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The STL Cardinals Thread - New Season, Same Old Cardinals?


CWood21

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On 10/14/2022 at 11:15 AM, CWood21 said:

I mean, I use WAR as part of the equation.  What kind of deal do you think he's going to get?

I think the true multiple years is the sticking point here with me. I think he is now in the 1 year deal group, both of his previous two seasons have been that (for $8m and $2m) so for one very good year to leap him into a 3 year deal at pretty decent money seems like a bad move for any team.

So if you want to use WAR to determine a 1 year deal, then sure. That never puts a team in a bad spot. But when you are talking about multiple committed years, thats where I dont think one years worth of WAR is applicable. Especially when hes about to be 34, and has only done this one other time in the past 5 years.

So for Quintana, I think he is in the One Year, $8-9-10m deal. Would I go alittle bit more for him if Waino is for sure retired? Yea probably to that $12m mark, but no with longer committed dollars. I could see doing something like a team/mutual option for '24 and even '25 attached to it, but not completely committing to him long term right off the bat.

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3 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

I think the true multiple years is the sticking point here with me. I think he is now in the 1 year deal group, both of his previous two seasons have been that (for $8m and $2m) so for one very good year to leap him into a 3 year deal at pretty decent money seems like a bad move for any team.

So if you want to use WAR to determine a 1 year deal, then sure. That never puts a team in a bad spot. But when you are talking about multiple committed years, thats where I dont think one years worth of WAR is applicable. Especially when hes about to be 34, and has only done this one other time in the past 5 years.

So for Quintana, I think he is in the One Year, $8-9-10m deal. Would I go alittle bit more for him if Waino is for sure retired? Yea probably to that $12m mark, but no with longer committed dollars. I could see doing something like a team/mutual option for '24 and even '25 attached to it, but not completely committing to him long term right off the bat.

That's kinda my point.  Coming off a really bad season in which he only threw 10 innings, he was able to get a 1 year, $8M deal from the Angels.  That to me is his floor, and I think that's probably on the low side of projection.  I think if you're getting a 1 year deal out of him it's going to be higher in terms of AAV, probably closer to $12M.  If you look at the 1 year deals being thrown out there last offseason (throwing out Thor and Kershaw), you had Greinke ($13M), James Paxton ($10M), Andrew Heaney ($8.5M), Tyler Anderson ($8M), and Corey Kluber ($8M) breaking the $8M mark.  Quintana was better this past season those players were coming off of when they got their new deals by just about every metric.

Teams don't pay for what they think they're getting, they pay for what the player already has done.  Quintana's asking price should be a multi-year deal for around $10M/year.  If he wants a higher AAV, he'll need to sacrifice years.  If he's more interested in years, than the AAV will go down.  Think anywhere between 1 year, $13M and 3 years, $24M is his range.  Think something like 2 years, $20M is a healthy compromise.

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2 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Have you guys seen the people floating a Sean Murphy trade out there for the Cardinals?

Honestly, he doesnt really do all that much for me, especially when they are floating Maysn Winn's name out there as part of the return.

That's how I feel too. I'd rather just pony up the bucks and sign Contreras. 

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10 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Have you guys seen the people floating a Sean Murphy trade out there for the Cardinals?

Honestly, he doesnt really do all that much for me, especially when they are floating Maysn Winn's name out there as part of the return.

I haven't, but Masyn Winn is pretty close to untouchable as far as prospects go.  I'm as guilty as anyone for overvaluing prospects, but you don't trade shortstops who can hit and play defense.

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11 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I haven't, but Masyn Winn is pretty close to untouchable as far as prospects go.  I'm as guilty as anyone for overvaluing prospects, but you don't trade shortstops who can hit and play defense.

Exactly what I’m thinking. 

If it’s for Gorman and a lesser add in, I’m thinking about it (might be a Brett Wallace situation all over again) but I’m not even sold on that 

My first focus would be Contreres

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12 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

At least we know he's coming back early this off-season. The handshake deal tells me it's going to be for a lot less than the $17.5M he got last off-season. 

Yeah.  Feels like a ~$10-12M deal sound about right.

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