2024 First Round Draft Talents-Different Than Most Drafts?

[Karnage84]

51 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

The weird thing is that some of his locks left out some of the top players at those positions.

At OT Joe Alt has been one of the top 2 all year in most rankings.  Talise Fuaga is top 11 on PFF's overall ranking.  I expect both of those guys to go in the top 4/5 OTs. 

I don't think any guards are locks to go round 1.  Zinter I have seen anywhere from 30th to not in the top 200.  Bebee I have seen top 30 but also barely top 150.  I think it is more likely zero go in the first but I do think we may see an OT drafted in round 1 that plays guard in the NFL.  I also think it is more likely that Sedrick Van Pran at C goes round 1 than any of the guards due to scarcity at the top of the C rankings. 

At edge he mentions Chop Robinson and Bralen Trice as maybes but they are top 3 at the position on most boards.  He mentioned Jack Stewart but JT Tuimoloua is the highest rated OSU edge from every source I have looked at and likely to go round 1.  I think Jonah Ellis from Utah moves into round 1 with a good combine.  He is smaller at 245 but 12 sacks and a 87 PFF grade will have eyes on him in the first for sure. 

I think Leonard Taylor is likely to go round 1 at DT.  Kris Jenkins could also sneak in there.  There always will be DTs going high and as long as some of these guys with great combines can shoot up boards.  I think the Texas DT duo will rise up boards.  They have played great this year and will spark some interest.  There also are a couple guys listed as edge defenders since they play an end in a 3-4 that could shoot up boards like Darius Robinson and Shemar Turner. 

CB has Nate Wiggins in the top 20 on many boards and I think there are a few guys that will shoot up there.  Quinyon Mitchell at Toledo has been insane with allowing 18 catches on 41 targets with no TDs allowed this year.  They have avoided him a lot this year because last year he had 5 INTs and allowed a 35 passer rating when targeting him.  TJ Tampa from Iowa St is another I think will rise up. He has given up a 47 passer rating when being target this year.  He doesn't have the track record of Mitchell but was solid last year.  Denzel Burke has missed some time but he could work his way up into that first round talk again. 

At S Tyler Nubin and Calen Bullock could move into the first round.  I think both will be first rounders with decent combines. 

I agree no RBs will go round 1.  The position had a rebirth in last years draft but there are not any prospects at the level of Bijan or Gibbs.  The combine might sneak someone like Bucky Irving (in the mold of Gibbs), Jonathan Brooks (that Texas backfield last year was crazy with Bijan, Roschon, and Brooks), or TreVeyon Henderson who was projected by some in the first round before the injury and he picked back up where he left off since returning but has been injured the last two years and may scare some teams away.  In general it feels more like the couple of drafts before last year with guys like Swift/Brece Hall etc who are good prospects but not great and therefore will not be drafted round 1.    

 

Agreed on a lot of these comments. 

OT: Olu, Alt, Fuaga, Barton, Latham, Mims (6). We could also see Morgan or Paul slide in here

IOL: Van Pran is the highest rated IOL according to PFF and I'd guess he has a very good chance to go Rd 1

Edge: Latu, Verse, Turner, Trice, Tuimoloau, Robinson are all in the Rd 1 mix. I haven't heard a lot of positive things about Sawyer, especially as a high end prospect. (6)

WR: Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, Coleman, Egbuka, A Mitchell, Worthy, Legette are all guys that have been in the Rd 1 conversation (8)

TE: Bowers is probably only guy to go Rd 1 (1)

CB: McKinstry, Wiggins, DeJean, King, Newton, Lassiter, Burke (7)

QB: Williams, Maye, McCarthy, Nix, Daniels, Penix (6)

DT: Newton, Taylor, Jenkins (3)

RB: Unlikely to see anyone go rd 1 so far

S: Maybe one guy but we could see nobody here

LB: I don't know if I believe a LB will be taken in Rd 1 this year

 

Out of all the guys I have listed, that's 38/32 prospects.. so 6 guys are going to slip to rd 2 out of this grouping. 

 

[Karnage84]

12 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

I am not sure if the Bears have a long-term answer at QB on their roster or not.

My expectation is that the Bears will fire Eberflus and Poles will trade Fields away. Poles inherited Fields and he's going to have a high pick no matter what given the struggles of the Bears and the Panthers. He can hand pick his HC and QBOTF. This will give him some extra time and maybe help take him out of the GM hot seat. 

I don't think the ownership group would allow Poles to trade a future asset in order to acquire Montez Sweat (and then sign him to a new 4 year deal) if Poles didn't have their confidence to be there for next year and beyond. If they can get a 2nd or 3rd round + for Fields and then add either Williams or Maye via the draft, there is going to be reason for optimism in Chicago. 

[Sllim Pickens]

11 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Agreed on a lot of these comments. 

OT: Olu, Alt, Fuaga, Barton, Latham, Mims (6). We could also see Morgan or Paul slide in here

IOL: Van Pran is the highest rated IOL according to PFF and I'd guess he has a very good chance to go Rd 1

Edge: Latu, Verse, Turner, Trice, Tuimoloau, Robinson are all in the Rd 1 mix. I haven't heard a lot of positive things about Sawyer, especially as a high end prospect. (6)

WR: Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, Coleman, Egbuka, A Mitchell, Worthy, Legette are all guys that have been in the Rd 1 conversation (8)

TE: Bowers is probably only guy to go Rd 1 (1)

CB: McKinstry, Wiggins, DeJean, King, Newton, Lassiter, Burke (7)

QB: Williams, Maye, McCarthy, Nix, Daniels, Penix (6)

DT: Newton, Taylor, Jenkins (3)

RB: Unlikely to see anyone go rd 1 so far

S: Maybe one guy but we could see nobody here

LB: I don't know if I believe a LB will be taken in Rd 1 this year

 

Out of all the guys I have listed, that's 38/32 prospects.. so 6 guys are going to slip to rd 2 out of this grouping. 

 

Agreed on a lot of these.  And I as I said I think a couple CBs work their way into the mix in Mitchell and Tampa as well.  

 

For the Lions, I am hoping/projecting we win the division and win a playoff game, putting us in the pick 25-32 range.  Looking at guys who project to be available around then right now, knowing that will change, I really like Leonard Taylor, Bralen Trice, Cooper DeJean, Josh Newton and Sedrick Van Pran.  On PFN they often have Latu available as their number 37 prospect but I think he goes top 10 and maybe top 5.  I feel like their rankings are all out of whack as I end up often drafting 4 guys I think will be 1st round talents through round 3 and a couple more second round talents the rest of the draft. Its tough right now with so many being so far apart on some guys.  

Guys who are further down that I wouldn't mind the Lions looking at or taking in that area are Quinyon Mitchell, TJ Tampa, Jonah Ellis, Patrick Paul, Princely Umanmielen, and Byron Murphy.  I think these guys will move up boards and based on how the draft shakes out ahead of us, they could end up being BPA at their positions when we are on the clock.  Especially given our history of liking guys a little more than the ranking services, these guys could be a big possibility. 

There are a couple of guys that could drop as well I would have some interest in but I feel like usually the guys who fall have a lower success rate than the guys who rise into the late 1st.  However if guys like Newton, Kool-Aid, Verse, or Keon Coleman drop to us, I'd be all for drafting them.  I don't really want a WR in the first given the level of talent at positions of need but I think he is a special WR in the role we need.  

[Just Want A Title]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

The weird thing is that some of his locks left out some of the top players at those positions.

At OT Joe Alt has been one of the top 2 all year in most rankings.  Talise Fuaga is top 11 on PFF's overall ranking.  I expect both of those guys to go in the top 4/5 OTs. 

I don't think any guards are locks to go round 1.  Zinter I have seen anywhere from 30th to not in the top 200.  Bebee I have seen top 30 but also barely top 150.  I think it is more likely zero go in the first but I do think we may see an OT drafted in round 1 that plays guard in the NFL.  I also think it is more likely that Sedrick Van Pran at C goes round 1 than any of the guards due to scarcity at the top of the C rankings. 

At edge he mentions Chop Robinson and Bralen Trice as maybes but they are top 3 at the position on most boards.  He mentioned Jack Stewart but JT Tuimoloua is the highest rated OSU edge from every source I have looked at and likely to go round 1.  I think Jonah Ellis from Utah moves into round 1 with a good combine.  He is smaller at 245 but 12 sacks and a 87 PFF grade will have eyes on him in the first for sure. 

I think Leonard Taylor is likely to go round 1 at DT.  Kris Jenkins could also sneak in there.  There always will be DTs going high and as long as some of these guys with great combines can shoot up boards.  I think the Texas DT duo will rise up boards.  They have played great this year and will spark some interest.  There also are a couple guys listed as edge defenders since they play an end in a 3-4 that could shoot up boards like Darius Robinson and Shemar Turner. 

CB has Nate Wiggins in the top 20 on many boards and I think there are a few guys that will shoot up there.  Quinyon Mitchell at Toledo has been insane with allowing 18 catches on 41 targets with no TDs allowed this year.  They have avoided him a lot this year because last year he had 5 INTs and allowed a 35 passer rating when targeting him.  TJ Tampa from Iowa St is another I think will rise up. He has given up a 47 passer rating when being target this year.  He doesn't have the track record of Mitchell but was solid last year.  Denzel Burke has missed some time but he could work his way up into that first round talk again. 

At S Tyler Nubin and Calen Bullock could move into the first round.  I think both will be first rounders with decent combines. 

I agree no RBs will go round 1.  The position had a rebirth in last years draft but there are not any prospects at the level of Bijan or Gibbs.  The combine might sneak someone like Bucky Irving (in the mold of Gibbs), Jonathan Brooks (that Texas backfield last year was crazy with Bijan, Roschon, and Brooks), or TreVeyon Henderson who was projected by some in the first round before the injury and he picked back up where he left off since returning but has been injured the last two years and may scare some teams away.  In general it feels more like the couple of drafts before last year with guys like Swift/Brece Hall etc who are good prospects but not great and therefore will not be drafted round 1.    

 

Leaving some players out was intentional.  I tried to avoid elevating fringe players and wanted to be conservative in who is seen as legit 1st Round talent.

[Sllim Pickens]

1 minute ago, Just Want A Title said:

Leaving some players out was intentional.  I tried to avoid elevating fringe players and wanted to be conservative in who is seen as legit 1st Round talent.

I get that.  But Alt has been a consensus top 10 pick and top 3 on many sites.  And having another OT in Fuaga not listed who is a consensus top 20 prospect felt odd when naming some of the others you did.  

You start with QBs and leave out JJ McCarthy who has been a top 4 QB on most sites but mention Ewers who is not likely to come out and is not in the 1st round on any site I have seen mentioned. 

Similarly with Leonard Taylor who is a top 30 prospect on most sites. And then you mention guys like Sawyer who is not in the top 200 on PFN and is 79 on PFF.  

I think a lot of these guys are elite talents, especially the OTs and should have been included.  

[Karnage84]

5 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Agreed on a lot of these.  And I as I said I think a couple CBs work their way into the mix in Mitchell and Tampa as well.  

 

For the Lions, I am hoping/projecting we win the division and win a playoff game, putting us in the pick 25-32 range.  Looking at guys who project to be available around then right now, knowing that will change, I really like Leonard Taylor, Bralen Trice, Cooper DeJean, Josh Newton and Sedrick Van Pran.  On PFN they often have Latu available as their number 37 prospect but I think he goes top 10 and maybe top 5.  I feel like their rankings are all out of whack as I end up often drafting 4 guys I think will be 1st round talents through round 3 and a couple more second round talents the rest of the draft. Its tough right now with so many being so far apart on some guys.  

Guys who are further down that I wouldn't mind the Lions looking at or taking in that area are Quinyon Mitchell, TJ Tampa, Jonah Ellis, Patrick Paul, Princely Umanmielen, and Byron Murphy.  I think these guys will move up boards and based on how the draft shakes out ahead of us, they could end up being BPA at their positions when we are on the clock.  Especially given our history of liking guys a little more than the ranking services, these guys could be a big possibility. 

There are a couple of guys that could drop as well I would have some interest in but I feel like usually the guys who fall have a lower success rate than the guys who rise into the late 1st.  However if guys like Newton, Kool-Aid, Verse, or Keon Coleman drop to us, I'd be all for drafting them.  I don't really want a WR in the first given the level of talent at positions of need but I think he is a special WR in the role we need.  

Part of what I've tried to do... somewhat successfully.. mostly unsuccessfully... is split out guys based on what I think the Lions would be looking for and how they might try to attack things. I had been able to identify Antoine Green as a Lions target. Branch absolutely felt like a natural fit but he had been talked about a lot as a 1st rounder already. Jack Campbell is another one that I was very strong on. 

CB: I can see us trying to add to the position but I'm not sure the Lions feel they need to move on from Jerry Jacobs. I think they like him a lot more than we do (I don't hate him at all but I would like to see us have a legit guy opposite of Sutton). This feels like a place where we'd take two guys (maybe rd 3 and rd 5), especially since we're probably going to be replacing Will Harris

OC: I wouldn't rule out Van Pran being our 1st overall pick. Ragnow has been battling injuries for the past couple years. He could easily hang it up. At best, SVP slots in at OG with Ragnow still on the roster. More likely, Ragnow retires in the off-season and SVP is our OC starting day 1. This team definitely wants to be strong in the trenches and having that offensive line in place is important for everything they want to do on offense. 

Edge: This is probably going to be addressed rd 2/rd 3, which will feel later than we would like it to be as fans

WR: I'd love us to add Coleman... I just don't see him being there when it's our turn. The addition of DPJ has me thinking that the Lions will pivot in the type of WR I've been targeting for them (6'0+. 200 lbs+, X-type) and actually add a speedster as either a backup to Jamo or as his replacement. Roman Wilson is currently being pegged as a 3rd round pick. Adding someone like that later in the draft along with ARSB, DPJ, Reynolds, Raymond and Green (plus Jamo) would help in upgrading the overall WR corp. 

LWR - Reynolds, Peoples-Jones, Green

SWR - St. Brown, Raymond

RWR - Williams, Wilson (R)

[Sllim Pickens]

16 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Part of what I've tried to do... somewhat successfully.. mostly unsuccessfully... is split out guys based on what I think the Lions would be looking for and how they might try to attack things. I had been able to identify Antoine Green as a Lions target. Branch absolutely felt like a natural fit but he had been talked about a lot as a 1st rounder already. Jack Campbell is another one that I was very strong on. 

CB: I can see us trying to add to the position but I'm not sure the Lions feel they need to move on from Jerry Jacobs. I think they like him a lot more than we do (I don't hate him at all but I would like to see us have a legit guy opposite of Sutton). This feels like a place where we'd take two guys (maybe rd 3 and rd 5), especially since we're probably going to be replacing Will Harris

OC: I wouldn't rule out Van Pran being our 1st overall pick. Ragnow has been battling injuries for the past couple years. He could easily hang it up. At best, SVP slots in at OG with Ragnow still on the roster. More likely, Ragnow retires in the off-season and SVP is our OC starting day 1. This team definitely wants to be strong in the trenches and having that offensive line in place is important for everything they want to do on offense. 

Edge: This is probably going to be addressed rd 2/rd 3, which will feel later than we would like it to be as fans

WR: I'd love us to add Coleman... I just don't see him being there when it's our turn. The addition of DPJ has me thinking that the Lions will pivot in the type of WR I've been targeting for them (6'0+. 200 lbs+, X-type) and actually add a speedster as either a backup to Jamo or as his replacement. Roman Wilson is currently being pegged as a 3rd round pick. Adding someone like that later in the draft along with ARSB, DPJ, Reynolds, Raymond and Green (plus Jamo) would help in upgrading the overall WR corp. 

LWR - Reynolds, Peoples-Jones, Green

SWR - St. Brown, Raymond

RWR - Williams, Wilson (R)

I am intrigued to look at some of the additional numbers and rankings from PFF later this year when the college season is done.  I remember finding Campbell and Branch last year along with Witherspoon being an early target who I think would have been the pick at 6 if he was there. Similarly I think we would have taken Bijan at 12 if he fell there and is why there is no video of them discussing Gibbs prior to being on the clock.   But I know a lot of what I am doing now is scouting report scouting, PFF overall scouting, and doing some tape but not as much as I will later in the offseason so getting the PFF details along with the combine numbers often changes a lot for me.  Thats where I am expecting some of that rising of guys I mentioned earlier.  Like Quinyon Mitchell's numbers this and last season are very similar to Witherspoon's resume and I think will lead to him rising especially if he can do it in a bowl game against better competition and at the combine.  Getting the breakout of man/zone grades, run support grade, missed tackle rate etc will be telling with him as well. 

[Karnage84]

1 minute ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I am intrigued to look at some of the additional numbers and rankings from PFF later this year when the college season is done.  I remember finding Campbell and Branch last year along with Witherspoon being an early target who I think would have been the pick at 6 if he was there. Similarly I think we would have taken Bijan at 12 if he fell there and is why there is no video of them discussing Gibbs prior to being on the clock.   But I know a lot of what I am doing now is scouting report scouting, PFF overall scouting, and doing some tape but not as much as I will later in the offseason so getting the PFF details along with the combine numbers often changes a lot for me.  Thats where I am expecting some of that rising of guys I mentioned earlier.  Like Quinyon Mitchell's numbers this and last season are very similar to Witherspoon's resume and I think will lead to him rising especially if he can do it in a bowl game against better competition and at the combine.  Getting the breakout of man/zone grades, run support grade, missed tackle rate etc will be telling with him as well. 

This is a "what a 2024 Lions draft could look like" based on an overall feeling of how we might address the off-season.

Rd 1 - Sedric Van Pran, OC, Georgia: Ragnow has been battling injuries for years. SVP is our OC of the future and that future could be in 2024. He could also play some OG for us if Ragnow does come back this season. Having Ragnow, Glasgow and SVP provides stability right in the middle in the event of injuries

Rd 2 - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo: As you've said, he's probably not available here but it's a deep CB class and he's playing at a smaller program. 

Rd 3 - Michael Hall Jr, DT/DE, Ohio State: Smaller DT prospect, slots in to play the closed edge. Can also play inside

Rd 3 - Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan: Speedy WR that either will replace Raymond and/or is Jamo insurance

Rd 4 - Jaylen Harrell, Edge, Michigan: Wasn't intending on going heavy on the Wolverines and/or Big Ten but this is based on PFF rankings. I expect that we'll add an Edge guy later on to replace Julian Okwara and/or Charles Harris

Rd 5 - Malachi Moore, S, Alabama: I suspect that we'll add another DB later in the draft. Moore should take over for Will Harris and what he offers

[Sllim Pickens]

3 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

This is a "what a 2024 Lions draft could look like" based on an overall feeling of how we might address the off-season.

Rd 1 - Sedric Van Pran, OC, Georgia: Ragnow has been battling injuries for years. SVP is our OC of the future and that future could be in 2024. He could also play some OG for us if Ragnow does come back this season. Having Ragnow, Glasgow and SVP provides stability right in the middle in the event of injuries

Rd 2 - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo: As you've said, he's probably not available here but it's a deep CB class and he's playing at a smaller program. 

Rd 3 - Michael Hall Jr, DT/DE, Ohio State: Smaller DT prospect, slots in to play the closed edge. Can also play inside

Rd 3 - Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan: Speedy WR that either will replace Raymond and/or is Jamo insurance

Rd 4 - Jaylen Harrell, Edge, Michigan: Wasn't intending on going heavy on the Wolverines and/or Big Ten but this is based on PFF rankings. I expect that we'll add an Edge guy later on to replace Julian Okwara and/or Charles Harris

Rd 5 - Malachi Moore, S, Alabama: I suspect that we'll add another DB later in the draft. Moore should take over for Will Harris and what he offers

Howard Cross is the smaller DT I have been looking at later in drafts.  Similar size to Hall and in that Cominsky mold.  Cross has been historically a better pass rusher than Hall and continued that this year.  Brandon Dorlus is another one I have looked at but likely need to use a 2nd on him but he had 40 hurries and 2 sacks last year and already has 21 hurries, 4 sacks and 5 batted passes this year.  He is 6'3" 290 so smaller than most DTs but big enough and good enough at getting to the QB or at least making them uncomfortable on pass downs.  Then a couple edge guys who are 280-290 like Shemar Turner and Darius Robinson are guys I also like in that role.  Will be interesting to see what the run D grades are on those guys as all have a pretty solid pass rush ability for interior defenders.  

Harrell I think will be a solid player but he is small for an edge defender and seems to excel as a run defender vs pass rusher so may be a LB in the NFL.  He is very similar in size to Houston and it seems we prefer that size at LB like Barnes and what they are trying to do with Houston this year.  The smaller edge guys like Julian Okwara and Charles Harris have seen a decline in snaps this year. I feel like that other edge we will be finding someone closer to Hutch in size given we typically have Cominsky/Paschal on the edge on the first two downs.  Gabriel Murphy from UCLA, Jasheen Davis from Wake and Mohamed Kamara from Colorado St. are guys in that area that would fit the size and skill set.  

Overall I wouldn't be mad at that draft and I feel like a lot of the same comments from this draft would be the general consensus like we reached for some guys early and maybe not attacking our biggest needs early but would be successful just like this draft.  

[Karnage84]

22 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Will be interesting to see what the run D grades are on those guys as all have a pretty solid pass rush ability for interior defenders.  

Let's put a pin in this and visit it at the end of the season. I'll be able to get all of those grades. 

27 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I feel like that other edge we will be finding someone closer to Hutch in size given we typically have Cominsky/Paschal on the edge on the first two downs.

I'm expecting this will be a lower end UFA signing like Yetur Gross-Matos (maybe AJ Epenesa but he's graded out pretty well for Buffalo so he might be more costly). 

[Karnage84]

29 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Overall I wouldn't be mad at that draft and I feel like a lot of the same comments from this draft would be the general consensus like we reached for some guys early and maybe not attacking our biggest needs early but would be successful just like this draft.  

It's not a draft that I would look at and be like "wow - how did we get all of these incredible players!?". However, the Packers draft is one that I looked at and was sort of jealous about...look how that's working out right now. 

Holmes and co. have overall done a really spectacular job so we'd just have to be patient and put our faith in the process until proven otherwise. I absolutely say this in a hypocritical fashion since I was of the belief we should've made more of a move at the deadline. 

[Just Want A Title]

1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

It's not a draft that I would look at and be like "wow - how did we get all of these incredible players!?". However, the Packers draft is one that I looked at and was sort of jealous about...look how that's working out right now. 

Holmes and co. have overall done a really spectacular job so we'd just have to be patient and put our faith in the process until proven otherwise. I absolutely say this in a hypocritical fashion since I was of the belief we should've made more of a move at the deadline. 

I think it is a deep draft that aligns surprisingly well with our needs.  It isn't often where you find yourself likely drafting late in the first and second rounds while still being having a really good chance at getting an impact player.  

Edited November 6, 2023 by Just Want A Title

[Sllim Pickens]

5 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

I think it is a deep draft that aligns surprisingly well with our needs.  It isn't often where you find yourself likely drafting late in the first and second rounds while still being having a really good change at getting an impact player.  

Agreed.  I actually wouldn't be mad if we drop down into the 2nd and add some more mid round draft capital since I think there will be solid 1st round graded talent through the mid second.  I am liking this draft and I like Holmes having more chances to pick given his success rate.  

[Karnage84]

9 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Agreed.  I actually wouldn't be mad if we drop down into the 2nd and add some more mid round draft capital since I think there will be solid 1st round graded talent through the mid second.  I am liking this draft and I like Holmes having more chances to pick given his success rate.  

My only issue with this would be that you lose that extra year of control for a player.

However, I believe that we would be primed to be in a position to trade down for a team that wants to come up and draft a QBOTF in order to secure that 5th year. 

A team like the Jets, Saints, Raiders or Rams could decide to move up and take one of the late 1st guys like a Jayden Daniels or Michael Penix. The Locked on NFL Draft guys were giving Daniels a Lamar Lite (not quite MVP player Lamar level) comparisons. Given his current level of play and a prior MVP season, that would certainly be an intriguing kind of player for one of these teams.

 

[detfan782004]

5 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I think this is not going to happen at all.  The NIL most of these guys are getting is scraps compared to NFL pay.  Especially given they will want to get to the second contract in the NFL earlier.  I have said it elsewhere, but if Caleb Williams waits because of what he is making in NIL, he will need to make about 60 million next year to make it worth it by the end of his career.  Getting to his big payday a year earlier will be much more beneficial and given QB contracts in 5 years likely will be around $60M per year, he will be missing out on a year of that by going back to school.  

If you can keep yourself from going to a crap team and earn a cool mil it would be no brainer.

Some of these kids are getting more than you think.  Blake Corum is good example.