Trevor Lawrence and the Jags - Year 4 (T-Law is what he is)

[Tugboat]

2 minutes ago, Soggust said:

Can’t speak for all haters but some of us believe you guys are battered spouses suffering from Stockholm Syndrome lol. 

Blink twice if Trevor fumbles at home again. 


fyi - obv joking here but enough shades of truth in how I feel that you are still welcome to use me as an example and destroy me lol.

 

😆

I mean, it's not entirely unfair to think that i guess.  But seriously...in following the Jaguars since their inception, this is genuinely the first time i've ever felt like, "This is the QB who can get it done".

 

They can hilariously close with Bortles.  But that was wholly in spite of his crappy Quarterbacking.  They took the ball out of his hands, put it in Playoff Lenny's grip and leaned on an actually historically good defense.

 

They've made high picks at QB but never once was there any degree of confidence that Gabbert would turn into "The Guy".  It was much more of that coping talk.  Well, maybe he's not as bad as he seems?  Maybe he'll miraculously completely change his fundamental flaws?  That sort of excuse-making.

 

That's why i still feel like when Jaguars fans (who are very experienced experts in bad QB play) are suddenly all very confident on a guy...there's probably something there.   He's just had a really jacked up, unsupported mess of path through these early years.  It's not that he's just an undeniable force without flaws...but when you see where his shortcomings are, most of them are things that can be easily rectified if you build a proper roster around him.

 

He's played through a year of Urban Meyer as a rookie.  The most stunningly unprepared, unconcerned coach...possibly ever at the NFL level.  He's played through bad OLines and Mediocre OLines that underperform.  He's played without anything ever resembling a true #1 Weapon while developing.  Even guys like Mahomes had elite "security blankets" while they were developing.

When you watch the Jaguars games (the ones where he's not injured and concussed - which unfortunately comprise much of the primetime stage) and you can see him just screaming out for a particular type of receiving target that he simply does not have.  Leading high and outside.  It's not an accident that Engram has blossomed into a top TE as a target there.  He's a QB who likes to throw to big catch radius targets with sticky hands.  He's far more of a "gunslinger" than i think most people projected him as coming out.  He's got huge confidence in his arm to fit it into windows...that the receivers aren't capable of coming down with.  But i don't think that means he can't be "The Guy".

 

I still fully believe he can can be a Top-5 Elite Quarterback.  He just needs a little help.  Or more accurately...he needs things tailored a little better to his game, as good teams always do for top QBs.

[El Ramster]

@Tugboatprolly because he was hyped as the best qb prospect since luck and it wasn’t close. He should be lighting the league on fire, I think he’s a good qb frankly. But he’s left a lot to be desired. Fair or not there’s expectations and he hasn’t met them. It’s not like the jaguars devoid of talent either. From an outsiders perspective and they also happen to play in one of the easiest/weakest divisions in a while. 

[Tugboat]

18 minutes ago, El Ramster said:

@Tugboatprolly because he was hyped as the best qb prospect since luck and it wasn’t close. He should be lighting the league on fire, I think he’s a good qb frankly. But he’s left a lot to be desired. Fair or not there’s expectations and he hasn’t met them. It’s not like the jaguars devoid of talent either. From an outsiders perspective and they also happen to play in one of the easiest/weakest divisions in a while. 

I mean...the expectations are one thing.  Maybe they got out of hand as a "generational prospect".  Who knows.  But he's shown that he's capable of being "That Guy" who could be a Top-5 QB in stretches.  It's just been a lot less consistent and linear than you'd hope for.  But that's prospects.  That's almost every QB prospect...where they have ups and downs, especially if they're in tumultuous situations.

 

I'd like to remind you that, prior to Lawrence getting all ****ed up in Primetime...the Jaguars were absolutely cruising through not just the (weak) division, but en route to the potential #1 Seed in the entire AFC.  The way they fell off the map and completely out of the playoffs altogether once Lawrence got dinged up should tell you something about just how good he actually is.  How important he is to what the Jaguars had rolling.

It may sound like an excuse if you're not paying close attention.  But the way things fell apart without him at the top of his game, in and out of the lineup, dealing with multiple injuries at once...it really highlighted just how far the Jaguars roster is from "actually good".  He was carrying it.  CJ Beatherd being a particularly useless backup notwithstanding...even Lawrence at 50% wasn't able to get anything done with that supporting cast.  It's not a good, talented offense around him and the defense was completely bipolar.  He hasn't had the help.  The receiving core in particular hasn't been built well.  OLine has been constantly injured and mostly underperformed.

 

Contrast it with "top QB Burrow" struggling to play at less than 100% health.  Looking extremely average as well.  And then Browning coming in out of nowhere and showing that the Bengals talent is probably actually very good offensively.

I get that a lot of people are going to hold Lawrence to a different standard because of the draft hype...but there's been very little evidence that he wouldn't be able to run show if you gave him weapons like Chase and Higgins and let him loose, completely healthy.

[El Ramster]

4 hours ago, Tugboat said:

I mean...the expectations are one thing.  Maybe they got out of hand as a "generational prospect".  Who knows.  But he's shown that he's capable of being "That Guy" who could be a Top-5 QB in stretches.  It's just been a lot less consistent and linear than you'd hope for.  But that's prospects.  That's almost every QB prospect...where they have ups and downs, especially if they're in tumultuous situations.

 

I'd like to remind you that, prior to Lawrence getting all ****ed up in Primetime...the Jaguars were absolutely cruising through not just the (weak) division, but en route to the potential #1 Seed in the entire AFC.  The way they fell off the map and completely out of the playoffs altogether once Lawrence got dinged up should tell you something about just how good he actually is.  How important he is to what the Jaguars had rolling.

It may sound like an excuse if you're not paying close attention.  But the way things fell apart without him at the top of his game, in and out of the lineup, dealing with multiple injuries at once...it really highlighted just how far the Jaguars roster is from "actually good".  He was carrying it.  CJ Beatherd being a particularly useless backup notwithstanding...even Lawrence at 50% wasn't able to get anything done with that supporting cast.  It's not a good, talented offense around him and the defense was completely bipolar.  He hasn't had the help.  The receiving core in particular hasn't been built well.  OLine has been constantly injured and mostly underperformed.

 

Contrast it with "top QB Burrow" struggling to play at less than 100% health.  Looking extremely average as well.  And then Browning coming in out of nowhere and showing that the Bengals talent is probably actually very good offensively.

I get that a lot of people are going to hold Lawrence to a different standard because of the draft hype...but there's been very little evidence that he wouldn't be able to run show if you gave him weapons like Chase and Higgins and let him loose, completely healthy.

You can’t fault or punish a org for putting talent around their stud Qb. You still have to play well and burrow is without a question a top 3 QB in the NFL. Lawrence has the potential to play like a top 5 QB but he hasn’t shown he can do it for a whole season. 
 

21 TDS and 14 int hardly screams elite QB. That screams Jenny G or Geno Smith. 16 game sample. Burrow would have had 3 straight seasons of growing for 34 TDS while dealing with a really bad injury as well. Ended the season 15-6 with 10 games. 
 

Lawrence highest is 25. Which again is pretty meh. Think Jax goes as far as the Defense takes them going into the future. Unless Tlaw becomes that guy and starts dropping 32-6 every year… He gets mad respect and credit for the comeback last year in the post season but it was his fault they were in that hole in the first place with 4 Ints? 

[Soggust]

14 hours ago, Tugboat said:

 

😆

I mean, it's not entirely unfair to think that i guess.  But seriously...in following the Jaguars since their inception, this is genuinely the first time i've ever felt like, "This is the QB who can get it done".

 

They can hilariously close with Bortles.  But that was wholly in spite of his crappy Quarterbacking.  They took the ball out of his hands, put it in Playoff Lenny's grip and leaned on an actually historically good defense.

 

They've made high picks at QB but never once was there any degree of confidence that Gabbert would turn into "The Guy".  It was much more of that coping talk.  Well, maybe he's not as bad as he seems?  Maybe he'll miraculously completely change his fundamental flaws?  That sort of excuse-making.

 

That's why i still feel like when Jaguars fans (who are very experienced experts in bad QB play) are suddenly all very confident on a guy...there's probably something there.   He's just had a really jacked up, unsupported mess of path through these early years.  It's not that he's just an undeniable force without flaws...but when you see where his shortcomings are, most of them are things that can be easily rectified if you build a proper roster around him.

 

He's played through a year of Urban Meyer as a rookie.  The most stunningly unprepared, unconcerned coach...possibly ever at the NFL level.  He's played through bad OLines and Mediocre OLines that underperform.  He's played without anything ever resembling a true #1 Weapon while developing.  Even guys like Mahomes had elite "security blankets" while they were developing.

When you watch the Jaguars games (the ones where he's not injured and concussed - which unfortunately comprise much of the primetime stage) and you can see him just screaming out for a particular type of receiving target that he simply does not have.  Leading high and outside.  It's not an accident that Engram has blossomed into a top TE as a target there.  He's a QB who likes to throw to big catch radius targets with sticky hands.  He's far more of a "gunslinger" than i think most people projected him as coming out.  He's got huge confidence in his arm to fit it into windows...that the receivers aren't capable of coming down with.  But i don't think that means he can't be "The Guy".

 

I still fully believe he can can be a Top-5 Elite Quarterback.  He just needs a little help.  Or more accurately...he needs things tailored a little better to his game, as good teams always do for top QBs.

Forgive me if I already made this argument earlier ITT and im too lazy to go back. I always repeat all the same crap arguments anyway so it's in line with my persona.

Here's the problem I have with Lawrence -

Trevor has 3 years. I look at them broadly as the following, but feel free to disagree:

2021: Top 40 QB
2022: Top 10 QB
2023: Top 25 QB

Now, you say he's capable of being a top 5 QB, and I don't necessarily disagree. But tell me this - What are your expectations for next year? How many ranges of outcomes are you really going to be excited about next year?

Now you might take the 5th year option regardless, but if he has another top 25ish year - I think you have to really start considering moving on. 

If he finishes with a top 10-15 year, you are excited because of the progression, but its 4 years without being an elite QB and there will certainly be questions about "can you win a SB with this guy?". We see this already with better QBs like Lamar, Dak, etc.

If he does finish with a top 5 year, I think you are excited, but you're not going to want to pay him top 5 money, because he's only got 1/4 years of elite production. Ideally, you could get him cheaper, but TL might not look at it that way, coming off such a big year. But let's just ignore that and say that's a good problem to have and acknowledge - that's the ideal scenario.

If he gets injured, I think you are in a really gross spot because this exercise gets even worse next year.

Maybe you disagree with my logic here, but if you do agree - then essentially Trevor needs to have a top 5 year next year or you are going to be concerned going forward, right? Is there any season (maybe short of a MVP + SB) he can have that would get you excited to pay him to a big money QB contract? Even if he wins MVP?

Those seem like pretty lofty expectations, given his career to date. I think the Daniel Jones contract situation comparisons seem pretty fair, although I like TL better than Jones through 3 years.

The extension of this thought is that - If we are not comfortable giving him a big money contract and are hoping to get him on a Daniel Jones type deal, are we really expecting him to be that elite franchise QB who can carry the team? 

Now I personally believe you can win a SB with an average QB, but that's not a common perspective and certainly you need some strong support around and some luck. And it's certainly a vast deviation from what we expected Trevor to be, as others have mentioned. 

Edited February 17 by Soggust

[sparky151]

Eh, thinking Lawrence can be a top 5 QB seems pretty delusional to me. If we say the current top 5 are Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, and Jackson, then which of those gets bumped for Lawrence? And how does he jump past Tua, Dak, Rodgers, Stafford, Purdy, etc? I'd give him a mulligan for 2021 but he regressed in 2023 and wasn't close to a top 10 QB. 

Most people would take Stroud ahead of Lawrence and maybe a majority would prefer Richardson. I'd take TL over Levis but Lawrence may only be the 3rd best QB in his division. 

[Soggust]

1 minute ago, sparky151 said:

Eh, thinking Lawrence can be a top 5 QB seems pretty delusional to me. If we say the current top 5 are Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, and Jackson, then which of those gets bumped for Lawrence? And how does he jump past Tua, Dak, Rodgers, Stafford, Purdy, etc? I'd give him a mulligan for 2021 but he regressed in 2023 and wasn't close to a top 10 QB. 

Most people would take Stroud ahead of Lawrence and maybe a majority would prefer Richardson. I'd take TL over Levis but Lawrence may only be the 3rd best QB in his division. 

Don't disagree, but just to clarify, I was framing it in my mind (not what I wrote though so I understand your response) and I believe Tugboat was as well (don't mean to speak for him), as having a top 5 year vs being a top 5 QB.

Like, being a top 5 QB for a year. Kind of the Purdy argument, if you will.

But you make a very good point that, apart from MVP or MVP + SB, it's going to be hard to label TL as a "top 5 QB" overall in the foreseeable future.  

[Tugboat]

12 hours ago, El Ramster said:

You can’t fault or punish a org for putting talent around their stud Qb. You still have to play well and burrow is without a question a top 3 QB in the NFL. Lawrence has the potential to play like a top 5 QB but he hasn’t shown he can do it for a whole season. 
 

21 TDS and 14 int hardly screams elite QB. That screams Jenny G or Geno Smith. 16 game sample. Burrow would have had 3 straight seasons of growing for 34 TDS while dealing with a really bad injury as well. Ended the season 15-6 with 10 games. 
 

Lawrence highest is 25. Which again is pretty meh. Think Jax goes as far as the Defense takes them going into the future. Unless Tlaw becomes that guy and starts dropping 32-6 every year… He gets mad respect and credit for the comeback last year in the post season but it was his fault they were in that hole in the first place with 4 Ints? 

I'm not faulting teams for putting talent around their stud QBs.  I'm just faulting the Jaguars for not really doing that with Lawrence.  Indicating that not doing so has had an impact on his numbers.  Since it appears we're really just stat scouting here.

 

When you throw out 21TD - 14INT, it shows that you aren't really accounting for context.  For example...7 of those 14 INTs (literally half of them) came in his last 4 games.  Where he was clearly playing injured.  With multiple things affecting him.  A bum leg and a concussion that he never seemed to be completely recovered from.  He just looked visibly "off" even when he was cleared to return.  The timing, rhythm, ball placement...everything just looked off.  Almost "rusty".

So if you assume a TD-INT ratio more in line with what he was doing through the rest of the serious previously, before he incurred multiple significant injuries...suddenly that stat line looks very different.

 

Which is what i'm saying about Lawrence in general.  If you're just stat scouting it, i can appreciate where that line doesn't look very good.  But watching the actual player and considering context...this isn't just Jaguars fans being delusional and deep in denial about him.  He has been a very good QB with flashes of absolutely elite play that elevates everyone around him.  He's also had absolute clunkers like that Niners game.  There's inconsistency there, no doubt.  But when a QB plays at a very high average level, with flashes of that elite upside he was drafted on...you live with and hope that he can eventually iron out some of those absolute stinker games as he's still clearly a QB who is developing.  His tumultuous development has made him far less of a "what you see is what you get" finished product at this point.  Appreciable growth is still happening (or was happening prior to his injuries).  That also tends to come with moments or even entire games of regression, where development is rarely perfectly linear.  But he bounced back from things like that Niners dud, and that's why there's absolute zero panic about him. 

He's still very much "the guy".  It just hasn't been as smooth and instant a slam dunk as the draft hype made it sound like it'd be.  Though that was always a kind of unrealistic expectation.  Especially given where the Jaguars were at as a franchise, and the hysterical depths of organizational ineptitude they were about to engage in.  Very few of even "The Greats" just step in straight out of the draft and immediately become All Pros that turn the team around instantly.

[Tugboat]

5 hours ago, Soggust said:

Forgive me if I already made this argument earlier ITT and im too lazy to go back. I always repeat all the same crap arguments anyway so it's in line with my persona.

Here's the problem I have with Lawrence -

Trevor has 3 years. I look at them broadly as the following, but feel free to disagree:

2021: Top 40 QB
2022: Top 10 QB
2023: Top 25 QB

Now, you say he's capable of being a top 5 QB, and I don't necessarily disagree. But tell me this - What are your expectations for next year? How many ranges of outcomes are you really going to be excited about next year?

Now you might take the 5th year option regardless, but if he has another top 25ish year - I think you have to really start considering moving on. 

If he finishes with a top 10-15 year, you are excited because of the progression, but its 4 years without being an elite QB and there will certainly be questions about "can you win a SB with this guy?". We see this already with better QBs like Lamar, Dak, etc.

If he does finish with a top 5 year, I think you are excited, but you're not going to want to pay him top 5 money, because he's only got 1/4 years of elite production. Ideally, you could get him cheaper, but TL might not look at it that way, coming off such a big year. But let's just ignore that and say that's a good problem to have and acknowledge - that's the ideal scenario.

If he gets injured, I think you are in a really gross spot because this exercise gets even worse next year.

Maybe you disagree with my logic here, but if you do agree - then essentially Trevor needs to have a top 5 year next year or you are going to be concerned going forward, right? Is there any season (maybe short of a MVP + SB) he can have that would get you excited to pay him to a big money QB contract? Even if he wins MVP?

Those seem like pretty lofty expectations, given his career to date. I think the Daniel Jones contract situation comparisons seem pretty fair, although I like TL better than Jones through 3 years.

The extension of this thought is that - If we are not comfortable giving him a big money contract and are hoping to get him on a Daniel Jones type deal, are we really expecting him to be that elite franchise QB who can carry the team? 

Now I personally believe you can win a SB with an average QB, but that's not a common perspective and certainly you need some strong support around and some luck. And it's certainly a vast deviation from what we expected Trevor to be, as others have mentioned. 

 

See, i think before i even comment on "expectations for next year", i have to clarify that i don't really agree with that assessment of Lawrence past performance.

Calling him a Top-40 QB even in that disaster rookie year mess, is underselling the impact he had.  Even in the middle of a hurricane of ****, he was much better than "Top-40".  😆

Following that up with a Top-10 season once things were stabilized a bit was not nearly as surprising to Jaguars fans as it apparently was to some other outside folks.  That was really just seeing some of the flickers materialize more consistently.

Then this past year...calling him Top-25 is where i just really fundamentally do not agree.  I think a lot of people are putting wayyyyyyyy too much emphasis or importance on that collapse in his game during those last 4 starts where he was dealing with a clearly bum leg, and also recovering from a concussion...and looked like a clearly different QB than he'd been through the rest of the year previously.  Prior to getting jacked up in that Bengals game...he'd looked very much the part of a comfortably Top-10 QB to me.  Especially given his supporting cast who he made look a lot better than they are.  He had a couple games, notably that Niners debacle where he just completely derped out (as did the whole team really) and looked utterly lost.  So it obviously wasn't just smooth sailing.  But on the whole, he looked easily Top-10 most of the time, and even bounced back well from that disaster game.

 

So my expectations for next year, are that he gets healthy and gets things back on the rails to pick up where he left off in the first 3/4ths of the season, and hopefully continues to build and grow from there.  But even if Top-10 QB is his cap, that's still easily a guy worth building around.  Especially when that comes with some bonus games where he's talented enough to play like a Top-5 QB, and when it matters most (as in the second half of the playoff win he absolutely carried the team to). 

If he comes back next year and looks like he did his last 4 games of this season, then sure...we've got a problem.  But it was such a clearly delineated downfall after the injuries, where he just did not look like the same QB at all.  He looked uncomfortable and just completely "off" in every way.  Shouldn't have even been playing...but how hopeless and demoralized the team looked without him, pressed them to play him.  Because he's that important to them.  I just really don't think that's Lawrence's actual level of play.  I'm supremely confident that when he gets healthy and has a chance to reset...he'll get right back to what he was doing.  And hopefully with some more suitable weapons and surrounding cast, to continue to elevate his game and maybe even post some stats that will shut people up.  lol.

 

As for the 5th year option, it's not even a question.  There's very little he could do next year to make that anything but an automatic.  If he has a Top-5 type of year...i'd have no issues handing him the bag accordingly.  I'd view that as more or less just right on the overall trend line of his development.  That development curve just happens to have a few little incidental dips in it, but is overall still very much trending up solidly imo.

 

But that's this thing where i suppose primarily from just scouting the statlines...a lot of people seem to be under this mistaken impression that Lawrence seriously regressed this season.  When he really didn't overall...until he got hammered by injuries that clearly hampered his performance.  There was still inconsistency from game to game, and some of that shows up in the stats.  You want to see that cleaned up at some point...but even guys like Josh Allen, MVP Lamar Jackson, etc. have that issue (basically everyone but Mahomes). 

 

I just find it really funny that so many other fans are intent on telling Jaguars fans that they should be worried and thinking about potentially moving on from Lawrence...when you'd be hard pressed to find actual Jaguars fans who are particularly concerned about it at all.  😆

Especially when you see so many teams desperately settling for Top-20QB play at best, just hoping their guy doesn't completely suck.

[Tugboat]

4 hours ago, sparky151 said:

Eh, thinking Lawrence can be a top 5 QB seems pretty delusional to me. If we say the current top 5 are Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, and Jackson, then which of those gets bumped for Lawrence? And how does he jump past Tua, Dak, Rodgers, Stafford, Purdy, etc? I'd give him a mulligan for 2021 but he regressed in 2023 and wasn't close to a top 10 QB. 

Most people would take Stroud ahead of Lawrence and maybe a majority would prefer Richardson. I'd take TL over Levis but Lawrence may only be the 3rd best QB in his division. 

I don't see it as that outlandish at all.  I wouldn't say it's any kind of a guarantee...but the reality is, Lawrence has had periods where he has absolutely played at a comparable level to those guys (save for Mahomes who is clearly in a tier of his own at this point).  The consistency certainly isn't there to establish himself as amongst that conversation as yet.  But the headroom is abundantly there to do so, if he does hone that consistency.  Which is even still an issue with guys in that Allen/Burrow/Herbert/Jackson group.  They're all capable of laying down a stinker here and there.  They've shown that Top-5 level more, and with the dips less pronounced and less frequent.

 

As for those other names to leapfrog...Rodgers and Stafford really don't have much longer left in them (especially AARon who is questionable as even being all that good anymore without anything to go on this year and who knows how his crystals will get him healed up for next year).  Guys like Tua and Purdy can have "Top-5 Seasons" but i think there are huge questions around Tua and how much of that is him being a Top-5QB vs just an insane amount of talent in a score happy offensive scheme designed to run up the statlines on bad teams in the regular season.  Purdy made a compelling case that it's not just the immense surrounding talent and extremely friendly scheme, but those questions are still going to persist until he proves he can do it repeatedly.  Dak certainly stoked the fires questioning whether he's anything resembling a Top5 QB with another playoff dud delivered and a lack of real year-to-year consistency in terms of knowing how many INTs he might throw.

 

Stroud complicates things, but again...it's one great season.  That arrow is point up for sure, but it's pointing up from one single data point.  It looks likely, but it's far from a guarantee that he's just going to cruise straight upward into the Top-5 conversation.

As for suggesting "a majority would prefer Richardson"...that's just ******* laughable.  Like just completely insane.  The dude has played like 4 NFL games...which certainly don't even come close to eclipsing what Lawrence has done over more prolonged stretches than that.  I can't tell if that's because you're obscenely, unfoundedly high on Richardson...or if you're just that absurdly low on Lawrence.  Getting the impression it may be a heavy dose of the latter, where you're just completely misreading what Lawrence has actually been as an NFL Quarterback because the statline isn't pretty enough or something.  In which case, i'd probably have a better chance of convincing a brick wall to be more reasonable in it's assessment of Trevor Lawrence.  😆

[Soggust]

  

9 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

 

See, i think before i even comment on "expectations for next year", i have to clarify that i don't really agree with that assessment of Lawrence past performance.

Calling him a Top-40 QB even in that disaster rookie year mess, is underselling the impact he had.  Even in the middle of a hurricane of ****, he was much better than "Top-40".  😆

Following that up with a Top-10 season once things were stabilized a bit was not nearly as surprising to Jaguars fans as it apparently was to some other outside folks.  That was really just seeing some of the flickers materialize more consistently.

Then this past year...calling him Top-25 is where i just really fundamentally do not agree.  I think a lot of people are putting wayyyyyyyy too much emphasis or importance on that collapse in his game during those last 4 starts where he was dealing with a clearly bum leg, and also recovering from a concussion...and looked like a clearly different QB than he'd been through the rest of the year previously.  Prior to getting jacked up in that Bengals game...he'd looked very much the part of a comfortably Top-10 QB to me.  Especially given his supporting cast who he made look a lot better than they are.  He had a couple games, notably that Niners debacle where he just completely derped out (as did the whole team really) and looked utterly lost.  So it obviously wasn't just smooth sailing.  But on the whole, he looked easily Top-10 most of the time, and even bounced back well from that disaster game.

I'm only going by stats, I'm not breaking apart situations and playing the context game because I don't want to have to do that with every QB in the NFL.

I'm not trying to be unfair to Trevor, I'm just also not trying to be unfair to others.

If we say "hey that top 40 year really wasn't so bad because of Meyer", fine, but statistically it was - and eventually year after year of making excuses is why people don't value TL the same way you do.

  

8 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

Prior to getting jacked up in that Bengals game...he'd looked very much the part of a comfortably Top-10 QB to me.  

He had 15 totTD : 11 TO and a 92.0 rating at 270ish totYpg prior to the Bengals game.

That's not top 10 numbers, my friend.

 

12 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

So my expectations for next year, are that he gets healthy and gets things back on the rails to pick up where he left off in the first 3/4ths of the season

Don't think you want a TD:TO ratio like that, honestly.

 

12 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

But even if Top-10 QB is his cap, that's still easily a guy worth building around.  Especially when that comes with some bonus games where he's talented enough to play like a Top-5 QB, and when it matters most (as in the second half of the playoff win he absolutely carried the team to). 

Agree with top 10 being worth building around, but I don't think any game with 4 picks is an example of top 5 QB play.

 

16 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

But that's this thing where i suppose primarily from just scouting the statlines...a lot of people seem to be under this mistaken impression that Lawrence seriously regressed this season.  When he really didn't overall...until he got hammered by injuries that clearly hampered his performance.  There was still inconsistency from game to game, and some of that shows up in the stats.  You want to see that cleaned up at some point...but even guys like Josh Allen, MVP Lamar Jackson, etc. have that issue (basically everyone but Mahomes). 

Trevor turned the ball over way too much this season. Even prior to the Bengals game. I think you would have to agree with that.

I'm not even saying the guy is washed or cut him or trade him. His yardage was good, he's just not been great to this point in his career in producing TDs and has turned the ball over too much. I think the idea that he was top 10 until injury is only looking at your QB in the best light and looking at every other guy without the benefit of that. 

 

14 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

I just find it really funny that so many other fans are intent on telling Jaguars fans that they should be worried and thinking about potentially moving on from Lawrence...when you'd be hard pressed to find actual Jaguars fans who are particularly concerned about it at all.  😆

Especially when you see so many teams desperately settling for Top-20QB play at best, just hoping their guy doesn't completely suck.

100% mean this respectfully but I think this is exactly what you're doing though lol.

[Soko]

5 hours ago, sparky151 said:

Eh, thinking Lawrence can be a top 5 QB seems pretty delusional to me. If we say the current top 5 are Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, and Jackson, then which of those gets bumped for Lawrence?

Herbert, for sure. The place I’m at with the Herbert/Chargers bandwagon is the exact opposite of the Mahomes/Chiefs bandwagon, for me - I won’t put a shred of promise or optimism in him/them until I see it happen on the field, and not a second sooner. 

5 hours ago, sparky151 said:

And how does he jump past Tua, Dak, Rodgers, Stafford, Purdy, etc? 

I mean, I’m not putting my money on it happening necessarily, but it’s not like he has to take each of these guys on individually. If he puts up a big season next year, conceivably he could be seen as better than any one of them. Jumping past all of them at once takes the same amount of effort as being better than each one individually. 

[Dr A W Niloc]

The "talent" surrounding Trevor remains atrocious.  Jacksonville is the most predictable, strength of schedule sensitive team in the AFC.  The Jags had a soft schedule in 2022 that hit the rocks in 2023, with Trevor facing the second toughest opponents in football.  Next year the team confronts .512 opponents (9th hardest), which will be a challenge with Indianapolis and Houston improving so dramatically.

If they add some offensive support in the preseason I wouldn't hesitate to take Lawrence at his Average Draft Position.

[Tugboat]

15 minutes ago, Soggust said:

  

I'm only going by stats, I'm not breaking apart situations and playing the context game because I don't want to have to do that with every QB in the NFL.

I'm not trying to be unfair to Trevor, I'm just also not trying to be unfair to others.

If we say "hey that top 40 year really wasn't so bad because of Meyer", fine, but statistically it was - and eventually year after year of making excuses is why people don't value TL the same way you do.

  

He had 15 totTD : 11 TO and a 92.0 rating at 270ish totYpg prior to the Bengals game.

That's not top 10 numbers, my friend.

 

Don't think you want a TD:TO ratio like that, honestly.

 

Agree with top 10 being worth building around, but I don't think any game with 4 picks is an example of top 5 QB play.

 

Trevor turned the ball over way too much this season. Even prior to the Bengals game. I think you would have to agree with that.

I'm not even saying the guy is washed or cut him or trade him. His yardage was good, he's just not been great to this point in his career in producing TDs and has turned the ball over too much. I think the idea that he was top 10 until injury is only looking at your QB in the best light and looking at every other guy without the benefit of that. 

 

100% mean this respectfully but I think this is exactly what you're doing though lol.

 

Again though.  If you're just looking blindly at the statlines without context, it's hard to really take that opinion that Trevor Lawrence is no good, and they should be super worried about it and fretting over whether they should even pick up his 5th year option or bother extending him and maybe just think about moving on, at all seriously.

 

For one, that's not accounting for the value he actually adds with rushing TDs (which is sneaky good).  And even looking at that Bengals game...he piled on another trio of TDs without an INT before he limped off the field, down the tunnel, and was gimped for the rest of the year.  Which again, moves the needle if you're just looking at the statline up to the point that he was clearly hindered by injuries.  Suddenly the statline "Pre Injury" is 18TD combined - 7INTs (or 14TD - 7INTs passing).  That's not sterling shining perfection, but it's not bad at all considering what he was working with.  Yes, there are some lost fumbles to account for somewhere in there (though i think people are thinking of the absolutely bizarre one in primetime and imagining he's normally that careless with the football which is hyperbolic to say the least).  But that also includes the epic collapse game against the Niners where absolutely nothing good happened.  One of those, "throwaway" games that even Top-5 QBs sometimes have.  Big Top-5 Joshy had one to open the year against the Jets, and others where he seemed determined to give the game away.

It's also important to realize that contrary to popular belief...the Jaguars receivers actually suck.  Very hard.  They also had like 1.5 viable Redzone targets.  Engram was always just blanketed, leaving ETN leaking out of the backfield as a sometimes option...and the rest of the receivers are just *** in compressed field situations and contested catches like that.

And that's on top of the fact that, despite missing time and playing out the end of the season completely gimped...and with a garbage receiving core, he still managed to land an ~Top-10 season when it comes to yardage.  Which isn't the end-all, be-all of QB play...but it's yet another reason that the Jaguars are still very bullish and optimistic on Lawrence and his upside.  He can move the ball, at a very high level.  Perception is coming around to the idea that he's far more of a gunslinger than expected, but is there really anything wrong with that?  Great gunslingers can win you a lot more games than they lose for you.

 

I get that it's fudging things a little bit in terms of moving things around to accommodate for Lawrence context, that isn't necessarily being done with other QBs.  I understand how that comes across as "excuse making".  But it's a more accurate representation of how he actually played, and an explanation of why Jaguars fans aren't so skittish on his numbers and actually still have a large amount of optimism about him, compared to outsiders who aren't considering that stuff.

I'm probably not going to convince you to look beyond the stats and believe that Lawrence was playing at a level higher than your statistical estimation showed.  That's asking a lot.  But i'd hope to at least explain to you why this "henny penny the sky is falling" bull**** about Lawrence being a mediocre QB destined for a future as an average or below average QB is completely lost on the people who actually watch the guy and still accept him as the clear future of the franchise.

 

That's what it is.  It's an "explanation".  Not "excuses".

Trust me, Jaguars fans are intimately familiar with "excuses" for a mediocre Top-20 at best QB.  Bortles got "excuses" and some fans talking themselves into him being "good enough".  Gabbert even got excuses that were brilliantly flimsy and transparently desperate.  Garrard got excuses like, "well he's pretty responsible with the ball i guess - maybe we can win by just pounding the rock and playing good defense".  Leftwich got excuses briefly, but equally flimsy.  Even Brunell got excuses.  But it was always just framed in terms of, "maybe they're good enough if all these things fall just right and you just stack everything else around them".

Lawrence is getting "Explanations".  It has a completely different tone to it.  It's not tinged with dissatisfaction, frustration, and just dangerous levels of "coping" and "denial".  It's colored by optimism because he's shown stretches of play that are far and away the best quarterbacking that the franchise has ever seen.  The sort of thing that fans can envision legitimately carrying a franchise.  And to the point where even having Stroud emerging in the division...most Jaguars fans still feel pretty confident that they've got the guy to go toe-to-toe with him for a decade.

 

 

So yeah.  I don't expect you to necessarily agree about where exactly Lawrence stands at the moment.  But i'd hope you can at least try to understand why this kind of overblown hysteria over how bad Lawrence is, doesn't resonate whatsoever with the people who actually have to watch and deal with him as their QB.

[El Ramster]

The problem with potential it only works when you’re really young. Trevor has data going back 3 years. Potential works for a guy like Richardson who showed he can make every throw he’s just riddled with injuries. But that man did things not many QBs can do. 
 

I’m not hating on Trevor. Seems to me like you’re content with what he’s shown and he’s a perfect fit. But justifying so many things it’s almost like he has an excuse for everything. Reminds me a lot of the conversations we had as Ram fans about Bradford. 
 

At one point the data has to overcome the hopefulness. He’s been a good to solid qb with plenty of room to to improve. Top QBs make do with what they have, and honestly Trevor has a pretty good skill set of guys. 
 

Travis, Kirk and Engram are Damm good pieces. It’s not like he’s Kyler out there with a bunch of scrubs. This will be a big year. I expect the colts and the Texans to swap places. The jags have the better team on paper specially with their defensive talent… 

I like Jacksonville they’ve built the right way.