2024 First Round Draft Talents-Different Than Most Drafts?

[Sllim Pickens]

19 hours ago, detfan782004 said:

If you can keep yourself from going to a crap team and earn a cool mil it would be no brainer.

Some of these kids are getting more than you think.  Blake Corum is good example.  

A cool mil is nothing compared to what you are getting in the NFL, especially as an early 1st round pick. Bryce Young got a 4 year 37.995M deal which averages out to 9.5M a year.  24M of that is signing bonus which means he got it this year and he can earn money on that money.  In year 5, he either gets an extension or the 5th year option which will likely be in the 25+M range.  Justin Herbert just signed an extension so in year 6 he starts a deal that will pay him the average of 55M a year. So if Caleb Williams goes back to make a cool Mil, he will be delaying that 5th year by a year and will be making approx 10-15Mil less that year and then in year 6, will likely be making 25-35M less that year.  So if he plays until he is 36 either way, he is down about 40M in career earnings so he could go back to school and make a cool mil.  Its stupid and no financial advisor or person who cares about these kids will suggest it or push it.  He is simply trying to force his way to a team he wants, and likely will but there is zero chance he goes back to school for NIL money. 

If you look at the end of the first round, the 32nd pick signed a 4 year 12M deal which averages to 3M per season with a 5.5M signing bonus that he gets now and can start earning money with.  His 5th year option if picked up would likely be in the 16-22M range depending on accolades received over that time.  So the 2024 last pick in the first round will be making probably 20-25M in the 2028 season where as the person who went back and is drafted in a similar spot will be making 4-5M that year.  Then the next year it will be even a wider gap.  

So anywhere you are drafted, even in the 7th round, getting to that second contract quicker is significantly more financially beneficial.  Guys who are drafted in the 7th round aren't making a mil in NIL money. Heck guys drafted in the late first are likely not close to that.  The only way you would at all consider going back to school is if you don't believe in yourself to get a second contract and I don't want that mentality on my team anyways. 

[Sllim Pickens]

20 hours ago, detfan782004 said:

If you can keep yourself from going to a crap team and earn a cool mil it would be no brainer.

Some of these kids are getting more than you think.  Blake Corum is good example.  

Blake Corum for example is projected to make approx 1.1M in NIL deals this year, which is great.  As a third round pick this year, Broderic Martin signed a 4 year, 5.3M contract.  That averages out to 1.325M, more than the 1.1M Corum is likely to make but also he is getting approx 1.6M this year with the signing bonus.

Looking at the RB contracts this offseason, obviously RBs are screwed on the second contracts but Miles Sanders still signed a 4 year 45M deal at 6.25M per year and Monty got 6M per year.  There were 14 RBs that signed this offseason for more than 2M per year and another 12 that signed for more than the 1.1 that Corum is making in NIL.  Given RBs have short shelf lives in the NFL anyways, getting that extra year in the NFL is easily more valuable.  

Say Corum came out this past year at age 22 and was a 3rd round pick about where Martin was and signs a similar deal.  This year he would be ahead approx 225k in base salary but would be getting about 1.55M in cash this year so he would be ahead 400k.  Over the next four years, he will make the 5.3M but its an escalating pay scale.  Given he went back, over that same time if he is drafted in a similar spot, he will make 4.2M over that same time period.  Then in that fifth year when he will be 26/27 year old season, if Corum earns that second contract even as a back up which is likely (Dwayne Washington is one of those who signed for more than 1.1M this year) he comes out ahead. Say he is the equivalent of say Justice Hill and signs a 2 year 4.51M deal, he is now making 2.25M that year.  Since he went back, he would be in year four of that rookie deal making 1.5M.  If he then signs 2M deals the next three years until he is 30 and retires, he will make another 6M.  Given he went back to school, he will only be able to do that for 2 years.  So career earnings through his age 30 year would have been 15.81M if he came out last year and had a Devin Singletary type career plus he would have more money up front. Since he went back, he will have made approx 14.8M over that time.  Now if he turns out to be David Montgomery/Miles Sanders/or even Jamaal Williams and is making 4-8M during that second contract, he is out likely 3-7M over his career by going back.  If he turns out to be Jonathan Taylor or Josh Jacobs, he is throwing away 10-12M by going back.  This doesn't include the fact that in the NFL he has the ability to make endorsement money still which if you have that connection already from NIL, will probably be able to maintain relationships since some of those deals are from Topps card company and Subway.  If he makes 200k a year in endorsements he shoots further ahead.  

[detfan782004]

3 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

A cool mil is nothing compared to what you are getting in the NFL, especially as an early 1st round pick. Bryce Young got a 4 year 37.995M deal which averages out to 9.5M a year.  24M of that is signing bonus which means he got it this year and he can earn money on that money.  In year 5, he either gets an extension or the 5th year option which will likely be in the 25+M range.  Justin Herbert just signed an extension so in year 6 he starts a deal that will pay him the average of 55M a year. So if Caleb Williams goes back to make a cool Mil, he will be delaying that 5th year by a year and will be making approx 10-15Mil less that year and then in year 6, will likely be making 25-35M less that year.  So if he plays until he is 36 either way, he is down about 40M in career earnings so he could go back to school and make a cool mil.  Its stupid and no financial advisor or person who cares about these kids will suggest it or push it.  He is simply trying to force his way to a team he wants, and likely will but there is zero chance he goes back to school for NIL money. 

If you look at the end of the first round, the 32nd pick signed a 4 year 12M deal which averages to 3M per season with a 5.5M signing bonus that he gets now and can start earning money with.  His 5th year option if picked up would likely be in the 16-22M range depending on accolades received over that time.  So the 2024 last pick in the first round will be making probably 20-25M in the 2028 season where as the person who went back and is drafted in a similar spot will be making 4-5M that year.  Then the next year it will be even a wider gap.  

So anywhere you are drafted, even in the 7th round, getting to that second contract quicker is significantly more financially beneficial.  Guys who are drafted in the 7th round aren't making a mil in NIL money. Heck guys drafted in the late first are likely not close to that.  The only way you would at all consider going back to school is if you don't believe in yourself to get a second contract and I don't want that mentality on my team anyways. 

It's more about keeping yourself from going to a bad organization while still getting some cash. 

[Sllim Pickens]

1 minute ago, detfan782004 said:

It's more about keeping yourself from going to a bad organization while still getting some cash. 

Is that worth millions of dollars you are giving up?  Montez Sweat didn't think so with that 25M a year he just got in Chicago.  Like I said, if Caleb Williams comes back instead of going pro, he is missing out on 40-50M over his career.  Joe Burrow went to a bad organization, so did CJ Stroud.  So did Kyler and Josh Allen, and Jared Goff and they all signed big second deals and are making a ton of money.  Mac Jones went to a great organization (at the time anyways) and is not going to get his 5th year option picked up. Its about your talent.  Even if he ends up like Baker Mayfield or Mitch Trubisky, he is better off coming out now and getting paid so you can sign that next 10M contract.  Bad teams are at the top of the draft and if you want to get paid like that, you end up on a bad team.  The difference between 1st and 6th is 10M over four years.  The difference between 1st and 15th is 22M over four years.  The difference between 1st and 32nd is 26M over the first four years.  So if money is what he wants, going early matters.  If he would rather be on a good team, keep sucking and he will drop to the end of the first or early second like Will Levis and make significantly less the next 4 years.  If he wants to go back to school and come out next year and still go top 5, he will 100% be on a bad team. 

[detfan782004]

Just now, Sllim Pickens said:

Is that worth millions of dollars you are giving up?  Montez Sweat didn't think so with that 25M a year he just got in Chicago.  Like I said, if Caleb Williams comes back instead of going pro, he is missing out on 40-50M over his career.  Joe Burrow went to a bad organization, so did CJ Stroud.  So did Kyler and Josh Allen, and Jared Goff and they all signed big second deals and are making a ton of money.  Mac Jones went to a great organization (at the time anyways) and is not going to get his 5th year option picked up. Its about your talent.  Even if he ends up like Baker Mayfield or Mitch Trubisky, he is better off coming out now and getting paid so you can sign that next 10M contract.  Bad teams are at the top of the draft and if you want to get paid like that, you end up on a bad team.  The difference between 1st and 6th is 10M over four years.  The difference between 1st and 15th is 22M over four years.  The difference between 1st and 32nd is 26M over the first four years.  So if money is what he wants, going early matters.  If he would rather be on a good team, keep sucking and he will drop to the end of the first or early second like Will Levis and make significantly less the next 4 years.  If he wants to go back to school and come out next year and still go top 5, he will 100% be on a bad team. 

Are you really giving them up? One could argue when you go to a bad organization you are costing yourself more money on next deal. Good players look like crap on bad rosters and it costs them on next deal 

[Sllim Pickens]

16 minutes ago, detfan782004 said:

Are you really giving them up? One could argue when you go to a bad organization you are costing yourself more money on next deal. Good players look like crap on bad rosters and it costs them on next deal 

Again, Cinci was a bad organization that figured it out with Burrow.  Same can be said with Detroit and Sewell/Goff.  Josh Allen helped turn around Buffalo.  Trevor Lawrence helped turn around Jacksonville, even with Urban Meyer for a year.  

Other players on bad teams and in bad organizations like Kyler in Arizona still got big deals.  Justin Herbert still got a big deal with the mess that is LAC's front office and coaching staff.  

Bad players and those who don't put in the work get paid less, not because they are in a bad organization. If you are good you might actually get more since that bad organization won't want to lose you. 

Ndamukong Suh got paid when he left us.  Calvin and Stafford both got paid with us.  Decker got paid with us. The bad players or ones that their talent said they don't deserve a big second deal.  If guys like Caleb Williams are so confident in their abilities, they should be just fine getting that second deal no matter where they are.  

Not to mention how quickly things can change in who is good or bad.  The Lions find the right coach and are no longer purgatory.  The Texans were a laughing stock the last few years, find a coach and are working toward being a good organization.  New England was the blue print until two years ago.  Same with New Orleans and Denver and they now are both what I would call bad situations and organizations.  

[LionArkie]

11 minutes ago, detfan782004 said:

Are you really giving them up? One could argue when you go to a bad organization you are costing yourself more money on next deal. Good players look like crap on bad rosters and it costs them on next deal 

I'm not sure that's the case. In fact I'd kind of lean the other way. Mike Furrey had 98 receptions on a crap team and he sucked; they were 3-13. Calvin Johnson had a good year in his second year on an 0-16 team. When you are the only bright spot, I kind of think it might inflate your numbers verses a deeper roster.

[Sllim Pickens]

8 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

I'm not sure that's the case. In fact I'd kind of lean the other way. Mike Furrey had 98 receptions on a crap team and he sucked; they were 3-13. Calvin Johnson had a good year in his second year on an 0-16 team. When you are the only bright spot, I kind of think it might inflate your numbers verses a deeper roster.

Kenny Golladay should thank the Lions for his second contract

[detfan782004]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Kenny Golladay should thank the Lions for his second contract

More about the QB than the team

[Sllim Pickens]

30 minutes ago, detfan782004 said:

More about the QB than the team

He came from a bad organization and got paid.  

But also, so you're saying a bad team can have a good QB and they can still get paid too though?  

[Just Want A Title]

One other QB who might directly or indirectly affect the first round:  Jordan Travis from Florida State.  He is having another very good year.  It will be interesting to see how he is evaluated as we get closer to Draft Day.

Edited November 7, 2023 by Just Want A Title

[Karnage84]

13 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

One other QB who might directly or indirectly affect the first round:  Travis Jordan from Florida State.  He is having another very good year.  It will be interesting to see how he is evaluated as we get closer to Draft Day.

I've been hearing him being referred to as a "very good college QB but not a real pro prospect". 

[Just Want A Title]

14 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I've been hearing him being referred to as a "very good college QB but not a real pro prospect". 

I saw him in his first game of the year against LSU and once he got it going he played really well.  It will be interesting to see where his evaluation falls.

[detfan782004]

3 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

He came from a bad organization and got paid.  

But also, so you're saying a bad team can have a good QB and they can still get paid too though?  

QB is the one exception to rule honestly given the importance of said position 

[Karnage84]

1 hour ago, Just Want A Title said:

I saw him in his first game of the year against LSU and once he got it going he played really well.  It will be interesting to see where his evaluation falls.

He's 6'1, 212. Apparently some accuracy and timing issues. Currently a 3rd rd grade