Dcash4 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, Dcash4 said: No, just finishing a season with A playoff win. - Tomlin, 16 seasons, 4 with playoff wins (10 making playoffs, 3 with multi-wins) - Harbaugh: 15 seasons, 7 with playoff wins (10 making playoffs, 2 multi-win) - Reid: 24 seasons, 13 with playoff wins (18 making playoffs, 7 multi-win) - Shanahan: 6 seasons, 3 with playoff wins (3 making playoffs, 3 multi-win) - McVay; 6 seasons, 3 with playoff wins (4 making playoffs, 2 multi-win) - McDermott: 6 seasons, 3 with playoff wins (5 making playoffs, 1 multi-win) - Carroll: 17 seasons, 8 with playoffs wins (12 making playoffs, 2 multi-win) - Pederson, 6 seasons, 3 with playoff wins (4 making playoffs, 1 multi-win) - McCarthy: 16 seasons, 7 with playoff wins (11 making playoffs, 2 multi-win) - Payton: 15 seasons, 7 with playoff wins (9 making playoffs, 1 multi-win) - Rivera: 12 seasons, 2 with playoff wins (5 making playoffs, 1 multi-win) - Belichick, 28 seasons, 15 with playoff wins (19 making playoffs, 10 multi-win) Apologies for the formatting below, but Tomlin is mid to low in all categories except for that when he wins a playoff game, he usually wins multiple. That percentage of seasons with at least one playoff win is rough. Seasons Playoffs? Won games multi-win % of playoffs % of seaons with win % of playoffs with win % of playoffs with multi wins Tomlin 16 10 4 3 63% 25% 40% 75% Harbaugh 15 10 7 2 67% 47% 70% 29% Reid 24 18 13 7 75% 54% 72% 54% Shanahan 6 3 3 3 50% 50% 100% 100% McVay 6 4 3 2 67% 50% 75% 67% McDermott 6 5 3 1 83% 50% 60% 33% Carrol 17 12 8 2 71% 47% 67% 25% Pederson 6 4 3 1 67% 50% 75% 33% McCarthy 16 11 7 2 69% 44% 64% 29% Payton 15 9 7 1 60% 47% 78% 14% Rivera 12 5 2 1 42% 17% 40% 50% Belichick 28 19 15 10 68% 54% 79% 67% With Rank for clarity instead of colors below: So Tomlin Ranks 9th (of 12) in seasons making playoff, 11th in seasons with a playoff win, 11th in playoffs with a win, and 2nd in playoff winning seasons with multi-wins. Seasons Playoffs? Won games multii-win % of playoffs Rank % of seaons with win Rank % of playoffs with win Rank % of playoffs with multi wins Rank Belichick 28 19 15 10 68% 5 54% 1 79% 2 67% 3 Carrol 17 12 8 2 71% 3 47% 7 67% 8 25% 11 Harbaugh 15 10 7 2 67% 6 47% 7 70% 7 29% 9 McCarthy 16 11 7 2 69% 4 44% 10 64% 9 29% 9 McDermott 6 5 3 1 83% 1 50% 3 60% 10 33% 7 McVay 6 4 3 2 67% 6 50% 3 75% 4 67% 3 Payton 15 9 7 1 60% 10 47% 7 78% 3 14% 12 Pederson 6 4 3 1 67% 6 50% 3 75% 4 33% 7 Reid 24 18 13 7 75% 2 54% 1 72% 6 54% 5 Rivera 12 5 2 1 42% 12 17% 12 40% 11 50% 6 Shanahan 6 3 3 3 50% 11 50% 3 100% 1 100% 1 Tomlin 16 10 4 3 63% 9 25% 11 40% 11 75% 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted October 16, 2023 Author Share Posted October 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Dcash4 said: With Rank for clarity instead of colors below: So Tomlin Ranks 9th (of 12) in seasons making playoff, 11th in seasons with a playoff win, 11th in playoffs with a win, and 2nd in playoff winning seasons with multi-wins. Seasons Playoffs? Won games multii-win % of playoffs Rank % of seaons with win Rank % of playoffs with win Rank % of playoffs with multi wins Rank Belichick 28 19 15 10 68% 5 54% 1 79% 2 67% 3 Carrol 17 12 8 2 71% 3 47% 7 67% 8 25% 11 Harbaugh 15 10 7 2 67% 6 47% 7 70% 7 29% 9 McCarthy 16 11 7 2 69% 4 44% 10 64% 9 29% 9 McDermott 6 5 3 1 83% 1 50% 3 60% 10 33% 7 McVay 6 4 3 2 67% 6 50% 3 75% 4 67% 3 Payton 15 9 7 1 60% 10 47% 7 78% 3 14% 12 Pederson 6 4 3 1 67% 6 50% 3 75% 4 33% 7 Reid 24 18 13 7 75% 2 54% 1 72% 6 54% 5 Rivera 12 5 2 1 42% 12 17% 12 40% 11 50% 6 Shanahan 6 3 3 3 50% 11 50% 3 100% 1 100% 1 Tomlin 16 10 4 3 63% 9 25% 11 40% 11 75% 2 If it isn’t clear by now that I’m a context guy, I want to look into this: were there any key injuries in those one and done, because off the top of my head I can think of three times where we had a key player not available. Personally I would leave out the 6 year less coaches because of skewing the data. Like just picking Doug Pederson, 5 years in Philly where he just took over a terrible Chip Kelly team, 3 playoff runs with a SB in there, then fired after a 4-11-1 season, picks up with a playoff ready roster. Sean McDermott’s numbers “behind the numbers” are kinda wild to me. 2017 they made the playoffs with Tyrol Taylor on strength of victory over Baltimore and LAC, despite LAC beating them head to head and Ravens having a better strength in conference than LAC. But yea, raw numbers like that lacking the context is just a rather interesting data set. I don’t expect you to do this work, and I’m not doing it today for reasons, but how many games were played with backup QB’s, how many total games were starters lost for in regular season, how many games in playoffs were lost by starters, and what’s the average seeding, playoffs or not, for each coach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rivers Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 https://steelersnow.com/steelers-may-put-broderick-jones-back-on-bench/ However, incumbent starter Dan Moore Jr. is ready to return from an MCL sprain he suffered against the Rams. whats wrong: Moore getting hurt MCL vs the Rams or Him returning and starting and resulting LT controversy? I can't believe this article considering the MCL sprain, why not let Moore get 100% first, then let him be a reserve as long as Jones is playing good. Now if Chuks isn't playing good, move Moore over there if need be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 I agree with added context being helpful, but this is a pretty large sample size for a guy like Tomlin. Context can add value and it can also just be excuses. No Ryan Clark against the Broncos makes things a little harder. Giving up 300+ to Tebow on 10 completions, shouldn't happen regardless. 10 of our 11 other starters on defense were playing. No Shazier changed a lot of things. But enough to make 45 to Blake Bortles at home after a bye week a thing? Their other two playoff games they averaged 15 points. Personally, I think that team during the covid season was just done and ready to pack up the Uhauls, but 48 to Baker Mayfield and the Browns without a head coach (!!!) on your homefield happened. There's no contexting that away. Even if we won all three of these games his seasons with a playoff win would only tie him with McCarthy for 10th. At the end of the day it's just a fact that only 4 of 16 seasons so far have ended with a playoff victory. That's kind of absurd. It honestly shocked me. It doesn't define his entire worth, but a 16 year sample size is pretty decent. And he sticks out like a sour thumb in some of those categories. Maybe he needs things to be perfect, maybe he is the unluckiest coach in the game. Don't know. But I know that's a lot of non-playoff winning seasons. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August4th Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 interesting seeing cle defense become elite after some offseason moves and a COORDINATOR CHANGE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August4th Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 car offense has been poor so they just made a COORDINATOR CHANGE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted October 16, 2023 Author Share Posted October 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, August4th said: interesting seeing cle defense become elite after some offseason moves and a COORDINATOR CHANGE 3 minutes ago, August4th said: car offense has been poor so they just made a COORDINATOR CHANGE Art Rooney is too poor to do it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted October 16, 2023 Author Share Posted October 16, 2023 30 minutes ago, Dcash4 said: It doesn't define his entire worth, but a 16 year sample size is pretty decent. And he sticks out like a sour thumb in some of those categories. Maybe he needs things to be perfect, maybe he is the unluckiest coach in the game. Don't know. But I know that's a lot of non-playoff winning seasons. Well a few things. 1 - I read a lot of people’s posts as though it defines his entire worth. 2 - Sure it sticks out like a sore thumb, but it’s why the context matters. 3 - he doesn’t need to have things perfect but he sure as hell has had an uphill battle at times. I think some of that data can often get skewed, and coaching conversations like this require far more context that stuff like that gives. Like you point out the Browns blowout - like is Pounceys crap snap and Bens pick-6 early on the game on Tomlin? Look through those losses and you often see a Ben pick early in the game deep in his own territory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August4th Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 40 minutes ago, warfelg said: Art Rooney is too poor to do it. Agree. I think matt would've been gone if it was up to mike tbh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rivers Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 56 minutes ago, August4th said: interesting seeing cle defense become elite after some offseason moves and a COORDINATOR CHANGE hint? 55 minutes ago, August4th said: car offense has been poor so they just made a COORDINATOR CHANGE hint? 10 minutes ago, August4th said: Agree. I think matt would've been gone if it was up to mike tbh then fire both? I guess thats not possible. We have to tolerate this teams ways, some of the worst offence we have ever had to deal with thanks ar2 and tomlin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 19 hours ago, warfelg said: I think some of that data can often get skewed, and coaching conversations like this require far more context that stuff like that gives. Like you point out the Browns blowout - like is Pounceys crap snap and Bens pick-6 early on the game on Tomlin? Look through those losses and you often see a Ben pick early in the game deep in his own territory. I don't really have a desire to continue the conversation with you on Tomlin. I just don't think I will get anything back other than it feeling like nothing is his fault. Anytime his name is thrown out with a poor stat or line I can hear your footsteps running down the hall to defend him. Like the bold, I 100% agree that players are held responsible for their own individual performances, but I think you would also agree that a coach has a hand to play in the mental preparedness and overall readiness of the team. An area we have failed on in multiple occasions regardless of situation or talent on the team. Everybody deals with things; injuries, depth, player issues, etc...it's not unique to Tomlin. But this data based against his peers puts him in a pretty poor light for results. So I only have one question for you on on the subject: What percentage of blame do you give to Tomlin for the lack of consistent success in the postseason? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted October 17, 2023 Author Share Posted October 17, 2023 24 minutes ago, Dcash4 said: What percentage of blame do you give to Tomlin for the lack of consistent success in the postseason? About 55-60% What percent of the blame goes on the QB with an average stat line in those losses of: 32.5 cmp, 49.5 att, 357.5 yds, 2.5 ts, 1.8 int, 3.3 sack, .6 fmb, .3 fl 25 minutes ago, Dcash4 said: Like the bold, I 100% agree that players are held responsible for their own individual performances, but I think you would also agree that a coach has a hand to play in the mental preparedness and overall readiness of the team. Like I’m sorry, I don’t believe that asking for context is defending Tomlin. Just as you say all that I feel the exact opposite that when I post context I can see responses of “oh it’s his job to prepare them coming so it’s all his fault” comments coming. Like, all I ask for is that we take player availability and their own play into account here the stuff you looked into is eye opening, but like I said - it lacks the context. Again there’s an assumption that I defend Tomlin much more than I actually am defending him. Is he part of the problem? Yes. Does firing him and hiring a new coach solve the issue? No. But the sense I get is the answer to that second one is “yes”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August4th Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Steelers plan on cutting Desmond King Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 1 minute ago, August4th said: Steelers plan on cutting Desmond King I’m sorry, what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted October 18, 2023 Author Share Posted October 18, 2023 10 minutes ago, August4th said: Steelers plan on cutting Desmond King I guess he was purely here for KR then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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