2024 First Round Draft Talents-Different Than Most Drafts?

[Just Want A Title]

With the Lions having such a good year I have deliberately been avoiding draft talk so I can enjoy the ride.  However, with the bye week I figured I would start looking at how the early part of the draft could shake out.  The 2024 draft seems like it could have a lot more really good prospects at premium positions who are highly probable to go in the first round.  My conservative break-down of probably first round selection by position:

QB: 4 minimum--Caleb Williams and Drake May at the top of the class.  However, there are a bunch of other players below them such as Michael Penix Jr, Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels and Quinn Ewers that could end up in first round.  There could be at least two more QBs selected in Round 1 depending on who declares.  One prospect that nobody is really talking about:  Michael Pratt from Tulane.  He has quietly become a pretty good prospect.

RB:  0--There are no elite RBs in this class.  There might be a late-rising prospect that could get into the end of Rd 1 but it doesn't seem likely

OT:  5 minimum--Much like QB, there are a lot of good OT prospects this year.  Olu Fashanu, JC Latham and Amarius Mims are locks for Round 1.  Then you have other prospects like Jordan Morgan, Patrick Paul, Graham Barton and Kingsley Saumaala that could add a couple of more.  

OG:  2 minimum--They may not go in the upper half of the first round but there are a couple OGs that teams will think are instant starters.  Zak Zinter and Javion Cohen are likely candidates but Copper Beebe is a super clean OG prospect.  There is a lot of quality depth beyond the first round this year though and that could be amplified if premium position players are prioritized.

C-  0--There are some solid C prospects this year nobody that will likely be taken in Rd 1

TE:  1--Brock Bowers seems like the only first-rounder this year.  

WR:  5 minimum--Marvin Harrison II, Malik Nabers, Keon Coleman, Rome Odunze and Emeka Egubka are solidly in Rd 1 at this point.  Players like Troy Frankin could be added to this group also.  This is a really strong group of WRs

DE/Edge:  4 minimum--Dallas Turner, Jared Verse, and Laita Latu will be first round locks.  A second group of players with Jack Sawyer, Bralen Trice and Chop Robinson will likely produce at least one more first-round selection and maybe more

DT:  1--Jerzhan Newton is a lock for Rd 1.  Nobody else has really been dominant but another prospect might sneak into Rd 1 based on measurables 

LB:  1--Jeremiah Trotter might get into Rd 1 but I don't see anyone other LBs making much of a case for Rd 1.

CB:  3--Kool-Aid Mckinstry, Caleb King and Cooper DeJean (more of a safety) all seem to be solidly in Rd 1.  However, there are always risers at CB and this number could go up a lot.  

S: 1--Kamren Kichens seems to have a consensus Rd 1 grade.  There will probably be one or two other prospects that could rise as the draft evaluation process unfolds

 

I can't remember a draft that has had such high numbers of really good prospects at QB, WR, and OT that could legitimately be taken in Rd 1.   OT, OG, and CB will have some good players headed into Rd 2. also.  In all likelihood, the Lions will be drafting between 26 and 32 this year.  Their probable draft position and the composition of the draft actually line up pretty well with their needs at OT, OG and CB.  Even if they stay at their position in late in the first round, they should have a chance to get a much prospect than we usually see at that point in the draft.  How do you think the talent at the top of the draft will drive the strategy of Brad Holmes and Company?

[detfan782004]

A lot of them won't come out. With NIL I would expect 1/3 of the top guys to stay in school 

[Just Want A Title]

3 hours ago, detfan782004 said:

A lot of them won't come out. With NIL I would expect 1/3 of the top guys to stay in school 

Nix, Daniels and Penix Jr are Seniors.  After watching the USC's latest loss, I don't see Caleb Williams staying there another year.  Drake Maye could stay another year but I don't see it.  He isn't getting as much NIL money at North Carolina as he would at other programs.

[Just Want A Title]

Jalen Milroe could shake things up if he declares for this draft.

[detfan782004]

45 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

Nix, Daniels and Penix Jr are Seniors.  After watching the USC's latest loss, I don't see Caleb Williams staying there another year.  Drake Maye could stay another year but I don't see it.  He isn't getting as much NIL money at North Carolina as he would at other programs.

Caleb will only come out if he can be guaranteed to be drafted by Cowboys, Raiders, Vikings, Giants or Niners.

If none of them have top pick he will go back for NIL money 

[Nnivolcm]

4 minutes ago, detfan782004 said:

Caleb will only come out if he can be guaranteed to be drafted by Cowboys, Raiders, Vikings, Giants or Niners.

If none of them have top pick he will go back for NIL money 

You must be terrible at poker. 

[Karnage84]

19 hours ago, Just Want A Title said:

QB: 4 minimum--Caleb Williams and Drake May at the top of the class.  However, there are a bunch of other players below them such as Michael Penix Jr, Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels and Quinn Ewers that could end up in first round.  There could be at least two more QBs selected in Round 1 depending on who declares.  One prospect that nobody is really talking about:  Michael Pratt from Tulane.  He has quietly become a pretty good prospect.

It feels like the pecking order will be

1. Caleb Williams
2. Drake Maye
3. JJ McCarthy
4. Bo Nix
5. Jayden Daniels
6. Michael Penix

Ewers, Pratt, Rattler are more likely to be moved down the draft board. Penix could even be a round 2 guy based on his injury history. Shedur Sanders is draft-eligible this year but I feel like he has a better shot at going back to Colorado and then coming out (with the intention of being one of the top QBs selected in the 2025 draft). This could change if the Falcons are in the top 6 and tell Sanders "You're our guy". 

There are 6 teams who I estimate are 'Likely' to take a QB in round 1: 

1. Chicago Bears > Justin Fields
2. New York Giants > Daniel Jones
3. New England Patriots > Mac Jones
4. Denver Broncos > Russell Wilson
5. Atlanta Falcons > Desmond Ridder
6. Las Vegas Raiders > Jimmy Garoppalo

There are at least 3 guys in that mix who could find a new home (Fields, Jones x2). 

'Possibly'

1. Arizona > Kyler Murray [If he's replaced, where does he go?]
2. LA Rams > Could try to get Stafford's successor. Not sure if McVay wants to stick around for a rebuild, which could change the equation
3. Green Bay > If they aren't sold on Love, then they could be looking to find his replacement
4. Tampa Bay > Baker has played fairly well for them and he might not be an obvious candidate in need of replacement. If Bowles gets fired then that would change things.
5. Washington > I personally like Howell and feel he could have the team built more around him. However, there's probably going to be a new coaching staff. 
6. NY Jets > The Jets are unlikely to invest another 1st round pick in a QB if they're planning on bringing Rodgers back for a run next year. 
7. Minnesota > The Vikings probably want to bring Kirk back. However, they could look to add a young QB into the mix to be their QBOTF
8. Seattle > The Seahawks should probably be looking for their QBOTF and heir to Geno Smith's spot. 
9. San Francisco > If Brock Purdy is now banged up and/or it's determined that he just isn't the guy of the future 

 

[Karnage84]

19 hours ago, Just Want A Title said:

With the Lions having such a good year I have deliberately been avoiding draft talk so I can enjoy the ride.  However, with the bye week I figured I would start looking at how the early part of the draft could shake out.  The 2024 draft seems like it could have a lot more really good prospects at premium positions who are highly probable to go in the first round.  My conservative break-down of probably first round selection by position:

QB: 4 minimum--Caleb Williams and Drake May at the top of the class.  However, there are a bunch of other players below them such as Michael Penix Jr, Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels and Quinn Ewers that could end up in first round.  There could be at least two more QBs selected in Round 1 depending on who declares.  One prospect that nobody is really talking about:  Michael Pratt from Tulane.  He has quietly become a pretty good prospect.

RB:  0--There are no elite RBs in this class.  There might be a late-rising prospect that could get into the end of Rd 1 but it doesn't seem likely

OT:  5 minimum--Much like QB, there are a lot of good OT prospects this year.  Olu Fashanu, JC Latham and Amarius Mims are locks for Round 1.  Then you have other prospects like Jordan Morgan, Patrick Paul, Graham Barton and Kingsley Saumaala that could add a couple of more.  

OG:  2 minimum--They may not go in the upper half of the first round but there are a couple OGs that teams will think are instant starters.  Zak Zinter and Javion Cohen are likely candidates but Copper Beebe is a super clean OG prospect.  There is a lot of quality depth beyond the first round this year though and that could be amplified if premium position players are prioritized.

C-  0--There are some solid C prospects this year nobody that will likely be taken in Rd 1

TE:  1--Brock Bowers seems like the only first-rounder this year.  

WR:  5 minimum--Marvin Harrison II, Malik Nabers, Keon Coleman, Rome Odunze and Emeka Egubka are solidly in Rd 1 at this point.  Players like Troy Frankin could be added to this group also.  This is a really strong group of WRs

DE/Edge:  4 minimum--Dallas Turner, Jared Verse, and Laita Latu will be first round locks.  A second group of players with Jack Sawyer, Bralen Trice and Chop Robinson will likely produce at least one more first-round selection and maybe more

DT:  1--Jerzhan Newton is a lock for Rd 1.  Nobody else has really been dominant but another prospect might sneak into Rd 1 based on measurables 

LB:  1--Jeremiah Trotter might get into Rd 1 but I don't see anyone other LBs making much of a case for Rd 1.

CB:  3--Kool-Aid Mckinstry, Caleb King and Cooper DeJean (more of a safety) all seem to be solidly in Rd 1.  However, there are always risers at CB and this number could go up a lot.  

S: 1--Kamren Kichens seems to have a consensus Rd 1 grade.  There will probably be one or two other prospects that could rise as the draft evaluation process unfolds

 

I can't remember a draft that has had such high numbers of really good prospects at QB, WR, and OT that could legitimately be taken in Rd 1.   OT, OG, and CB will have some good players headed into Rd 2. also.  In all likelihood, the Lions will be drafting between 26 and 32 this year.  Their probable draft position and the composition of the draft actually line up pretty well with their needs at OT, OG and CB.  Even if they stay at their position in late in the first round, they should have a chance to get a much prospect than we usually see at that point in the draft.  How do you think the talent at the top of the draft will drive the strategy of Brad Holmes and Company?

What's wild is that out of your numbers, you have counted 27 spots leaving another 5 players to be drafted. So we'll probably see another DT or two and maybe an OC. This is allegedly a strong edge class so we could see another guy sneak in. 

[detfan782004]

There is going to be 1 RB who always sneaks up the draft board. I think for me that one RB this year is D. Edwards of Michigan. Not because it's Michigan but because of his size, wear on tires is low and his insane ability to catch the ball. Watching his catch last week as they split him out at WR reminded me how good he is in that regard.

He has not been running the ball well this season as compared to last.

I just think he has the size and ability teams will covet

Not saying he will get into 1st but higher to mid second would not shock me 

[Sllim Pickens]

58 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

What's wild is that out of your numbers, you have counted 27 spots leaving another 5 players to be drafted. So we'll probably see another DT or two and maybe an OC. This is allegedly a strong edge class so we could see another guy sneak in. 

The weird thing is that some of his locks left out some of the top players at those positions.

At OT Joe Alt has been one of the top 2 all year in most rankings.  Talise Fuaga is top 11 on PFF's overall ranking.  I expect both of those guys to go in the top 4/5 OTs. 

I don't think any guards are locks to go round 1.  Zinter I have seen anywhere from 30th to not in the top 200.  Bebee I have seen top 30 but also barely top 150.  I think it is more likely zero go in the first but I do think we may see an OT drafted in round 1 that plays guard in the NFL.  I also think it is more likely that Sedrick Van Pran at C goes round 1 than any of the guards due to scarcity at the top of the C rankings. 

At edge he mentions Chop Robinson and Bralen Trice as maybes but they are top 3 at the position on most boards.  He mentioned Jack Stewart but JT Tuimoloua is the highest rated OSU edge from every source I have looked at and likely to go round 1.  I think Jonah Ellis from Utah moves into round 1 with a good combine.  He is smaller at 245 but 12 sacks and a 87 PFF grade will have eyes on him in the first for sure. 

I think Leonard Taylor is likely to go round 1 at DT.  Kris Jenkins could also sneak in there.  There always will be DTs going high and as long as some of these guys with great combines can shoot up boards.  I think the Texas DT duo will rise up boards.  They have played great this year and will spark some interest.  There also are a couple guys listed as edge defenders since they play an end in a 3-4 that could shoot up boards like Darius Robinson and Shemar Turner. 

CB has Nate Wiggins in the top 20 on many boards and I think there are a few guys that will shoot up there.  Quinyon Mitchell at Toledo has been insane with allowing 18 catches on 41 targets with no TDs allowed this year.  They have avoided him a lot this year because last year he had 5 INTs and allowed a 35 passer rating when targeting him.  TJ Tampa from Iowa St is another I think will rise up. He has given up a 47 passer rating when being target this year.  He doesn't have the track record of Mitchell but was solid last year.  Denzel Burke has missed some time but he could work his way up into that first round talk again. 

At S Tyler Nubin and Calen Bullock could move into the first round.  I think both will be first rounders with decent combines. 

I agree no RBs will go round 1.  The position had a rebirth in last years draft but there are not any prospects at the level of Bijan or Gibbs.  The combine might sneak someone like Bucky Irving (in the mold of Gibbs), Jonathan Brooks (that Texas backfield last year was crazy with Bijan, Roschon, and Brooks), or TreVeyon Henderson who was projected by some in the first round before the injury and he picked back up where he left off since returning but has been injured the last two years and may scare some teams away.  In general it feels more like the couple of drafts before last year with guys like Swift/Brece Hall etc who are good prospects but not great and therefore will not be drafted round 1.    

 

[Just Want A Title]

1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

What's wild is that out of your numbers, you have counted 27 spots leaving another 5 players to be drafted. So we'll probably see another DT or two and maybe an OC. This is allegedly a strong edge class so we could see another guy sneak in. 

In a typical draft there are usually 15-18 player who are legit high-end prospects but WR, OT and QB seem to be loaded this year.  We really haven' seen any players rise into the first round yet in the way Devon Witherspoon did last year.

[Sllim Pickens]

16 hours ago, detfan782004 said:

A lot of them won't come out. With NIL I would expect 1/3 of the top guys to stay in school 

I think this is not going to happen at all.  The NIL most of these guys are getting is scraps compared to NFL pay.  Especially given they will want to get to the second contract in the NFL earlier.  I have said it elsewhere, but if Caleb Williams waits because of what he is making in NIL, he will need to make about 60 million next year to make it worth it by the end of his career.  Getting to his big payday a year earlier will be much more beneficial and given QB contracts in 5 years likely will be around $60M per year, he will be missing out on a year of that by going back to school.  

[Sllim Pickens]

2 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

In a typical draft there are usually 15-18 player who are legit high-end prospects but WR, OT and QB seem to be loaded this year.  We really haven' seen any players rise into the first round yet in the way Devon Witherspoon did last year.

Witherspoon was a second round prospect at this time last year.  We will see some risers late.  The combine always gives us the risers too like Trayvon Walker. 

[Just Want A Title]

What is really crazy is that with so much talent at the top of the draft, there will still be some pretty good prospects in late Rd 2 and into Rd 3.

[Just Want A Title]

The high number of high-level QB prospects is going to help teams that don't need a QB for sure.  The Pats, Jets, Raiders, Broncos, and Browns in the AFC don't have real long-term answers at QB.  The Commanders, Giants, Seahawks, Rams, Vikings, Packers, Saints Falcons and Buccaneers don't have long-term answers in the NFC.  I am not sure if the Bears have a long-term answer at QB on their roster or not.