Highly Rated Alabama and UGA Players-Are They Struggling To Adjust To The NFL?

[Just Want A Title]

We have been waiting patiently for Jameson Williams to become the WR we want him to be.  I don't have any stats to back it up but it seems like a number of very highly rated players from Alabama and UGA have struggled with the adjustment to the NFL.  Andrew Thomas, Evan Neal, Alex Leatherwood are good examples on the O-Line.  Jerry Jeudy hasn't really lived up to the hype.  Travon Walker has been solid but not spectacular.  Lewis Cine hasn't been the player that anyone expected. You could throw Clemson and LSU into that discussion also.

To be fair, there have been some notable successes with players like Quinnen Williams, Christian Barmore, Trevon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle and Patrick Surtain II.  Brian Branch seems to be trending into this group right now.

To me, it seems like a lot of their high-end players don't really evolve into dominant NFL players.  My question is this:  Do you think GMs and we as fans are over-evaluating some of these players because they come from such notable programs?  

Edited October 7, 2023 by Just Want A Title

[nagahide13]

Yes. Some of these guys are clearly a product of the system and were carried to success, IE Leatherwood, and some are the guys doing the carrying, IE Ceedee Lamb. The overall program is so successful that it often masks the weaknesses of players. Talent stands out more in a smaller school. The vision is less clear in a larger school when you can't immediately see a player's responsibilities etc.

[Sllim Pickens]

I think a lot of the guys you mentioned as busts were highly ranked but dropped during the combine/draft process once people analyzed them closer.  Cine, Nakobe Dean, Keelee Ringo and others fell further in the draft because of it. I don’t think that there are any more busts from those schools, there are just more players from those schools being drafted.  Same with Ohio St, who has plenty of busts (Okudah, Chase Young, Eli Apple etc) but they also have guys playing well.  I think it’s more about situation, coaching, and surrounding players.  Jeudy for example went to a crap situation, has had 4 coaches, his QB situation has always been rough, and turns out to be a “bust”.  Waddle and Tua end up in a solid coaching situation, add Hill and that helps everyone in that situation. Same with Achane looking better there. Same reason why so many top picks struggled in Detroit with previous regimes.  

[nagahide13]

53 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I think a lot of the guys you mentioned as busts were highly ranked but dropped during the combine/draft process once people analyzed them closer.

But a lot of them are highly ranked (before GMs get a closer look) because of the schools they went to.

https://thesportsdrop.com/articles/legends-of-alabama-football-who-fell-short-in-the-nfl/18/

The biggest busts out of Michigan are (IMO) David Terrell and Desmond Howard.

I think Alabama had kind of an unearned reputation of being an NFL factory.

[Karnage84]

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/sec-vs-power-5-position-nfl-draft-all-pro/

This is kind of old but you've got a good breakdown on conferences, positions, etc. 

[Just Want A Title]

12 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/sec-vs-power-5-position-nfl-draft-all-pro/

This is kind of old but you've got a good breakdown on conferences, positions, etc. 

That is interesting.  It seems like the SEC, while still getting players drafted, isn't the high-end talent factory it used to be.  I could be suffering somewhat biased due to Jameson Williams though.  

[Sllim Pickens]

17 hours ago, nagahide13 said:

But a lot of them are highly ranked (before GMs get a closer look) because of the schools they went to.

https://thesportsdrop.com/articles/legends-of-alabama-football-who-fell-short-in-the-nfl/18/

The biggest busts out of Michigan are (IMO) David Terrell and Desmond Howard.

I think Alabama had kind of an unearned reputation of being an NFL factory.

Michigan has had its share of busts. Taylor Lewan, Taco Charlton, Chris Perry, David Bush etc etc. 

The guys like Ringo and Dean and Nolan Smith are higher before deep dives because if stays, high school pedigree and athletic ability. They drop because of the mental aspect of the game and not being able to translate skills to the NFL. Those schools have been getting the best of the best high school prospects and have a history of developing them into NFL talent. So sure some may get the benefit of the doubt initially because of their school but it’s not like everyone from their school is being hyped as an NFL prospect.  

[Louis Friend]

Man, if being a pro bowler/Super Bowl champ like Desmond Howard or 3X pro bowler like Taylor Lewan still qualifies as busts, Michigan is damn good. 

[Sllim Pickens]

3 hours ago, Louis Friend said:

Man, if being a pro bowler/Super Bowl champ like Desmond Howard or 3X pro bowler like Taylor Lewan still qualifies as busts, Michigan is damn good. 

Desmond Howard was a Pro Bowl kick returner but was drafted 4th overall as the best skill position player in football. He made no impact as a WR and nobody would draft a kick returner at 4 overall.  
 

Lewan isn’t really a bust and had a couple solid years but fell off quick and didn’t last in the league very long.  Again you hope to have more out of a top 10 pick. 

[detfan782004]

On 10/8/2023 at 11:46 AM, Louis Friend said:

Man, if being a pro bowler/Super Bowl champ like Desmond Howard or 3X pro bowler like Taylor Lewan still qualifies as busts, Michigan is damn good. 

Right.  Lewan as a bust is an odd one...but recently UM has not put a lot of NFL talent out there.

Curious to see how JJ game computes to next level at all.  I think despite Edwards struggling in run game this year his game translates to NFL and will do okay. Not sure I see a lot of NFL talent that is superior on that roster though per say.

 

So I think the issue goes beyond like Bama etc.  All the big time programs get more players drafted so I think they will always have more busts.

[nagahide13]

16 minutes ago, detfan782004 said:

  All the big time programs get more players drafted so I think they will always have more busts.

Yea, exactly. Theoretically the bigger the program the more players are being drafted. It's also harder to mask flaws when there is no other talent around you.

[Karnage84]

		DRAFTED	HOF	HOF%	PB	PB%
1	Notre Dame	623	14	2.2%	191	30.7%
2	USC	550	14	2.5%	239	43.5%
3	Ohio State	527	8	1.5%	186	35.3%
4	Michigan	446	9	2.0%	113	25.3%
5	Penn State	427	6	1.4%	123	28.8%
6	Alabama	420	8	1.9%	139	33.1%
7	LSU	413	6	1.5%	138	33.4%
8	Oklahoma	410	3	0.7%	108	26.3%
9	Nebraksa	398	5	1.3%	89	22.4%
10	Georgia	394	5	1.3%	124	31.5%
11	Miami	390	9	2.3%	181	46.4%
12	Florida	389	2	0.5%	89	22.9%
13	Tennessee	373	3	0.8%	145	38.9%
14	UCLA	365	6	1.6%	104	28.5%
15	Texas	361	4	1.1%	123	34.1%
16	Pittsburgh	360	10	2.8%	126	35.0%
17	Wisconsin	360	4	1.1%	88	24.4%
18	Michigan State	350	3	0.9%	113	32.3%
19	Texas A&M	350	1	0.3%	109	31.1%
20	Washington	337	3	0.9%	74	22.0%
21	Florida State	332	5	1.5%	103	31.0%
22	Auburn	331	2	0.6%	70	21.1%
23	Iowa	327	5	1.5%	93	28.4%
24	Arizona State	311	5	1.6%	98	31.5%
25	Illinois	311	5	1.6%	61	19.6%

[Karnage84]

Just now, Karnage84 said:

		DRAFTED	HOF	HOF%	PB	PB%
1	Notre Dame	623	14	2.2%	191	30.7%
2	USC	550	14	2.5%	239	43.5%
3	Ohio State	527	8	1.5%	186	35.3%
4	Michigan	446	9	2.0%	113	25.3%
5	Penn State	427	6	1.4%	123	28.8%
6	Alabama	420	8	1.9%	139	33.1%
7	LSU	413	6	1.5%	138	33.4%
8	Oklahoma	410	3	0.7%	108	26.3%
9	Nebraksa	398	5	1.3%	89	22.4%
10	Georgia	394	5	1.3%	124	31.5%
11	Miami	390	9	2.3%	181	46.4%
12	Florida	389	2	0.5%	89	22.9%
13	Tennessee	373	3	0.8%	145	38.9%
14	UCLA	365	6	1.6%	104	28.5%
15	Texas	361	4	1.1%	123	34.1%
16	Pittsburgh	360	10	2.8%	126	35.0%
17	Wisconsin	360	4	1.1%	88	24.4%
18	Michigan State	350	3	0.9%	113	32.3%
19	Texas A&M	350	1	0.3%	109	31.1%
20	Washington	337	3	0.9%	74	22.0%
21	Florida State	332	5	1.5%	103	31.0%
22	Auburn	331	2	0.6%	70	21.1%
23	Iowa	327	5	1.5%	93	28.4%
24	Arizona State	311	5	1.6%	98	31.5%
25	Illinois	311	5	1.6%	61	19.6%

https://www.stadiumtalk.com/s/most-nfl-players-by-college-0f7bd615249040f1

[detfan782004]

Just now, Karnage84 said:

		DRAFTED	HOF	HOF%	PB	PB%
1	Notre Dame	623	14	2.2%	191	30.7%
2	USC	550	14	2.5%	239	43.5%
3	Ohio State	527	8	1.5%	186	35.3%
4	Michigan	446	9	2.0%	113	25.3%
5	Penn State	427	6	1.4%	123	28.8%
6	Alabama	420	8	1.9%	139	33.1%
7	LSU	413	6	1.5%	138	33.4%
8	Oklahoma	410	3	0.7%	108	26.3%
9	Nebraksa	398	5	1.3%	89	22.4%
10	Georgia	394	5	1.3%	124	31.5%
11	Miami	390	9	2.3%	181	46.4%
12	Florida	389	2	0.5%	89	22.9%
13	Tennessee	373	3	0.8%	145	38.9%
14	UCLA	365	6	1.6%	104	28.5%
15	Texas	361	4	1.1%	123	34.1%
16	Pittsburgh	360	10	2.8%	126	35.0%
17	Wisconsin	360	4	1.1%	88	24.4%
18	Michigan State	350	3	0.9%	113	32.3%
19	Texas A&M	350	1	0.3%	109	31.1%
20	Washington	337	3	0.9%	74	22.0%
21	Florida State	332	5	1.5%	103	31.0%
22	Auburn	331	2	0.6%	70	21.1%
23	Iowa	327	5	1.5%	93	28.4%
24	Arizona State	311	5	1.6%	98	31.5%
25	Illinois	311	5	1.6%	61	19.6%

Pittsburgh is interesting 

[Just Want A Title]

2 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

		DRAFTED	HOF	HOF%	PB	PB%
1	Notre Dame	623	14	2.2%	191	30.7%
2	USC	550	14	2.5%	239	43.5%
3	Ohio State	527	8	1.5%	186	35.3%
4	Michigan	446	9	2.0%	113	25.3%
5	Penn State	427	6	1.4%	123	28.8%
6	Alabama	420	8	1.9%	139	33.1%
7	LSU	413	6	1.5%	138	33.4%
8	Oklahoma	410	3	0.7%	108	26.3%
9	Nebraksa	398	5	1.3%	89	22.4%
10	Georgia	394	5	1.3%	124	31.5%
11	Miami	390	9	2.3%	181	46.4%
12	Florida	389	2	0.5%	89	22.9%
13	Tennessee	373	3	0.8%	145	38.9%
14	UCLA	365	6	1.6%	104	28.5%
15	Texas	361	4	1.1%	123	34.1%
16	Pittsburgh	360	10	2.8%	126	35.0%
17	Wisconsin	360	4	1.1%	88	24.4%
18	Michigan State	350	3	0.9%	113	32.3%
19	Texas A&M	350	1	0.3%	109	31.1%
20	Washington	337	3	0.9%	74	22.0%
21	Florida State	332	5	1.5%	103	31.0%
22	Auburn	331	2	0.6%	70	21.1%
23	Iowa	327	5	1.5%	93	28.4%
24	Arizona State	311	5	1.6%	98	31.5%
25	Illinois	311	5	1.6%	61	19.6%

Is this time-bracketed?  IF this covers the entire history of the NFL it is less indicative of recent trends.