JIllg Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 51 minutes ago, Forge said: I'd take Purdy over Goff, mainly for what he does against pressure, but not by enough to really make me care about it. People want to take Goff over him, I wouldn't care. If he's a nimble goff, I'm fine with that. Goff is a good, not great. The problem with using statistics on Purdy (besides the small sample, which you alluded to) is that Purdy just put an all time great statistical season up and that's really the only lens we have to view him through. Quite a bit of it is simply unsustainable. So we really don't have a baseline for Purdy where as we kind of do have a pretty good understanding of what a guy like Goff is. We are still guessing what his baseline is ultimately going to be, so it's all guess work. That's why I was very much in Brock's corner for MVP though, because I don't think people realized just how difficult that season was to put up. But it is very possible that his best two years in his career will be last year and this upcoming year. Goff's first two years under McVay were really, really good as well. But there are things with Purdy that just aren't going to be sustainable. The Y/A and ANY/A are not sustainable even with the Shanny bump. I would suspect him stay among the league leaders while he's with Shanny, but 9.6 and 9.01? Those are not numbers that will be replicable for most of his career (I suspect he'll stay close this year though...maybe like 9.1 and 8.2 or something). Last year we talked about Purdy's intermediate passing rate being unsustainable (80% completion percentage). This year it dipped to like 67%, which is still like top 3 in the league and absolutely elite. But this year we are going to have a new version of that - his deep passing. Last year Purdy completed 63.8% of his passes 20 yards or more down the field. I don't know if anyone understands how bat**** bonkers unsustainable that is (side note: you know how's been a sneaky good down field thrower over his career? Nick Mullens. Kind of wild). There have been several seasons since 2010 where the league leader in completion percentage on 20 yard passes is under 50%. Since 2010, I have found exactly 0 people who have completed 60% of their passes 20 or more yards down the field besides Purdy (min 40 attempts down field). The second highest I have found was CJ Stroud at 56% this year lol. Tua was 54% two years ago and Alex Smith was 53% in 2017 . So this is a maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaassive outlier. Joe Burrow has completed 40% of these passes once in his career over a season. Mahomes has hit 50% once in his career. It's going to normalize and it's not going to do so at 64%. And it's really not going to have anything to do with him getting worse. Hell, he could get better. That's just the nature of the beast. I don't think you make money betting on outliers. To use a hockey term, Purdy was kind of on a PDO bender with his deep passing last year. Now, I don't know how big of a deal that is in the long run, but obviously it starts to pull on some of these historical numbers. If you start losing league leading YAC and get guys more in line with league averages, that could hurt as well....but we have no idea where this baseline is ultimately going to be. Ultimately, I think Purdy likely ends up in the good, not great QB tier which is where I have guys like Goff, Kyler, etc. But we will see. So much more data is needed, especially given how absurd that last year was lol I agree with all of this. Add in that Aiyuk had a catch rate that is unsustainable and you'll get another part of the puzzle that was last year's outlier performance. I don't think that it's unfair to expect a sort of 50-55% downfield sort of season out of Brock with the current weapon set. And I do think that Brock has a lot of room for improvement on the relatively less difficult bit of just executing the underneath offense while cutting down on inaccuracies and dangerous turnover-quality plays. Brock was lower-middle class (in the 20s) in the PFF 0-10 yard passing grade while being absolutely nuts down the field and outside the pocket. It was his first full season in the offense coming off the injury and some of these offense executing metrics do rise with time. One place that I think that we can't expect to improve is the outside the numbers short passing. Brock's arm strength just struggles to drive these. I will also say that those that put up crazy outlier seasons do tend to be better than their peers in general in regular seasons. And they are really better than the mediocre sorts like Goff - I think that Goff is strictly a function of an absurdly good environment. He doesn't have Shanahan, but Ben Johnson has been roughly tied for second at generating open receivers along with Andy Reid. It's as close to the Shanahan cheat code as you can get. And his pass protection last year was obscenely nuts. I think that people don't get that the offensive line's pressure rate was including facing a near-league leading blitz rate because folks wanted to speed Goff up and they knew that they couldn't get there with 4. So Goff saw A LOT of blitzes that didn't get home with a lot of time even under the blitz with wide open receivers in behind. And we've got a lot of evidence that Goff isn't just mediocre, but actually quite bad when not in such excellent circumstances and that he is incapable of doing anything above and beyond to help an offense. Goff is Jimmy G with better PR. So I'm very confident that Brock has a better, say, three year outlook than Goff even before Goff is expected to decline with age. You can pick a lot of other QBs and I'd buy the argument that they are in a rough tier with Brock. I don't buy it with Goff. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 (edited) 25 minutes ago, JIllg said: I agree with all of this. Add in that Aiyuk had a catch rate that is unsustainable and you'll get another part of the puzzle that was last year's outlier performance. I don't think that it's unfair to expect a sort of 50-55% downfield sort of season out of Brock with the current weapon set. And I do think that Brock has a lot of room for improvement on the relatively less difficult bit of just executing the underneath offense while cutting down on inaccuracies and dangerous turnover-quality plays. Brock was lower-middle class (in the 20s) in the PFF 0-10 yard passing grade while being absolutely nuts down the field and outside the pocket. It was his first full season in the offense coming off the injury and some of these offense executing metrics do rise with time. One place that I think that we can't expect to improve is the outside the numbers short passing. Brock's arm strength just struggles to drive these. I will also say that those that put up crazy outlier seasons do tend to be better than their peers in general in regular seasons. And they are really better than the mediocre sorts like Goff - I think that Goff is strictly a function of an absurdly good environment. He doesn't have Shanahan, but Ben Johnson has been roughly tied for second at generating open receivers along with Andy Reid. It's as close to the Shanahan cheat code as you can get. And his pass protection last year was obscenely nuts. I think that people don't get that the offensive line's pressure rate was including facing a near-league leading blitz rate because folks wanted to speed Goff up and they knew that they couldn't get there with 4. So Goff saw A LOT of blitzes that didn't get home with a lot of time even under the blitz with wide open receivers in behind. And we've got a lot of evidence that Goff isn't just mediocre, but actually quite bad when not in such excellent circumstances and that he is incapable of doing anything above and beyond to help an offense. Goff is Jimmy G with better PR. So I'm very confident that Brock has a better, say, three year outlook than Goff even before Goff is expected to decline with age. You can pick a lot of other QBs and I'd buy the argument that they are in a rough tier with Brock. I don't buy it with Goff. Goff is your classic 1/1 overall. He is tall, his hair blows beautifully in the wind, and he is great at throwing the football in perfect conditions. He is only as good as his protection will allow him to be. It's really pretty simple, he is Drew Bledsoey. Give him an elite line and a few weapons you will get top 10 production, even without a running game. Brock masks O-line deficiencies, but he really thrives when guys are moving the wrong way in the play action game. I feel like forcing guys into their gaps for the run game helps Brock Clarify the coverage and move through his reads, as well as buys him a little extra space to work his throws in. I think you have two players that are complete opposites in multiple ways, but still within a similar tier of production. I feel Purdy is more sustainable, personally, because elite protection is really hard to sustain over the long term. Edited July 16 by Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 NGL, some of this is backward from what I would expect lol His lack of success with the dig route is wild given how prevalent it is. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JIllg Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 On 7/20/2024 at 3:31 PM, Forge said: NGL, some of this is backward from what I would expect lol His lack of success with the dig route is wild given how prevalent it is. I feel like some of his real hits on the really deep overs and digs to Aiyuk got labeled as further down the field than the 10 to 20 yard slot. He had an elite rate by Rec. Perc. metrics in the deep middle, but that only works if you only chart 20+ without more granularity and I know that he was pretty darn bad at the really deep stuff down the middle - your home run posts and such. The sort of intermediate ins I feel like we ran less of all the way around this year. And I do agree that one of the most important places for Brock to improve is just not forcing things into overhang defenders on those ins - the Ravens game is pretty obvious on that one for the first pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JIllg Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 Bill Barnwell's long take I've enjoyed Bill's stuff for a long time going back to the days of Grantland and such. And this is an excellent Brock discussion. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 39 minutes ago, JIllg said: Bill Barnwell's long take I've enjoyed Bill's stuff for a long time going back to the days of Grantland and such. And this is an excellent Brock discussion. Was just going to post this. Lots of great stuff in here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herodreamer79 Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 (edited) I see this comparison presented constantly as a knock on Brock Purdy. Really, it's a knock on Jimmy Garoppolo. Jimmy Garoppolo was a 2nd round pick and had 4 years of grooming under the Brady/Belichick dynasty. He played 8 games in his first 5 seasons before actually playing a full season as a starter. Brock Purdy was Mr Irrelevant and had to start as a ROOKIE and played all of his games in his fist 2 years as an NFL player. Dude was front running the MVP race until christmas and was league leading QB is most categories last season. something garoppolo never got close to doing. Purdy hasn't even taken his 3rd year leap yet. Jimmy Garoppolo has already topped out and bottomed out. This isn't a comparison - it's an outright DEMOLISHING of Jimmy Garoppolo. Edited July 26 by Herodreamer79 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 Jimmy was like 43 after 2019, I believe. Just for a little perspective Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JIllg Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 39 minutes ago, Forge said: Jimmy was like 43 after 2019, I believe. Just for a little perspective Siggggggghhhh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 3 hours ago, JIllg said: Siggggggghhhh I'm kind of surprised he was that high, tbh. I thought when they hit 30 they may have just left him off lol 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 I'd assume he probably puts Purdy around 16 then for the league Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GW21 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 46 minutes ago, Forge said: I'd assume he probably puts Purdy around 16 then for the league lol damn it. I had to look up Calamari. Honestly that doesn’t bother me. The fact that he has Geno and Murray above Brock tells me all I need to know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 People love them some geno Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 7 minutes ago, Forge said: People love them some geno Whatever, Allen Jackson is a Country singer, not a QB. Having Purdy really low on a list seems to be like a fun internet troll trend. How neat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 16 minutes ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said: Whatever, Allen Jackson is a Country singer, not a QB. Having Purdy really low on a list seems to be like a fun internet troll trend. How neat. I don't mind this one at all. 11-15 tier seems pretty reasonable to me. I don't get the Geno love that so many have, but I have no doubt that I'm biased by the fact that most of the games I watch him are the ones against the niners and he's consistently not good against the niners. Really colors your perception lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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