2023 Commanders OTAs, Minicamp & Training Camp

[turtle28]

On 8/25/2023 at 12:42 PM, offbyone said:

He isn't some established vet and he is missing a crap load of practice.  I am not sure he has really earned it just because he is more gifted physically than everyone else.

Just bc he had a bad knee injury w/ a torn ACL & patella tendon doesn't mean he isn't still the best DE we have. I mean take Sweat for ex. in comparison he'd been mostly healthy every year for 4 years and hasn't gotten more than 9 sacks in a season - which happens to be the one season in 2020 that he had Chase playing opposite him - Sweat is a good DE, but he hasn't even been on Orakpo’s level as a DE. 

Again, the only thing that's kept Chase down is the knee injury & a slow start to 2021 but he was still getting pressures, forcing turnovers and pushing the QBS over towards Sweat’s side so Sweat got a few sacks the first half of 2021.

I still think Chase is better & I think it will be proven this year.

[turtle28]

17 hours ago, Thaiphoon said:

Wait...you're telling me that Chase is great (but just is unfortunately recovering from knee surgery) but Sweat has been underwhelming? Did I read that right?

I mean, just on sacks alone, Chase isn't anywhere close to Sweat.

Sweat had 21 sacks his first 3 years.

Chase had... 9

"Oh but Thai, Chase can't help that he was injured and missed most of his 3rd year." 

Fair enough. Then let's compare them on a per game rate. 

 

Sacks

Sweat has a rate of 0.49

Chase has a rate of 0.33

Sweat wins hands down

 

Tackles (combined)

Sweat = 2.79

Chase = 2.77

Roughly even there so it's a push

 

TFL

Sweat = 0.62

Chase = 0.48

Sweat wins

 

FFs

Sweat = 0.11

Chase = 0.22

Hey look, Chase wins at something!

 

Pressures (this is Knock Downs + Hurries + all sack plays)

Sweat = 1.91

Chase = 1.4

Sweat wins again

 

 

It's good that you're using your own eyeball metric, because almost every actual recorded metric that we can measure a DE by, Sweat either ties Chase or comes out ahead (sometimes far ahead).

Don't get me wrong. I'm HOPING you're right about him by the end of the season. But I cannot get onboard the "Chase is the best DE on this team" train at the present time. 

I would say that's a much larger sample size of Sweat being good, but not great which isn't good for him as he's 3 years older than Chase & is almost for sure done developing. 

So yeah, the knee injury kept Chase from proving he is better than Sweat, that's true but you’re basing Chase’s sample size on his rookie year & 1/2 of his 2nd year where yes he didn't take the next step but neither did Sweat & Chase also had 2 sacks taken from him in bogus roughing the passer penalties.

* Chase has only played 23 games

* Sweat’s sample size is 59 games where he's never had a double-digit sack season in 4 seasons.

Also, something to consider is in 2021, 4 of Sweat’s 5 sacks were in the 9 games he played with Chase opposite him who had more attention paid to him. In 2019 as a rookie, he had 7 sacks but he had Kerrigan playing opposite him getting most of the attention from opposing blocking schemes. Last year he had 8 sacks when he didn't have Chase opposite him to take double teams away from him.

The bottom line which at least we all agree with is that we don’t know if either guy will break out this year, if Chase will, if Sweat will or if they’ll both be underwhelming. It’s all TBD.

Edited August 26, 2023 by turtle28

[turtle28]

4 hours ago, Troublez said:

@turtle28 thanks for the input! Until this dude shows up to OTAs, takes care of his body (which he just started taking seriously - maybe), and demonstrates an ability to overcome "minor" injuries, I won't get off this "immature BS." There isn't one thing he's done differently this year to suggest that he's matured at all....

This is why he is below average NFL starter. Because he doesn't put the effort into respecting the process that all superstars must go through. Talent means next to **** if your culture or maturity is poor. He needs to grow up and act like a professional.

He’s been working his butt off for 2 years after a really bad knee injury to be ready to play for not only himself but for DC & this fan base. He takes care of his body, it’s not like he’s fat or something? He’s in phenomenal shape, if you’re implying that Chase is lazy and doesn’t work out, I don’t think that anyone would agree with that. Getting injured has nothing to do with maturity or immaturity, that doesn’t even make sense to me, at any time a player can get a knee injury or a stinger.

I don’t agree at all that he hasn’t put the work in, everyone when asked says he has this year. He put the work in last year too but his knee just wasn’t right bc he had two injuries in the same knee.

I think he’s grown a lot the last two years and so far he’s shown that but he can’t show anyone that he is who we thought he was until he plays and proves it to people like me who think he will and people like you that think he’ll never be what we thought we were getting when we drafted him. That part is TBD.

[Slappy Mc]

5 hours ago, Troublez said:

@turtle28 thanks for the input! Until this dude shows up to OTAs, takes care of his body (which he just started taking seriously - maybe), and demonstrates an ability to overcome "minor" injuries, I won't get off this "immature BS." There isn't one thing he's done differently this year to suggest that he's matured at all....

This is why he is below average NFL starter. Because he doesn't put the effort into respecting the process that all superstars must go through. Talent means next to **** if your culture or maturity is poor. He needs to grow up and act like a professional.

He has a great opportunity this year to prove a lot of these narratives false. If he doesn't show up week 1 ready to go, IMO, that is very telling. We really need him to produce. Hopefully he comes out and does that.

[Slappy Mc]

5 hours ago, turtle28 said:

I would say that's a much larger sample size of Sweat being good, but not great which isn't good for him as he's 3 years older than Chase & is almost for sure done developing. 

So yeah, the knee injury kept Chase from proving he is better than Sweat, that's true but you’re basing Chase’s sample size on his rookie year & 1/2 of his 2nd year where yes he didn't take the next step but neither did Sweat & Chase also had 2 sacks taken from him in bogus roughing the passer penalties.

* Chase has only played 23 games

* Sweat’s sample size is 59 games where he's never had a double-digit sack season in 4 seasons.

Also, something to consider is in 2021, 4 of Sweat’s 5 sacks were in the 9 games he played with Chase opposite him who had more attention paid to him. In 2019 as a rookie, he had 7 sacks but he had Kerrigan playing opposite him getting most of the attention from opposing blocking schemes. Last year he had 8 sacks when he didn't have Chase opposite him to take double teams away from him.

The bottom line which at least we all agree with is that we don’t know if either guy will break out this year, if Chase will, if Sweat will or if they’ll both be underwhelming. It’s all TBD.

Bro...

Chase Young, the all generational prospect, was added to a very good defensive front of Sweat, Allen and Payne. You want to say that Sweat was benefiting from Young without acknowledging that he was supposed to DOMINATE his first year because of the talent AROUND HIM and he didn't. Make all the excuses you want for him. Change the metrics to fit whatever you want. I am pretty much over you diminishing other people who are performing, who are healthy, who are fitting into the schemes for the team, while propping up Chase Young who hasn't done those things. Until Chase performs like you are touting him to be, I suggest you remain cautiously optimistic instead of spouting your beliefs like they are facts.

So many people have shown you the facts and you refuse to see them. Cool. I have been a homer several times in my life, but you have to understand that until Chase does the things you expect him to do, you have nothing to back up your beliefs. You believing in him is great. I'm sure he would be very happy to hear your support, but from a football standpoint, he needs to be on the field and produce. Until then, he is no better than what you are doing right now, cheerleading.

[turtle28]

2 hours ago, Slappy Mc said:

Bro...

Chase Young, the all generational prospect, was added to a very good defensive front of Sweat, Allen and Payne. You want to say that Sweat was benefiting from Young without acknowledging that he was supposed to DOMINATE his first year because of the talent AROUND HIM and he didn't. Make all the excuses you want for him. Change the metrics to fit whatever you want. I am pretty much over you diminishing other people who are performing, who are healthy, who are fitting into the schemes for the team, while propping up Chase Young who hasn't done those things. Until Chase performs like you are touting him to be, I suggest you remain cautiously optimistic instead of spouting your beliefs like they are facts.

So many people have shown you the facts and you refuse to see them. Cool. I have been a homer several times in my life, but you have to understand that until Chase does the things you expect him to do, you have nothing to back up your beliefs. You believing in him is great. I'm sure he would be very happy to hear your support, but from a football standpoint, he needs to be on the field and produce. Until then, he is no better than what you are doing right now, cheerleading.

Bro, if Sweat had shown me in his 59 games played that he’s better than Brian Orakpo, I might agree with you but he hasn’t. 

Let's not forget that Sweat was also supposed to be a top 10 pick - especially after he ran a 4.4 at the combine at 6’6, 260 pounds - the only reason he fell to us at 26 was because the doctors found a heart ailment. 

I don't know how it's factual when you're comparing a guy playing 24 games to 59. That's all I'm saying. The sample sizes don't add up. Chase hasn't had 4 years of playing yet. It's not an equal comparison.

[Slappy Mc]

3 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Bro, if Sweat had shown me in his 59 games played that he’s better than Brian Orakpo, I might agree with you but he hasn’t. 

Let's not forget that Sweat was also supposed to be a top 10 pick - especially after he ran a 4.4 at the combine at 6’6, 260 pounds - the only reason he fell to us at 26 was because the doctors found a heart ailment. 

I don't know how it's factual when you're comparing a guy playing 24 games to 59. That's all I'm saying. The sample sizes don't add up. Chase hasn't had 4 years of playing yet. It's not an equal comparison.

Here is the thing. I'm not sitting here touting Sweat to be "better than Brian Orakpo". I never even mentioned Orakpo. On exactly the same metric (stats/game) Sweat beats Young's stats, sometimes substantially better. There are some areas where Young has been better than Sweat, but the biggest area that you seem to be "comparing" is games played. That's actually a negative for Chase. Montez Sweat has been available for 59 out of 66 games. Chase Young has been available for 27 out of 50 games. Whether you like it or not, health is something that determines the value of ones career. Players who get hurt, don't get contract extensions. Not Chase's fault he got hurt, but it counts against him. Also if you notice, the difference between number of total games for each player is 16 games or 1 full season. The difference between the players stat totals is so substantial, that Montez Sweat could sit out the entire season and Chase Young could not equate the stats Montez has put up (barring a historic season).

Again, I am not touting Sweat to be the next best thing. I'm not comparing him to Orakpo, Kerrigan, Mann or Manley. I have stated many times, I expect neither Sweat nor Young to be on this team next year (barring something absolutely spectacular). When they paid both Daron Payne and Jon Allen, the DEs' chances of getting resigned went down significantly IMO. With that said, Montez Sweat is currently our best defensive end and its not close. I'm not diminishing Chase's "potential," but we need to call a spade a spade here.

I'll go back to trying to ignore blatant disrespect of performing players for "our favorite hometown players who went to our favorite college" now.

[Thaiphoon]

On 8/26/2023 at 1:22 PM, turtle28 said:

I would say that's a much larger sample size of Sweat being good, but not great which isn't good for him as he's 3 years older than Chase & is almost for sure done developing. 

So yeah, the knee injury kept Chase from proving he is better than Sweat, that's true but you’re basing Chase’s sample size on his rookie year & 1/2 of his 2nd year where yes he didn't take the next step but neither did Sweat & Chase also had 2 sacks taken from him in bogus roughing the passer penalties.

 

You keep talking about "sample size" without realizing this is on a per game basis. The fact that Chase has fewer games should be working IN his favor (*) when comparing on a per game basis. It's glaring that it's not.

And in that shortened season for Chase, Sweat also got injured the next game.

Know how many sacks Chase got in 9 games? 1.5 

How many did Sweat get in only one more game? 5

Quote

 

* Chase has only played 23 games

* Sweat’s sample size is 59 games where he's never had a double-digit sack season in 4 seasons.

 

See my earlier statement above. The per game averages should be helping Chase with fewer games. They aren't. Which makes it worse.

Also, Chase hasn't had a double digit sack season in 3 seasons. But what Sweat has done is put together two seasons with more sacks (9 and 8  )than Chase has in his best season (7.5).

Quote

Also, something to consider is in 2021, 4 of Sweat’s 5 sacks were in the 9 games he played with Chase opposite him who had more attention paid to him. In 2019 as a rookie, he had 7 sacks but he had Kerrigan playing opposite him getting most of the attention from opposing blocking schemes. Last year he had 8 sacks when he didn't have Chase opposite him to take double teams away from him.

So you're saying that Sweat, when healthy, is a reliable 8 sack a year DE? That seems to be much better than Chase, no? Especially given that in the 9 games that Chase had Sweat taking attention away, he only managed 1.5 (spare me the "taken away" comments - a lot of sacks are taken away from players and 'almost sacks' don't count)

Quote

The bottom line which at least we all agree with is that we don’t know if either guy will break out this year, if Chase will, if Sweat will or if they’ll both be underwhelming. It’s all TBD.

Sure. I'd like both to take off and go HAM. I'm just saying that at the present time Chase is our second best DE by any metric you wish to measure them by.

 

(*) if I play in 10 games and get 5 sacks, my sack rate is .50 ... but if I go another 10 games and I only get 3 sacks in those games, my sack rate drops to .40. But if in those extra 10 games, I get 8 sacks, my sack rate goes to .65.  It's easier to move the needle more with fewer games played 

 

[Thaiphoon]

23 hours ago, Slappy Mc said:

He has a great opportunity this year to prove a lot of these narratives false. If he doesn't show up week 1 ready to go, IMO, that is very telling. We really need him to produce. Hopefully he comes out and does that.

Amen. If he's on the roster, I want him to succeed. I want him to wreck offenses. I want every one of our players to dominate. 

[lavar703]

So if I were Rivera I would see if someone is willing to part with a late-round pick for Brissett. I’m not sure if it’s this offense or what but Fromm appears to have grasped it much better and honestly looks like the better player right now. 
 

Also, I’d cut Braeden Daniels. I don’t care he was a 4th round pick. He has been so bad that there’s simply no reason to give him a roster spot. Keep Brooks and try to get Daniels to the PS and if someone snatches him so be it. 
 

Mitchell Tinsley needs to make this roster over Kemp and Milne. He’s flat out better. There’s no excuse. Also, Kaz Allen would come down with a mysterious injury if it were me and he’d be an IR stash. They’re also going to end up cutting Patterson who is our second best back. He’s a better pure runner than Gibson. 

If Quan Martin wasn’t a second-round pick he wouldn’t be on this team. He has a very long way to go. 
 

And lastly, Stromberg is a beast. Start him and move Gates to guard. 

[Slappy Mc]

4 hours ago, lavar703 said:

So if I were Rivera I would see if someone is willing to part with a late-round pick for Brissett. I’m not sure if it’s this offense or what but Fromm appears to have grasped it much better and honestly looks like the better player right now. 
 

Also, I’d cut Braeden Daniels. I don’t care he was a 4th round pick. He has been so bad that there’s simply no reason to give him a roster spot. Keep Brooks and try to get Daniels to the PS and if someone snatches him so be it. 
 

Mitchell Tinsley needs to make this roster over Kemp and Milne. He’s flat out better. There’s no excuse. Also, Kaz Allen would come down with a mysterious injury if it were me and he’d be an IR stash. They’re also going to end up cutting Patterson who is our second best back. He’s a better pure runner than Gibson. 

If Quan Martin wasn’t a second-round pick he wouldn’t be on this team. He has a very long way to go. 
 

And lastly, Stromberg is a beast. Start him and move Gates to guard. 

These are some good takes. 

I think Brissett is a better QB than Fromm. I try not to put too much stock into a guy lighting up practice squad guys. I like Brissett to be the #2. 

While possible, I don't think Braeden Daniels gets cut. Maybe the scenario you said for Kaz Allen happens and we can stash him on IR, but you don't cut a 4th round draft pick in preseason. 

Tinsley absolutely has to be on the roster. He has flashed consistently in camp and preseason games. I'd be fine keeping 6 WRs (Terry, Jahan, Curtis, Dyami, Mitchell and Kazmir).

I don't agree that Patterson is our 2nd best RB. I expected him to get cut last year, tbh. He is buried on the depth chart. There is a possibility he beats out Jonathan Williams, but he won't be in the top 3. Most likely a PS guy. (If possible)

I also am unsure what you are seeing from Quan that would make you think he shouldn't be on the team. He flashed athleticism, play recognition, ball skills and yes his inexperience. I was not, and still am not, a fan of them using their first two picks on DBs, but I absolutely think Quan deserves to be on the roster. 

TBH, I think they don't have a lot of options with Nick Gates. I think his fit is almost exclusively at Center. Stromberg will probably see some time at one of the guard positions, but most likely won't be the other way around.