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Lunatics Super Bowl Mock: 1.1 Overall Edition


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12 hours ago, dafreak said:

How does Fields not bring a 1st round pick? I don't see how you trade him for anything less then that.

Bears can take less than a 1st for Fields if they are planning to keep pick #1 and draft a QB. Perhaps another team will offer a 1st for Fields. That would likely take multiple teams bidding for him though. There may be more supply than demand for QBs this offseason so it's not clear who the suitors are for Justin.

 

A team trading for JF1 will be able to exercise his 5th year option but will have to make the call before seeing him workout or being able to coach him in their scheme. So they basically have to decide on it before making the trade. Fields is an elite athlete with great physical tools. He's a model citizen with good leadership skills. But he makes a lot of bad reads and turns the ball over too much. So teams have to weigh all that and compare him to their other options. 

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4 hours ago, dafreak said:

Fields is a high upside NFL starting caliber QB worthy of a 1. There has to be GM's out there that think he got a bad shake in Chicago. He is 26 years old with huge upside. Matt Freaking Ryan was traded for a 3rd in 2022, Sam Darnold for a 2, 4 and 6 in 2021 and Deshawn Watson for 3 1sts, a 3 and 2 4ths. In 2019 Josh Rosen commanded a 2 and a 5 and in 2016 Sam Bradford brought a 1 and a 4. While understanding the contract implications another team would have to deal with, if I am the Bears I am not letting him go for anything less then a 1. If put in the right situation the upside with Fields makes him much more valuable then a second tier first round rookie QB.

Additionally, the consensus seems to be that if the Bears didn't have a top 5 pick that drafting a QB wouldn't really even be a discussion. The discussion would be if should Fields be extended now. 

Matt Ryan was a former MVP who was 36 and even his last year prior to the trade was a better passing year than any Fields has had. He was also more durable than Fields even in his 30s. The Darnold and Rosen trades were laughable then so if you're using that as a comp you aren't saying Fields is actually worth a 1st, just that some GM screws up bad enough to overvalue him. That is a possibility, but I'd be shocked to see a competent franchise even negotiate if the first was mandatory.

Watson played better than Fields ever has and it isn't even close, he's just someone most teams wouldn't want.

I don't believe anything about what media says the Bears will do right now. It's lying season and I'd bet Halas Hall is the origin of rumors from all sides. If they would actually be talking of extending Fields now then Poles would really prove he's out of his depth. A guy that can't stay healthy or pass consistently isn't worth extending because he throws up a handful of highlight plays a game.

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On 2/17/2024 at 12:00 PM, Sugashane said:

Matt Ryan was a former MVP who was 36 and even his last year prior to the trade was a better passing year than any Fields has had. He was also more durable than Fields even in his 30s. The Darnold and Rosen trades were laughable then so if you're using that as a comp you aren't saying Fields is actually worth a 1st, just that some GM screws up bad enough to overvalue him. That is a possibility, but I'd be shocked to see a competent franchise even negotiate if the first was mandatory.

Watson played better than Fields ever has and it isn't even close, he's just someone most teams wouldn't want.

I don't believe anything about what media says the Bears will do right now. It's lying season and I'd bet Halas Hall is the origin of rumors from all sides. If they would actually be talking of extending Fields now then Poles would really prove he's out of his depth. A guy that can't stay healthy or pass consistently isn't worth extending because he throws up a handful of highlight plays a game.

 

"Fields commands a late first round pick"...Let's hope...

 

Edited by dafreak
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58 minutes ago, dafreak said:

 

"Fields commands a late first round pick"...Let's hope...

 

Picks 21-32:

MIA

PHI

HOU 

DAL

GB

TB

AZ

BUF

DET

BAL

SF

KC

Who in there is trading for Fields? Outside of TB (if they don’t retain Mayfield), none of those teams is even in the market for a QB. 

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54 minutes ago, dafreak said:

Fields was given a raw deal here, he still has a ton of upside in the right situation. I would not be shocked at all.

I love Fields and agree, but given what seems to be a buyers market for QBs (with lots of QBs drafted high and lots of FA guys moving around) a first round pick would leave me stunned. I honestly thought a couple of 3rds of 4ths was most likely.  A 2 and something was recently bandied about and would be very good. A first would be bonkers.  AS much as I like him he's never put up good numbers for a season, never played a full season, and is a guy you have to pay right away. 

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11 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Who in there is trading for Fields? Outside of TB (if they don’t retain Mayfield), none of those teams is even in the market for a QB. 

This is where the talking heads and reality rarely ever meet.

Its way more likely that when people are telling these guys things, they are saying Fields might return the equivalent of a late first round pick. 

That only has to reach like 600 points on the Trade Value Chart, which fun fact since it’s in this Mock, the deal I outline here with the Falcons actually hits that mark assuming they would pick up Fields 5YO

ATL sends: Pick 74 (220), Pick 79 (195), Conditional 2025 4th (~62, but a 3rd with the 5YO ~185), Conditional 2026 7th. 

With the most likely scenario of the 5YO and it staying as a 7th in 2026, that would be about 600 points on the TVC, making it “equal” to the late First Rounders (#31 is 600 points) so technically a “late” First

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4 minutes ago, dafreak said:

How about this?

 

 

That’s just basically the Carolina package from last year, lazy writing

It might actually be less with Herbert going back the other way. It would take way more for the Falcons to come up for #1

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29 minutes ago, dafreak said:

 

All because he follows a few Falcons players on Instagram and people just figured that out. He and Pitts share an agent and I’m pretty sure work out together in the offseason, but sure why not lol.

ATL and PIT always made the most sense for him once LV hired Getsy. That it took so long for the betting market to get there is just lack of research. 

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On 2/20/2024 at 8:23 PM, Sugashane said:

I'd pass. Making a major QB gap to fill and eliminating any certainty for the prospect(s) you may want? Nah.

That's probably a reasonable deal for both sides. But the Falcons may well want to hang on to Bijan and trade up to 3 for Daniels instead of going all the way up to 1 for Williams. 

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