Caserio on the hot seat?

[lumberjackchris]

I know it looks like he’s hit a HR with Stroud and WAJ, but you can’t over look the every growing sense that both 2022 1st rounders could be bust….

[tab]

i dont think he should be on the hot seat for injuries, at least not for stingley. He's also hit on a lot of late rounders

 

anyways, i seriously doubt his seat is warm at all

[Pastor Dillon]

1 hour ago, tab said:

i dont think he should be on the hot seat for injuries, at least not for stingley. He's also hit on a lot of late rounders

 

anyways, i seriously doubt his seat is warm at all

100% can be on the hot seat for drafting an injury prone player who becomes an injury prone pro. 100% 

[tab]

49 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said:

100% can be on the hot seat for drafting an injury prone player who becomes an injury prone pro. 100% 

can you give me an example of this? I cant see that happening while the drafted player, when healthy, played well. 

anyways, the point is all moot because the FO is not going to fire him this far into the rebuild. I get the feeling that they've invested way too much into him to not see this out 

[ET80]

3 hours ago, tab said:

4 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said:

100% can be on the hot seat for drafting an injury prone player who becomes an injury prone pro. 100% 

can you give me an example of this? I cant see that happening while the drafted player, when healthy, played well. 

I get where @Pastor Dillon is coming from - even before the pick, the biggest question on Stingley was his injury history. We can debate the nature of the injury and his performance when healthy, but absolutely nobody here can say they didn’t see that red flag flying when Stingley wasn’t even a Texan. EVERY scouting report on him called out his extensive injury history. There was significant risk in drafting Stingley, and that risk is coming home to roost. Yeah, we see flashes of the reward - when healthy, Stingley is a terror at CB. But what worth is that when he’s not healthy that often? 

I do feel as if Kenyon Green is the bigger bust - because you simply CANNOT draft an inferior IOL in the first round. If you’re drafting non-premium position in the first round (IOL, TE, RB, ILB, S) you need to draft a 10 year starter and a multi-All Pro at the spot. Green is flat out not that guy and there’s nothing really indicating he WILL be that guy. 

These two picks more or less cancel out the good hits he had in this same draft - Jalen Pitre in the 2nd was an inspired pickup and a core player for this team for the foreseeable future, Christian Harris looks like a dependable starter for several years and a DeMeco guy, Dameon Pierce is slated to be a positive force on the offense for a few more years (DO NOT sign him to a 2nd contract) and Teagan Quitty is a high end TE2 who can blossom into a quality TE1. The draft is actually not bad when weighed against the entire class - two long term starters, two key guys who can play on rookie deals. This is all nice until you consider you first pick is injury prone and your very next pick is a bust at a position you shouldn’t have drafted that high to begin with.

So, his seat *SHOULD* be warm at the very least. More on that below. 

3 hours ago, tab said:

anyways, the point is all moot because the FO is not going to fire him this far into the rebuild. I get the feeling that they've invested way too much into him to not see this out 

I agree here - he’s going to get at least two years post-final Deshaun Watson trade pick has been made (so maybe 2026). They’re going to fully evaluate how the CJ Stroud, Will Anderson and (insert 2024 pick here) goes. Honestly - if Stroud and Anderson continue on their trajectory, you can’t fire Caserio. Sure, he missed on CB at 3, but he hit on QB at 2 (and that’s more important). He missed on a 1st round G but hit on a 1st round edge (regardless of costs to move up - because there is nobody in the 2024 draft that can equate to what Will Anderson is as an edge). There is also a few nice additions on this draft - Tank Dell, Henry To’o To’o and Jarrett Patterson all look very competent in limited action, and Juice Scruggs will probably be a net positive upon return. So - for all intents and purposes, his drafting has not been too bad overall.

However - a GM is not graded strictly on their drafting ability. Caserio is going to be judged on how he manages his cap and his ability to maintain a healthy cap with choice FA signings; Caserio will finally be able to either issue an extension to someone or spend on a bigger ticket FA; If Caserio can bring in a true impact player to add to this roster (Leonard Williams or Tee Higgins, perhaps?) then his score goes up; If he’s still inking guys like Shaq Griffin and Sheldon Rankins to one year deals, then his grade goes WAY down.

[Pastor Dillon]

People are underestimating how close Caserio was to being fired this off season. If we end up bottom 3 and that pick goes to Arizona, I will be shocked if he’s not fired this off season and a Ryans guy brought in.  
 

bookmark it. 

[Drained]

Only thing Nick has messed up on is his coaching hires.

2022, he hit on literally every pick that draft except the two first round picks. Sting was risky but it would have paid dividends if he didn't just get injured, but it could still be a great pick, he was playing lockdown this season so far. 

Green, well, that's a different story.

Don't think that he's getting fired if he finish with an okay record.

[Kirby Drive]

On 9/21/2023 at 5:44 PM, ET80 said:

I get where @Pastor Dillon is coming from - even before the pick, the biggest question on Stingley was his injury history. We can debate the nature of the injury and his performance when healthy, but absolutely nobody here can say they didn’t see that red flag flying when Stingley wasn’t even a Texan. EVERY scouting report on him called out his extensive injury history. There was significant risk in drafting Stingley, and that risk is coming home to roost. Yeah, we see flashes of the reward - when healthy, Stingley is a terror at CB. But what worth is that when he’s not healthy that often? 

I do feel as if Kenyon Green is the bigger bust - because you simply CANNOT draft an inferior IOL in the first round. If you’re drafting non-premium position in the first round (IOL, TE, RB, ILB, S) you need to draft a 10 year starter and a multi-All Pro at the spot. Green is flat out not that guy and there’s nothing really indicating he WILL be that guy. 

These two picks more or less cancel out the good hits he had in this same draft - Jalen Pitre in the 2nd was an inspired pickup and a core player for this team for the foreseeable future, Christian Harris looks like a dependable starter for several years and a DeMeco guy, Dameon Pierce is slated to be a positive force on the offense for a few more years (DO NOT sign him to a 2nd contract) and Teagan Quitty is a high end TE2 who can blossom into a quality TE1. The draft is actually not bad when weighed against the entire class - two long term starters, two key guys who can play on rookie deals. This is all nice until you consider you first pick is injury prone and your very next pick is a bust at a position you shouldn’t have drafted that high to begin with.

So, his seat *SHOULD* be warm at the very least. More on that below. 

I agree here - he’s going to get at least two years post-final Deshaun Watson trade pick has been made (so maybe 2026). They’re going to fully evaluate how the CJ Stroud, Will Anderson and (insert 2024 pick here) goes. Honestly - if Stroud and Anderson continue on their trajectory, you can’t fire Caserio. Sure, he missed on CB at 3, but he hit on QB at 2 (and that’s more important). He missed on a 1st round G but hit on a 1st round edge (regardless of costs to move up - because there is nobody in the 2024 draft that can equate to what Will Anderson is as an edge). There is also a few nice additions on this draft - Tank Dell, Henry To’o To’o and Jarrett Patterson all look very competent in limited action, and Juice Scruggs will probably be a net positive upon return. So - for all intents and purposes, his drafting has not been too bad overall.

However - a GM is not graded strictly on their drafting ability. Caserio is going to be judged on how he manages his cap and his ability to maintain a healthy cap with choice FA signings; Caserio will finally be able to either issue an extension to someone or spend on a bigger ticket FA; If Caserio can bring in a true impact player to add to this roster (Leonard Williams or Tee Higgins, perhaps?) then his score goes up; If he’s still inking guys like Shaq Griffin and Sheldon Rankins to one year deals, then his grade goes WAY down.

Caserio isn't going anywhere. He and Lovie work well together.

 

I'm hoping they sign Lawrence or Williams in FA, if not both. If they only sign one of these guys in FA then I hope they bring back Rankins on another 1 or 2 year deal along with Ridgeway. Any stud LB's out there in the draft or FA?

[ET80]

1 hour ago, Kirby Drive said:

Caserio isn't going anywhere. He and Lovie work well together

Lovie is unemployed, thankfully.

I agree with you, for the most part. If you look at his drafts since he's got here, they're actually stellar. It's easier to list out his significant misses (Kenyon Green) than it is his valuable pickups (Nico Collins, Jalen Pitre,  Dameon Pierce, CJ Stroud, Jarrett Patterson, Tank Dell... and that's only surface level). 

In a job where good GMs hit .300, Caserio is hitting .500+. One good (yet injury prone) CB doesn't change that.

1 hour ago, Kirby Drive said:

I'm hoping they sign Lawrence or Williams in FA, if not both. If they only sign one of these guys in FA then I hope they bring back Rankins on another 1 or 2 year deal along with Ridgeway. Any stud LB's out there in the draft or FA?

Lawrence? As in Dexter Lawrence? He resigned with NYG, a very rich deal for a NT. Perhaps you're thinking his old Clemson teammates Christian Wilkins, who is an impending FA? He's high on my list as well.

As far as LB? I'm actually enjoying the continued evolution of Harris, To'o To'o and Cashman. It's not a stud unit by any means, but these are the sort of guys you want in a Wide-9 43 look. They're all dirty job guys, you can win games with those kind of guys. 

This being said - Dallas Turner out of Alabama fits our mold of an Alabama alumni with a nonstop motor and nose for the ball. To'o To'o profiles as a MLB, so Harris and Turner would be your WLB/SLB setup. (We'd be to Alabama what Philadelphia is to Georgia - that's not really a bad thing, either). 

Free Agency has a few 34 types (Rashan Gary, Montez Sweat) who'd probably not fit what we do...

[Pastor Dillon]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

Lovie is unemployed, thankfully.

I agree with you, for the most part. If you look at his drafts since he's got here, they're actually stellar. It's easier to list out his significant misses (Kenyon Green) than it is his valuable pickups (Nico Collins, Jalen Pitre,  Dameon Pierce, CJ Stroud, Jarrett Patterson, Tank Dell... and that's only surface level). 

In a job where good GMs hit .300, Caserio is hitting .500+. One good (yet injury prone) CB doesn't change that.

Lawrence? As in Dexter Lawrence? He resigned with NYG, a very rich deal for a NT. Perhaps you're thinking his old Clemson teammates Christian Wilkins, who is an impending FA? He's high on my list as well.

As far as LB? I'm actually enjoying the continued evolution of Harris, To'o To'o and Cashman. It's not a stud unit by any means, but these are the sort of guys you want in a Wide-9 43 look. They're all dirty job guys, you can win games with those kind of guys. 

This being said - Dallas Turner out of Alabama fits our mold of an Alabama alumni with a nonstop motor and nose for the ball. To'o To'o profiles as a MLB, so Harris and Turner would be your WLB/SLB setup. (We'd be to Alabama what Philadelphia is to Georgia - that's not really a bad thing, either). 

Free Agency has a few 34 types (Rashan Gary, Montez Sweat) who'd probably not fit what we do...

CJ Stroud over the last few weeks is saving Caserio's job. 

[ET80]

23 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said:

CJ Stroud over the last few weeks is saving Caserio's job. 

...And Nico Collins.

...And Jalen Pitre.

...And Henry To'o To'o.

...And Jarrett Patterson.

...And Dameon Pierce.

...And Tank Dell.

[Pastor Dillon]

1 minute ago, ET80 said:

...And Nico Collins.

...And Jalen Pitre.

...And Henry To'o To'o.

...And Jarrett Patterson.

...And Dameon Pierce.

...And Tank Dell.

I am not disputing that he hit on those guys, but you have to agree that if we are sitting 0-4 and Stroud was playing like he did in the pre season, then Caserio was going to be in real trouble....plus guys like Collins and Dell would not be looking like steals.....and Pierce has not been impressive at all this season. 

 

[ET80]

Just now, Pastor Dillon said:

I am not disputing that he hit on those guys, but you have to agree that if we are sitting 0-4 and Stroud was playing like he did in the pre season, then Caserio was going to be in real trouble....plus guys like Collins and Dell would not be looking like steals.....and Pierce has not been impressive at all this season. 

 

Likewise - if we're sitting at 4-0 and Derek Stingley has a healthy hamstring and a pick six, this topic doesn't exist either. This isn't the case, neither is your 0-4 scenario.

We can create multiple scenarios in which he looks good or bad, but all that matters is reality - the team is 2-2, there are significant injuries to account for and the team is ascending in regards to public perception and on field performance. Caserio deserves criticism at points but also deserves credit where credit is do.

Good and bad considered - Caserio is sitting comfortably.

[Pastor Dillon]

3 hours ago, ET80 said:

Likewise - if we're sitting at 4-0 and Derek Stingley has a healthy hamstring and a pick six, this topic doesn't exist either. This isn't the case, neither is your 0-4 scenario.

We can create multiple scenarios in which he looks good or bad, but all that matters is reality - the team is 2-2, there are significant injuries to account for and the team is ascending in regards to public perception and on field performance. Caserio deserves criticism at points but also deserves credit where credit is do.

Good and bad considered - Caserio is sitting comfortably.

honestly, I am not even sure any of that matters. Caserio might still not be in this for long. There were rumors he would voluntarily leave after this past draft. My debate has never really been about his job performance as much as he is still tied to the old way of doing things, and that Ryans might eventually want his own guy. Ryans is going to be the kind of coach that is the top dog in the organization. He might not exercise that like others have, but he is going to have that kind of pull if he wants it. It remains to be seen. 

[ET80]

18 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said:

honestly, I am not even sure any of that matters. Caserio might still not be in this for long. There were rumors he would voluntarily leave after this past draft. My debate has never really been about his job performance as much as he is still tied to the old way of doing things, and that Ryans might eventually want his own guy. Ryans is going to be the kind of coach that is the top dog in the organization. He might not exercise that like others have, but he is going to have that kind of pull if he wants it. It remains to be seen. 

I get there were rumors, but there are also direct quotes from Ryans himself on how he likes working with Caserio:

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/demeco-ryans-nick-caserio-has-been-really-fun-to-work-with
 

"I’m happy to be in this spot working with someone as experienced as Nick because he’s helped me and guided me through a lot. It’s always great to have someone you can lean on, someone you can trust, and our relationship — me and Nick — we collaborate on everything. That was our plan coming into it and that’s what we do. Every morning we’re meeting, making sure that we’re on the same page, and I think that’s how you grow when you have collaboration and you have buy-in from everyone. Just like we’re asking our players to be one, me and Nick, we’re one on all of our decisions that we make, trying to make our organization the best it can be"

You can't say that one is media lip service and the other one is credible - the rumors and the quote are opposites ends of the spectrum, so one is true and the other is not. I'll say this - Ryans doesn't seem like a guy who can openly lie to anyone. Sure, there's spin doctoring to statements, but this is very blunt and specific. If it's not true, then Ryans is lying through his teeth.

Taking both out of the equation, you have to wargame this out - if Ryans flexes anything and gets Nick fired, and then suddenly the quality of player brought in suffers? Ryans is the only one who will take the blame, even if he hires a GM. People's will immediately know any GM is just acting as a puppet to Ryans, especially if Caserio is fired after hitting on so much in a positive way.

We're actually seeing this sort of thing play out with the Houston Astros - GM James Click wasn't resigned (after winning a WS, no less) and Jeff Bagwell was the defacto interim GM this offseason. He made some very questionable decisions in regards to extensions and free agent signings, those decisions didn't go as planned and now it's Bagwell (a HoF player for this team, one of the franchise legends) who is carrying the brunt of those decisions. If the Astros don't repeat Bagwell is going to be punted out of that building for his error in judgment. Never mind they hired a GM - these were Bagwell's calls, and he botched them in the middle of a ride as the top franchise in the sport.

Ryans is pragmatic enough to understand that Caserio represents insulation. Ryans would not be blamed if Juice Scruggs busted or if that Cardinals pick turns out to be a top 5 pick - those are Caserio decisions, so Caserio would feel the heat.