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Is Brock Purdy Actually Good?


NinerNation21

Is Brock Purdy Actually Good?  

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  1. 1. Is Brock Purdy Actually Good?



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Alright I'll bite. Here's by top 14 QB rankings... 

This is purely subjective of my own clear bias. 

PATRICK MAHOMES
JOE BURROW (Feel like burrow is a more even QB than allen)
JOSH ALLEN (too much hero ball, too much game changer, not enough game manager)
MATTHEW STAFFORD (age knocks him back a peg, despite superbowl edge)
LAMAR JACKSON (more accomplished than Herbert)
JUSTIN HERBERT (mostly based on talent. Harbaugh should have him top 3)
CJ STROUD (He's the 1st round pick version of Brock Purdy... paced him all year with a worse team)
BROCK PURDY (Dak has bigger talent, but Purdy is a better big game QB)
DAK PRESCOTT (like his team, he thrives on inferior opponents, terrible in the post-season)
KIRK COUSINS (more accomplished than those below him)
TREVOR LAWRENCE (would have been above CJ Stroud before a bad 2023 season)
JORDAN LOVE (up and coming)
TUA TAGOVAILOA (i don't like his game, but he's piloted a prolific offense 2 years in row) 
KYLER MURRAY (can he get his crap together?)

Edited by Herodreamer79
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Purdy Took the greatest player on the planet with the greatest coaching staff and the best defense in the post-season deep onto OT and made him score on 4 consecutive drives to win. And he did it all with very little help from Deebo, Kittle and his running game. 

Dude is a damn good QB. 

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  • 2 months later...
On 2/17/2024 at 7:57 PM, Forge said:

Seems competent.

Will update as more info becomes available

So, I've gone on about the ANY/A and EPA and whatever and Brock's had everything about his game talked inside and out. At this point, we mostly just need more data. 

But another weird Brock stat quirk - he has a 7.2% career TD percentage. It was 7.6% last year. The first number would be the third best in NFL history behind Sid Luckman and Frankie Albert. The next best dudes from after 1960 are Aaron Rodgers at 6.2% and Patrick Mahomes at 6.1%.

Obviously, obviously small sample size. But those dudes have 3 seasons between them over the course of their entire combined careers that got to 7.2%, much less 7.6%. Hell, Tom Brady's only had one season of 7.6% or higher (2007, duh).  So, yeah. Brock's season on a per pass basis last year was wild. If it is at all predictive of his time with Shanahan, they are going to do some nutty statistical things.

(editor's note: TD% here is % of pass attempts that became touchdowns - sacks here can change this and lead to slight discrepencies)

Edited by JIllg
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  • 1 month later...

Someone went out of their way to endorse Glock's 2023 season papermetric style. It was a random comment on YouTube. I liked the attention to detail. 

https://youtu.be/Fq1Ybl9yROo?si=OiP9-JujCMLi9VDe

Quote

 

Brock Purdy Season Rankings
4th in PFF Grade
2nd(Behind a 5 way tie for 1st) in Big Time throw %
3rd in adjusted comp%
5th in CPOE 
3rd in Completed Air Yds per Attempt 
1st in EPA/Play 
3rd in comp%
1st in TD% 
1st in Pass Successs% 
1st in Y/A
1st in AY/A
1st in Passer Rating 
1st in QBR

“He just throws checkdowns”

3rd in completed Air Yds Per attempt as listed above 
Highest PFF grade on Deep throws 
6th in Big time throw% on Deep throws 
top 10 best Turnover worthy play rate on deep throws 
1st in adjusted comp% on deep throws 
1st in y/a on deep throws 
1st in TDs on deep throws 
2nd in Passer Rating on deep throws

“He has a loaded roster, his stats are inflated”

CPOE, adjusted comp%, QBR, and PFF Grade, use mathematics to account for supporting cast. These stats do the best job at isolating QB play.

“He can’t play without Deebo”
0.242 epa/play WITHOUT Deebo on the field which would rank 3rd in the league 
+6.18 CPOE WITHOUT Deebo On the field whch would rank 1st in the league 

“He can’t play without CMC”
0.4 EPA/Play without CMC on the field which would be first by an extremely wide margin
+8.62 CPOE without CMC on the field which would rank first by an EXTREMELY wide margin 

“Jimmy G had success on the Niners too”


Jimmy’s EPA/Play between 2017-2022 was .209 which is way less than Brock’s 0.338.
Jimmy’s Passer Rating from 2017-2022 is 97.05 which is 15.95 points less than Purdy’s 113 ths year 
Jimmy’s TD% was 5.0 and Purdy’s is 7.0
Jimmy’s Y/A was 8.3 and Purdy’s is 9.6 
Jimmy’s QBR was 55.71 and Purdy’s is 72.7
Jimmy’s CPOE was -0.725 and Purdys is +2.5
Jimmy’s PFF Grade averaged at 73.48 and Brock’s is 88.4 
Jimmy’s Big Time Throw% was 2.98 from 2017-2022 and Purdys is 5.8
Jimmy’s Adjusted COmp% was 74.38 and Purdy’s is 78.3

Yes, Brock Purdy has a great system 
Yes, Brock Purdy has great weapons
While these are true, we have ways of isolating QB play and when we do we can see Brock is a great QB individually. If you dont believe in advanced data and analytics, we can also comapre him to the QB he repalced who had the same scheme and weapons, and no suprise there, he blows him out.

 

 

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6 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

Someone went out of their way to endorse Glock's 2023 season papermetric style. It was a random comment on YouTube. I liked the attention to detail. 

https://youtu.be/Fq1Ybl9yROo?si=OiP9-JujCMLi9VDe

 

I'll also say - the things that folks think he is best at: dinking and dunking, being 2018 Drew Brees are really weaknesses of the team's passing game relative to their other strengths. He was decidedly average in terms of passer rating, CPOE, PFF passing grade, you name it on the stuff underneath 15 and especially 10 yards. If anything, that's the main area of growth he needs to work on.

He was absolutely gnarly whenever he did the stuff not traditionally associated with Shanahan. Whenever they alerted to an outside fade against man either back shoulder or straight on, it didn't feel like the 50/50 gamble that it was for other players because it wasn't. It was just 65% completion kind of pass that is most quarterbacks' average completion rate and very often a kill shot. A decent chunk of that was Aiyuk over performing expectations in getting to and clinging on to some tough passes. He snagged two of them in the first Arizona game that were just nuts. But like every Deebo back shoulder TD, the TDs to Aiyuk against the Steelers and Bucs, the TD to Kittle against the Jags, the kill shot alert down the sideline to Aiyuk against the Commanders (name pending) were just brutally excellent QBing. They weren't impressive arm strength throws. But they were so damn precise that it made the very difficult look routine.

I don't know how much of that is sustainable - like Aiyuk can just not come down with a couple of great balls and it'll eat into the overhead. Purdy can not make quite so many perfect back shoulder dimes to targets like Deebo who can't account for even slight misses and have good but not superb passes turn into incompletions. You have to expect regression when you annihilate the best passing completion percentage over 20 yards for a season by nearly 15 percentage points.

But there gains to be made on the simpler shorter stuff and in cutting down on boneheaded turnover plays that can offset it. And some improvement there can still be expected given age and practice time last year. So we'll see.

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The shorter stuff is why I really liked McConkey and what I really think this team was missing..those 3rd and 5s were tough because they didn't have a quick slot guy.  Pearsall should remedy a lot of that. 

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Something else. It's remarkable how some 49ers fans seem to be under the impression that Brock Purdy will take a "team friendly" deal. In the 40 million range. Because he's just oh so "humble". I'm kind of looking forward to these same people being in for a rude awakening. He'd be an utter moron not to ask for as much money as possible, and drag the front brass through the mud if necessary. 

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3 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

Something else. It's remarkable how some 49ers fans seem to be under the impression that Brock Purdy will take a "team friendly" deal. In the 40 million range. Because he's just oh so "humble". I'm kind of looking forward to these same people being in for a rude awakening. He'd be an utter moron not to ask for as much money as possible, and drag the front brass through the mud if necessary. 

Agreed. I don’t see any reason why Purdy would settle for anything less than market value, especially since he will be coming off of pretty much the cheapest contract possible for his first three years.

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On 6/16/2024 at 6:58 AM, TecmoSuperJoe said:

Something else. It's remarkable how some 49ers fans seem to be under the impression that Brock Purdy will take a "team friendly" deal. In the 40 million range. Because he's just oh so "humble". I'm kind of looking forward to these same people being in for a rude awakening. He'd be an utter moron not to ask for as much money as possible, and drag the front brass through the mud if necessary. 

Tom Brady did that more than once.

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