warfelg Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 One more game left, so I'm not expecting any major revelations to happen that would change this. I'm using a combination of Spotrak for cap reasons, Fanspeak for offseason moves (since it also has other teams do things to make it at least somewhat realistic), and then PFN's draft simulator. Of note, this is going to be done on an assumed cap of $242,500,000 (Fanspeak is running with $224MM so I'm going to do some stuff in there to make it better) Cuts: Allen Robinson ($10MM Savings), Mitch Trubisky ($2.94MM Savings), Mason Cole ($4.75MM savings), Keanu Neal ($2.71MM Savings) Trade Chuks Okorafor ($8.75MM Savings), Diontae Johnson ($10MM Savings) One I know not everyone agrees with, but I would extend Cam for 3 years, with 2 years being dummy years to spread that hit over a total of 4 years. I think if you did this you can reduce his cap hit in year 1 to about $8-10MM. And to be honest I rather do something like this and cut Larry O while pushing Benton into a starting DE role than keep Larry O, cut Cam, and have that hit to the run defense in that transition. In my sim here I have traded Okorafor for a 5th from Vegas, Johnson for a 3rd from KC. Day 1 offers: Braxton Berrios, Patrick Queen, Jaylon Johnson are the targets and I get all three. Christian Wilkins was my other day 1 target and I didn't get him. Oh well. For big game hunting I like who I got coming into FA as my biggest targets. Year 1 hits: Berrios $2.75MM, Queen $12.5MM, Johnson $13.75MM Extended targets: Solomon Thomas, Isaiah Wynn are the extended targets I like. Thomas can offer some good depth on the DL as I would be expecting Cam and Benton to be starters. Wynn is a decent backup swing tackle. Year 1 hits: Thomas $3.5MM, Wynn $5MM (Don't kill me if these numbers are off, Fanspeak has you put in AAV and percent guaranteed and it tells you year 1 cap hits) I like where I'm sitting at this point without roster filler VMSB type players, so I'm ready to head into the draft with what I have. TRADE: Yes, I have a trade here. Pick 49 is getting traded to the Chicago Bears for QB Justin Fields and a 2025 6th (conditional) NFL DRAFT: 18 traded for 23 and 85 - A fair number of my early targets were gone, and I know people don't love the move around in these mocks, but I want to do it. I have plans on moving a little later in the draft so having 85 is a necessary thing. because of losing out on pick 49 in the trade for Fields. 23 - Amarius Mims OT Gerogia - With Jones you have your bookends for 10+ years. Just a giant people mover of a human. I really like what he brings to the fold with being a more power run team. 82 and 124 traded for 75 and 147 75 - Malachi Corely WR Western Kentucky - We will need a replacement for Johnson in this offseason plan. Corely would be a fantastic add with GP and Fields as the QB as the guy will really open things up by being a release valve for big plays. 85 - Jackson Powers-Johnson C Oregon - Yes the early focus in this draft is get the O-Line in order. Because I am making the investment in QB, I'm not going to let the OL be what can sink or swim issue at the position. 119 - McKinnley Jackson NT Texas A&M - Man, I really enjoy his tape. I see shades of another Texas based NT in Casey Hampton. A short, squat, wide defender he's really smart in the run game bug just a boulder to move. I think in the end he'll be close to Sweat in on field impact despite going a little later. 147 - Jaden Davis CB Miami (FL) - I like him as a nickel corner. He's a little smaller but a willing tackler and just sticks with guys. 177 - Jaylon Carlies S Missouri - Jaylon is a S in a LB's body, and here, that's a good thing. At 6'2" 225 I envision him being a big nickel hybrid player who matches up with TE's in the division like Njoku and Andrews. 210 - Keandre Lambert-Smith WR PSU - I foresee a solid ST player who's likely more effective as a WR than other options we've tried here in the past. ROSTER: Offense - QB - Justin Fields, Mason Rudolph, Kenny Pickett RB - Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, UDFA TE - Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington FB/HBack - Connor Heyward WR - George Pickens, Calvin Austin WR - Malachi Corely, Mile Boykin WR - Braxton Berrios Starting OL L-R - Broderick Jones, Isaac Seumolu, Jackson Powers-Johnson, James Daniels, Amarius Mims Depth OL - Isaiah Wynn, Spencer Anderson, Nate Herbig Defense - Starting DL L-R - Keanu Benton, McKinnley Jackson, Cam Heyward Depth DL - Isaiahh Loudermilk, Solomin Thomas, Montravius Adams Starting EDGE - TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith Depth Edge - Markus Golden, Nick Herbig Starting LB - Elandon Roberts/Cole Holcomb, Patrick Queen Depth LB - Elandon Robers/Cole Holcomb (recovery dependent), Mikal Walker Starting CB's - Joey Porter Jr, Jaylon Johnson Depth CB's - Jaden Davis, Darius Rush, Cory Trice Starting S's - Minkah Fitzpatrick, Patrick Peterson Depth S's - Demontae Kazee, Jaylon Carlies, Miles Killabrew 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwalker Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I like Queen and Johnson and the cuts. Bears will stick with Fields, so I think that part of the plan isn't happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFF Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Don’t think you’re gonna have 3 mid round picks starting out right. WR is very thin…I understand trading DJ but you’re still going to have to replace him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rivers Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) why would Mason return to be a reserve yet again? Will he have to be over 30 before he is allowed to start? I'm not a fan of fields, don't understand the hype. Great athlete, sure, but I would prefer a pocket QB that scans the field. RT and C early for sure, you know this is important. If it's SVP , Fuaga or your picks , something like that. Get the OL set for the next 5 years Queen - no doubt but he will be in high demand NO to loudermilk, adams - get legit anchors and then a better LB than walker such as Jack I was hoping they would try Patrick at safety so this would be nice to see. 2 safeties that can pick off QB's back there Edited January 2 by 3rivers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 11 hours ago, AFF said: Don’t think you’re gonna have 3 mid round picks starting out right. WR is very thin…I understand trading DJ but you’re still going to have to replace him. While I think it's unlikely, I think that WR would be the only place you sign more. In this sim, I was trying to be realistic, and for that the Bengals were able to resign Higgins to a deal. Barrios has inside/outside ability, as does Corely. But Corely is the YAC got in college, and in this thought process we would be bringing in a OC who can do some good things with Fields and give us more a ground based RPO game, so I didn't see the huge need to overkill the WR thing. JPJ is going to be a day 1 starter wherever he's drafted to. I think he's that good. Center as a position just has been devalued some and that's why I think he's available there. Jackson at NT - Designating him a starter was more about just listing the base 3-4 as the easy way to write who plays where than starting with our more common 2-4 alignment. Reality he's a 35-40% of downs player and him being a starter is merely a semantic here. He's a starter type player in that role of run stuffer. 10 hours ago, 3rivers said: why would Mason return to be a reserve yet again? Will he have to be over 30 before he is allowed to start? I'm not a fan of fields, don't understand the hype. Great athlete, sure, but I would prefer a pocket QB that scans the field. He's the QB2 and that's his NFL role. He was able to go to anyone this offseason and no one wanted him. Fields has been improved late this season, they likely go Williams because they will possibly have a new GM and new HC who might want to move on from Fields. Quote RT and C early for sure, you know this is important. If it's SVP , Fuaga or your picks , something like that. Get the OL set for the next 5 years Both of these positions have players at the right place in the draft. RT is unnecessary to chase in FA and C has no depth in FA. So if there's ever a year to go for the double dip like this and not waste money on FA's this is it. Quote Queen - no doubt but he will be in high demand NO to loudermilk, adams - get legit anchors and then a better LB than walker such as Jack I was hoping they would try Patrick at safety so this would be nice to see. 2 safeties that can pick off QB's back there Queen will be in high demand, but we will have the cap for him. Loudermilk/Adams - They have actually been decent as depth this year. And you aren't going to take that whole room down to 2 returning players and replace 4-5 guys out of it. There's only so much you can do in every offseason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zflairway Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 (edited) On 1/1/2024 at 1:17 PM, warfelg said: Cuts: Allen Robinson ($10MM Savings), Mitch Trubisky ($2.94MM Savings), Mason Cole ($4.75MM savings), Keanu Neal ($2.71MM Savings) Trade Chuks Okorafor ($8.75MM Savings), Diontae Johnson ($10MM Savings) One I know not everyone agrees with, but I would extend Cam for 3 years, with 2 years being dummy years to spread that hit over a total of 4 years. I think if you did this you can reduce his cap hit in year 1 to about $8-10MM. And to be honest I rather do something like this and cut Larry O while pushing Benton into a starting DE role than keep Larry O, cut Cam, and have that hit to the run defense in that transition. In my sim here I have traded Okorafor for a 5th from Vegas, Johnson for a 3rd from KC. Day 1 offers: Braxton Berrios, Patrick Queen, Jaylon Johnson are the targets and I get all three. Christian Wilkins was my other day 1 target and I didn't get him. Oh well. For big game hunting I like who I got coming into FA as my biggest targets. Year 1 hits: Berrios $2.75MM, Queen $12.5MM, Johnson $13.75MM Extended targets: Solomon Thomas, Isaiah Wynn are the extended targets I like. Thomas can offer some good depth on the DL as I would be expecting Cam and Benton to be starters. Wynn is a decent backup swing tackle I'm thinking post June 1st cuts on Larry O and Mitch. With two years left, I think that's how post June 1st works best. If you spread it over two years, and they have two years left, it should be spread over two years. Right? You'd save $5.25m on Mitch, $9.75m on Larry O not too mention saving $5.75m in real cash 🚲 Cam on an extension makes sense to me. Something like 3 years but play and pay as you go with two roster bonuses built in the deal. Maybe like 3 years, $30m in new money. Last year with no roster bonus as a nudge. Moving $15m into year one salary and spreading it over four years for savings of $11.25m. Keep Cam and save nearly $12m makes sense with a DL room that's in disarray. Larry O is a foot plateau, and I agree Benton would fit best in that DE role, which would open up DeMarvin Leal to move back to his more traditional 3 tech DL behind Cam. Chuks is a cut for me bc he's not tradable. DJ much the same unless you take bottom bid. Patrick Peterson is an outright cut at $6.85m savings, another $3m in big bucks 📢 James Daniels is a cut for me over Mason Cole. You don't have a guard on the roster, but it's easier to get a guard than a center, because people tend to hold onto their center, as it's the motorboat of the squad. This move saves $8.25m and Matt Feiler played at $2m last year. Maybe you wanna go back down that road. There's a lot of cute stats here on this PFF advanced analytics that you could probably derive a pattern if you are so inclined. 😅 Look at Kevin Dotson here projected at 4 years, $70m when he couldn't even start here. Alarm bells should be ringing at the offensive line coach and hit inability to work with a player that just didn't seem to work out here but was an all-pro level caliber player elsewhere. Serious staff issue there. Lavonte Davis is a guy that I've always liked and it's either him or Devin White for my money. With Devin White projected at $20m a year, no ILB is worth that, so David is probably a better bet as you rebuild the room again to the tune of 1 year, $4m to be the best bid. Josey Jewell is another name I liked out of Iowa for his ability to watch the qbs eyes and drop and move in space with his eyes on the quarterback. Let's go with something at around $7m a year and replace Cole Holcomb. This seems to be where the depth is in the free agent class bc no one wants to pay a premium for a position that will get chewed up by the nuances of the day. Instead of feelers when it comes to free agency, do your work, get a starter, and be done with it. Jordan Whitehead is the typical Steelers hometown splash that blows up in their face in epic proportions. Something to the tune of 4 years, $26m and I want no part of that deal or Jordan Whitehead. Chase Young and Alex Highsmith might be in the same boat here. At least statistically in a bubble which makes you wonder how much did Alex Highsmith get overpaid when Chase Young will be fighting to get 1 year, $12m but we got Highsmith coming in at $13m with rising cap costs over the next three years. Edited January 9 by zflairway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeler Hitman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/1/2024 at 4:17 PM, warfelg said: I Am just seeing this. , This is a very detailed and good write up. Cuts: Allen Robinson ($10MM Savings), Mitch Trubisky ($2.94MM Savings), Mason Cole ($4.75MM savings), Keanu Neal ($2.71MM Savings) I agree with you 💯% here Trade Chuks Okorafor ($8.75MM Savings), Diontae Johnson ($10MM Savings) I think they keep Dionte and will probably cut Chuks. I would be surprised if anyone trades for him with his salary. One I know not everyone agrees with, but I would extend Cam for 3 years, with 2 years being dummy years to spread that hit over a total of 4 years. I think if you did this you can reduce his cap hit in year 1 to about $8-10MM. I agree as well. He probably plays one more season. And to be honest I rather do something like this and cut Larry O while pushing Benton into a starting DE role than keep Larry O, cut Cam, and have that hit to the run defense in that transition. Larry O just hasn't made the impact that he has with other teams. I think we can save and upgrade there. I doubt he takes a pay cut or restructures his deal. In my sim here I have traded Okorafor for a 5th from Vegas, Johnson for a 3rd from KC. Day 1 offers: Braxton Berrios, Patrick Queen, Jaylon Johnson are the targets and I get all three. There is already a ton of $$$ on defense, but CB Jaylin Johnson is my #1 target to pair with Porter. I think Queen 👑 is going to be too expensive. I could live with Berrios. I have not done any homework on free agents or draft picks yet. Christian Wilkins was my other day 1 target and I didn't get him. Oh well. For big game hunting I like who I got coming into FA as my biggest targets. Year 1 hits: Berrios $2.75MM, Queen $12.5MM, Johnson $13.75MM Extended targets: Solomon Thomas, Isaiah Wynn are the extended targets I like. I would love Solomon Thomas. I am not sure about Wynn especially if they draft a RT and still have Moore for at least another season. TRADE: Yes, I have a trade here. Pick 49 is getting traded to the Chicago Bears for QB Justin Fields and a 2025 6th (conditional) I don't think the Steelers give up on Pickett yet, nor should they. He is less than 32 games in and the inconsistent OL play, injuries, and system are things that limited Pickett. The excuses and reasons are being removed. Kenny will sink or swim with a new OC and system. One reason why I think that they keep Dionte as well. On 1/1/2024 at 4:17 PM, warfelg said: NFL DRAFT: 23 - Amarius Mims OT Gerogia - With Jones you have your bookends for 10+ years. Just a giant people mover of a human. I really like what he brings to the fold with being a more power run team. They need a good RT. Not sure that has to be a first round picks, but it is addressed. 82 and 124 traded for 75 and 147 75 - Malachi Corely WR Western Kentucky - We will need a replacement for Johnson in this offseason plan. Corely would be a fantastic add with GP and Fields as the QB as the guy will really open things up by being a release valve for big plays. I am getting a Center here most likely. I do think that they draft a WR within the first four rounds. 85 - Jackson Powers-Johnson C Oregon - Yes the early focus in this draft is get the O-Line in order. Because I am making the investment in QB, I'm not going to let the OL be what can sink or swim issue at the position. I agree. Get a new OC and look to add to the OL. They can use a free agent veteran Center as well. 119 - McKinnley Jackson NT Texas A&M - Man, I really enjoy his tape. I see shades of another Texas based NT in Casey Hampton. A short, squat, wide defender he's really smart in the run game bug just a boulder to move. I think in the end he'll be close to Sweat in on field impact despite going a little later. I love this type of guy to develop and work in with Benton. 147 - Jaden Davis CB Miami (FL) - I like him as a nickel corner. He's a little smaller but a willing tackler and just sticks with guys. 177 - Jaylon Carlies S Missouri - Jaylon is a S in a LB's body, and here, that's a good thing. At 6'2" 225 I envision him being a big nickel hybrid player who matches up with TE's in the division like Njoku and Andrews. I would look to draft a safety sooner than later. Patrick Peterson will be a one year starter next to Minkah, but they could use another safety. 210 - Keandre Lambert-Smith WR PSU - I foresee a solid ST player who's likely more effective as a WR than other options we've tried here in the past. Get me a punter here or sign a veteran. ROSTER: Offense - QB - Justin Fields, Mason Rudolph, Kenny Pickett RB - Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, UDFA TE - Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington FB/HBack - Connor Heyward WR - George Pickens, Calvin Austin WR - Malachi Corely, Mile Boykin WR - Braxton Berrios Starting OL L-R - Broderick Jones, Isaac Seumolu, Jackson Powers-Johnson, James Daniels, Amarius Mims Depth OL - Isaiah Wynn, Spencer Anderson, Nate Herbig Defense - Starting DL L-R - Keanu Benton, McKinnley Jackson, Cam Heyward Depth DL - Isaiahh Loudermilk, Solomin Thomas, Montravius Adams Starting EDGE - TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith Depth Edge - Markus Golden, Nick Herbig Starting LB - Elandon Roberts/Cole Holcomb, Patrick Queen Depth LB - Elandon Robers/Cole Holcomb (recovery dependent), Mikal Walker Need help there. Gotta draft or sign someone. Mykal Walker needs to be replaced. Starting CB's - Joey Porter Jr, Jaylon Johnson Depth CB's - Jaden Davis, Darius Rush, Cory Trice Starting S's - Minkah Fitzpatrick, Patrick Peterson Depth S's - Demontae Kazee, Jaylon Carlies, Miles Killabrew I am looking to upgrade here. I like Trenton Thompson better than Kazee. Nice post👍🏿 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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