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CWood21

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1 minute ago, hrubes20 said:

Seems like Greg Holland on a pillow contract and the Cards are a perfect match.  Makes so much dang sense.

You would think so, as he's likely staring at a 1-2 year deal which is perfect for us. All signs point him to us..

However, I'm not expecting it. The FO is being bullish on this BP...

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7 minutes ago, hrubes20 said:

Seems like Greg Holland on a pillow contract and the Cards are a perfect match.  Makes so much dang sense.

I don't see the Cardinals giving him the long-term deal he wants, and I'm not sure the Cardinals are going to cough up the draft pick for a short (1-2 year deal) either.  I just don't see the motivation for the Cardinals to do so.  I think they're going to continue to build this bullpen piece-by-piece.

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Just now, kgarrett12486 said:

Could see him piggy back some Wacha/Wainwright games too, throwing 2-3 innings...

That's probably something later on down the season.  He'll be on a pretty strict IP limit this season, which means if they want him to throw multiple innings it'll come down later in the year.  Probably see him pitch an inning every other day or every third day early on, and then they'll move him to a few innings over a few days, and then probably send him down to the minors to stretch out if that goes well.

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2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I don't see the Cardinals giving him the long-term deal he wants, and I'm not sure the Cardinals are going to cough up the draft pick for a short (1-2 year deal) either.  I just don't see the motivation for the Cardinals to do so.  I think they're going to continue to build this bullpen piece-by-piece.

Nor should they.  He overplayed his market and got burnt, if the reports are accurate that he rejected the same big deal that Wade Davis ended up getting (I have my doubts).  The draft pick isn't a very big deal anymore for a team like the Cards.  Aren't they (ridiculously) in the category where you only give up your 3rd pick for signing a qualified FA?  That bullpen, as constructed, is going to cost the Cards too many games.  Holland isn't perfect, but he'd be a pretty big upgrade there in a season in which the Cards obviously want to compete.  

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5 minutes ago, hrubes20 said:

Nor should they.  He overplayed his market and got burnt, if the reports are accurate that he rejected the same big deal that Wade Davis ended up getting (I have my doubts).  The draft pick isn't a very big deal anymore for a team like the Cards.  Aren't they (ridiculously) in the category where you only give up your 3rd pick for signing a qualified FA?  That bullpen, as constructed, is going to cost the Cards too many games.  Holland isn't perfect, but he'd be a pretty big upgrade there in a season in which the Cards obviously want to compete.  

Isn't a big deal for the Cardinals?  They're a team whose committed themselves to building from the draft in the last decade.  I think there's a level of buyer's remorse with Dexter Fowler, and I think if it weren't for the hacking punishment there'd be more talk about it.  I'm not opposed to signing him to a modest 2 year deal and then if things go sour, flip him at the deadline to a contender.

I guess it depends on where you think the Cardinals are on the contender-level.  I thought pre-Yu that they could compete for a NL Central title, but that signing probably solidifies them as the team to beat in the NL Central.  My eyes are on Milwaukee, and what they do.  If they end up trading for Chris Archer, I think we're probably closer to that 3rd team in the NL Central.  And if they trade for Archer and sign Cobb/Lynn, than I think we're solidly that 3rd team.

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Isn't a big deal for the Cardinals?  They're a team whose committed themselves to building from the draft in the last decade.  I think there's a level of buyer's remorse with Dexter Fowler, and I think if it weren't for the hacking punishment there'd be more talk about it.  I'm not opposed to signing him to a modest 2 year deal and then if things go sour, flip him at the deadline to a contender.

I guess it depends on where you think the Cardinals are on the contender-level.  I thought pre-Yu that they could compete for a NL Central title, but that signing probably solidifies them as the team to beat in the NL Central.  My eyes are on Milwaukee, and what they do.  If they end up trading for Chris Archer, I think we're probably closer to that 3rd team in the NL Central.  And if they trade for Archer and sign Cobb/Lynn, than I think we're solidly that 3rd team.

You're severely overstating the value of a 3rd round pick.  You don't lose your 1st rounder any more.  But the Cards are squarely in the WC picture.  All they have to do is get in, and anything can happen from there.  They really need bullpen help, and Holland would provide a definite upgrade.  He almost surely would come on a great deal at this point in the offseason, and would only cost a 3rd round pick to sign.  They only have Ozuna for 2 years, and Yadi/Waino are about done.  That's a deal they should absolutely make (all on the assumption that Holland would indeed come at a bargain at this point) to make themselves more competitive for the next 2 years.

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20 hours ago, hrubes20 said:

You're severely overstating the value of a 3rd round pick.  You don't lose your 1st rounder any more.  But the Cards are squarely in the WC picture.  All they have to do is get in, and anything can happen from there.  They really need bullpen help, and Holland would provide a definite upgrade.  He almost surely would come on a great deal at this point in the offseason, and would only cost a 3rd round pick to sign.  They only have Ozuna for 2 years, and Yadi/Waino are about done.  That's a deal they should absolutely make (all on the assumption that Holland would indeed come at a bargain at this point) to make themselves more competitive for the next 2 years.

Probably so, but I think the Cardinals didn't like the fact that they didn't pick until the 1st round and their draft was very conservative by their standards.  I'm just not sure the Cardinals are really in that WC picture as much as you do.  I think they'd need a few things to break right (i.e. Tommy Pham not be an illusion, Matt Carpenter bouncing back, staying relatively healthy, etc.) for them to do that.  I felt a LOT better before the Cubs signed Yu Darvish, and my confidence goes the other way if Milwaukee can improve their rotation.  I'm not opposed to Greg Holland, but there has to be significantly more value than the numbers I've seen thrown around with him.  I've heard 3 years, $52M for him which is too much for me.

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29 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Probably so, but I think the Cardinals didn't like the fact that they didn't pick until the 1st round and their draft was very conservative by their standards.  I'm just not sure the Cardinals are really in that WC picture as much as you do.  I think they'd need a few things to break right (i.e. Tommy Pham not be an illusion, Matt Carpenter bouncing back, staying relatively healthy, etc.) for them to do that.  I felt a LOT better before the Cubs signed Yu Darvish, and my confidence goes the other way if Milwaukee can improve their rotation.  I'm not opposed to Greg Holland, but there has to be significantly more value than the numbers I've seen thrown around with him.  I've heard 3 years, $52M for him which is too much for me.

For sure.  I can't see him getting anywhere near that at this point.  I was only speaking about a hypothetical situation where Holland could be brought in on a team-friendly deal.  2/$20 or something like that.

Also, I'm not sure I ever imagined I would be more optimistic about a Cardinals team than a legit Cards' fan, yet here we are.  Even with the bullpen as constructed, that still looks like a team in the 82-86 win range for me.  That's squarely in the WC hunt with the Brewers/Giants/Dbacks/Rockies and maybe the Mets if they can somehow keep their rotation on the mound.  The addition of Holland probably moves them closer to the mid-to-high portion of that range.  

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6 minutes ago, hrubes20 said:

For sure.  I can't see him getting anywhere near that at this point.  I was only speaking about a hypothetical situation where Holland could be brought in on a team-friendly deal.  2/$20 or something like that.

Also, I'm not sure I ever imagined I would be more optimistic about a Cardinals team than a legit Cards' fan, yet here we are.  Even with the bullpen as constructed, that still looks like a team in the 82-86 win range for me.  That's squarely in the WC hunt with the Brewers/Giants/Dbacks/Rockies and maybe the Mets if they can somehow keep their rotation on the mound.  The addition of Holland probably moves them closer to the mid-to-high portion of that range.  

I guess I'm not that optimistic that Holland's market has dropped that much.  I think the "worst case" scenario for him is he signs a big 1 year deal with a player/mutual option on Year 2 that pretty much guarantees him FA if he pitches well.  IF he was willing to do 2 year, $20M I'd do that but that's because I think you're getting good value there.

As for the 2018 Cardinals, I'm not sure that I'm pessimistic so much as bullish.  Last year, I felt like the Cardinals were relatively balanced as far as luck goes.  They got some good luck and bad luck.  And they still finished 9 games out of first place.  Figure a more improved Cubs team is probably closer to a 95+ win team even with my concerns about their bullpen, and that gap widens.  That 82-86 win projection seems fair, although I just don't think Holland really improves the team that much.

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The Twins gave up next to nothing to get SP Jake Odorizzi from the Rays. 

Sure would have liked to see us make that move. He would have given us quality innings as a #3 or #4. I'm still not sure where we're going to get some of these innings. I know they young guys, but with injuries that are inevitable and them all being on innings limits + the unknown of Wainwright and potentially Wacha it's gonna be interesting...

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