Trevor Lawrence Vs. Justin Herbert

[showtime]

This isn't even a question for me. It's Lawrence easily.

[Soko]

8 hours ago, Soggust said:

And if he manages to trend past Herbert, we move him ahead. No shame. We aren't committed in perpetuity.

But if we don't wait, one might make the argument that Justin Fields is trending upwards while Herbert (according to you) is trending down.

Certainly, we are not taking Fields over Herbert because his peak has not eclipsed Herbert's floor.

But the question isn’t asking who is better, it’s asking who you are taking. Projection, trajectory, and expectation all play heavily into that (much more so than when comparing the two at the moment).

[Soggust]

12 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

But the question isn’t asking who is better, it’s asking who you are taking. Projection, trajectory, and expectation all play heavily into that (much more so than when comparing the two at the moment).

And I project that Herbert is likely to regress to his 2020 + 2021 seasons more likely than repeat his 2022 season. I think it's also possible (I won't say likely) that TL doesn't have a stretch of top 2 QB play for half the season next year and ends up with worse stats.

I think the projection take would be a super valid argument if we were comparing Trevor Lawrence to Kirk Cousins or some older guy on a decline, but certainly we all agree that Justin Herbert still has tons of potential, right? (outside of the context of the Lawrence discussion, like just in general)

If we do agree, then really what we are saying is that the difference between these 2022 seasons and because of what he did in college 3 years ago is enough to make me believe he's going to be better going forward that a guy who's produced 2 even better years at the professional level ->

				Passing															Rushing					Receiving
Rk	Player	Year	G	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Rate	Lng	Int	Sk	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	NY/A	ANY/A	Att	Yds	TD	Y/A	Lng	Rec	Yds	TD	Y/R	Lng
1	Justin Herbert	2022	17	10-7-0	477	699	68.2	4739	25	93.2	55	10	38	206	6.8	6.85	6.15	6.22	54	147	0	2.7	23	2	-10	0	-5.0	-2
2	Trevor Lawrence	2022	17	9-8-0	387	584	66.3	4113	25	95.2	59	8	27	184	7.0	7.28	6.43	6.66	62	291	5	4.7	24	0	0	0		0

 

[Soko]

25 minutes ago, Soggust said:

And I project that Herbert is likely to regress to his 2020 + 2021 seasons more likely than repeat his 2022 season. I think it's also possible (I won't say likely) that TL doesn't have a stretch of top 2 QB play for half the season next year and ends up with worse stats.

I think the projection take would be a super valid argument if we were comparing Trevor Lawrence to Kirk Cousins or some older guy on a decline, but certainly we all agree that Justin Herbert still has tons of potential, right? (outside of the context of the Lawrence discussion, like just in general)

If we do agree, then really what we are saying is that the difference between these 2022 seasons and because of what he did in college 3 years ago is enough to make me believe he's going to be better going forward that a guy who's produced 2 even better years at the professional level ->

				Passing															Rushing					Receiving
Rk	Player	Year	G	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Rate	Lng	Int	Sk	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	NY/A	ANY/A	Att	Yds	TD	Y/A	Lng	Rec	Yds	TD	Y/R	Lng
1	Justin Herbert	2022	17	10-7-0	477	699	68.2	4739	25	93.2	55	10	38	206	6.8	6.85	6.15	6.22	54	147	0	2.7	23	2	-10	0	-5.0	-2
2	Trevor Lawrence	2022	17	9-8-0	387	584	66.3	4113	25	95.2	59	8	27	184	7.0	7.28	6.43	6.66	62	291	5	4.7	24	0	0	0		0

If you want to think Lawrence regresses (despite recent uptick in play) and Herbert progresses (despite recent downtick in play), that’s fine. It’s, like, your opinion, man.

Just highlighting that this discussion isn’t about who’s better right now, because your first comment seemed to imply that it was. 

[Soggust]

1 hour ago, Yin-Yang said:

If you want to think Lawrence regresses (despite recent uptick in play) and Herbert progresses (despite recent downtick in play), that’s fine. It’s, like, your opinion, man.

Just highlighting that this discussion isn’t about who’s better right now, because your first comment seemed to imply that it was. 

I don't think there's a difference, to be honest (in this discussion).

Maybe I'm wrong in that (everyone always tells me how wrong I am about not projecting enough so I get it), but in my eyes -> we are comparing a 23 vs 24 year old player, not some boomer QB. What's the major potential difference?

Like, I can't make an unbiased case for projecting more future potential for a guy because he was awesome when he was on a stacked team in college 3 years ago while the other guy was producing as top 5 QB in the NFL. 

And I have a hard time genuinely arguing for more future potential because of "uptick in play" vs "downtick in play" when they produced the same season lol. That just tells me one guys floor is the other guys ceiling so far. And Herbert improved in year two, so I mean, it's not like he's trending down.

Like, I'm not even allowed to bring up TL's rookie year, but Herbert gets no mulligan for having a down year of ... [checks notes] ... Trevor Lawrence stats?

It makes no sense to me. 

It's like taking Hurts over Josh Allen going forward imo. Like, if an Eagles/Jags fan is making the case, I could give them the benefit of the doubt. But it's just clearly too early imo as he's still a tier below in my eyes.

 

Edited March 4, 2023 by Soggust

[Soggust]

1 hour ago, Yin-Yang said:

If you want to think Lawrence regresses (despite recent uptick in play) and Herbert progresses (despite recent downtick in play), that’s fine. It’s, like, your opinion, man.

Just highlighting that this discussion isn’t about who’s better right now, because your first comment seemed to imply that it was. 

And a football for having to reread my same argument over and over when you just trying to keep me on track.

[HerbertGOAT]

Lawrence and Herbert had similar seasons, where one was given a SB winning HC who happens to be good at developing QBs, a WR room of diverse talents (like, multiple NFL caliber route runners and speed), a solid rushing attack, and an average OL, where the other was given a fake defensive guru klutz, an OC who thinks Calvin Johnson should run 3-yard outs the whole game, a completely battered OL, a battered WR room, and a return specialist as his WR2 for the majority of the season.

Context matters. Lawrence is on the upswing for sure and Herbert had a poor season by his standards with a pretty crappy hand. I won't quibble with somebody taking Lawrence, but saying "it's not even close" is asinine on either side.

[LinderFournette]

On 3/2/2023 at 5:43 PM, NYRaider said:

Not even just the wild card game, his rookie season was one of the messiest situations that a top QB prospect has ever had to deal with. The fact that he made a major leap is super encouraging because a lot of guys would've crumbled.

lets not forget that Clemsons offense also doesnt translate very well to the NFL so he probably was more raw then what he should have been. 

[LinderFournette]

2 hours ago, Soggust said:

And I project that Herbert is likely to regress to his 2020 + 2021 seasons more likely than repeat his 2022 season. I think it's also possible (I won't say likely) that TL doesn't have a stretch of top 2 QB play for half the season next year and ends up with worse stats.

I think the projection take would be a super valid argument if we were comparing Trevor Lawrence to Kirk Cousins or some older guy on a decline, but certainly we all agree that Justin Herbert still has tons of potential, right? (outside of the context of the Lawrence discussion, like just in general)

If we do agree, then really what we are saying is that the difference between these 2022 seasons and because of what he did in college 3 years ago is enough to make me believe he's going to be better going forward that a guy who's produced 2 even better years at the professional level ->

				Passing															Rushing					Receiving
Rk	Player	Year	G	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Rate	Lng	Int	Sk	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	NY/A	ANY/A	Att	Yds	TD	Y/A	Lng	Rec	Yds	TD	Y/R	Lng
1	Justin Herbert	2022	17	10-7-0	477	699	68.2	4739	25	93.2	55	10	38	206	6.8	6.85	6.15	6.22	54	147	0	2.7	23	2	-10	0	-5.0	-2
2	Trevor Lawrence	2022	17	9-8-0	387	584	66.3	4113	25	95.2	59	8	27	184	7.0	7.28	6.43	6.66	62	291	5	4.7	24	0	0	0		0

 

keep in Mind Lawrence is adding Ridley to this jags offense while taking away Marvin jones JR.  he also had to do this while not having a True Number 1 wr and most people considered Kirk prior to last year as a WR3 at best. 

 

 

[Chiefs_5627]

Herbie has a bigger resume, so him for now but Lawrence is trending upwards fast and has a team willing to go the extra mile to get him there. Also dude deserves a mulligan for that rookie year.

[Soggust]

6 hours ago, LinderFournette said:

keep in Mind Lawrence is adding Ridley to this jags offense while taking away Marvin jones JR.  he also had to do this while not having a True Number 1 wr and most people considered Kirk prior to last year as a WR3 at best. 

 

 

Absolutely. I know I'm coming off as a TL hater (as I often do), but let me just be clear.

We are comparing top 5 young QB talents. Both are awesome players and, if I didn't happen to have Mahomes on my team, I would absolutely be SUPER happy with either of them leading my team. We are just splitting hairs between great talents imo, so my process is to take the resume for now. But I easily might have a different take next year.

[Soko]

11 hours ago, Soggust said:

I don't think there's a difference, to be honest (in this discussion).

Maybe I'm wrong in that (everyone always tells me how wrong I am about not projecting enough so I get it), but in my eyes -> we are comparing a 23 vs 24 year old player, not some boomer QB. What's the major potential difference?

Like, I can't make an unbiased case for projecting more future potential for a guy because he was awesome when he was on a stacked team in college 3 years ago while the other guy was producing as top 5 QB in the NFL. 

And I have a hard time genuinely arguing for more future potential because of "uptick in play" vs "downtick in play" when they produced the same season lol. That just tells me one guys floor is the other guys ceiling so far. And Herbert improved in year two, so I mean, it's not like he's trending down.

Like, I'm not even allowed to bring up TL's rookie year, but Herbert gets no mulligan for having a down year of ... [checks notes] ... Trevor Lawrence stats?

It makes no sense to me. 

It's like taking Hurts over Josh Allen going forward imo. Like, if an Eagles/Jags fan is making the case, I could give them the benefit of the doubt. But it's just clearly too early imo as he's still a tier below in my eyes.

I’d certainly say there’s a difference in arguing “who is better right now” vs “who do you want going forward”, even for young QBs. Who is playing better right now isn’t necessarily who you (not you specifically, you as in anyone) believe will be better going forward. You can view it as giving guys a mulligan for their worst seasons (Lawrence’s rookie year, Herbert’s most recent year) but others will weigh their most recent seasons more heavily - which makes a little more sense given their short careers, within the lens of whether they on an uptick or a downtick. 

And it’s more than just stats, like leaning on that here is an extremely myopic way of looking at things IMO. Yeah, their stats this year were similar, but who played better? Who was doing more with less? Who shrunk in the playoffs and who got better? And again, if you answer that and still think Herbert’s 2024 and beyond is brighter, that’s totally cool, but you have to weigh where you think they’re headed in this conversation more than where you think they are now.

[LinderFournette]

5 hours ago, Soggust said:

Absolutely. I know I'm coming off as a TL hater (as I often do), but let me just be clear.

We are comparing top 5 young QB talents. Both are awesome players and, if I didn't happen to have Mahomes on my team, I would absolutely be SUPER happy with either of them leading my team. We are just splitting hairs between great talents imo, so my process is to take the resume for now. But I easily might have a different take next year.

With how the wr combine is looking that Ridley trade looking better and better. 

 

Herbert got beat by Trevor this past season twice both had a home and away game. 

I think Trevor is the better dual threat while Herbert probably has a lil stronger arm. 

[///mcompact]

I'll take the one that's not overrated.   

Give me Lawrence.

[Greene N White]

I used to agree the Herbert was a bit overrated but the way people are talking about him now I honestly think he's becoming underrated. 

Not sure what everyone's opinion is on Brandon Staley but I think he's a fantastic coordinator but not cut out to be the guy calling the shots. His in game management has been so bad it's insane. I think if/when he's fired they'll get a good coach to pair with Herbert.