WAY too early 2023 passing stat projections

[AZBearsFan]

Being as bullish on Fields as I am, I wanted to put something together that I can use as a reasonable baseline for what I expect to see from from the passing game this year statistically as of today (5/31/23). 

A few disclaimers:

-This assumes no injuries and that Fields takes all our QB snaps. Though it’s not realistic that everyone stays healthy we don’t know where injuries will pop up and for what duration they’ll impact the week-to-week roster. 

-I used 31 passes per game for Fields. I came to this by averaging passes/game for the most stylistically similar QBs in the league IMO (Hurts, Allen and LJax) and then adjusted down slightly (those 3 averaged 32.2 passes/game in 2022).

-I used each named player’s career averages for catch percentage and yards per reception. For those projections not for a specific player I used ballpark figures (WRs 60% catch rate, 13.0 ypc; RBs 80% catch rate, 8.0 ypc). For target share I winged it a bit more.

-Fields’ completion percentage here was not predetermined but rather a byproduct of catch rates and the target share I applied to the receivers. Coming in where it did would have been 22nd in the NFL in 2022 (reasonably conservative by that measure, but also showing growth both in hitting more of the “gimme” throws and an improvement in receiving talent on the roster). YPA at 7.5 (up from a 7.0 career mark) here is nothing more than a byproduct of completing more of his attempted passes.

-Fields’ TD percentage I placed at 5.0%. This shows some regression from last year’s 5.3% due to a higher volume of passing overall, most notably expected in the “gimme” range. 5.0% ranked 10th in the league in 2022.

-Fields’ INT% I factored at 2.5%. This is also reflective of a higher passing volume inclusive of a higher frequency of taking the “gimme” completions available to him. Improved targets will undoubtedly help, and I think playing with the lead more in 2023 will be a factor that reduces risky throws as well. 2.5% was 24th in the league in 2022 and represents an improvement in year 3 but still shows room for growth and Fields’ big game hunter tendencies.

 

The receiver projections:

DJ Moore (136 targets): 80/1149/7

Darnell Mooney (93 targets): 56/670/3

Chase Claypool (85 targets): 48/635/4

Cole Kmet (77 targets): 52/521/6

Robert Tonyan (34 targets): 26/278/2

Other WRs (43 targets): 26/335/2

All RBs (59 targets): 47/378/2

 

The QB projection:

Justin Fields: 335/527 (63.5%) 3966 yds (7.5 ypa), 26 TD, 13 INT, 92.6 QB Rating 

 

I came into this without any kind of agenda as to where anyone’s numbers would end up here, but what I see here (again, assuming health for all), is a nice reasonable target for Fields’ growth. You’ll notice that these numbers ARE NOT year 3 Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts numbers, and they don’t have to be. But, if Fields can hit these marks on top of factoring in the run game weapon he is and probably always will be, there will be ZERO doubt as to his franchise QB status IMO.

[AZBearsFan]

After putting these together, I think Mooney’s career ypc (12.0) is probably too low for his 2023 role, where he’ll go back to his 2021 role as a complementary WR (was 13.0 ypc in 2021). To that end, his total yards number in my projection is probably a bit low for where I’d expect it to be at his projected target share.

[JibjeResearch]

The Bears would be in the playoff if Fields plays like that lolz😁

[StLunatic88]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

Justin Fields: 335/527 (63.5%) 3966 yds (7.5 ypa), 26 TD, 13 INT, 92.6 QB Rating 

I’m less looking to attack the 70% bump in passing yards, and more going to question the 65% increase in pass attempts. It’s just hard to see our offense changing that drastically, that quickly. 

It will obviously be an increase from last year. But even saying a substantial increase in pass attempts, a 40% increase would be high for that, wouldn’t even get us to 450 attempts

Edited May 31, 2023 by StLunatic88

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

I’m less looking to attack the 70% bump in passing yards, and more going to question the 65% increase in pass attempts. It’s just hard to see our offense changing that drastically, that quickly. 

It will obviously be an increase from last year. But even saying a substantial increase in pass attempts, a 40% increase would be high for that, wouldn’t even get us to 450 attempts

Good point, and a completely fair one. I don’t think it’s as seismic of a philosophical shift as you might think at first glance.

318 pass attempts for Fields last year includes 2 missed games where the projection has him playing all 17. He averaged 21.2 attempts/game last year and 22.55 after the mini bye. To go from the post-mini bye frequency to 31 passes/game is only about 2 more passes per quarter. That’s not crazy.

To start, less sacks (hopefully) because of improved OL play should also mean more passes, since sacks can only happen on called passes. Additionally, with expected improved OL play, there will also be a spectrum of pass plays (and maybe a big one) they can call now that they just couldn’t last year because we had no chance to block it. I think we were as one dimensional as we were last year out of necessity, not by desire. This year should offer less of that.

Also, Fields and Flus have talked since the season ended about taking the gimmes. A lot of that IMO will be evasion dump offs that were scramble runs last year. Last year Fields ran on them often times because he had to run. We couldn’t protect him in the pocket, and when he was able to escape nobody was open anyway. I think there will be a lot more opportunities for Fields to run to pass this year on those plays than last year. To that same end, by having more talent overall in the passing game we should also be able to sustain some more drives. We were 30th in the league in offensive plays run in 2022. I think we’ll run more plays on offense in general, which will lead to more passing attempts organically. To get to even league average in terms of plays run from where we were last year we’ll add 5 additional offensive plays per game. At least a few of those will be passes. 

[Ty21]

That’s about as good as you can ask for. Tack on another 400 yards or so scrambling and it’s a damn good year for qb1

[AZBearsFan]

7 hours ago, Ty21 said:

That’s about as good as you can ask for. Tack on another 400 yards or so scrambling and it’s a damn good year for qb1

I think so. None of this projects him to all of a sudden be an elite passer - just a capable one by modern standards. For reference, in 2022:

-Yardage would’ve been 10th (16th in yards per game)

-TDs would’ve been 8th

-INTs would’ve been 6th most

-Comp % would’ve been 22nd 

-QB Rating would’ve been 12th

Strictly as a passer, this outcome would make him a little above a middle tier starter overall. That level of passer pared with the elite run tool though is what would really elevate him overall. I want more than this as a passer, but I won’t let myself expect that. If he’s able to exceed this as a passer then that would put him in the Madden Create-A-Player tier IMO. That’s pipe dream stuff for another thread though lol. 

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

This is a very satisfactory analysis as it's both a realistic if optimistic outcome, but also having Fields just shy of 4000yds would be hilarious for the takes that would come out of it ("He's not even a 4000yd passer!" "the Bears have never had a ____") so I like it from both a comedic and rational method point of view.

[Sugashane]

So I did my projection and came out with this.

 

Passing
 

Comp - 305 (14th).... Att - 478 (14th)... Comp % - 64% (21st)... Yards - 3441 (15th)... YPA... 7.2 (14th)... Yards/ Game - 202.4 (25th)... TDs - 23 (13th)... INT - 12 (7th)... Sacks - 32 (14th)... QB Rating - 90.1 (18th)

This also comes out to a TD% of 4.9% which was 12th last year, an INT% of 2.5% which was 10th highest, a Sack % of 6.8% for 15th highest (all based off 2022 stats)

Rushing

Attempts - 156... Yards - 1060... TDs - 7... Fumbles - 10

That is still 9.2 attempts per game because I think Fields will still pull it down too quickly 1-2 times per game, will have several designed runs per game, and will break 2-3 potential sacks for runs. Also I want to note that Fields' fumbles dropped a lot here but he only had 5 over his last 8 games. I think that Eberflus and Getsy really will focus on ball control and the three points of contact. Fields will continue to take on the coaching, and hopefully getting the ball out quicker plus better protection means less surprise hits for him in the pocket.

 

Receiving

Targets - 1... Catches - 1... Yards- 5... TDs - 1

Zach Wilson got a 2 yard TD reception last year, Fields outdoes that with a 5 yard TD rec. Wilson doesn't have the luxury of having a dual threat HB like Roschon Johnson, so it only makes sense. 😁

 

So in all Fields accounts for 4506 yards, 31 TDs, 16 turnovers (2 lost out of 16 is really lucky, so I think 3 lost out of 10 is still pretty lucky). That puts him at the 9th most total yards in the league, though to be fair Hurts would have eclipsed that if he didn't miss some time, Tua would have beaten that too, but he has had constant injury concerns as well. I'd much rather see more of those yards come from passing than rushing but if there is consistent progression then who cares? This is a run-first team until it actually changes and I care more about the PPG than I do the means by which the team puts those points up.

[StLunatic88]

21 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

318 pass attempts for Fields last year includes 2 missed games where the projection has him playing all 17.

I understand what you are saying, but I also think assuming Fields wont miss any time is also a bit of a hope.

Not saying he is injury prone or anything, but the reality of a running QB is that they will likely miss 2-10 quarters, even in the best seasons. 

[StLunatic88]

If we are talking predictions, this is where Im at right now

Passing:

1. Justin Fields - 15 Games, 280/430 (65.1%) for 3225 yards, 27 TDs/ 15 INTs
2. P.J. Walker - 3 Games, 30/48 (62.5%) for 350 yards, 3 TDs/ 3 INTs

Rushing:

1. Justin Fields - 105 Attempts for 850 yards (8.1 per), 7 TDs/ 4 FUM
2. D'Onta Foreman - 130 Attempts for 675 yards (5.2 per) 7 TDs/ 2 FUM (Traded at the Deadline)
3. Khalil Herbert - 150 Attempts for 650 yards (4.3 per) 4 TDs/ 2 FUM
4. Roschon Johnson - 120 Attempts for 600 yards (5.0 per) 4 TDs/ 2 FUM
5. Velus Jones - 20 Attempts for 260 yards (13.0 per) 2 TDs/ 1 FUM

Receiving:

1. DJ Moore - 85 Catches/ 125 Targets, 1100 yards (12.2 per), 11 TDs
2. Chase Claypool - 46 Catches/ 73 Targets, 650 yards (14.1 per), 7 TDs
3. Darnell Mooney - 58 Catches/ 85 Targets, 650 yards (11.2 per), 4 TDs
4. Cole Kmet - 45 Catches/ 73 Targets, 500 yards (11.1 per), 3 TDs
5. Khalil Herbert - 20 Catches/ 30 Targets. 150 yards (7.5 per) 0 TDs
6. Tyler Scott - 11 Catches/ 17 Targets, 150 yards (13.6 per), 1 TD
7. Velus Jones - 14 Catches/ 24 Targets, 145 yards (10.4 per) 1 TD
8. Robert Tonyan - 15 Catches/ 24 Targets, 130 yards (8.7 per) 3 TDs

This leaves us with a Top 20 passing offense (in yards) and we pad the passing TD stats a bit for Fields, where they used to be rushing TDs, Now Tonyan and Claypool are the beneficiaries down inside the 10. It is a good step forward, as the OL starts to come together, and Fields confirms that he is a passer in this league. Moore shows hes a true #1, but we are still kind of stuck in Limbo with Claypool and Mooney as they are both solid 2s, but leaves us with a tough decision to make for the future. Scott shows a bit of promise, while Velus is still underwhelming, but they are weapons on ST. Not too much receiving out of the Backfield, and Tonyon stymies Kmet's production this year, but he is still a solid weapon at TE.

While We are once again the top Rushing offense, it is spread it around plenty (as well as shipping off Foreman for a mid rounder to a Contender). Herbert seems to be JAG, and Roschon shows off what we all like in him; Solid rushing, and great pass protection. Probably time to switch gears at RB, and pair someone more dynamic with RJ.

The offense takes a step in the right direction, while still needing some refinement (and explosion) for it to fully blossom. 

The Defense is still a mess, as we are still way behind when it comes to the Front 4

[Bigbear72]

31 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

If we are talking predictions, this is where Im at right now

Passing:

1. Justin Fields - 15 Games, 280/430 (65.1%) for 3225 yards, 27 TDs/ 15 INTs
2. P.J. Walker - 3 Games, 30/48 (62.5%) for 350 yards, 3 TDs/ 3 INTs

Rushing:

1. Justin Fields - 105 Attempts for 850 yards (8.1 per), 7 TDs/ 4 FUM
2. D'Onta Foreman - 130 Attempts for 675 yards (5.2 per) 7 TDs/ 2 FUM (Traded at the Deadline)
3. Khalil Herbert - 150 Attempts for 650 yards (4.3 per) 4 TDs/ 2 FUM
4. Roschon Johnson - 120 Attempts for 600 yards (5.0 per) 4 TDs/ 2 FUM
5. Velus Jones - 20 Attempts for 260 yards (13.0 per) 2 TDs/ 1 FUM

Receiving:

1. DJ Moore - 85 Catches/ 125 Targets, 1100 yards (12.2 per), 11 TDs
2. Chase Claypool - 46 Catches/ 73 Targets, 650 yards (14.1 per), 7 TDs
3. Darnell Mooney - 58 Catches/ 85 Targets, 650 yards (11.2 per), 4 TDs
4. Cole Kmet - 45 Catches/ 73 Targets, 500 yards (11.1 per), 3 TDs
5. Khalil Herbert - 20 Catches/ 30 Targets. 150 yards (7.5 per) 0 TDs
6. Tyler Scott - 11 Catches/ 17 Targets, 150 yards (13.6 per), 1 TD
7. Velus Jones - 14 Catches/ 24 Targets, 145 yards (10.4 per) 1 TD
8. Robert Tonyan - 15 Catches/ 24 Targets, 130 yards (8.7 per) 3 TDs

This leaves us with a Top 20 passing offense (in yards) and we pad the passing TD stats a bit for Fields, where they used to be rushing TDs, Now Tonyan and Claypool are the beneficiaries down inside the 10. It is a good step forward, as the OL starts to come together, and Fields confirms that he is a passer in this league. Moore shows hes a true #1, but we are still kind of stuck in Limbo with Claypool and Mooney as they are both solid 2s, but leaves us with a tough decision to make for the future. Scott shows a bit of promise, while Velus is still underwhelming, but they are weapons on ST. Not too much receiving out of the Backfield, and Tonyon stymies Kmet's production this year, but he is still a solid weapon at TE.

While We are once again the top Rushing offense, it is spread it around plenty (as well as shipping off Foreman for a mid rounder to a Contender). Herbert seems to be JAG, and Roschon shows off what we all like in him; Solid rushing, and great pass protection. Probably time to switch gears at RB, and pair someone more dynamic with RJ.

The offense takes a step in the right direction, while still needing some refinement (and explosion) for it to fully blossom. 

The Defense is still a mess, as we are still way behind when it comes to the Front 4

Not nitpicking at all, just curious though. Is there a reason you have Herbert with 20 catches but don't have Johnson listed with any considering Herbert traditionally isn't a receiving back and Johnson is?

[StLunatic88]

15 minutes ago, Bigbear72 said:

Not nitpicking at all, just curious though. Is there a reason you have Herbert with 20 catches but don't have Johnson listed with any considering Herbert traditionally isn't a receiving back and Johnson is?

Couple of reasons. I don’t think the RB spot is going to be huge in the passing game this year. Those dump offs will turn into runs, and when they are dumped, it’s going to be the safety valves of Kmet and Moore coming back to him. (I think Claypool takes over Kmet role last year and he is fighting to make space in this offense)

And while he can be a receiver, Roschon isn’t really a “receiving back” either. He hasn’t had 15 catches in a season since he was a Freshman. He is a great pass blocker, which makes him valuable on passing downs, but I think he needs to work on being a receiver. I’m sure he will have catches, but not enough to really. 

I’m sure he will have some receptions, but honestly that was kind of an “overall RB” projection there. Not that it’s all that much in the first place. 

[AZBearsFan]

19 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

I understand what you are saying, but I also think assuming Fields wont miss any time is also a bit of a hope.

Not saying he is injury prone or anything, but the reality of a running QB is that they will likely miss 2-10 quarters, even in the best seasons. 

I don’t disagree. I qualified in the OP that this all assumed health for everyone and that that aspect of the projection wasn’t necessarily realistic. I’m sure some of the skills guys will miss some time too. Hopefully he gets a 4Q or two off because we’re well ahead at some point also.

Specific to Fields though, I think the hope and desire is that he turns back from being a running QB (really only a 2022 thing in his personal history) to a QB who can also run this year which, if it plays out that way, should lessen some of that risk. 

Edited June 2, 2023 by AZBearsFan

[Sugashane]

I'll throw out my guesses out on rushing too.

 

Fields - 156 attempts for 1060 yards (6.8 YPA) - 7 TDs - 10 fumbles (7 from the pocket, 3 while actually rushing)

Herbert - 185 attempts for 870 yards (4.7 YPA) - 3 TDs - 2 fumbles

Foreman - 138 attempts for 594 yards (4.3 YPA) - 6 TDs - 1 fumble

Johnson - 93 attempts for 362 yards (3.9 YPA) - 2 TDs - 1 fumble

Jones - 9 attempts for 83 yards (9.2 YPA) - 0 TDs - 1 fumble

Scott - 4 attempts for 48 yards (12 YPA) - 0 TDs - 0 fumbles

Others - 12 attempts for 37 yards (3.1 YPA) - 1 TD - 0 fumbles (from rushing attempts only)

 

While I am not overly happy about the idea, I think the run game is run through Fields still. He gets about 9 attempts per game with about 3 attempts per week coming from scrambles on pass plays (one per week on average likely from pulling it and running too early), and about 6 rushes from calls and option plays. I think Herbert consistently makes solid runs. He does not show out like he is a star but is a clear benefactor to the defense being forced to focus on Fields' rushing ability. He at least makes the loss of Montgomery far easier to accept as he outplays Monty's level again (though Monty is in DET too). Foreman does really well, actually may outperform Herbert in production but his YPA suffers due to several short yardage attempts. Most of his TDs are from 2 yards or less, multiple times he gets the "and inches" carries. He is a tough runner who constantly falls forward, and while he doesn't get the same chunk plays he also rarely gets stuffed at the line. Either Herbert or Johnson misses 2 games. Johnson's stats look poor but we see a "tale of the two halves" kind of story with him. I think there is an adjustment period and over the first 8 games he looks rough, but as he adjusts to the speed of the game he plays significantly better in the second half. He will be the one the running game has drama with over, with meathead fans specifically. His first half has them calling for him to be benched or even cut, then when his second half production comes about there will be little note of it from them. Most of us are comfortable with a Herbert/Johnson backfield being sent out in 2024 though. Jones gets 2-3 chunk runs and several get stuffed for 3 yards or less, but the distraction from those big runs is invaluable with him as he is a frequent decoy. A lot of motions with him as a jet sweep option. Scott gets one huge run and 3 small ones, he gets more dump offs than actual runs. As for the others there will be a few backward passes or even a TE run from Kmet. Claypool gets one run as well. Overall only 2-3 make a good gain but enough to keep defenses honest.

 

This puts the Bears as the top rushing attack in the league again, and I think the attempts stay near the same as last year due to the offense having less short drives and a better passing attack to balance things some. Having an actual 11 personnel group that threatens all levels of the field makes the running game easier as well.