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2018 Free Agency targets


AZBearsFan

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4 minutes ago, TankWilliams said:

Yes, but would those numbers scale with more targets?  Teams would certainly cue in on him and put the top CB on him if that were the case.

Honestly if Goff hit him on, by my count, 9 deep throws that he flat-out missed those numbers would be even better.

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1 minute ago, G08 said:

Honestly if Goff hit him on, by my count, 9 deep throws that he flat-out missed those numbers would be even better.

Right, but thats not really my question.  QB's will ALWAYS miss on deep targets.  Brett Favre wasn't out there hitting every single deep pass he made.  What I mean is, if he was targeted like a #1 receiver, do you think his productivity would have been the same?  Would he have still been as efficient as a target?

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Ah, lets face it fellas, we've all talked ourselves into some pretty average options as gold here. It's like buying a car and saying "hey, maybe the head gasket's not that bad"

My meatball math says the Bears need either Watkins or Robinson, or like 3 2nd tier guys with potential, just to get to average. 

8-8 and we'll be happy for it. 

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Watkins would be a hr swing and one i can really get behind.  Their really is no doubt that Watkins fits the mold you would imagine that Nagy truly covets.  Still would like to add Wilson or maybe Moncrief too.  Whenever Sammy has been on the field he has definitely produced.  The issue with Sammy has always been health.  But getting Sammy and a healthy Kevin White could really force defenses to back the extra man out of the box and allow Howard to really get into the 2nd level.

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8 minutes ago, TankWilliams said:

Right, but thats not really my question.  QB's will ALWAYS miss on deep targets.  Brett Favre wasn't out there hitting every single deep pass he made.  What I mean is, if he was targeted like a #1 receiver, do you think his productivity would have been the same?  Would he have still been as efficient as a target?

I don't know how to answer that... if Goff was more accurate on those deep balls those numbers would elevate so even if he was targeted more and there were some more misses, those chunk plays would keep those stats high. I re-watched the Rams/Eagles game and counted 4 snaps where Watkins was open and Goff didn't see him (could be that it was late in the progression, I don't really know).

 

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18 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said:

Ah, lets face it fellas, we've all talked ourselves into some pretty average options as gold here. It's like buying a car and saying "hey, maybe the head gasket's not that bad"

That's all free agency is: overpaying for guys who are hitting the market for a reason.

Don't get me wrong, ascending players can come from free agency (Hicks) and players can be found who could be very nice additions (Watkins), but for the most part it's like paying a B or C-list actor A-list money and trying really hard to pretend they're an A-list actor.

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45 minutes ago, TankWilliams said:

Don't get me wrong, I like Watkins and will be happy if they sign him.  That being said, I've decided I prefer Robinson.  Watkins hasn't really proven he can be a #1 WR (only one year of 1k yards) and hasn't played a whole season since his rookie year.  So far he's shown he can be a strong deep threat but not a ton more.  If they sign Watkins, i still draft another WR in the first 3 rounds.

FWIW Robinson only has 2/4 seasons of 16 games and also 1 season of 1000+ yards. Watkins has 1 16-game season, but in 2017 only missed the week 17 game when the Rams tested all their starters, so in reality the same as Robinson re: healthy seasons. To me ARob’s 2016 statistical down turn = Watkins’ 2017, except without the whole changing teams in August factor. Robinson put up 1400 yards in his big 2015 on 151 targets. Watson put up 1047 in his big 2015 on just 96, in just 13 games. Both have been hampered at times by underwhelming QB play. Their circumstances have been similar, and so have their results. Both are imperfect players. I don’t think anyone should kid themselves about that. But I’m not sure I get the push of Robinson being the “true #1” over Watkins. I don’t think either is a “true #1” as the term is traditionally used, and I don’t think Robinson is any more proven than Watkins is. The few things indisputable is that he’s the one coming off the severe injury who didn’t have blazing speed to begin with (4.60). He’s bigger (6-3 220 vs Watkins 6-1 211) but also slower (4.60 40 to Watkins 4.43). Both are 24. To me those things favor Watkins overall. 

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5 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

FWIW Robinson only has 2/4 seasons of 16 games and also 1 season of 1000+ yards. Watkins has 1 16-game season, but in 2017 only missed the week 17 game when the Rams tested all their starters, so in reality the same as Robinson re: healthy seasons. To me ARob’s 2016 statistical down turn = Watkins’ 2017, except without the whole changing teams in August factor. Robinson put up 1400 yards in his big 2015 on 151 targets. Watson put up 1047 in his big 2015 on just 96, in just 13 games. Both have been hampered at times by underwhelming QB play. Their circumstances have been similar, and so have their results. Both are imperfect players. I don’t think anyone should kid themselves about that. But I’m not sure I get the push of Robinson being the “true #1” over Watkins. I don’t think either is a “true #1” as the term is traditionally used, and I don’t think Robinson is any more proven than Watkins is. The few things indisputable is that he’s the one coming off the severe injury who didn’t have blazing speed to begin with (4.60). He’s bigger (6-3 220 vs Watkins 6-1 211) but also slower (4.60 40 to Watkins 4.43). Both are 24. To me those things favor Watkins overall. 

Like I said, I like them both.   It seems a safe bet that Watkins will miss around 3 games a season due to nagging injuries that hamper him throughout the season.


Either way, I guess its preference.  I prefer a prototypical guy like Robinson, but maybe thats not the best for the system.  I just have always viewed Watkins as more of a deep threat as opposed to Robinson who is a guy who can be involved in every sort of route.  Maybe I'm wrong about that.  I don't think either one of them is going to be a instant fix to our WR group either way.

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3 minutes ago, TankWilliams said:

I don't think either one of them is going to be a instant fix to our WR group either way.

I do because he pushes everyone down a spot to where, IMO, they truly belong.

1. Watkins

2. Meredith

3. White

4. Wheaton

5. Rookie/FA depth/whatever

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1 minute ago, TankWilliams said:

Like I said, I like them both.   It seems a safe bet that Watkins will miss around 3 games a season due to nagging injuries that hamper him throughout the season.


Either way, I guess its preference.  I prefer a prototypical guy like Robinson, but maybe thats not the best for the system.  I just have always viewed Watkins as more of a deep threat as opposed to Robinson who is a guy who can be involved in every sort of route.  Maybe I'm wrong about that.  I don't think either one of them is going to be a instant fix to our WR group either way.

I agree with the last part. Both are legitimate upgrades but neither is a prime Andre Johnson nor should they be expected to be. I don’t see Watkins as a nagging injury guy though. He had a 3-game calf injury one time. He broke a bone in his foot and was put on IR-return, and hasn’t missed a game to injury in a year and a half since. 

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