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Lunatics Super Bowl Mock: 1.1 Overall Edition


StLunatic88

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As I promised, Im looking at all the angles. I am well aware of what the "buzz" around the Senior Bowl and the most recent tweet from Schefter (which followed the other one that sirs the pot) that they all think that decisions have been made, Ill just say i dont believe thats the case. 

Now, I am NOT saying that we're keeping Justin, Im saying what Ive heard is they are doing a TON of research and there has been no decision at this point. That they all understand the value of this #1 Overall, and what making the pick or trading it away means. No one is going into this lightly, and there are some big time questions to answer from both sides. Im just saying, dont trust any report saying that a decision has been made. There is a reason that everything said has been "the feeling around the league", its because the Bears have closed ranks until a decision is eventually made

TRADE: Justin Fields QB - to the Atlanta Falcons - $3.23m

  • For 2024 Picks #74 + #79 + *2025 4th Rounder + *2026 7th Rounder

I know alot of you are getting very excited about whispers of Multiple Top 50 picks, and 1st rounders in return for the QB that we are shipping out because he isnt a Franchise QB. Ill just say, Ill believe it when I see it. I was wrong about how much we got for #1 last year, but that was for a team getting what they believed was a fresh Rookie Franchise QB. This is a very different situation. I believe this will be a pretty complicated trade, because of the contract possibilities as well as the Talent that Fields still represents. So the Falcons get the shot at their Franchise QB, and the return could be very good, but also could turn massive if Fields is still what most of the players in the League believe he is. So it starts as aa pair of 3rds this year (both Top 80 picks) and then two highly conditional picks in the following seasons. The 4th Rounder in 2025 has many possibilities, and could be as high as a 1st. Its a 4th no matter what, but if they pickup his 5YO it immediately becomes a 3rd (so its almost assuredly at least 3 3rd round picks), and if they make the playoffs it becomes a 2nd and if they make a Super Bowl it becomes a 1st. It sounds alittle wild, but if this move gets the Falcons back to the Super Bowl they would gladly hand over the 31/32 pick in 2025. Then the 2026 pick is there as a 7th so it can be the final conditional piece, that really is there incase Fields is their guy for the long term. If he is on the roster (or Franchise Tagged) to open the 2026 league year, then this converts to another day two pick (Id say 2nd)

 

Roster Moves: Cuts = $29.4m in additional Cap Space

  • Eddie Jackson FS - $12.56m
  • Cody Whitehair C - $9.15m
  • Travis Homer RB - $1.89m
  • Khari Blasingame FB - $1.6m
  • Trenton Gill P - $966k

I think we are all in pretty much agreement on who we need to move on from. I understand most will say wait on Gill, and that is likely what will happen, but I am so over him at this point. I honestly think he was a major factor in at least 2 losses this season. The rest are either no where near wort their contract, or dont really fit the scheme anymore.

Roster Moves: Jaylon Johnson - Franchise Tag $18.8m

This is just going to happen at this point, theres no way around it right now, as he is no longer the priority, the QB decision is. Hes going to be a Bear for 2024 at the very least, and I think he will get one of the Bigger CB contracts in the league. Honestly at this point, just let Sneed set the market for the year and negotiate off of that after the Draft.

Roster Moves: D.J. Moore - Extension $5m (Addition Cap)

I am going to harp on this until we do it. I am now thinking though, that they may be waiting until after they make the QB decision, because if we Trade Fields, Moore will be the most pissed off. And this may be a way to ease the tension, with a new contract, specifically a bunch of new guaranteed dollars.

Roster Moves: Re-Sign ~ $5m Cap Hit

  • Mercedes Lewis - TE
  • Equanimeous St. Brown - WR
  • Josh Blackwell - CB (ERFA)
  • Patrick Scales - LS

I said it on a few other's Mocks, there just isnt much talent on this roster headed to Free Agency that I want back. These guys are mostly veteran leaders who honestly might not even make it on the 53-man, but you want them around the team as much as possible.

 

Free Agency: ~$54.73 in Available Cap Space

Saquon Barkley RB - 4y $63m [$23m SB/$38m G] {$12m '24 Cap}

  • Yes, Im going for it. If we have a Rookie QB, we need to rely more on the Running Game more than we already anticipate that we will. And if were making a move for a game changer at RB, go get the best one you can. With that Rookie QB, we have the Cap Space in the backfield to do this. I know I dont need to sell you all on Saquon, he's amazing, and while hes going o break down eventually, Im willing to make the bet that he has atleast 3 great years left in him. This deal puts him just behind McCaffery, and with the way hat the market treats RBs, plus his injury history, that feels like a fair contract for him. We also lure him with the Guaranteed dollars over juicing the last 2 years to make it look nice. This year will be fun having Herbert Spelling Barkley, but Roschon may as well get his QB reps in, because his RB reps will be Limited. But he could be a great 1-2 punch with him in '25/'26. Major splash out the gate, and completely changes what we need the QB to do as a Rookie. Does put a whole lot more pressure on the OL though.

Tyler Biadasz OC - 3y $35m [$12m SB/$20m G] {$8m '24 Cap}

  • Speaking of; I do believe Evan Brown is the most likely Center answer we will be going with, and he is good/reliable and versatile in this system. But Biadasz is my guy, and has been since his draft year. Adding him makes me never worry about that position for a while. I do think getting a good center will absolutely raise the level of the entire OL, but I also do think theres a chance we then start to realize how average some of the other guys are. It was easy to go "they played well for having a bad Center" but I think there are more individual issues for each of the Lineman that got a free pass this past season. Hope this can be enough to be a solid OL (its not going to be game changing) and we can upgrade in the next few years. Really need to see another step from Braxton especially, hes good enough, but thats not enough for me at my Tackle spots.

Van Jefferson WR - 2y $9m [$2m SB/$4m G] {$3m '24 Cap}

  • I was alittle out on this idea a few weeks ago, as I do think Van has a cap to him that most think he has more potential than that. I will say the ATL stint has cooled most on him now, so I do think he will need to prove himself now if he wants one more shot at that second tier WR money. And getting back into the offense where he looked best might be the secret stuff to get there. To me this move is to add some reliable weapons, to make sure that Waldron's offense runs as it should. Im not going to come in here at tell you that he is going to break out for a 1000 yard year, I dont think we are going to be running that type of offense for the entirety of 2024 with a Rookie QB. But having him and a handful more of reliable veterans will let DJ shine even more when hes not the only weapon in the combination.

Noah Fant TE- 2y $11m [$3m SB/$6m G] {$4m '24 Cap}

  • I know AZ (I think) had us grabbing the other Seattle TE, but he is their actual draft pick, and is ascending. Feels like they will try to keep him. Where as Fant was the throw in for Russ, and most feel like he has stagnated. Its a very similar signing to Tonyan, hopefully hes more impactful. Again, Im not selling this as some unearthed diamond in the rough here (Id probably rather have Parkinson if were being honest) but he makes a very nice #2 TE, and he is another gu that can help with the reliability in this Waldron Offense. Both these deals are pretty team friendly in year 1, with a nice kick in year 2 if they are a big part of the offense, but we can get out pretty easily if they are JAG.

Donovan Peoples-Jones WR - 1y $2.5m [$500k SB] {$2.5m '24 Cap}

  • I had DPJ in my earliest mock, and Im bringing him back here. As Ive said previous, its fun to give us a whole bunch of #1s, but in reality we just need to rise the floor of the WR room. Peoples-Jones should have broken out in Cleveland, he was on the verge, and then it just didnt happen. For me, getting him is the 53-man replacement for ESB as hes a tough blocker. But he is also a track speedster and should be a Deep Threat, who also provides some PR value as well. Again, not flashy, but solid value who still has some potential to break out.

Sean Mannion QB - 1y $1.25m [$50k SB] {$1.25m '24 Cap}

  • Everyone is looking into QBs to help out with the system who can also be a real backup. I just dont think that guy is out there. This '24 team will be going as far as the Rookie QB takes us, and I dont think you can have anyone who this fickle fan base can ever call for to replace him. You just have t keep him out there to sink or swim while they learn. I cant believe Im saying it, but I think its Bagent for one more season, becaue he has some of that gusto that can atleast keep you in a game if he has to be an injury replacement, but he wont ever threaten the rookie. But thats also why we bring in Mannion, who was barely a backup when he was on th 53-man with the Rams, and will will only really be a P-Squad/Emergency QB here. But he has spend basically his entire career in this exact system, so he is here to be another teacher, and hopefully speed up the process of the Rookie.

AJ Epenesa ED - 2y $17m [$8m SB/$10m G] {$5m '24 Cap}

  • We've all said it, he just screams like an obvious pickup for the Bears. A position of need with Snaps to give for a guy who has flashed but not broken out. Its the exact type of chances we should be taking in Free Agency. Washington coming in really only strengthens this connection even more. If AJ ends up elsewhere on something other than a major contract, it would speak volumes from his most recent/most direct coach.

Micah Hyde DB - 1y $5m [$3m SB] {$5m '24 Cap}

  • Another Bills Defense connection here, which would have been a massive signing 3/4 years ago, but is in a much different vein now. Hyde is still a solid player, probably a bit better than who he is replacing in Ejax, but on a much more palatable contract. He also brings in a great veteran presence to a secondary that is about to be extremely young with Brisker/Gordon being the second most Senior to a guy who might be playing on a Franchise Tag all year. We pay a small premium to get him here over just ring chasing, but he can see how good this D is going to be and can be one of the last pieces paired with a Rookie who will come along through the season.

DaQuan Jones DL - 2y $15m [$5m SB/$10m G] {$6m '24 Cap}

  • Not exactly the DT I expected to be adding when I started this, another Run Stuffer isnt exactly needed, but he would be a real nasty pair with Billings in this rotation. Its an upgrade on Jones for not that much more, and he was a massive boon for the Bills defense. Feels like a guy EW might want to bring along. This could also allow Pickens to be more of the 3-Tech that he clearly wants to be (although I think he is still going to be playing both)

Matt Araiza P - 3y $8m [$m SB/$m G] {$1.5m '24 Cap}

  • Lets just do it, be the team to get the discount on the Punt God. He seems pretty cleared at this point and we need  Punter soooo badly. His contract is going to be odd, but Im sure we will want to basically have the rest of a Rookie Contract for him, but it will be more expensive because  bunch of teams will want him. 

 

 

2024 NFL Draft

1.1 Caleb Williams QB Southern Cal

  • If we are staying at #1, Williams is the pick. I still have alot of questions about CW (most I personally wont get answers to) from his size to his ability to be a leader and handle the heat of the NFL. But also, every time I put on his Utah tapes I come away with the same questions/worries that many complain about with Fields. That is one of the best Defenses he has faced in his entire college career, and he looks pretty pedestrian through most of it. Anyone can have a bad game, but when I see most of what people point out about his game, its against Bad Defenses. Im far from convinced that he is a "Can Not Pass Up" prospect, but its a major option so lets see what this offseason brings

1.9 TRADE with Cincinnati for #18+#49+#175+'24 5th

  • I went through a Sim for this one, and While I do expect one of the Weapons or OTs would be available, this time they were all gone, and this was the most appealing deal on the table. We get a 2nd rounder that we desperately need as well as a few 5ths that will likely be trade fodder for other moves.

1.18 Jared Verse ED Florida State

  • I was honestly shocked that Verse would still be available, but he was here and we would have to jump on that talent to pair up with Sweat on the DL. Ive been wanting Verse on this Defense since we thought we were getting a pair of Too 5 picks, so this was a no brainer to me. I think come draft time, the league will value his explosion/flexibility/strength too much for him to Fall out of the Top 15, but if we could pull this off it would be huge

2.36 TRADE with Washington #36+#101 for #49+#75+CIN '24 5th

  • We added some extra picks, so we can go get the guys we need to. And To me, there is no more important guy than this, even though some of you have disagreed. nd if we cn make this deal without losing the Number of Picks in '24 its even better

2.36 Ladd McConkey WR Georgia

  • Yes, Im still going for him AND Im trading up for him. Ladd is a guy who can just pick apart defenses and do it from any alignment on any route against any coverage. He made everyone at the Senior Bowl look silly, and had everyone trying their hardest to not invoke Cooper Kupp. Thats the type of Receiver that can make everything so much easier for a Rookie QB. Sign me up.

3.74 Cole Bishop DB Utah

  • To me Bishop can be a FS, but fits even better in a scheme that we are running were the Safeties have to be interchangeable. He does his best work in the box for sure, but I think he has everything needed to cover deeper down the field, and has the instincts and leadership to run things from the Secondary.  I may be wrong here on the deep Safety stuff, but at the worst he is a contributor to the Secondary, especially with how often Brisker seems to injure himself.

3.79. Braden Fiske DL Florida State

  • I wasnt necessarily looking for a guy like Fiske, but after watching alot of FSU stuff for Verse, he does pop. And then his week in Mobile only confirmed those things. That showing also limited the concerns you immediately have on him, size/length at the next level. He isnt an obvious fit as he isnt built like a freak, but his motor and toughness combined with his quickness and leverage make him a pain in the butt for IOL. If the length doesnt hinder him (and it didnt at the Senior Bowl) he could be a steal on Day 2.

3.101 Brendan Rice WR Southern Cal

  • I said this the other day on here, but if we go with Williams and these two have a good relationship, we should absolutely make sure we take him. He got some buzz early in Mobile, but was kind of just solid the rest of the week, but the QB play really hurt alot of these guys, especially ones like Rice who work best in tight spaces. He has the size and hands and instincts that should always keep him useful in the NFL, with some long speed and potential to be a stud (possibly Budget DK) 

4.110 Beaux Limmer OL Arkansas

  • Some may have seen the one rep at he Senior Bowl where T-Sweat bent Limmer backward, and aloit of arm chair scouts made their entire determination on both guys from that one rep. When in Reality, Beaux held his own against that same Top DL in every other rep, and even handled him in some. That rep is encompassing of the things that Limmer still needs to correct (some more strength but nothing crazy, too high too quick, and not always resetting) but he did alot of that well most of the week. He has the attitude and skills this group loves and when he gets taught, especially at Center, he could be a monster. If not, he should be a solid backup at all the Interior spots in this scheme.

4.122 Jared Wiley TE Texas Christian

  • MadMike beat me to Wiley in his mock, but I really like the traits here, and he would be a great 3rd TE off the bat in my eyes. Too many are trying to compare him to guys like LaPorta, hes not there, atleast not yet. He has the measurables you like, a nice and reliable catch radius, and straight line speed to beat guys in the seam. But the thing he doesnt currently have, is anything after the catch is it isnt a quick screen. He doesnt catch, gather, and then move well, but not every TE is going to be a YAC guy. The spot I like that not all do is his blocking. I think he blocks real well in Pass Pro, and does well enough in the run game to be in good position and shield guys off, he just needs to get some more functional strength and refine the technique and e could be nasty there.

5.142 Zak Zinter OL Michigan

  • Honestly didnt have anyone I loved here at this pick, so I went with more of taking value where we can find it. Some have Zinter going a round or two higher, and without the Injury Id agree, but hes not going to be able to workout at all for teams before the draft, and they arent going to just take his word on it. Someone might take that chance earlier, but if he is around anytime on Day 3, Id take the risk, not before though. (it wasnt your standard injury)

5.175 Eric Watts DL Connecticut

  • Im not exactrly sure how I came across Watts, but man I have really fallen for this dude. Not too many pay attention to UConn, but he catches your eye pretty quickly. Its a purely upside pick here, but with the length+power we love and his ability to line up all over the place he is very intriguing. He plays purely on talent and instinct, so if you are able to teach him any type of rush repertoire and get him to do something other than just effort against the run, he could be a nice complimentary piece

 

2024 Bears Roster

QB: C. Williams - T.Bagent (S.Mannion)

RB: S. Barkley - K. Herbert - R. Johnson

WR: D. Moore - T. Scott

WR:  L. McConkey - D. Peoples-Jones

WR:  V. Jefferson - B. Rice

TE: C. Kmet - N. Fant - J.Wiley - M. Lewis

LT: B. Jones

LG: T. Jenkins - Z. Zinter

OC: T. Biadasz - B. Limmer

RG: N. Davis

RT: D. Wright - L. Borom

 

ST: K. Santos - M. Araiza - P. Scales

 

DE: M.Sweat - A. Epenesa - E. Watts

DT: G. Dexter - Z. Pickens - B. Fiske

NT: A. Billings - D. Jones

DE: D. Walker - J. Verse

LB: T. Edwards - N. Sewell

LB: T. Edmunds 

LB: J. Sanborn

CB: J. Johnson - T. Smith 

S: J. Brisker - Q. Johnson

S: M. Hyde - C. Bishop

CB: T. tevenson - K. Gordon - J. Blackwell

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i **** with it. i do love the idea of pairing saquon with CW, would definitely help ease up the pressure he would get. both herbert and rojo are the perfect spell backs for it. rojo becomes the (other) adrian peterson on this team - capable running the offense and a core 4 STer. 

i like the idea of using our other 2nd rounder to grab a DE opposite Sweat. we really do need another solid edge guy, and grabbing one that can be cost controlled for the next 5 years while sweat is on his extension is gonna be huge. i think that sets us up to go WR/LT/CB (if no long term JJ deal) with our first next season

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I like it but I think we need a little more veteran at WR if we’re not going WR at 9 (or 18 after the trade). I gave us Van in my mock too and considered DPJ as well, but I don’t think either is a WR2. I think Ladd may be a WR2 eventually but I don't think he walks in ready for that role right away. If you see differently re: Ladd then I get it though. 

I’m a big Biadasz fan - he’s my top C but the local guys don’t seem to mention him at all when they talk about FA centers, and he didn’t make any of the early national “top FA” lists that I remember which surprised me. Micah Hyde is a stop gap vet that I like as well. I like Fant and he makes a great deal of sense for us IMO but I think he’ll get more than that on the market. His numbers aren’t huge but he’s a reliable pass catcher with good speed, is only 27 and has only missed 1 game in 5 years. He should have multiple suitors where he can be TE1 IMO.

Verse is my DE1 in this draft. I love his game especially across from that of Sweat. If we go DE in round 1 he’s my guy.

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I've said for a while QB and HB should be grouped together when looking at cap implications, because 99% of the plays go through one of their hands. So I'm still down with Saquan.

Love Epenesa, Jones and Van Jefferson, and the Punt God is definitely needed in Chicago. And the draft is one I'd be down with for sure. I'm lower on Rice than most but he definitely has traits that could make him a good pro.

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23 hours ago, HuskieBear said:

and grabbing one that can be cost controlled for the next 5 years while sweat is on his extension is gonna be huge.

It would be massive to pair two DEs, one established and the other on a rookie deal. Its almost like having a great player on a Rookie Deal + 5YO is helpful in ANY of the premium positions.

(thats not calling you out, just pointing out how that narrative is severely overblown)

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2 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Its almost like having a great player on a Rookie Deal + 5YO is helpful in ANY of the premium positions.

Exactly. Everyone talks about it at QB, but it doesn’t HAVE to be QB. If we go LT at 9 with Alt or Fashanu we’d have both OTs locked in at like $9M combined/year for the next 3 years. Assuming both are solid starters or better, that’s like stealing. 

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2 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

It would be massive to pair two DEs, one established and the other on a rookie deal. Its almost like having a great player on a Rookie Deal + 5YO is helpful in ANY of the premium positions.

(thats not calling you out, just pointing out how that narrative is severely overblown)

i think it's because at any other position, the absolute high end is $30M for the #1 guy at the position. for QB, that's less than the starting number for an average starter these days. 

but yes, having good players on rookie deals is the dream - it's mostly how the chiefs have survived (rice/humphry/smith/gay/bolton/mcduffie/karlaftis/pacheco/snead). the 49ers ln the other hand have like, 7+ guys making $20M+ which is going to catch up with them fast

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FWIW, Manion retired and joined the GB coaching staff.

Bengals won't trade up, we have too many holes to fill. It would be a dream if Bowers fell to 18 but we aren't going to trade up for him. Unless you want to trade pick 9 for Tee Higgins, I doubt there is any trading between the teams.

Araiza won't be as expensive as you have him. He's available today for any team to sign. Someone will sign him to a 4 year deal for minimum salaries, maybe with a few incentives and a modest signing bonus, maybe $100K. 

Tyler Boyd might be a good FA target for the Bears with a rookie QB. He'll probably cost about 8-9 mil per year but can play inside or out and is a reliable safety blanket. 

Biadasz tends to get knocked backward too often. He plays between Zack Martin and Tyler Smith so the Cowboys can cover for him but not sure if the Bears can do that. I'd look at Andre James or to the draft for the answer at center. If you do trade down from 9, JPJ becomes an option. 

Bears can probably get a 2nd rounder for Fields. A team trading for him will make him their starter and that's worth a 2nd rounder now plus a 2025 conditional pick based on how he does. 

 

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6 hours ago, sparky151 said:

Araiza won't be as expensive as you have him. He's available today for any team to sign. Someone will sign him to a 4 year deal for minimum salaries, maybe with a few incentives and a modest signing bonus, maybe $100K.

Ariaza may sign for the minimum for 2024 somewhere, but the likelihood he takes the minimum for 4 years when he doesn’t have to do so like when he’s on a draft slotted, CBA-dictated deal is incredibly low. If there is a single player in the league not on a rookie draft pick deal making the minimum on a 4-year deal I’ll be shocked. 

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Ok, a 3 year deal then. Araiza has no vested seasons so if he only signed a 1 year deal, he'd be an ERFA for years 2 and 3. He'd then be an RFA but probably not likely to be tendered at anything more than his original draft round (6th rounder if I remember right). There were a couple of other punters drafted ahead of him based on football skills, apart from the legal stuff that came up later. 

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42 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Ok, a 3 year deal then. Araiza has no vested seasons so if he only signed a 1 year deal, he'd be an ERFA for years 2 and 3. He'd then be an RFA but probably not likely to be tendered at anything more than his original draft round (6th rounder if I remember right). There were a couple of other punters drafted ahead of him based on football skills, apart from the legal stuff that came up later. 

I assumed that as ERFA players were subject to the same contract tiers as traditional RFAs but on looking at it further I see that that’s not the case and that tendered ERFAs can only get the minimum. Hey - I learned something today. 👍👍

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ERFAs have to take what the team offers. Teams can offer more than the bare minimum but they don't have to. So it's a favor to the player when they do so. 

Anyway, Araiza isn't in a position to ask for a lot. A team may give him some NLTBE incentives for being named all-pro or something like that. 

 

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On 2/13/2024 at 3:13 PM, sparky151 said:

Bears can probably get a 2nd rounder for Fields. A team trading for him will make him their starter and that's worth a 2nd rounder now plus a 2025 conditional pick based on how he does. 

How does Fields not bring a 1st round pick? I don't see how you trade him for anything less then that.

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2 hours ago, dafreak said:

How does Fields not bring a 1st round pick? I don't see how you trade him for anything less then that.

I mean as a rookie I'd have happily drafted him (and did in real time),  but going into the 4th year of his contract he has never stayed healthy for an entire season and has never even been able to throw 400 times in a season.  He's just too erratic of a passer and injury prone for me to spend a first if I was trying to trade for him. 

I mean if you're the GM for a team would you say Fields is better than any prospect you're able to draft in the first? If take the 4-5 years and have faith I could develop a young guy rather than 1-2 that I could fix the BS Chicago has instilled into him. 

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7 hours ago, Sugashane said:

I mean as a rookie I'd have happily drafted him (and did in real time),  but going into the 4th year of his contract he has never stayed healthy for an entire season and has never even been able to throw 400 times in a season.  He's just too erratic of a passer and injury prone for me to spend a first if I was trying to trade for him. 

I mean if you're the GM for a team would you say Fields is better than any prospect you're able to draft in the first? If take the 4-5 years and have faith I could develop a young guy rather than 1-2 that I could fix the BS Chicago has instilled into him. 

Fields is a high upside NFL starting caliber QB worthy of a 1. There has to be GM's out there that think he got a bad shake in Chicago. He is 26 years old with huge upside. Matt Freaking Ryan was traded for a 3rd in 2022, Sam Darnold for a 2, 4 and 6 in 2021 and Deshawn Watson for 3 1sts, a 3 and 2 4ths. In 2019 Josh Rosen commanded a 2 and a 5 and in 2016 Sam Bradford brought a 1 and a 4. While understanding the contract implications another team would have to deal with, if I am the Bears I am not letting him go for anything less then a 1. If put in the right situation the upside with Fields makes him much more valuable then a second tier first round rookie QB.

Additionally, the consensus seems to be that if the Bears didn't have a top 5 pick that drafting a QB wouldn't really even be a discussion. The discussion would be if should Fields be extended now. 

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