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The 2024 Commanders NFL Draft Thread


MikeT14

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1 minute ago, Slappy Mc said:

Not 10 OL, 10 OTs. 

I'm still pretty solid on this stance as well. Whether they draft a college OT and slide them inside to OG I don't care. This is a very talented OT group. 

Alt, Fashanu, Fuaga, Mims, Latham, Guyton, Fautanu, Morgan, Suamataia and Amegadjie are all instant starters at tackle IMO. 

That doesn't include Barton who I am pretty sure will slide inside to Guard. Fautanu may slide inside as well, but I think he can be successful at Tackle. Paul, Fisher and Puni could all end up going in the 2nd as well for a total of 13 OTs in the first 60 picks. 

Team needs though doesn't always line up with who's deserving of the pick. There are possibly 6 QBs going in R1, now you're saying 10 OTs? That's half the picks between two positions. It just seems unlikely.

I think a few of those last guys will fall to the top of R2 & we couid get them there but, I'm also not opposed to trade up for one of the guys in the 20s who is available & we have the highest grade on.

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Just now, MikeT14 said:

That dude STINKS. 

I haven't seen him take a snap since he left Philly. PFF had him rated higher than Donovan Smith on their best available players list.

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Just now, turtle28 said:

Team needs though doesn't always line up with who's deserving of the pick. There are possibly 6 QBs going in R1, now you're saying 10 OTs? That's half the picks between two positions. It just seems unlikely.

I think a few of those last guys will fall to the top of R2 & we couid get them there but, I'm also not opposed to trade up for one of the guys in the 20s who is available & we have the highest grade on.

I think there is a much higher chance of 10 OTs going in round 1 over 6 QBs. I can all but guarantee Alt, Fuaga, Fashanu, Mims, Latham, Fautanu and Guyton are locks for round 1 IMO. If a run goes on them early, more will go as well. 

For funsies, do a mock draft simulator a couple times and look at the overall picks for round 1, come back and tell me how many OTs go.

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1 minute ago, Slappy Mc said:

I think there is a much higher chance of 10 OTs going in round 1 over 6 QBs. I can all but guarantee Alt, Fuaga, Fashanu, Mims, Latham, Fautanu and Guyton are locks for round 1 IMO. If a run goes on them early, more will go as well. 

For funsies, do a mock draft simulator a couple times and look at the overall picks for round 1, come back and tell me how many OTs go.

Ehhhh.... I'd probably take the odds on teams panicking on QN and six somehow go in round 1 (especially with that 5th year option) over 10 OTs...

The seven you mentioned (I'm not sold Guyton goes - just a good of a chance of yes as no). Then you need Kingsley, Paul, Morgan, or a super reach of the kid from Yale. Or you hope someone plays Barton at tackle. Or that Fautanu stays outside (I still have him inside, but his numbers were better than expected). So yeah, as a betting man, I'll take the 6 QB Hail Mary over 10 Tackles. 

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18 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said:

Again, if you watch the video, a defender is diving at his legs. If he slides he likely gets hit with a targeting-style tackle. If he just takes the hit, maybe an acl is blown. I'm not advocating for a QB to hurdle like that, but I see that as a likely best case scenario if he didn't end up hurt. 

I hate to nitpick but, here we are I guess. I suggest you watch the video again. The defender didn't dive at his knee. They were lunging at his midsection to make a tackle. To avoid that he decided to hurdle. That just made the hit absorbed by 3 or 4 guys worse. The bottom line is leaving your feet to try to hurdle tacklers is a recipe for disaster, I hate when any player does it, let alone the guy I want to develop into a franchise QB.

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6 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said:

I think there is a much higher chance of 10 OTs going in round 1 over 6 QBs. I can all but guarantee Alt, Fuaga, Fashanu, Mims, Latham, Fautanu and Guyton are locks for round 1 IMO. If a run goes on them early, more will go as well. 

For funsies, do a mock draft simulator a couple times and look at the overall picks for round 1, come back and tell me how many OTs go.

It's a simulator. That's just a guess as good as you or I’s guess. QB is the most important position. If I’m a team that needs an upgrade at backup QB or has an aging vet QB in their 30s, in the late teens or 20s & I have a solid OL, I’d take a QB like Penix or Nix before I’d take an OT to be a back up.

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8 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

I hate to nitpick but, here we are I guess. I suggest you watch the video again. The defender didn't dive at his knee. They were lunging at his midsection to make a tackle. To avoid that he decided to hurdle. That just made the hit absorbed by 3 or 4 guys worse. The bottom line is leaving your feet to try to hurdle tacklers is a recipe for disaster, I hate when any player does it, let alone the guy I want to develop into a franchise QB.

I agree 100% that leaving your feet is a recipe for disaster, but I have different feelings on the location of the defender in relation to him sliding or just taking the hit. 

I have watched the video several times. If he slows down to brace for a hit or to slide, IMO, the outcome is much worse for him. 

You don't share that opinion and that's cool. 

To me this seems like someone that doesn't like Jayden Daniels who wanted to nitpick on a specific play, but the decision to leave his feet ended up being possible the best outcome. I would not advocate for any QB, including but not limited to Josh Allen, to hurdle, but I can understand why in this instance, he didn't slide or brace to just take the tackle. 

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12 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

Ehhhh.... I'd probably take the odds on teams panicking on QN and six somehow go in round 1 (especially with that 5th year option) over 10 OTs...

The seven you mentioned (I'm not sold Guyton goes - just a good of a chance of yes as no). Then you need Kingsley, Paul, Morgan, or a super reach of the kid from Yale. Or you hope someone plays Barton at tackle. Or that Fautanu stays outside (I still have him inside, but his numbers were better than expected). So yeah, as a betting man, I'll take the 6 QB Hail Mary over 10 Tackles. 

Well this will make for a fun Draft prop bet. Again, Fautanu and Barton are OTs being pushed inside, so they would still count as OTs in my book. Thats 8, so Morgan, Paul or Kingsley could easily slide in. 

On the flip side of that, a team in need of a QB would likely have to trade up into the end of the 1st round to draft Nix and Penix as there is likely no chance a top 10 team takes a QB. 

I'd honestly take the money on 10 tackles over 6 QBs. I'm also very high on this offensive line class and very pessimistic on this QB class. So maybe I'm bias.

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14 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said:

Well this will make for a fun Draft prop bet. Again, Fautanu and Barton are OTs being pushed inside, so they would still count as OTs in my book. Thats 8, so Morgan, Paul or Kingsley could easily slide in. 

Now it's getting into interesting semantics and you might as well just go the offensive lineman route. If they're being pushed inside, it's because the NFL team deemed them inside and probably should be counted as such. No one is really calling Barton a tackle at this point. I wouldn't agree to that take if they weren't announced that way.

14 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said:

On the flip side of that, a team in need of a QB would likely have to trade up into the end of the 1st round to draft Nix and Penix as there is likely no chance a top 10 team takes a QB. 

Which wouldn't take a whole lot for teams like the Broncos or Raiders to do. 

 

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https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2024-nfl-mock-draft-3-0

8 OTs - Alt, Fuaga, Fashanu, Fautanu, Latham, Guyton, Barton, Mims

https://www.nfl.com/news/bucky-brooks-2024-nfl-mock-draft-3-0

8 OTs - Alt, Fashanu, Fuaga, Latham, Fautanu, Mims, Barton, Guyton

https://www.nfl.com/news/charles-davis-2024-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-giants-turn-to-j-j-mccarthy-as-successor-to-daniel-jones

7 OTs - Alt, Fuaga, Fashanu, Latham, Mims, Guyton, Fautanu 

https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/1bijjzd/comment/kvkn2ks/?share_id=RLaS5RSSW74eFVj3qw33o&utm_content=2&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_source=share&utm_term=1

9 OTs - Alt, Latham, Fashanu, Fautanu, Fuaga, Barton, Guyton, Mims, Rosengarten

Just a few "draft experts" mock drafts. Closest to 10 I got was Kipers and closest to 6 for QBs was also Kipers. 

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5 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

Now it's getting into interesting semantics and you might as well just go the offensive lineman route. If they're being pushed inside, it's because the NFL team deemed them inside and probably should be counted as such. No one is really calling Barton a tackle at this point. I wouldn't agree to that take if they weren't announced that way.

Fair enough. 

If 9 OTs (or 8 if Fautanu is listed as a OG)  and Barton go in the 1st, I'll still consider myself right.

If I lowered my number to 9 OTs, it wouldn't make a difference to me. I guess I could say "up to 10" tackles go in round 1 lol. 

The point is this is a loaded draft for offensive lineman, specifically OTs.

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4 hours ago, Slappy Mc said:

Not 10 OL, 10 OTs. 

I'm still pretty solid on this stance as well. Whether they draft a college OT and slide them inside to OG I don't care. This is a very talented OT group. 

Alt, Fashanu, Fuaga, Mims, Latham, Guyton, Fautanu, Morgan, Suamataia and Amegadjie are all instant starters at tackle IMO. 

That doesn't include Barton who I am pretty sure will slide inside to Guard. Fautanu may slide inside as well, but I think he can be successful at Tackle. Paul, Fisher and Puni could all end up going in the 2nd as well for a total of 13 OTs in the first 60 picks. 

If I was in Peters shoes I would be looking to trade up from 2-36 into the 1st to get a guy like Guyton or Mims.

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4 hours ago, Slappy Mc said:

Well this will make for a fun Draft prop bet. Again, Fautanu and Barton are OTs being pushed inside, so they would still count as OTs in my book. Thats 8, so Morgan, Paul or Kingsley could easily slide in. 

On the flip side of that, a team in need of a QB would likely have to trade up into the end of the 1st round to draft Nix and Penix as there is likely no chance a top 10 team takes a QB. 

I'd honestly take the money on 10 tackles over 6 QBs. I'm also very high on this offensive line class and very pessimistic on this QB class. So maybe I'm bias.

Did someone say "Draft Prop Bet"?

You have my attention now.

BTW - I'm gonna be bringing back the draft game for this year in the next few days. Just as soon as my daughter's musical is finished this Sunday, I'll get the thing started.

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