Jameson_Neat Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 11 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: When you think about it, they sort of... did. Goff only killing 27 seconds after the first knee would've been one of those "same old Lions" situations. If only Bowles wanted to try and win it. Not just Bowles, you're also saying every competitive TB defender on the field was not trying to win as they also have the ability to call TO. We're so close to figuring out why they all didn't.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, Jameson_Neat said: Not just Bowles, you're also saying every competitive TB defender on the field was not trying to win as they also have the ability to call TO. We're so close to figuring out why they all didn't.... Because Bowles didn't want to use it. That part isn't a mystery. The mystery is why Bowles wouldn't want to do everything in his power to try and win a playoff game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mse326 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 21 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said: Yeah I didn't understand the rationale there, either. They were saying it's only a 95% chance to make both kicks but each 2-pt conversion change is 55% so take the difference or something like that but wtf man just kick the XP twice or go for 2 the 2nd time, idk. Let's run the 3 scenarios Kick 2 XPT's 95% conversion rate means you have a 90.2% chance of making both going to overitme Assuming a 50% of winning in OT you have a 45.1% of winning the game Kick XPT then Go for 2 95% conversion rate means 1)95% chance you are within 7 and 2)a 5% you are within 8 If 1) then a 55% conversion rate on 2pt conversion means 52.25% chance of winning If 2) then a 55% conversion rate on 2pt conversion means 2.75% of getting to OT and 1.375% of winning So combined you have a 53.625% chance of winning Go for 2 and then XPT or 2 based on result 55% conversion rate means 1)55% chance you are within 6 and 2)45% you are within 8 If 1) then a 95% conversion rate means A) 52.25% you win the game and B) 2.75% you go to OT If B) then assuming 50% chance of winning in OT is 1.375% you win If 2) then a 55% conversion rate means a 24.75% you go to OT and a 12.375% you win So combined you have a 66% of winning Going for 2 twice is the right decision pretty clearly 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louis Friend Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: Well, I'm not really leaving it out. I acknowledge that it happened. That doesn't change the fact that Bowles could have taken a timeout with 35 seconds left on 4th down. But, maybe that's a strategy: don't use that timeout and make your opponent think it's over, then use it right at the end. I don't know. I do know that Bowles could have stopped the clock on 4th down. That's a fact. Most teams aren’t the Saints and just stick to good sportsmanship. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 Just now, Louis Friend said: Most teams aren’t the Saints and just stick to good sportsmanship. See, what? That part right there. Sportsmanship? It would've been bad sportsmanship to take advantage of the Lions' clock mismanagement? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louis Friend Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 (edited) 1 hour ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: See, what? That part right there. Sportsmanship? It would've been bad sportsmanship to take advantage of the Lions' clock mismanagement? You think the Lions mismanaged the clock but they really just adhered to sportsmanship and knelt quickly to end it. Again, if Bowles uses the timeout, your premise is everything else remains the same but that’s not true. Edited January 23 by Louis Friend 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jameson_Neat Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: Because Bowles didn't want to use it. That part isn't a mystery. The mystery is why Bowles wouldn't want to do everything in his power to try and win a playoff game. Why did they all listen to Bowles when, as you're implying, it was obvious Bowles was clearly in the wrong? Surely if there was any time to go rogue, this was it, being the playoffs and all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mse326 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Louis Friend said: You think the Lions mismanaged the clock but they really just adhered to sportsmanship and kept quickly to end it. Again, if Bowles uses the timeout, your premise is everything else remains the same but that’s not true. They did mismanage it, Campbell admitted it. And he is sayhing use the TO after the 3rd down play when you know it was about 35 seconds left 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louis Friend Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Jameson_Neat said: Why did they all listen to Bowles when, as you're implying, it was obvious Bowles was clearly in the wrong? Surely if there was any time to go rogue, this was it, being the playoffs and all. See, this part, why are we arguing over the hypothetical that a team could have gone rogue or off script and therefore, both head coaches were in the wrong and one should be fired. 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 Just now, Louis Friend said: You think the Lions mismanaged the clock but they really just adhered to sportsmanship and kept quickly to end it. Again, if Bowles uses the timeout, your premise is everything else remains the same but that’s not true. It's not me that thinks that the Lions mismanaged the clock. Campbell himself admitted that the Lions mismanaged the clock. “First of all, we didn’t handle that whole thing well on our end,” Campbell told beat writers. “We should have bled it more than we did. Look, I’ll be the first to admit that, and that’s on me." And, to clarify, my premise is that, had Bowles taken advantage of the Lions' mismanagement and used the timeout with 35 seconds left, the Lions would've been forced to attempt a kick that their kicker has a roughly 77% chance of making. If the Lions are in the Super Bowl and their opponent is facing 4th down with 35 seconds left, I want my coach stopping the clock 100% of the time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louis Friend Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Well then, I suggest you write Dan Campbell a letter and tell him what your expectations are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jameson_Neat Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 (edited) 5 minutes ago, mse326 said: 4 minutes ago, Louis Friend said: See, this part, why are we arguing over the hypothetical that a team could have gone rogue or off script and therefore, both head coaches were in the wrong and one should be fired. 😂 Yesterday it was that 100+ people couldn't figure out how many TOs TB had left even though it was announced to the crowd and posted on the scoreboard. Edited January 23 by Jameson_Neat 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 Just now, Louis Friend said: Well then, I suggest you write Dan Campbell a letter and tell him what your expectations are. ... to try to win the game? I don't think he needs to hear that from me. I think Campbell wants to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louis Friend Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Jameson_Neat said: Pretty sure that he didn't like how obvious it Yesterday it was that 100+ people couldn't figure out how many TOs TB had left even though it was announced to the crowd and posted on the scoreboard. End of the season boredom, just weird to see it when there are games left to be played. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 Just now, Jameson_Neat said: Yesterday it was that 100+ people couldn't figure out how many TOs TB had left even though it was announced to the crowd and posted on the scoreboard. That was a hypothetical explanation that, to some, made more sense than the coach not wanting to try to win. When Bowles himself admitted that he knew they had the timeout, that hypothetical was proven incorrect and disregarded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.