The MVP race

[Sugashane]

1 hour ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

The case for Lamar is he's the best and most valuable player on the AFC's (arguably the NFL's) best team, and he's having a tremendous year despite not putting up touchdown numbers because Gus Edwards has vultured about a million touchdowns this year from Lamar.

Like others have said, the Christmas matchup between SF/BAL is going to determine who wins MVP most likely. If one of those guys produces a heck of a game, they'll win. If neither play great and Dak continues what he's doing, Dak will win.

Also Jackson is the leading rusher while also being the QB of the 4th highest scoring offense.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 hour ago, Sugashane said:

Also Jackson is the leading rusher while also being the QB of the 4th highest scoring offense.

And he's still playing well despite losing by far his top receiving option. Like, we're once again talking about Lamar being MVP throwing to guys that would be WR2 on almost any team, if not WR3 except maybe Zay Flowers?

Meanwhile we're talking about Purdy being MVP with CMC, Aiyuk, Deebo and Kittle while the 49ers run more than any team in the NFL????? I don't get it.

Edited December 12, 2023 by AFlaccoSeagulls

[Tank4Drake]

16 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

And he's still playing well despite losing by far his top receiving option. Like, we're once again talking about Lamar being MVP throwing to guys that would be WR2 on almost any team, if not WR3 except maybe Zay Flowers?

Meanwhile we're talking about Purdy being MVP with CMC, Aiyuk, Deebo and Kittle while the 49ers run more than any team in the NFL????? I don't get it.

Supporting cast does not matter for MVP and never has. The most impressive and most efficient QB in the playoffs, preferably a Top 2 seed (but doesn’t have to be) will win the award. 

[Forge]

22 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Meanwhile we're talking about Purdy being MVP with CMC, Aiyuk, Deebo and Kittle while the 49ers run more than any team in the NFL????? I don't get it.

Because his numbers are almost historic. 

So you have one guy with depressed numbers but limited supporting cast, and another putting up some insane numbers that largely win MVP every time but with possibly the best supporting cast. Both types win mvps

I've also already responded to your comment about running the ball. Their neutral situation pass frequency isn't at the bottom. 

Edit

And as mentioned by @Tank4Drake, I'm not sure supporting cast has ever been a determining factor in the award. Mvps typically play for some of the best teams in the league which means that they typically have a lot of talent

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

22 minutes ago, Forge said:

Because his numbers are almost historic. 

So you have one guy with depressed numbers but limited supporting cast, and another putting up some insane numbers that largely win MVP every time but with possibly the best supporting cast. Both types win mvps

I've also already responded to your comment about running the ball. Their neutral situation pass frequency isn't at the bottom. 

Edit

And as mentioned by @Tank4Drake, I'm not sure supporting cast has ever been a determining factor in the award. Mvps typically play for some of the best teams in the league which means that they typically have a lot of talent

To me this is the same argument in the MLB as saying Shohei Ohtani shouldn't win MVP over Corey Seager when you also have Marcus Semien and like 3 other guys who were MVP candidates.

I get that it's not most valuable. But Brock Purdy is not having a historic season for a QB unless you're only looking at YPA, which is largely boosted thanks to the guy who is having a historic season, CMC.

I will say no more on this subject. The christmas game is going to be very telling and that'll pretty much solve this debate.

[bigbadbuff]

If we took one player off a team what would cause the biggest impact?

 

I know that’s not how the award has ever worked, but it’s how it should.

[BlockForTom]

Who's the betting favorite, as of today?

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

9 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

If we took one player off a team what would cause the biggest impact?

 

I know that’s not how the award has ever worked, but it’s how it should.

People would just argue X team has a better backup QB so Y player isn't as much of a loss as Z player. Like, it's not Baltimore's fault we have 2 Pro Bowl QB's!

[Forge]

11 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

To me this is the same argument in the MLB as saying Shohei Ohtani shouldn't win MVP over Corey Seager when you also have Marcus Semien and like 3 other guys who were MVP candidates.

I get that it's not most valuable. But Brock Purdy is not having a historic season for a QB unless you're only looking at YPA, which is largely boosted thanks to the guy who is having a historic season, CMC.

I will say no more on this subject. The christmas game is going to be very telling and that'll pretty much solve this debate.

He's got a top 5 dvoa season of all time right now, any/a, yards per attempt, epa and success rate. Those latter two are higher than Manning's were in 2013. 

Now, people can be pshaw those because some of them are "newfangled stats", but they are gaining far greater acceptance in the NFL narrative. The nerds are taking over. 

[Forge]

21 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

If we took one player off a team what would cause the biggest impact?

 

I know that’s not how the award has ever worked, but it’s how it should.

I'd be very bored giving it to Mahomes every year, tbh. 

[Forge]

18 minutes ago, BlockForTom said:

Who's the betting favorite, as of today?

Dak Prescott 

[Forge]

Its important to note that if you really think about the voting process, there's almost no way that Purdy will win it. Back in the day, I could have seen some form of split vote where a bunch of people voted for Purdy but also a bunch of people who would never put him in the top 5. But not being in their top 5 was immaterial. It was a more binary voting process, so if you have 50 voters, you could 100% have 19 people vote Purdy, 16 for Dak, 15 for Lamar and Purdy would win the award.  It wouldn't matter if 20 of those voters wouldn't have even had Purdy on their top 5 ballot. 

Now they have to do a 5 man ballot. So now those people who aren't going to put Purdy in their top 5 (and I imagine that there will be a decent number of them) will basically crush his chances anyway even if he somehow managed to get the most first place votes (which I don't think will happen anyway). 

[bigbadbuff]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

I'd be very bored giving it to Mahomes every year, tbh. 

hey we saw Chad Henne close out a playoff game!!

[The BILLievers]

3 hours ago, jg77 said:

I'd rather give it to the guy who's team is 10-3 with the ghost of OBJ, a rookie WR, and oh they're also missing their 2nd best player in Mark Andrews than the guy w/ Cmac, Aiyuk, and Deebo...and also the best offensive minded coach in all of football.

I hate to break it to you but that’s not how the MVP works and they don’t put footnotes like that in the record book lol. He has 21 total TDs with 4 games left, he’s not going to win MVP. 

[The BILLievers]

1 hour ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

To me this is the same argument in the MLB as saying Shohei Ohtani shouldn't win MVP over Corey Seager when you also have Marcus Semien and like 3 other guys who were MVP candidates.

I get that it's not most valuable. But Brock Purdy is not having a historic season for a QB unless you're only looking at YPA, which is largely boosted thanks to the guy who is having a historic season, CMC.

I will say no more on this subject. The christmas game is going to be very telling and that'll pretty much solve this debate.

If Purdy falters during that game, Dak will then be the easy shoe in imo.