Dynasty General Discussion

[AkronsWitness]

1 hour ago, squire12 said:

you talking about ADP rankings for the bold?   

based on dynasty ADP, that is Ekeler, Harris, Chubb, Javonte VS CMC, Mixon, Akers

most recent auction I did that is $39, $20, $32, $7 (total of $98)  VS $38, $16, $14 ($68)

 

lol Im just throwing out random numbers to illustrate my point that I would rather have 3-4 good RBs in the $20-$30 range rather than 1 great RB at $60-$70 and then it drops off a cliff scrounging for value with a bunch of timeshare guys at $5-10----or spend a bunch for 2-3 great RBs which will then limit you elsewhere on the roster.

Every auction is different though. My league loves to splurge on RBs because there are so few of them that the top 2-3 get bid up to the moon. Like I said in my previous post CMC went for $90 2 years ago. Someone almost paid HALF of their entire budget for 1 player...and he got hurt the entire year lol That is not my strategy at all.

Edited August 16, 2023 by AkronsWitness

[AkronsWitness]

duplicate

Edited August 17, 2023 by AkronsWitness

[squire12]

3 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

lol Im just throwing out random numbers to illustrate my point that I would rather have 3-4 good RBs in the $20-$30 range rather than 1 great RB at $60-$70 and then it drops off a cliff scrounging for value with a bunch of timeshare guys at $5-10----or spend a bunch for 2-3 great RBs which will then limit you elsewhere on the roster.

Every auction is different though. My league loves to splurge on RBs because there are so few of them that the top 2-3 get bid up to the moon. Like I said in my previous post CMC went for $90 2 years ago. Someone almost paid HALF of their entire budget for 1 player...and he got hurt the entire year lol That is not my strategy at all.

Ok.  Just throwing out numbers is fun.  When you attach actual sale prices to them you just spent more for you group that the other owner.

Saying you want cheap players that will finish high in ppg isn't really novel advice

******

I'm honestly interested in doing some background searching on this if you want to put specific names to each group.  I've done 3 auction startups this summer and can pull sale prices for each player from each league

Edited August 17, 2023 by squire12

[AkronsWitness]

26 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Ok.  Just throwing out numbers is fun.  When you attach actual sale prices to them you just spent more for you group that the other owner.

Saying you want cheap players that will finish high in ppg isn't really novel advice

But your still missing the point then, the exact dollar figures are irrelevant.  What is relevant is the strategy.Sorry bud, dont remember exact dollar figure only roundabouts of what I paid for each of my auction players in a league in 2021, but I do remember that my 3 RBs combined were cheaper than the top tier players.

The strategy/advice is don't do that. Dont waste dollars on having a imbalanced top heavy roster, but instead stack yours with twice the amount of impactful players in the second/third waves of bidding, not only shielding you from bye weeks but protecting your team from 1 injury ruining your entire fantasy season.

Thats the advice, not that I got Aaron Jones for $28 (or was it $26🤔, maybe it was $25) in 2021.

 

Edited August 17, 2023 by AkronsWitness

[squire12]

12 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

But your still missing the point then, the exact dollar figures are irrelevant.  What is relevant is the strategy.Sorry bud, dont remember exact dollar figure only roundabouts of what I paid for each of my auction players in a league in 2021, but I do remember that my 3 RBs combined were cheaper than the top tier players.

The strategy/advice is don't do that. Dont waste dollars on having a imbalanced top heavy roster, but instead stack yours with twice the amount of impactful players in the second/third waves of bidding, not only shielding you from bye weeks but protecting your team from 1 injury ruining your entire fantasy season.

Thats the advice, not that I got Aaron Jones for $28 (or was it $26🤔, maybe it was $25) in 2021.

 

I understand your theory/strategy perfectly well.  I am trying to help the poster with the original question to be able to see what implementing that actual theory/strategy might actually yield in an auction process.   All theories are fine, but ones that have been tested and sampled with real data can help to make a better decision on whether it is a worthwhile one.   

[Frankie2Gunz]

Who should I keep in a .5ppr keeper league where we keep two.  I am keeping Josh Allen as passing Td's are 6 point and Allen is as good as it gets at the QB position.  My second keeper is between Jonathan Taylor or S. Barkley.  Taylor is 2 years younger but we comes with more baggage and is supposedly dealing with an ankle issue, who knows if the injury is real or if he is saying he is not 100 percent just to get paid and not fined, either way it's concerning.  He also has demanded a trade and who knows how serious he is.  On the flip side the Colts would be insane to start AR without their best player on the field.  Something has to give and I think it will be Indy. 

Barkley is a stud and so is Taylor and if both were healthy and motivated i would keep JT so I guess my question is who do I keep for the long term and not just having this season in mind.  Whoever I decide not to keep I will trade.  As it currently stands Barkley projects better for this season without question but if the JT situation is resolved I feel like he is the better long term play.  Thoughts?

[Sllim Pickens]

12 hours ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

Who should I keep in a .5ppr keeper league where we keep two.  I am keeping Josh Allen as passing Td's are 6 point and Allen is as good as it gets at the QB position.  My second keeper is between Jonathan Taylor or S. Barkley.  Taylor is 2 years younger but we comes with more baggage and is supposedly dealing with an ankle issue, who knows if the injury is real or if he is saying he is not 100 percent just to get paid and not fined, either way it's concerning.  He also has demanded a trade and who knows how serious he is.  On the flip side the Colts would be insane to start AR without their best player on the field.  Something has to give and I think it will be Indy. 

Barkley is a stud and so is Taylor and if both were healthy and motivated i would keep JT so I guess my question is who do I keep for the long term and not just having this season in mind.  Whoever I decide not to keep I will trade.  As it currently stands Barkley projects better for this season without question but if the JT situation is resolved I feel like he is the better long term play.  Thoughts?

Is there a rule about how long you can keep guys or what you lose for keeping them?  I would lean towards Taylor especially if Barkley gets you a better return right now.  I think getting offers on both makes sense and then selling whichever one makes your team better long term.  

[Frankie2Gunz]

31 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Is there a rule about how long you can keep guys or what you lose for keeping them?  I would lean towards Taylor especially if Barkley gets you a better return right now.  I think getting offers on both makes sense and then selling whichever one makes your team better long term.  

There are no restrictions on how long you can keep them nor is there any loss by keeping either. I have an offer on the table for Barkley that I am strongly considering but the longer the Taylor situation drags on the more hesitant I become. 

Edited August 18, 2023 by Frankie2Gunz

[Sllim Pickens]

4 minutes ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

There are no restrictions on how long you can keep them nor is there any loss by keeping either. I have an offer on the table for Barkley that I am strongly considering but the longer the Taylor situation drags on the more hesitant I become. 

If you keep Taylor, just be sure to draft a handcuff in Deon Jackson.  It might suck if he misses a few games but if you are thinking long term, its rare to have a young RB like him.  Barkley is two years older and just as much of an injury risk since last year was the first time since his rookie year he played most of the season.  

[Frankie2Gunz]

6 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

If you keep Taylor, just be sure to draft a handcuff in Deon Jackson.  It might suck if he misses a few games but if you are thinking long term, its rare to have a young RB like him.  Barkley is two years older and just as much of an injury risk since last year was the first time since his rookie year he played most of the season.  

100 percent agree! Thanks for confirming! 

[Frankie2Gunz]

3 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

If you keep Taylor, just be sure to draft a handcuff in Deon Jackson.  It might suck if he misses a few games but if you are thinking long term, its rare to have a young RB like him.  Barkley is two years older and just as much of an injury risk since last year was the first time since his rookie year he played most of the season.  

We have something call a prospect keeper as well and I think I know the answer I will get based on your name.  I can keep either B. Robinson the RB from Washington or G. Pickens.  I am strongly leaning towards Pickens.  Thoughts?

[sammymvpknight]

12 hours ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

We have something call a prospect keeper as well and I think I know the answer I will get based on your name.  I can keep either B. Robinson the RB from Washington or G. Pickens.  I am strongly leaning towards Pickens.  Thoughts?

Pickens hype is pretty crazy right now. He’s the pick. If you like Robinson you’d be able to flip Pickens for Robinson++

[Frankie2Gunz]

It's a .5 PR keeper league with no restrictions on who you can keep and we keep 3.  I had Eckler, Pollard, G. Wilson and J. Allen.  I worked a trade for Eckler that netted me a 1st and 3rd this year and a 2nd and 5th next year.  I'm now keeping Pollard who is two years younger, Wilson who will vault into the superstar realm this year and Allen who is a top QB in the game.  I love Eckler as he is a safe as they come but is 28, has a new coordinator and three legit receivers this year who could take targets away from him.  Do you think I made the right move?  

[Sllim Pickens]

On 8/20/2023 at 10:32 AM, Frankie2Gunz said:

It's a .5 PR keeper league with no restrictions on who you can keep and we keep 3.  I had Eckler, Pollard, G. Wilson and J. Allen.  I worked a trade for Eckler that netted me a 1st and 3rd this year and a 2nd and 5th next year.  I'm now keeping Pollard who is two years younger, Wilson who will vault into the superstar realm this year and Allen who is a top QB in the game.  I love Eckler as he is a safe as they come but is 28, has a new coordinator and three legit receivers this year who could take targets away from him.  Do you think I made the right move?  

I don't think its a bad move since I am waiting for Ekeler to fall off too, but honestly I would probably keep him over Allen.  I guess it comes down to if you are trying to win this year or more worried about long term contending. 

As nervous as I am about Ekeler's age, he has 811 career carries which is 100 less than Barkley has had at age 26 and missing a ton of time.  And only has had 205 the last two years as a starter which is less than Brian Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, and Rahmondre Stevenson.  So I am less worried about his body falling apart. 

As for the new OC, that OC just had an offense with a RB in a time share that scored top 10 points in Pollard, so I am not concerned with how he will be utilized.  Especially since there is no threat to steal time away from him at this time so he will likely keep a bigger share of the workload than the Pollard/Zeke split.  

So it is risky to not keep him, and I get why you aren't, but based on ADP and even dynasty rankings, he is still top 20 and Josh Allen is barely top 40.  It seems a lot more likely that you will be able to re-draft Allen than it would you getting Ekeler or someone close to that caliber back.  

[Frankie2Gunz]

7 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I don't think its a bad move since I am waiting for Ekeler to fall off too, but honestly I would probably keep him over Allen.  I guess it comes down to if you are trying to win this year or more worried about long term contending. 

As nervous as I am about Ekeler's age, he has 811 career carries which is 100 less than Barkley has had at age 26 and missing a ton of time.  And only has had 205 the last two years as a starter which is less than Brian Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, and Rahmondre Stevenson.  So I am less worried about his body falling apart. 

As for the new OC, that OC just had an offense with a RB in a time share that scored top 10 points in Pollard, so I am not concerned with how he will be utilized.  Especially since there is no threat to steal time away from him at this time so he will likely keep a bigger share of the workload than the Pollard/Zeke split.  

So it is risky to not keep him, and I get why you aren't, but based on ADP and even dynasty rankings, he is still top 20 and Josh Allen is barely top 40.  It seems a lot more likely that you will be able to re-draft Allen than it would you getting Ekeler or someone close to that caliber back.  

This was exactly my conundrum but I will say that the scoring in this league favors QB's with 6pts for every passing TD and Allen is usually good for 600 plus rushing yards and 5 scores.  Looking back there are some quality QB's who were not kept in Burrow, Herbert, Lamar, Fields but I assure you that if I would have cut Allen he would have not made it to 8 overall. 

I decided I was keeping Allen but the decision came down to Ekeler and Wilson.  I would have had to cut Wilson or give him away for nothing as I wasn't getting any solid offers for him and someone made a solid offer for Ekeler. No chance Wilson would have made it to 8 either and I think Rogers makes him a superstar this year. 

The way I look at it is I got Wilson and all of those picks for Ekeler.

I also think that Ekeler will regress in receptions this season compared to last season with a "healthy" WR corp and another quality pass catcher in the mix with Johnston but yeah he still should be a lock for a top 3 finish at the RB position regardless.  Ekeler is in fantastic shape and is a heck of a player and moving him was not easy.  I felt like this stock is at an ATH right now and the age scared me a bit so I had to take the offer.  For this season keeping Ekeler is a no brainer but I wanted to get younger and Wilson allowed me to do that.  

I also feel like had I waited until after the season there is a chance that Ekeler would depart LA for a hefty payday somewhere else and his career would fall off as he would be 29 and most likely wouldn't be utilized the same way in another system.  

Thanks for the insight, I really appreciate your well thought out responses!