Draft Discussion 2.0

[H2ThaIzzo]

1 hour ago, bruceb said:

Doesn't answer the question.

Do you really think he is that much better and even if so that it matters the way the game is played today?

1. It's a pretty terrible question to pose. Barkley is as good of a prospect at RB as Zeke Elliott was. In terms of relative value, I don't know. Who is more important to their team when healthy, Zeke or Eric Berry? 

 

Another thing to think about as well is if we did take Barkley up that high, Hue isn't gonna have his job for very long if we spend a top pick on the position and he does his typical abandon the run offense

[TheeRealDeal]

8 hours ago, TheeRealDeal said:

I like to study QBs from many different angle. I follow the idea of "leave no stone unturned" My first study will be how QBs performed in the red zone through-out their careers. 

Red Zone TD-INT
Baker Mayfield       66-3 on 179    36.8%    1.6%    35.2
Sam Darnold         38-2 on 100    38%    2%    36
Josh Rosen          32-7 on 146    21.9%    4.7%    17.2
Josh Allen            19-0 on 65    29.2%    0%    29.2
Lamar Jackson    40-5 on 143    27.9%    3.4%    24.5
Mason Rudolph    42-3 on 162    25.9%    1.8%    24.1
Ryan Finley           21-2 on 103    20.3%    1.9%    18.4
Riley Ferguson    36-1 on 73    49.3%    1.3%    48
Jared Goff            56-1 on 187    29.9%    0.53%    29.37
DeShaun Watson    40-5 on 148    27%    3.3%    23.7
Dak Prescott           45-4 on 162    27.7%    2.4%    25.3
Kirk Cousins            39-5 on 108    36.1%    4.6%    31.5
Matthew Stafford   14-2 on 41    34%    4.8%    29.2
Mitch Trubisky        25-0 on 78    32%    0%    32
Teddy Bridge          42-1 on 116    36.2%    0.86%    35.34
Jamies Winston    44-1 on 102    43.1%    .098%    42.12
Cam Newton        14-0 on 44    31.1%    0%    31.1
Andrew Luck         52-3 on 183    28.4%    1.6%    26.2
Russell Wilson      72-6 on 215    33.4%    2.7%    31.7
Derek Carr             62-3 on 217    28.5%    1.3%    27.2
Marcus Mariota    59-2 on 197    29.9%    1.01%    28.89
Blake Bortles         33-5 on 128    25.7%    3.9%    21.8
Andy Dalton          24-5 on 110    21.8%    4.5%    17.3
Ryan Tannehill     28-1 on 84    33%    1.1%    31.9
Tyrod Taylor        20-2 on 71    28.1%    2.8%    25.3

I looked at some recent bust as well to determine if these numbers relate to success/failure in the NFL. I would have to say my findings would tell me that, yes, they do foretell NFL futures pretty accurately. 

DeShone Kizer    26-7 on 104    25%    6.7%    18.3
Paxton Lynch    37-2 on 121    30.5%    1.6%    28.9
Johnny Manzel    36-6 on 112    32.1%    5.3%    26.8
EJ Manuel    30-6 on 112    26.7%    5.3%    21.4
Robert Griffin    23-3 on 113    20.3%    2.6%    17.7
Jake Locker    17-4 on 84    20.2%    4.7%    15.5
Blaine Gabbert    17-4 on 96    17.7%    4.1%    13.6

Top 5 Touchdown Rates
1. Riley Ferguson 49.3%
2. Jamies Winston 43.1%
3. Sam Darnold 38%
4. Baker Mayfield 36.8%
5. Teddy Bridgewater 36.2%
 
Bottom 5 Touchdown Rates
6. Josh Rosen 21.9%
5. Andy Dalton 21.8%
4. Robert Griffin 20.3%
3. Ryan Finley 20.3%
2. Jake Locker 20.2%
1. Blaine Gabbert 17.7%

Top 5 Interception Rate
1. Cam Newton, Josh Allen, Mitch Trubisky 0%
2. Jared Goff 0.53%
3. Teddy Bridgewater 0.86%
4. Jamies Winston 0.98%
5. Marcus Mariota 1.01%

Bottom 5 Interception Rate
5. Josh Rosen 4.7%
4. Jake Locker 4.7%
3. Matthew Stafford 4.8%
2. E.J. Manuel 5.3%
1. Johnny Manziel 5.3%
Worst DeShone Kizer 6.7

Top 5 TD-INT Rate Ratio
1. Riley Ferguson 48%
2. Jamies Winston 42.12%
3. Sam Darnold 36%
4. Teddy Bridgewater 35.34%
5. Baker Mayfield 35.2%

Bottom 5 TD-INT Rate Ratio
5. Robert Griffin III 17.7%
4. Ryan Tannehill 17.3% (Has been okay in NFL but remember he was just learning in college)
3. Josh Rosen 17.2%
2. Jake Locker 15.5%
1. Blaine Gabbert 13.6%

 

The three biggest things I can take away from my study:

1. I was wrong about Ryan Finley. He does not seem to put the ball in the end zone enough in order to win in the NFL and he turns it over at crucial moments. He seems to be the anti Jameis Winston who turned it over all the time but never in the red zone. Finley seems to never make mistakes with the ball until he is in the redzone. I still believe the good things Finley does are thing that are not coach-able and I believe he can be the exception to the rule, but you do no draft exception in the 1st round. I will now move my evaluation of him to Mid 2nd-3rd rounder.

2. Baker Mayfield as much as I don't like his actions he seems to be nothing like Johnny Manziel on the football field. He makes things happen when it matters most and he protects the football inside the redzone.

3. STAY AWAY from Josh Rosen. Maybe this is what John Dorsey was talking about(Rumored) when he said he was a stay away guy. He is one of the worst in almost ever category and as history has shown he is on par with a lot of recent bust. He very rarely puts the ball in the endzone when he is given the chance and he turns the ball over at an alarming rate when asked to throw inside the red zone. IMO this study has eliminated him for me for consideration in the Top 20 picks. I would not even consider a draft and trade scenario anymore because the other teams might wise up and we would be stuck with him.

 

*Extra Findings*

I looked at several more recent bust at QB and DeShone Kizer had by far the worst interception rate in the redzone. He was 1.4% worse than the next closest guy. How can a regime that is built on analytics and the study of numbers be so careless with a pick? The numbers clearly show DeShone Kizer had a huge weakness in the red zone with interceptions yet Sashi and DePo were okay drafting him anyway? Something doesn't smell right with that pick. That is anti analytic right there. I have to believe that was a Hue Jackson or Jimmy Haslam pick all the way.

I am going to bump this because I feel like I did a lot of work to get paged like that haha.

Sorry if I offend anyone but I still think there is room for discussion on the topic.

[bruceb]

3 minutes ago, H2ThaIzzo said:

1. It's a pretty terrible question to pose. Barkley is as good of a prospect at RB as Zeke Elliott was. In terms of relative value, I don't know. Who is more important to their team when healthy, Zeke or Eric Berry? 

 

Another thing to think about as well is if we did take Barkley up that high, Hue isn't gonna have his job for very long if we spend a top pick on the position and he does his typical abandon the run offense

It is an excellent question, a proof of which is that you still haven't answered it.

Agree with Huebris/Clhueless/Magic Jackson's most likely conundrum to use him or prove his incompetence beyond a doubt.

[pnies20]

6 minutes ago, TheeRealDeal said:

I am going to bump this because I feel like I did a lot of work to get paged like that haha.

Sorry if I offend anyone but I still think there is room for discussion on the topic.

Good job. Pat yourself on the back.

[Bonanza23]

I’d honestly have a hard time passing on Chubb (not the rb) at 4 if he’s there. Darnold and Chubb would be a really good draft.  But you guys know me, bpa and if that’s Barkley I’d be down. RBs are people too ya know. 

[TheeRealDeal]

If we had a more veteran team with sure answers at WR and CB as well as a play maker in the middle of the defense then Saquan Barkley would be a great pick. We don't really have many holes but we are still lacking high end talent at some very important positions. Barkley is a icing on the cake type of pick IMO. I would be on board if I believed we had the cake part down but the reality is that we have a team full of flour, yeast, vanilla, sugar and some other ingredients right now. Our team is still in the cake making process. I believe we have some good ingredients and it may be delicious when it is done but it is still just ingredients right now. 

[H2ThaIzzo]

1 hour ago, bruceb said:

It is an excellent question, a proof of which is that you still haven't answered it.

Agree with Huebris/Clhueless/Magic Jackson's most likely conundrum to use him or prove his incompetence beyond a doubt.

Bruce, I'm not going to entertain your question to appease to you. We are both Browns fans, but when you turn into this guy, it really makes me want to punch you right in your suck hole. 

I'm fine with Barkley

I'm fine with Minkah

I'm fine with Chubb

I'm fine if we get a solid trade down offer 

I'm fine with Roquan Smith, though he isn't projected to go that high, I have a hunch he may end up as the best defensive player in the draft. 

 

[TheeRealDeal]

2 minutes ago, pnies20 said:

Good job. Pat yourself on the back.

I sincerely hope you're being sarcastic. If you don't believe it is statistic worth looking into for your evaluation of QBs then don't and I guess don't read the next one either because I am working on others.

[bruceb]

1 minute ago, TheeRealDeal said:

If we had a more veteran team with sure answers at WR and CB as well as a play maker in the middle of the defense then Saquan Barkley would be a great pick. We don't really have many holes but we are still lacking high end talent at some very important positions. Barkley is a icing on the cake type of pick IMO. I would be on board if I believed we had the cake part down but the reality is that we have a team full of flour, yeast, vanilla, sugar and some other ingredients right now. Our team is still in the cake making process. I believe we have some good ingredients and it may be delicious when it is done but it is still just ingredients right now. 

I and my kids are foodies and quite good at preparing meals.

Love the cooking metaphor!

Oh, and btw, agree completely.

[TheeRealDeal]

4 minutes ago, Bonanza23 said:

I’d honestly have a hard time passing on Chubb (not the rb) at 4 if he’s there. Darnold and Chubb would be a really good draft.  But you guys know me, bpa and if that’s Barkley I’d be down. RBs are people too ya know. 

Chubb, Ward or trade down for me.

[pnies20]

1 minute ago, TheeRealDeal said:

I sincerely hope you're being sarcastic. If you don't believe it is statistic worth looking into for your evaluation of QBs then don't and I guess don't read the next one either because I am working on others.

I was being serious!

[bruceb]

4 minutes ago, H2ThaIzzo said:

Bruce, I'm not going to entertain your question to appease to you. We are both Browns fans, but when you turn into this guy, it really makes me want to punch you right in your suck hole. 

I'm fine with Barkley

I'm fine with Minkah

I'm fine with Chubb

I'm fine if we get a solid trade down offer 

I'm fine with Roquan Smith, though he isn't projected to go that high, I have a hunch he may end up as the best defensive player in the draft. 

 

You called it a "terrible" question.

It is not...it is excellent.

I am a lawyer.

What else would you expect? 

[bruceb]

5 minutes ago, TheeRealDeal said:

I sincerely hope you're being sarcastic. If you don't believe it is statistic worth looking into for your evaluation of QBs then don't and I guess don't read the next one either because I am working on others.

Pay him no mind.

Nice work.

Looking forward to more.

[TheeRealDeal]

1 minute ago, pnies20 said:

I was being serious!

There was suppose to be a "not" in there. That is what I meant.

I was kind of hoping something would stand out with the numbers and other members would share if it changes their thought of a QB or two or if they were surprised by someone. I know it drastically changed my opinion of Josh Rosen and I plan on watching a lot more throws of his in the coming days.

I was also extremely surprised at Josh Allen as he struggles mightily with seeing the entire defense and being accurate. When the field gets shorter you need those traits the most.

[Bonanza23]

5 minutes ago, H2ThaIzzo said:

Bruce, I'm not going to entertain your question to appease to you. We are both Browns fans, but when you turn into this guy, it really makes me want to punch you right in your suck hole. 

I'm fine with Barkley

I'm fine with Minkah

I'm fine with Chubb

I'm fine if we get a solid trade down offer 

I'm fine with Roquan Smith, though he isn't projected to go that high, I have a hunch he may end up as the best defensive player in the draft. 

 

Preach bro!  I have smith on my must watch list. First time I saw anything about him was the bowl game. 

Ok please just take bpa at 4. We have our franchise guy in Darnold. Lets start building the talent now. This is honestly one of the very few times since 99 we’ve been in this position let’s do it right.