How I would rebuild the Jets going into 2024 (deep read)

[jetjuice]

Sadly we are in the midst of another lost season and looking ahead to the future, which is all too familiar for us Jets fans. However, this time around we are in an unfamiliar position under Joe Douglas in his Jets tenure, with no second round pick and limited cap space after splurging for one Aaron Rodgers last offseason. We enter 2024 with $15 million in cap space and 38 players under contract, so we're in a tight spot with many holes to fill. 

However, there is a way we can dig ourselves out of this hole using a short-term approach with several restructures and still be in a good spot for the future. Rodgers probably only has one more year in him, so his pending retirement at the end of the 2024 season will give us plenty of cap relief to get back to normalcy.

 

PHASE 1: RESTRUCTURES/FIFTH YEAR OPTIONS

• RESTRUCTURE DT Quinnen Williams (+$11.72 million in 2024)

• RESTRUCTURE DE John Franklin-Myers (+$8.6 million in 2024)

• RESTRUCTURE WR Allen Lazard (+$6.65 million in 2024)

• RESTRUCTURE LB Quincy Williams (+$3.25 million in 2024)

• RESTRUCTURE QB Aaron Rodgers (+1.3 million in 2024)

• ACCEPT OPTION for OG Alijah Vera-Tucker

• DECLINE OPTION for QB Zach Wilson

New cap total for 2024 = $46.52 million 

 

PHASE 2: CUTS

• CUT TE C.J. Uzomah (+$5.92 million in 2024)

New cap total for 2024 = $52.44 million 

 

PHASE 3: RE-SIGNINGS/RFA TENDERS

While I think we will be able to keep a lot of our key free agents such as Bryce Huff, I think we will also be saying goodbye to a key player in Mekhi Becton. It's been anything but a happy marriage for Joe Douglas' first pick as Jets GM, so he decides to test the waters and likely finds a big payday from an OL desperate team. 

• RE-SIGN DE Bryce Huff for 4 years/$36 million (-$9.2 million in 2024)

• RE-SIGN S Jordan Whitehead for 2 years/$10 million (-$5 million in 2024)

• RE-SIGN DT Quinton Jefferson for 1 year/$2.5 million (-$2.5 million in 2024)

• RE-SIGN K Greg Zuerlein for 1 year/$2 million (-$2 million in 2024)

• RE-SIGN P Thomas Morestead for 1 year/$1.4 million (-$1.4 million in 2024)

Let go: OT Mekhi Becton, DE Carl Lawson, HB Dalvin Cook, CB Bryce Hall, C Connor McGovern, DT Al Woods, S Chuck Clark, WR Randall Cobb, S Adrian Amos, OT Billy Turner, CB Justin Hardee, S Ashtyn Davis, DE Ifeadi Odenigbo, CB Javelin Guidry, DE Bradlee Anae, TE Kenny Yeboah

New cap total for 2024: $32.34 million 

 

PHASE 4: TRADES

Now the fun begins... let's pretend this is how it plays out and the Jets are sitting with ~$24 million in cap space, and let's also say, in the name of persistence and coming full circle, the new Raiders regime decides to take advantage of a team desperate to reunite their QB with his old playmaker. Vegas can offload Davante's contract and kickstart their new regime with an abundance of draft picks and draft capital, plus I can see Adams preferring to play with A-Rod over a rookie QB and facilitating this. We can now afford to make this move, so with that said...

BREAKING: Jets trade a 2024 first round pick (projected #8 overall) and a conditional 2025 2nd round pick to Raiders for WR Davante Adams and a 2024 1st round pick (projected #11 overall)

ANALYSIS: Does the structure of this trade look familiar? It should, because this is exactly what JD did to acquire Aaron Rodgers from the Packers and now he's doing the same to acquire his old buddy Davante Adams the following year. In a year where our draft capital is scarce and JD's job is on the line, he's not worried about 2025 until he can fix things for 2024, so trading away a potential future FRP that he may not even be around to spend is a no-brainer. JD has not shy about moving around in the first round and I expect more of the same this year. It's also the only way we can get our guy in a year where the top free agent options at WR are likely to be retained by their incumbent teams. Rather than get into a bidding war and trying to coax a free agent WR to come to cold tax-heavy NY, JD makes another slick trade for a friend of a friend who's unhappy in Vegas, we once again slide back a few spots but stay in a prime position to get a top talent in round 1, while the Raiders collect more ammo to go get their QB of the future. Upon trading for Davante, we also restructure him to save us an additional $4.42 million against the cap.

Another trade that I have us making that will not impact our cap space at all because the player in question is 100% on our books, but it nets us a draft pick and a roster spot.

BREAKING: Jets trade QB Zach Wilson to the LA Rams for a 2024 6th round pick

Zach reunites with Mike LaFleur back in LA and gets to learn from an offensive wizard in Sean McVay and still sit and learn behind a Super Bowl winning QB, except not with us. Zach needs a change of scenery after his nightmarish run in New York, and we gain a pick that we need.

New cap total for 2024: $19.26 million 

 

PHASE 5: FREE AGENCY

Our big fish of 2024 comes via trade, I don't expect us to be crazy active in free agency. We have just about filled every hole on the roster (pause) except for one a huge problem at both OT positions. Becton leaves us in this scenario and Duane Brown retires, leaving us with just Carter Warren and Max Mitchell at OT. I fully expect our FRP, now at #11 overall, to be the best OT available, but we still cannot trot out Carter Warren and/or Max Mitchell on the other side next year, and we absolutely need a better backup plan at the position in case a starter goes down. So essentially I expect us to sign one key starter, draft another key starter in round 1, and find some backup competition either through FA or on day 3 of the draft. We do need to take one big swing in free agency though, and that man is OT Jonah Williams from the Bengals. It's not often that first round offensive tackles get to unrestricted free agency, but he's been quite vocal about his desire to play LEFT tackle, which we can offer to him, and the Bengals just committed a ton of money to Orlando Brown Jr. (4 years/$64 million) so I don't see Jonah reupping with Cincinnati when they have to worry about extending Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. At only 26 years old and putting decent enough film on tape, JD finally overpays to fill a position of massive need. 

SIGNING: Jets sign OT Jonah Williams for 5 years/$75 million (-$15 million for 2024)

After this, we won't be able to do much, but we took care of the major problems we had coming into this offseason. We still need a competent backup QB to avoid what happened this past year, so I have us signing QB Gardner Minshew for 1 year/$3.5 million to close out free agency

SIGNING: Jets sign QB Gardner Minshew for 1 year/$3.5 million (-$3.5 million for 2024)

New cap total for 2024: $860,000

 

Obviously we will need a lot more than a measly $860,000 going into the draft with not even a full 53-man roster, but between futures/reserve contracts and other small signings that I did not account for in this mock, we are close enough for all intents and purposes to imagine that this is a plausible scenario. One thing I can see happening is Laken Tomlinson getting cut for a cheaper alternative, he has some dead cap but would be the guy who we can save the most from by releasing. The last thing we need to do is create another hole on the o-line which is why I did not include it, but it won't take much for JD to consider a swap if a cheaper option comes along. Anyway, this is how we are looking going into the draft (*I added our practice squad guys on here just to fill out the team)

 

ROSTER

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Gardner Minshew (2)

HB: Breece Hall, Israel Abanikanda (2)

FB: Nick Bawden (1)

WR: Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Xavier Gipson, Jason Brownlee, Irvin Charles, Malik Taylor (7)

TE: Tyler Conklin, Jeremy Ruckert, Zack Kuntz* (3)

LT: Jonah Williams, Carter Warren (2)

LG: Laken Tomlinson (1)

C : Joe Tippman (1)

RG: Alijah Vera-Tucker, Wes Schweitzer (2)

RT: Max Mitchell, Austin Deculus, Adam Pankey* (3)

DE: John Franklin-Myers, Jermaine Johnson, Bryce Huff, Will McDonald, Michael Clemons, Marquiss Spencer* (6)

DT: Quinnen Williams, Quinton Jefferson, Tanzel Smart* (3)

OLB: Quincy Williams, Jamien Sherwood, Chazz Surratt, Maalik Hall, Samuel Eguavoen* (5)

MLB: C.J. Mosley, Zaire Barnes, Caleb Johnson* (3)

CB: Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, Michael Carter II, Brandin Echols, Jarrick Bernard-Converse, Craig James*, Nehemiah Shelton* (7)

S: Jordan Whitehead, Tony Adams, Trey Dean* (3)

ST: Greg Zuerlein, Thomas Morestead, Thomas Hennessey (3)

Roster count: 57

ANALYSIS: We have depth issues at HB, OL, DT, and S that we're going to need to fill with cheap players because of our cap situation, there's only so much restructuring that a team can do. I expect us to ****** up a back-up center, running back, and safety late in free agency. We only have 5 draft picks so they will have to be used wisely, I don't think we can afford to draft a WR before day 3 this year with our remaining needs and how much we have committed to our room already. I think our biggest needs in terms of need for a potential starter goes: 1) RT, 2) DT, 3) Safety.

 

PHASE 6: DRAFT

With only five picks entering the 2024 draft, I thin it's a near certainty that JD trades back in this draft to stockpile more picks, perhaps multiple times. IT's not something he necessarily needs to do early, but I would imagine that JD will be moving back by no later than the first of our two 4th round selections. But since draft pick trades are so hard to predict, I'm going to leave them out in this mock. 

2024 Draft Picks:

1 (11)

3 (72)

4 (108)

4 (113) via DEN

6 (172)

6 (178) via LAR

 

This is how I think the first round will go leading up to our pick (using the draft order as of today)

1. Chicago (via CAR): Caleb Wiliams (QB/USC)

2. Arizona: Marvin Harrison Jr (WR/Ohio St)

3. New England: Drake Maye (QB/UNC)

4. Chicago: Olu Fashanu (OT/Penn St)

5. Washington: Joe Alt (OT/Notre Dame)

6. NY Giants: Malik Nabers (WR/LSU)

7. Tampa Bay: Laiatu Latu (ED/UCLA)

8. Las Vegas (via NYJ): Jayden Daniels (QB/LSU)

9. LA Chargers: Brock Bowers (TE/Georgia)

10. Tennessee: Taliese Fuaga (OT/Oregon St)

11. NY Jets (via LV): 

ANALYSIS: Once again, JD tries to be slick and trade back just a couple of spots and not miss out on his guy, but I hope he didn't have his eyes on Fuaga here who goes one pick before us to the Titans. There's always a league-wide demand for OT's on draft day because teams don't let good ones get away so they are hard to find in free agency, and they also have the lowest bust rate of any position in round 1. However, this is a very deep OT class and there's more than one good option for us available here. 

So with the 11th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft... the New York Jets select... 

JC Latham, Offensive Tackle, University of Alabama

6'6" 360 lbs Jr

The Jets are still able to land a strong OT prospect in a strong overall OT class, as evidenced by the fact that this is already the fourth tackle taken in the first eleven picks. JC Latham has only allowed one sack in his entire college career and has a ton of experience playing in the toughest conference in the country. Latham is an anchor on the o-line and is very strong, as a guy his size should be. But unlike Mekhi, he carries his weight very well and has NFL strength in both pass and run blocking. Once he gets his hands on you, it's over. Latham also has a ton of pancakes on his tape and a surprisingly good kick step off the snap and footwork for a guy of his weight. Although several Alabama o-lineman have failed in the NFL, I have much more confidence in Latham and the traits he possesses. I like him better than Evan Neal and he also can play on the interior if need be, but I think his best fit will be at RT where's been all long. The fit for both player and team is perfect.

Rest of Round 1:

12. New Orleans: Jared Verse (DE/Florida St)

13. Green Bay: Jer'Zhan Newton (DT/Illinois)

14. LA Rams: Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB/Alabama)

15. Cincinnati: Amarius Mims (OT/Georgia)

16. Buffalo: Rome Odunze (WR/Washington)

17. Arizona (via HOU): Dallas Turner (ED/Alabama)

18. Denver: Cooper DeJean (CB/Iowa)

19. Atlanta: Bo Nix (QB/Oregon)

20. Indianapolis: Nate Wiggins (CB/Clemson)

21. Minnesota: Bralen Trice (DE/Washington)

22. Seattle: Michael Penix Jr (QB/Washington)

23. Pittsburgh: Kamren Kinchens (S/Miami)

24. Houston (via CLE): Leonard Taylor II (DL/Miami)

25. Miami: Graham Barton (OL/Duke)

26. Dallas: Keon Coleman (WR/Florida St)

27. Detroit: Chop Robinson (ED/Penn St)

28. Jacksonville: JT Tuimoloau (DE/Ohio St)

29. Kansas City: Emeka Egbuka (WR/Ohio St)

30. San Francisco: Kalen King (CB/Penn St)

31. Baltimore: Josh Newton (CB/TCU)

32. Philadelphia: Kamari Lassiter (CB/Georgia)

**fast forward to Round 3 (72)**

We are in the sweet spot for a couple of positions here, one of them being IDL which I see as a bigger need than most Jets fans probably do. Our run defense has quietly regressed this year and we don't have Big Al Woods plugging up the middle anymore (in real life due to injury, and in this mock as well). The one type of body we don't have along this d-line is a big run stuffer, which would give opposing offenses another thing to think about when game planning against us and our ferocious d-line. 

72. NY Jets: T'Vondre Sweat (DT/Texas)

Exit Al Woods, enter T'Vondre Sweat. This is the big body we need in our rotation to go with Quinnen and Jefferson, and Sweat is in the middle of a monster season for Texas. If we needed a quicker penetrating type of player, I would've gone with Mekhi Wingo here, and in the future I may sway that direction because I love Wingo's quickness and penetration ability, but my focus with this pick is on run defense, and Sweat is a far superior run defender. We shore up both trenches with our first two picks and now have four Day 3 picks to address the following: developmental QB, safety depth, interior OL depth, and backup RB. 

 

4 (108): Audric Estime (HB/Notre Dame)

We need another RB behind Breece, who has been criticized by Saleh for not fighting for the grimy yardage, and I gotta say I agree with Saleh. Breece far too often looks to hit the big play and misses out on routine small gains to keep us ahead of the sticks. With Dalvin set to leave and MCJ gone already, we're left with just Izzy behind Breece and he hasn't shown much, plus he's more of a home run hitter himself. Audric Estime might be the best RB in the nation and gives us another option to rotate in at RB.

 

4 (113): James Williams (S/Miami-FL)

Behind Whitehead and Adams, we have literally no depth, and we could potentially use some competition for Adams. Give me the 6'5" freak former 5-star recruit. Miami has a pretty good track record with safeties in the NFL.

 

6 (172): Bryce Foster (C/Texas A&M)

No depth behind Tippman whatsoever, plus I'm not so sure that Tippman isn't better suited at guard anyway. Bryce Foster is a guy I've liked for a while and gives us more versatility along our o-line which we need to expect will get banged up every year. 

 

6 (178): Jordan Travis (QB/Florida St)

Redshirt year for the kid coming off an injury. He can sit and learn behind Rodgers as our QB3 and maybe shows us something in practice that we give him a chance to compete for the starting job after Rodgers. Teams have had recent success taking swings on Day 3 QB's and now we take ours.

 

POST-DRAFT ROSTER

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Gardner Minshew, Jordan Travis (3)

HB: Breece Hall, Audric Estime, Israel Abanikanda (3)

FB: Nick Bawden (1)

WR: Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Xavier Gipson, Jason Brownlee, Irvin Charles, Malik Taylor (7)

TE: Tyler Conklin, Jeremy Ruckert, Zack Kuntz* (3)

LT: Jonah Williams, Carter Warren (2)

LG: Laken Tomlinson (1)

C : Joe Tippman, Bryce Foster (2)

RG: Alijah Vera-Tucker, Wes Schweitzer (2)

RT: JC Latham, Max Mitchell, Austin Deculus, Adam Pankey* (4)

DE: John Franklin-Myers, Jermaine Johnson, Bryce Huff, Will McDonald, Michael Clemons, Marquiss Spencer* (6)

DT: Quinnen Williams, T'Vondre Sweat, Quinton Jefferson, Tanzel Smart* (4)

OLB: Quincy Williams, Jamien Sherwood, Chazz Surratt, Maalik Hall, Samuel Eguavoen* (5)

MLB: C.J. Mosley, Zaire Barnes, Caleb Johnson* (3)

CB: Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, Michael Carter II, Brandin Echols, Jarrick Bernard-Converse, Craig James*, Nehemiah Shelton* (7)

S: Jordan Whitehead, Tony Adams, James Williams, Trey Dean* (4)

ST: Greg Zuerlein, Thomas Morestead, Thomas Hennessey (3)

Roster count: 60

Edited November 29, 2023 by jetjuice

[jetfuel34]

I thought I read some where the Jets right now are 30 mill under cap without doing anything not 15 mill. I also don't think the Raiders will get much for Adams. I think a second round pick in 2025 would be the max or a 3rd and 5th this year. If the jets drop 3 spots from 8 to 11 that would pretty much max the limit of Adams. So it would be a 2nd round pick or swap of first. No team is going after Adams has he will be 31 by the end of the season. 

 

[jetfan8178]

I cant see restructuring all those guys. Id target Mosley, Lazard, Tomlinson, and Franklin myers. That would be close to 40mill we can add to our cap room. 

Depending on other moves we could have a bunch of available space. mind yu, we have alot of big signings coming in the next couple years

[Mdpackfan22]

6 hours ago, jetfuel34 said:

I thought I read some where the Jets right now are 30 mill under cap without doing anything not 15 mill. I also don't think the Raiders will get much for Adams. I think a second round pick in 2025 would be the max or a 3rd and 5th this year. If the jets drop 3 spots from 8 to 11 that would pretty much max the limit of Adams. So it would be a 2nd round pick or swap of first. No team is going after Adams has he will be 31 by the end of the season. 

 

No team will be going after Davante Adams? I can think of a few teams, including one from Wisconsin that looks to be a contender next year.

[rickyt31]

I wouldn't be mad at all. 

[Big T]

Let's stick to the basics right now, the Jets have 5 draft picks and probably 3 compensatory picks, 1 6th rounder, and 2 7th rounders. 

The higher up in the draft order the Jets get, the greater the likelihood they draft down and garner more draft capitol unless someone like M. Harrison falls into their lap, and if that is the case all bets are off. 

But I expect the Jets to trade down, pick up a 2nd rounder this year, and get both an OT and player to be named later. The draft is deep in OT so the idea that they have to have, HAVE TO HAVE, the number 1 OT is foolish, especially in light of the draft being so deep. 

If Harrison is there, its a no brainer, Harrison and Wilson getting passes from AR. Sign me up. Brock Bowers is another guy who has star potential into the next decade. But if they are both gone, and someone offers to move up to grab a QB and offers some nice, NICE, draft capitol in return. 

Wellllll, the Jets would be foolish not to move down. As for the rest of what you've taken so much time and effort to contemplate, I believe in this: The Pan Theory, and that is, it will all pan out in the end.

 

[JetsandI]

Wow.. I thought I would be the first idiot to make the off season mock.  Congratulation! lol.

 

Anyway, I skipped salary situation since nobody is able to handle it "professionally". lol.

Rodgers will focus on one WR as first read for the majority of season.  Which will Adams or Wilson be his?  I don't know how Wilson feels about being secondary target. I think it is best that Jets and Rodgers should utilize Wilson as primary target so Tyler Boyd could be better option for Jets.

 

Draft overall is solid. 

[jetjuice]

On 12/12/2023 at 6:46 PM, Big T said:

Let's stick to the basics right now, the Jets have 5 draft picks and probably 3 compensatory picks, 1 6th rounder, and 2 7th rounders. 

The higher up in the draft order the Jets get, the greater the likelihood they draft down and garner more draft capitol unless someone like M. Harrison falls into their lap, and if that is the case all bets are off. 

But I expect the Jets to trade down, pick up a 2nd rounder this year, and get both an OT and player to be named later. The draft is deep in OT so the idea that they have to have, HAVE TO HAVE, the number 1 OT is foolish, especially in light of the draft being so deep. 

If Harrison is there, its a no brainer, Harrison and Wilson getting passes from AR. Sign me up. Brock Bowers is another guy who has star potential into the next decade. But if they are both gone, and someone offers to move up to grab a QB and offers some nice, NICE, draft capitol in return. 

Wellllll, the Jets would be foolish not to move down. As for the rest of what you've taken so much time and effort to contemplate, I believe in this: The Pan Theory, and that is, it will all pan out in the end.

 

I don't know whether to take this as you agreeing with me or not.

Trade downs are difficult to predict, it's hard for teams to find common ground on fair value over one individual player. In this case, it's not a draft day trade, it's a sweetener for the Adams deal that JD has implemented not even a year ago.

Thus I have us trading down, and taking the OT4 on the board - but it sounds like you're trying to imply that I have us insisting on OT1? I'm confused.

There is a better chance that I get drafted in the first round than MHJ making it to 10. I would puke if we took a TE over an OT. Seems like you just want an offensive skill position in round 1...

[jetjuice]

On 12/14/2023 at 10:48 AM, JetsandI said:

Anyway, I skipped salary situation since nobody is able to handle it "professionally". lol.

I work in sports professionally and have both my undergrad and graduate degree in sport management. I think I have a pretty good understanding of salary cap.

[Big T]

18 hours ago, jetjuice said:

I work in sports professionally and have both my undergrad and graduate degree in sport management. I think I have a pretty good understanding of salary cap.

Cool, must be a pretty cool gig. I agree with you that any move down will cost something and it isn't as easy as just doing it. The Jets have a history if anything of moving up. But that would cost the Jets draft capitol next season.

I guess the Jets could move up, but at what cost? The entire staff is on notice that 2024 had better be much better than 2023 or heads are going to roll. So JD and Co. really don't have anything to lose by using next years draft capitol by loading up this year.

Let me also say if the Jets do not draft a few OL who they can plug and play this year than JD and Co. will have committed managerial suicide.

Now let me throw a wrench into the works. If the Jets believe they can move AVT to T, move down pick up another T in round 1 and a G in round 2, sign a G in FA depending on who is available or draft another in round 3.

The Jets could revamp the OL immediately, and here's the thing, they have to, HAVE TO, because the OL is in shambles and the backups are atrocious and if AR gets injured again because of the monstrosity of a line it placed in front of him, then there is no next year after 2 years of AR getting injured. Time to move on from this circus. 

 

18 hours ago, jetjuice said:

I work in sports professionally and have both my undergrad and graduate degree in sport management. I think I have a pretty good understanding of salary cap.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Where does Vera-Tucker get hurt? Is it when he is inside? Is it when we move him outside? The number 1 priority is to keep him healthy. If he cannot handle the constant position switches, then stop doing it. Place him somewhere along the line, leave him there and hope for better health.