Sllim Pickens]

46 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

I don’t see anything objective saying that Harris is a superior prospect. He was older, really doesn’t do anything Hall doesn’t do. He’s an inferior athlete. I think if they would have switched college unis…the superior prospect would be clear. And I’m a Harris fan. 

If Harris went to the Jets, and Hall to the Steelers…how would things looked? I think that Hall would be looked at as a top 5 dynasty asset. I personally think that landing spot is a bit overrated. Barkley didn’t do bad because of situation…he did bad because he was hurt. LT and Sanders are two other guys I’m not good situations that were exceptional. 

You are talking about two all time top 10 RBs that survived in bad situations.  And Barry went to the playoffs most years and went to an NFC championship game in his second year so his situation wasn't as awful as some make it out to be.  Barkley had injuries but even when healthy he has more runs for loss than any RB in the league.  He doesnt have a QB or the O Line to help him and the turnover with coaching staffs doesnt help. 

Najee is 15lbs heavier, almost as fast and is much stronger.  That profile fits bad situations better than a shifty guy as breaking tackles is needed.  But if you switched spots with them, I would have probably preferred Hall but it would have been close.  Some places are known to develop players and you know what you will get, others dont.  If Hall went to NE, I wouldn't have him as RB1 because the staff never uses a primary back even when they spend high draft picks on them.  The Jets havent had a fantasy relevant RB in a while and have a questionable situation around him.  The Steelers have plugged any RB in for 20 years and had success so adding a talented back to that system is a better chance for a hit.  There have been plenty of good RBs drafted high with good draft profiles that dont turn out.  This whole RB class reminds me more of the 2019 class than the 2020 class.  I am not sure there is a star in it, especially with where those players landed.  

[sammymvpknight]

2 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

You are talking about two all time top 10 RBs that survived in bad situations.  And Barry went to the playoffs most years and went to an NFC championship game in his second year so his situation wasn't as awful as some make it out to be.  Barkley had injuries but even when healthy he has more runs for loss than any RB in the league.  He doesnt have a QB or the O Line to help him and the turnover with coaching staffs doesnt help. 

Najee is 15lbs heavier, almost as fast and is much stronger.  That profile fits bad situations better than a shifty guy as breaking tackles is needed.  But if you switched spots with them, I would have probably preferred Hall but it would have been close.  Some places are known to develop players and you know what you will get, others dont.  If Hall went to NE, I wouldn't have him as RB1 because the staff never uses a primary back even when they spend high draft picks on them.  The Jets havent had a fantasy relevant RB in a while and have a questionable situation around him.  The Steelers have plugged any RB in for 20 years and had success so adding a talented back to that system is a better chance for a hit.  There have been plenty of good RBs drafted high with good draft profiles that dont turn out.  This whole RB class reminds me more of the 2019 class than the 2020 class.  I am not sure there is a star in it, especially with where those players landed.  

I’m clearly setting the bar high. We know that Najee is pretty good, so expecting ANYONE to be better than someone good is probably foolish. We never know until we see it on an NFL field. 

But I do think that we could be looking at an elite RB. I think he’s as good as any prospect that has come out since Barkley and Taylor. For that reason, I want part of it. By the time you wait for one of these RBs to prove it…it’s too late.