Preferred Spot to Draft This Year?

[JaguarCrazy2832]

I feel like I ask this every year and every year I have a different answer and this is only for my league where we get to pick our spot based on a drawing. 

I try and make a list of # of players I deem "worthy" of a 1st round pick, then 2nd and 3rd. 

If there are only 10 1sts, then I dont want 11/12. If there are 8 2nds, then I dont want picks 1 thru 6

Note: I know #1 overall is statistically the best spot but obviously last year that wasnt the case. 

So which spot do you want and why?

[Sllim Pickens]

I like being anywhere in the top 7 but anywhere from 4/5 is ideal IMO.  In a 12 team league, I think being in a spot where you can target Kelce, Chase, Hill, or Kupp in the first is a great spot given you get better options in round 2 with primary targets of Kelce and Chase.  After that there is a drop off and more variability.  You then have to pick between a rookie RB in Bijan, injury prone RB in Barkley, or hope JT bounces back.  That or reach for Diggs, Chubb, Adams, Lamb etc.  

So knowing I want one of those top 7 guys, I look at round 2 ADP and I feel like there are 8/9 guys I view as pretty similar in round 2 after pick 17 so I would say its your comfort level with that group to decide how high in the top 7 you want to be.  

[JaguarCrazy2832]

On 7/18/2023 at 9:54 AM, Sllim Pickens said:

I like being anywhere in the top 7 but anywhere from 4/5 is ideal IMO.  In a 12 team league, I think being in a spot where you can target Kelce, Chase, Hill, or Kupp in the first is a great spot given you get better options in round 2 with primary targets of Kelce and Chase.  After that there is a drop off and more variability.  You then have to pick between a rookie RB in Bijan, injury prone RB in Barkley, or hope JT bounces back.  That or reach for Diggs, Chubb, Adams, Lamb etc.  

So knowing I want one of those top 7 guys, I look at round 2 ADP and I feel like there are 8/9 guys I view as pretty similar in round 2 after pick 17 so I would say its your comfort level with that group to decide how high in the top 7 you want to be.  

Thats the type of thought process i think more people should do

For me in non-ppr there are 10 guys I’m comfortable taking R1 and only 8 i want in R2 so with that i prefer somewhere in 6-10 because i guarantee to get 2 guys i want in the first 2 rounds. I am not enamored with R3 so I don’t weigh it like I would’ve in prior years

[AFF]

Top 4 or the back 4.

either way allows you to grab a stud QB which I think is a big boost…the disparity between the elite and the rest is glaring.

Top 4…something like Chase/waddle/Allen is a great way to start.

Back 4 something like…Pollard/Diggs/Hurts

[JaguarCrazy2832]

So I was the last name picked lol so I was given 10

[Sllim Pickens]

3 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

So I was the last name picked lol so I was given 10

Yuk.  Out of how many?  

Hopefully someone overdrafts JT, Barkley or Pollard and you can get Hill, Chubb, or Bijan.  Not likely but can hope.  

[JaguarCrazy2832]

28 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Yuk.  Out of how many?  

Hopefully someone overdrafts JT, Barkley or Pollard and you can get Hill, Chubb, or Bijan.  Not likely but can hope.  

Out of 12, Non-PPR

[Sllim Pickens]

Non-PPR is a little different.  RBs have more value for sure then but the WR's are safer IMO but I guess then you should still be able to grab a top RB and then a top WR on the way back.  Or Kelce if he drops to 10 which he might in a non-ppr.   

[JaguarCrazy2832]

17 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Non-PPR is a little different.  RBs have more value for sure then but the WR's are safer IMO but I guess then you should still be able to grab a top RB and then a top WR on the way back.  Or Kelce if he drops to 10 which he might in a non-ppr.   

Yea non-ppr is definitely different but its the way we've done it since 2006...we just started doing decimal scoring last year and that took an act of God by me to get it passed. Had to prove that game outcomes wouldve changed if we had it

Kelce is likely my #1 target if he is there just because I am not enamored with any other TEs. Bijan will likely be my #2 based on who is available 

You think Pollard is too early at 15 overall? I have him in my Top-15 for Non-PPR which might be a hot take. I have 0 QBs there, just Kelce at TE and the fact Barkley/Jacobs are potentially sitting my scare me off them at 15. Adams concerns me somewhat given the QB downgrade. Even if Carr is basically Jimmy, they did have chemistry at Fresno and Jimmy has issues staying healthy. 

I do think its very likely that 1-4 of Hill-Diggs-Lamb-AJ are there so maybe I will take them instead but I do like Pollard. 

[RaidersAreOne]

Thoughts on #2? I'm likely going JJ from the feedback I have gotten here/online, but I am truly not digging the RBs left with my 2nd pick. Usually the likes of Najee, Etiene, Hall, etc) which don't have me jumping up and down. I rather almost land a top QB or Waddle, Higgins, etc) but then I'd be hooped at RB.

 

I usually love the last 3rd of the 1st round and double dipping at RB.

[squire12]

3 hours ago, RaidersAreOne said:

Thoughts on #2? I'm likely going JJ from the feedback I have gotten here/online, but I am truly not digging the RBs left with my 2nd pick. Usually the likes of Najee, Etiene, Hall, etc) which don't have me jumping up and down. I rather almost land a top QB or Waddle, Higgins, etc) but then I'd be hooped at RB.

 

I usually love the last 3rd of the 1st round and double dipping at RB.

As risky as it sounds, going WR - WR in the first 2 rounds isn't awful.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

17 hours ago, RaidersAreOne said:

Thoughts on #2? I'm likely going JJ from the feedback I have gotten here/online, but I am truly not digging the RBs left with my 2nd pick. Usually the likes of Najee, Etiene, Hall, etc) which don't have me jumping up and down. I rather almost land a top QB or Waddle, Higgins, etc) but then I'd be hooped at RB.

 

I usually love the last 3rd of the 1st round and double dipping at RB.

PPR? If so doubling up WR isnt the worst plan ever. Getting JJ and Waddle would be pretty great

[RaidersAreOne]

54 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

PPR? If so doubling up WR isnt the worst plan ever. Getting JJ and Waddle would be pretty great

0.5! My strat is going to be so different I can tell. Like I said I usually go RB heavy but can see me going WR 1/2, and a QB even higher than usual as I like to wait on them too.

[Sllim Pickens]

On 7/29/2023 at 10:15 AM, RaidersAreOne said:

0.5! My strat is going to be so different I can tell. Like I said I usually go RB heavy but can see me going WR 1/2, and a QB even higher than usual as I like to wait on them too.

JJ is the easy answer, but in half point PPR Ekeler may be worth it.  However I am very low on Ekeler this year just because of NFL trends and RBs who are 28 don't end up scoring as much.  He has the catching though so should be safer but still makes me nervous. He doesn't have the same wear and tear as most RBs his age with only two years as the lead back so maybe he lasts longer but there tends to be more volatility and changes at the top of the RB list year to year than there is at WR. 

I think going JJ and then Waddle/Wilson and grabbing Rhamodre/Ettiene/Najee/Hall/ even Gibbs in the third makes for a fine start to the draft.  Then go RB again in rd 4 or 5.  Even if you get two of those RBs in the 2nd/3rd thats fine but from my experience in best ball and mock drafts this year, I like the next tier of RBs much more than I do the WRs.  Guys like Kenneth Walker, Rachaad White, JK Dobbins, Mattison, Pierce, Akers, Sanders, Connor, Pacheco, Javonte Williams are all being drafted later and are closer to the tier 2 RBs than guys like Keenan Allen, jerry Jeudy, DJ Moore etc are to the second tier of WRs.  

[JaguarCrazy2832]

3 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

JJ is the easy answer, but in half point PPR Ekeler may be worth it.  However I am very low on Ekeler this year just because of NFL trends and RBs who are 28 don't end up scoring as much.  He has the catching though so should be safer but still makes me nervous. He doesn't have the same wear and tear as most RBs his age with only two years as the lead back so maybe he lasts longer but there tends to be more volatility and changes at the top of the RB list year to year than there is at WR. 

I think going JJ and then Waddle/Wilson and grabbing Rhamodre/Ettiene/Najee/Hall/ even Gibbs in the third makes for a fine start to the draft.  Then go RB again in rd 4 or 5.  Even if you get two of those RBs in the 2nd/3rd thats fine but from my experience in best ball and mock drafts this year, I like the next tier of RBs much more than I do the WRs.  Guys like Kenneth Walker, Rachaad White, JK Dobbins, Mattison, Pierce, Akers, Sanders, Connor, Pacheco, Javonte Williams are all being drafted later and are closer to the tier 2 RBs than guys like Keenan Allen, jerry Jeudy, DJ Moore etc are to the second tier of WRs.  

With regards to Ekeler, its worth pointing out that he has a new OC plus QJ so the idea that Ekeler gets 1000 catches because hes the only healthy guy might not be the case too