Pre SB Mock, Non-Sim

[rlon]

1-20 = Amarius Mims, RT from Georgia; 6-6 330 (top RTs and JPJ off the board, Steelers take a chance on highest OL upside)

2-51 = Darius Robinson, 5 Tech from Missouri; 6-5 286 (riser and one of the few that fit the scheme, room to add ten pounds)

3-84 = Sedrick Van Pran, OC from Georgia; 6-4 310 (faller who is capable of starting for and upgrading upon Cole from day 1)

4-119 = Cedric Gray, LB from North Carolina; 6-2 232 (all around backer who looked good in coverage at Senior Bowl)

4-120 = Jaylin Simpson, DB from Auburn; 6-1 178 (surprisingly aggressive slot capable player who can also add ten pounds)

6-196 = Fabian Lovett, NT from Florida State; 6-4 315 (much needed run stuffer, part timer but solid value here)

7-237 = Ryan Rehkow, P from BYU; 6-5 235 (one of the highest punt yardage averages for a college career, good placement)

I tried to represent a realistic draft, based on some recent value trends I’ve seen, many of which are not going in our favor so to speak. A slot receiver in free agency, as well as a significant DB, is needed under this scenario. The third decent FA signing will be a veteran QB, Mason or otherwise.

If a trade down yielded more picks, I would have targeted a slot receiver, like Thrash,  and a later round project at QB, like Hartman. With this draft, we would end up with 60 percent of our starting line as former Bulldogs, which you would hope makes cohesion easy in terms of the  foundation to grow upon.

My change of heart on Robinson stems from watching some film of him, seeing the potential to add to his frame, and needing to set in motion the process of supporting/eventually replacing Cam.

 

Edited February 10 by rlon

[Steeler Hitman]

1 hour ago, rlon said:

1-20 = Amarius Mims, RT from Georgia; 6-6 330 (top RTs and JPJ off the board, Steelers take a chance on highest OL upside)

Based on scenario a very solid pick. The Steelers are set at OT the next 10-12 years. A

2-51 = Darius Robinson, 5 Tech from Missouri; 6-5 286 (riser and one of the few that fit the scheme, room to add ten pounds)

It's early, but his name is shooting up the boards. I don't  know if he makes it this far, but if so, you got a solid pick and again addressed a priority and got draft value. A

3-84 = Sedrick Van Pran, OC from Georgia; 6-4 310 (faller who is capable of starting for and upgrading upon Cole from day 1)

If he's there awesome. With Center being so top heavy and not a lot of options, I expect him to be long gone. Can shoot back up with good Combine and Pro Day. If there another A for value and need.

4-119 = Cedric Gray, LB from North Carolina; 6-2 232 (all around backer who looked good in coverage at Senior Bowl)

Depending on what you do in free agency, this could be good or bad. Not sure how much he could contribute right away and I am guessing you see him being a pass coverage type. C

4-120 = Jaylin Simpson, DB from Auburn; 6-1 178 (surprisingly aggressive slot capable player who can also add ten pounds)

I don't know a lot about this player, but he fits a need. We need help in the slot and upgrades to the secondary badly. B

6-196 = Fabian Lovett, NT from Florida State; 6-4 315 (much needed run stuffer, part timer but solid value here)

Solid guy. A bit undersized for traditional NG, but a DT type that helps the interior defense. B

7-237 = Ryan Rehkow, P from BYU; 6-5 235 (one of the highest punt yardage averages for a college career, good placement)

He is definitely on the radar to replace Percy harvin. Punter needs to be addressed and waiting for a free agent cast-off is not the answer. A

I tried to represent a realistic draft, based on some recent value trends I’ve seen, many of which are not going in our favor so to speak. A slot receiver in free agency, as well as a significant DB, is needed under this scenario. The third decent FA signing will be a veteran QB, Mason or otherwise.

I agree. Hard to evaluate actual draft value this early as players will still rise and fall based on Combine and Pro days.

If a trade down yielded more picks, I would have targeted a slot receiver, like Thrash,  and a later round project at QB, like Hartman. With this draft, we would end up with 60 percent of our starting line as former Bulldogs, which you would hope makes cohesion easy in terms of the  foundation to grow upon.

Hmm. Never thought of that, but makes sense.

My change of heart on Robinson stems from watching some film of him, seeing the potential to add to his frame, and needing to set in motion the process of supporting/eventually replacing Cam.

I have DL as a weakness as well. You addressed both spots and we need to look at a Cam replacement to be groomed. I think they thought Loudermilk would/could be that guy. So far he is no where close to being starting material.

 

 

[armsteeld]

@rlon  @Steeler Hitman I agree with 99% of what Steelers Hitman said. Love the positions and the players. I don't see Robinson making it out the 1st round tho. It's hard coming up with a comp for Darius Robinson but the closest I can think of is JJ Watt. 

[rlon]

59 minutes ago, armsteeld said:

@rlon  @Steeler Hitman I agree with 99% of what Steelers Hitman said. Love the positions and the players. I don't see Robinson making it out the 1st round tho. It's hard coming up with a comp for Darius Robinson but the closest I can think of is JJ Watt. 

Got ya, but one question…wasn’t Benton getting similar hype this time last year? Similar situations? Still, maybe my second rounder is the least likely player to be available in this mock…don’t know.

[warfelg]

2 minutes ago, rlon said:

Got ya, but one question…wasn’t Benton getting similar hype this time last year? Similar situations? Still, maybe my second rounder is the least likely player to be available in this mock…don’t know.

The difference is the quality of the rest of the class. Last years DT class was good and deep. So players weren’t pushed up the board because teams felt they could wait. This year isn’t super deep, so when a guy stands out they tend to “fly” further up the boards more because teams want to ensure they get one. 

Reality always is with these big jumpers:

If they are seniors NFL teams have known and liked guys and the draftniks are just catching up because talking the big names gets clicks. 

If they are underclassman it’s because the draftniks didn’t bother. They generally admit that in season, unless it’s a big name underclassman, it wastes time to scout them if they don’t come out. 

[rlon]

2 hours ago, warfelg said:

The difference is the quality of the rest of the class. Last years DT class was good and deep. So players weren’t pushed up the board because teams felt they could wait. This year isn’t super deep, so when a guy stands out they tend to “fly” further up the boards more because teams want to ensure they get one. 

Reality always is with these big jumpers:

If they are seniors NFL teams have known and liked guys and the draftniks are just catching up because talking the big names gets clicks. 

If they are underclassman it’s because the draftniks didn’t bother. They generally admit that in season, unless it’s a big name underclassman, it wastes time to scout them if they don’t come out. 

But isn’t DL one of those positions wherein a lot of players rise and the depth seemingly improves each year going into the draft? I don’t really notice that phenomenon as much with other positions. That said, Steelers are seemingly in a bit of a quandary given the lack of ‘purer fits’ with their defense. 

[JustPlainNasty]

Robinson is likely late 1st or early to mid 2nd at worst. It'd be very surprising after the Senior Bowl that he made it to us. 

I like Simpson & Rehkhow. Content w Van Prann. 

Edited February 11 by JustPlainNasty

[warfelg]

3 hours ago, rlon said:

But isn’t DL one of those positions wherein a lot of players rise and the depth seemingly improves each year going into the draft? I don’t really notice that phenomenon as much with other positions. That said, Steelers are seemingly in a bit of a quandary given the lack of ‘purer fits’ with their defense. 

Not really isolated to DL.  Like I said it’s the draftnik/stat watchers where that changes.  DL isn’t hard to scout if you know what you are looking for.  Robinson was “lost” because he was doubled a lot in the SEC, so his counting stats were low.  But if you watch the tape you can see someone that gets off, needed to be doubled because his hands are heavy and active.  He was giving others chances in single match ups who couldn’t pull through.

He’s going to be a monster in a defense that has one other guy you need to double because you can’t constantly block 4 with 6.  So he’s going to eat as a supporting attacker on the defense.

[Steeler Hitman]

7 hours ago, rlon said:

Got ya, but one question…wasn’t Benton getting similar hype this time last year? Similar situations? Still, maybe my second rounder is the least likely player to be available in this mock…don’t know.

Yes he blew up at the Senior Bowl, but the draftniks already knew who he was. In my humble opinion it is hard to view how things will go from one draft to another.  I think a very similar situation with Robinson in that he dominated in the practices. You really never know. Most of us didn't expect Benton to be there. I remember having discussions about how the bigger 1-tech guys are not as popular and you don't invest a first rounder on one unless he is a Vita Vea type. I liked Benton, Mazi Smith, and Siaki Ilka. 

6 hours ago, warfelg said:

The difference is the quality of the rest of the class. Last years DT class was good and deep. So players weren’t pushed up the board because teams felt they could wait. This year isn’t super deep, so when a guy stands out they tend to “fly” further up the boards more because teams want to ensure they get one. 

I actually think that this year is deeper top to bottom. But, I get what you are saying. As much as we try to make this an exact science, it comes down to who you like a lot more than we give credit. Last year was said to be a good year to get a center, but there was no JPP. 🤷‍♂️

I think every year you have players that get over-drafted according to draftniks. I didn't think the Steelers could get Porter or Benton because of the premium on corner-backs and defensive lineman. Fortunately some teams over-drafted (again based on so called experts). I liked Mazi Smith a lot as well, but as the bigger NG type that I like run stuffing. Benton has a more well rounded game. I was shocked that Mazi went in the first round and I thought he was actually rated behind Benton on many boads.  I thought both were mid second to very early third round prospects. I also liked Siaki Ilka who went to the Browns in round three. 

Reality always is with these big jumpers:

Yep. See above.

If they are seniors NFL teams have known and liked guys and the draftniks are just catching up because talking the big names gets clicks. 

If they are underclassman it’s because the draftniks didn’t bother. They generally admit that in season, unless it’s a big name underclassman, it wastes time to scout them if they don’t come out. 

I got to see a whiff of Logan Lee looking at film on Van Ness and Jack Campbell last year. I hoped the Steelers might have drafted one of them.  Lee looked like someone who might be a potential for this year. He didn't have as big a year as I thought he might, but he looks like he has potential. He needs time to develop, but team captain, mature, said to be married..... Why I added him to my mock.

 

[warfelg]

55 minutes ago, Steeler Hitman said:

I got to see a whiff of Logan Lee looking at film on Van Ness and Jack Campbell last year. I hoped the Steelers might have drafted one of them.  Lee looked like someone who might be a potential for this year. He didn't have as big a year as I thought he might, but he looks like he has potential. He needs time to develop, but team captain, mature, said to be married..... Why I added him to my mock.

Those guys got missed by many because of overthinking. Campbells tape read great, and his measurables were not great but still good. 

[MOSteelers56]

4 hours ago, Steeler Hitman said:

I liked Mazi Smith a lot as well, but as the bigger NG type that I like run stuffing.

I think Kris Jenkins is as good as Mazi and just about as athletic, and can probably be had in the 3rd or 4th. He’s not as big, but he’s athletic and is already as good of a run stuffer as Mazi. 

[JustPlainNasty]

7 hours ago, warfelg said:

Those guys got missed by many because of overthinking. Campbells tape read great, and his measurables were not great but still good. 

Still believe he was over drafted quite a bit. He was perhaps the best ILB last year (or the one i appreciated most) but not special vs historical standards or even vs much of the talent he was selected over. He was solid. 

[warfelg]

7 hours ago, JustPlainNasty said:

Still believe he was over drafted quite a bit. He was perhaps the best ILB last year (or the one i appreciated most) but not special vs historical standards or even vs much of the talent he was selected over. He was solid. 

Agreed he was overdrafted. But some people dropped him to the late 3rd/4th due to the combine. They let it massively override his tape. 
 

I thought of two players who fit well to the thought of how I was explained to use the two. Kyle Hamilton and Jesse Bates. Hamilton had some really good tape, but didn’t have a great combine. Bates had decent tape, and a really good combine. 

When you look at Hamiltons tape you see a guy at FS who was asked to play downhill. Yes he made plays deep, but when you really look at his deep plays it was calls of trail technique where Kyle should be over the top more. When you grade out the QB and WR involved they weren’t great. So he has the bad combine and you go back and look at plays like that. What happened? Well the two times he made a play on the ball are highlights. But there’s three more against highly graded QB/WRs that he didn’t make. And you start to see he’s a box safety with some space ability. 

Bates on the flip side at tape that screamed 3rd rounder. But then in his combine he moved well, showed solid hands, and long speed. So you look at the college tape and what the heck happened? WF played him a lot in the run. Asked him to come up in run support a lot. Asked him to man cover TEs. So you look for instances where he did his best role of deep safety and it’s good. Lamar’s worst passing game his Heisman year was against Wake. They had Bates in single high all game. Watson had two bad games that year but the arguable worse was Wake, and there’s Bates in single high. 

Long story short - good drafting teams use that information well. Bad drafting teams tend to put too much stock in one or the other. 

Edited February 12 by warfelg