BDL Discussion Thread 2023

[rackcs]

11 hours ago, Blue said:

One of my favorite things to do around this time of year is look at how bad PFF's draft rankings are. Tell me what players are missing from these lists who really shouldn't be missing:

 

You know I'm a big PFF hater too but to be fair, these aren't their draft rankings. It's just the rankings of their terrible grades.

[MWil23]

PFF has awesome advanced stats such as break tackle rate, missed tackle rate, efficiency (except for QBR because that's horrendous), pass block/rush win rate, double team rate, etc.

It has major flaws because it's almost impossible to know what DB/lineman is responsible for what on any given play without knowing the scheme, play call, etc.

For example, last year vs. the NYJ Denzel Ward was "credited" by PFF for blowing that 75 yard TD catch on "his man", but they were playing a match coverage and Grant Delpit messed up the call (relayed in by MIKE LB Anthony Walker) and didn't rotate over top.

[rackcs]

23 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

PFF has awesome advanced stats such as break tackle rate, missed tackle rate, efficiency (except for QBR because that's horrendous), pass block/rush win rate, double team rate, etc.

It has major flaws because it's almost impossible to know what DB/lineman is responsible for what on any given play without knowing the scheme, play call, etc.

For example, last year vs. the NYJ Denzel Ward was "credited" by PFF for blowing that 75 yard TD catch on "his man", but they were playing a match coverage and Grant Delpit messed up the call (relayed in by MIKE LB Anthony Walker) and didn't rotate over top.

I feel like we always come back to that with PFF. Yes, their advanced stats are a great resource. But their grades suck and that's the main thing they always push out into the world via social media. Thus, they suck.

[MWil23]

20 minutes ago, rackcs said:

I feel like we always come back to that with PFF. Yes, their advanced stats are a great resource. But their grades suck and that's the main thing they always push out into the world via social media. Thus, they suck.

And I do actually think some of their grades are legitimate, such as QB play to a degree (minus things like INT's where a WR drops a pass into a guy's hands or runs a wrong route), and things like this:

...what's constituted as a "stop" as opposed to a tackle, and honestly some of their run grades:

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-how-pff-grades-run-defense

That said, even in the run grades, it's impossible to know for certain whether a DT or LB was lined up/shot the wrong gap often times, as they're essentially in about every scheme dependent upon one another.

[EaglesPeteC]

Anyone else listen to the "Locked on NFL Scouting" Podcast and/or the Draft Dudes?

 

They started a series the other day where they are breaking down each NFL roster and putting all into the following buckets to then have the conversation of where this team is in there development:

 

1) Franchise Cornerstone

2) Quality Starter

3) Replacement Level Starter

4) Depth Player

5) Incomplete Evaluation

6) Shouldn't Be Rostered/Practice Squad Player.

 

Thought it might be an interesting exercise, reframing it to the BDL level and hearing where people feel like their roster breaks down

 

1) Franchise Cornerstone- Christian McCaffrey (RB), Mark Andrews (TE), Danielle Hunter (EDGE), Shaq Leonard (LB), Darius Slay (CB), Budda Baker (S) 

2) Quality Starter- Courtland Sutton (WR), Jordan Mailata (OT), Landon Dickerson (OG), Issac Seumalo (OG), BJ Hill (DT), Brandon Graham (EDGE), Avonte Maddox (CB) 

3) Replacement Level Starter- Garrett Bradberry (C), Samsun Ekubaum (EDGE), Sebastian Joseph Day (DT), Alim McNeill (DT), Tyus Bowser (EDGE/LB), Kristian Fulton (CB)

4) Depth Player- Chuba Hubbard (RB), Robert Tonyan (TE), Jack Driscoll (OL), Quincy Williams (LB), Elijah Molden (CB), Julian Blackmon (S) 

5) Incomplete Evaluation- Bryce Young (QB), Quentin Johnston (WR), Tutu Atwell (WR), David Bell (WR), Nick Saldiveri (OG), Matthew Bergeron (OL), Wanya Morris (OT), Cam Thomas (EDGE), Jalen Carter (DT), Jermaine Johnson (EDGE), Nick Herbig (EDGE/LB), Quay Walker (LB), Jack Sanborn (LB), Darius Rush (CB), Reed Blankenship (S)

6) Shouldn't Be Rostered/Practice Squad Player.- Marquez Callaway (WR), Justyn Ross (WR), Jaylen Guyton (WR), Dee Eskridge (WR), Amari Rodgers (WR), Josh Jobe (CB), Trey Avery (CB), Ifeatu Melifonwu (S) 

 

Stepping back and looking at it, the fact that Incomplete Evaluation is my biggest group says the most about the state of my roster. This is a team in flux and I am relying on a lot of young players that I have very little info about to be major contributors

. Most of my franchise cornerstone players are either a) in low value positions (RB, TE, LB, S) or aging veterans who are on the back end of their cornerstone bucket.

I only see 2 players in my Quality starter bucket that I could see making the leap to cornerstone- Mailata and Dickerson. Maybe 2 of my replacement level starters that could jump a tier in Fulton and McNeill

My quality and replacement level starter buckets are very thin which means I have some serious work to do in FA and the tank to even line up week 1.

I took at million swings and WR last offseason and just have a hunk of trash at that position at the bottom of my roster. 

[MWil23]

The difference between 1 and 2 is razor thin IMO, and depending upon depth, age, and contract status can swing.

See: What Scoundrel does every year via trade

[Blue]

I have to say based on what was said about my team last year, a large portion of the league does not consider Courtland Sutton a quality starter. EDIT: I'd also swap Garrett Bradbury and Julian Blackmon.

Edited May 9, 2023 by Blue

[EaglesPeteC]

13 minutes ago, Blue said:

I have to say based on what was said about my team last year, a large portion of the league does not consider Courtland Sutton a quality starter. EDIT: I'd also swap Garrett Bradbury and Julian Blackmon.

I look at it like this, taking money out of the equation, how many teams would not want Courtland Sutton as one of their top 3 starting WR's based on talent alone? I would struggle to think of more than 1 or 2 teams. To me that is a quality starter, he is not the Superstar we thought he might be after his 2nd year, but he'd start for almost any team in the NFL. 

[Blue]

2 minutes ago, EaglesPeteC said:

I look at it like this, taking money out of the equation, how many teams would not want Courtland Sutton as one of their top 3 starting WR's based on talent alone? I would struggle to think of more than 1 or 2 teams. To me that is a quality starter, he is not the Superstar we thought he might be after his 2nd year, but he'd start for almost any team in the NFL. 

Ah, but this isn't the NFL. And I'd say at least five teams wouldn't put him in their top 3 receivers right now, maybe more depending on how people view their rookies/2nd year players.

[MWil23]

10 minutes ago, EaglesPeteC said:

I look at it like this, taking money out of the equation, how many teams would not want Courtland Sutton as one of their top 3 starting WR's based on talent alone? I would struggle to think of more than 1 or 2 teams. To me that is a quality starter, he is not the Superstar we thought he might be after his 2nd year, but he'd start for almost any team in the NFL. 

 

6 minutes ago, Blue said:

Ah, but this isn't the NFL. And I'd say at least five teams wouldn't put him in their top 3 receivers right now, maybe more depending on how people view their rookies/2nd year players.

Yeah, I think that's what makes the BDL version of this so complicated. For example, right now as a Browns fan, I'm pretty excited and optimistic to see what Elijah Moore does as the #2/3 with a fairly potent offense and scheme. 

And the BDL version of me takes a pretty big gulp with him there in a very similar spot.

[EaglesPeteC]

33 minutes ago, Blue said:

Ah, but this isn't the NFL. And I'd say at least five teams wouldn't put him in their top 3 receivers right now, maybe more depending on how people view their rookies/2nd year players.

Even by BDL standards, if a player is a positive starter for more than half the league that player should still be put in the quality starter bucket in my opinion. 

[Scoundrel]

1 hour ago, MWil23 said:

The difference between 1 and 2 is razor thin IMO, and depending upon depth, age, and contract status can swing.

See: What Scoundrel does every year via trade

[MWil23]

1) Franchise Cornerstone- Mahomes, Laremy Tunsil, Tre'davious White

2) Quality Starter- Rhamondre Stevenson, Aaron Jones, Kyle Juszczyk, Chris Olave (potential cornerstone), David Bakhtiari, Kayvon Thibodeaux (potential cornerstone or RLS), Jonathan Allen, Pete Werner, Jalen Pitre, Kevin Byard, Marcus Williams

3) Replacement Level Starter- Gregory Rousseau (potential quality starter), Brandon Smith, Ernest Jones, Jack Jones, Elijah Moore (potential quality starter), Zion Johnson (potential QS), Cordell Volson, Mike Gesicki

4) Depth Player- Nick Harris

5) Incomplete Evaluation- Israel Abanikanda, Velus Jones, Broderick Jones, Michael Mayer, Noah Sewell, Zyon McCollum, Ricky Stromberg, Travis Jones, Isaiah Foskey

6) Shouldn't Be Rostered/Practice Squad Player.- Lance McCutcheon, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

I'll let @Blue disagree/agree with me and fill in the gaps.

Some of the "incomplete evaluation" guys will fall into tiers 1-5. As of now, McCollum would be a "depth/shouldn't be rostered" guy, same with Velus Jones. Travis Jones is a giant ? with his injury history. Velus Jones probably falls into the "shouldn't be rostered" as well with the new additions in Chicago.

[Blue]

Rousseau is definitely a Quality Starter in my book. Brandon Smith should probably be a Depth Player, with the potential to be better than that. McCutcheon is an Incomplete guy atm. And yeah, Velus is a Shouldn't Be Rostered until he proves otherwise.

We have a really young roster for the most part and several players moving to new roles/teams. I'm VERY high on Zion, Volson, and Gesicki for the upcoming season.

[MWil23]

21 minutes ago, Blue said:

Rousseau is definitely a Quality Starter in my book. Brandon Smith should probably be a Depth Player, with the potential to be better than that. McCutcheon is an Incomplete guy atm. And yeah, Velus is a Shouldn't Be Rostered until he proves otherwise.

We have a really young roster for the most part and several players moving to new roles/teams. I'm VERY high on Zion, Volson, and Gesicki for the upcoming season.

I forgot to go back and switch out a few guys after I put them in the parenthesis, and Rousseau is definitely one of them.