2024 49ers offseason

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

6 hours ago, Forge said:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-quarterback-rankings-all-32-starters-2024-nfl-season

Trevor sikkema QB rankings 

 

13. BROCK PURDY, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

I’m fairly comfortable with Purdy's ranking on this list. His consistent success — albeit in a very talented offense — over the past two years should not go unrecognized. His 78.3% adjusted completion rate was a top-five number in 2023, which speaks to his timing and accuracy. And his 5.4% big-time throw percentage shows that, even with below-average arm talent, he is a good enough anticipator to make things happen.

Purdy is also a very confident player and pushes the ball, which battles the “game manager” label he often gets; he’s not just a dink-and-dunk passer. Does he have the athletic talent of some other players? No, but he’s damn good at his job, regardless.

Why isn't Purdy Athletic again?!  He looks like he is built like a tiny brick wall and he has really quick feet.  He can get yards and move the chains as well as most QB's.   He is better at getting yards with his legs than Alex Smith, and Alex Smith was considered by the pundits to be highly athletic.

[WhyAmIHere]

30 minutes ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

Why isn't Purdy Athletic again?!  He looks like he is built like a tiny brick wall and he has really quick feet.  He can get yards and move the chains as well as most QB's.   He is better at getting yards with his legs than Alex Smith, and Alex Smith was considered by the pundits to be highly athletic.

Let them underestimate this guy, I'm good with it.  I underestimated him and I found out real fast what he's about. 

[Forge]

25 minutes ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

Why isn't Purdy Athletic again?!  He looks like he is built like a tiny brick wall and he has really quick feet.  He can get yards and move the chains as well as most QB's.   He is better at getting yards with his legs than Alex Smith, and Alex Smith was considered by the pundits to be highly athletic.

I would disagree with that. Smith had some big time rushing numbers in KC for a couple of years when they cut him lose in that regard. 

From a pure athletic profile, Smith just had a more wiggle to him when moving imo. Just a little more fluid

 

[Forge]

2 minutes ago, WhyAmIHere said:

Let them underestimate this guy, I'm good with it.  I underestimated him and I found out real fast what he's about. 

He has the best situation in football. And it's a uniquely good one, tbh. Nobody is going to give him full credit for yeeeeeears. Just not going to happen any time soon. I've just accepted that and I'm okay with it. I understand why, at least. Though it's going to be funny when Caleb Williams is great and nobody talks about his situation when all I've heard this off season is about how he is going into the best situation for a rookie QB in a long time. 

I have no problem with sikkema's ranking for the most part. Purdy is a hard eval. I get it. There were a couple of guys higher that I probably would have had in the same tier as opposed to a higher one (Jalen hurts, for example), but minor quibbles. 

 

[49erurtaza]

Nepotism woot woot!!! I'm not surprised with this promotion. Klay started coaching with the 49ers on defense moved to offense been with the QB room for a few seasons. Makes sense to promote him over Mick Lombardi who is just a senior assistant coach coming from the Raiders from the OC role.

[WhyAmIHere]

I've learned to give Kyle the benefit of the doubt when it comes to hiring. His only big misstep was Wilks and that seemed like a square peg round hole situation. 

[JIllg]

8 hours ago, Forge said:

He has the best situation in football. And it's a uniquely good one, tbh. Nobody is going to give him full credit for yeeeeeears. Just not going to happen any time soon. I've just accepted that and I'm okay with it. I understand why, at least. Though it's going to be funny when Caleb Williams is great and nobody talks about his situation when all I've heard this off season is about how he is going into the best situation for a rookie QB in a long time. 

I have no problem with sikkema's ranking for the most part. Purdy is a hard eval. I get it. There were a couple of guys higher that I probably would have had in the same tier as opposed to a higher one (Jalen hurts, for example), but minor quibbles. 

 

Absolutely. Brock is just a really weird evaluation. 

Like, take away the weapons (and there are a lot of them and they also add value), just having Kyle Shanahan and a functional set of tools and a rosterable NFL quarterback has been a path to from the pocket offensive success other teams would kill for. You can credit Kyle with taking Matt Ryan from a solid starting quarterback that makes your franchise relevant, but can't carry a team to playoff success to being an MVP. Jimmy G has a career 8.2! YPA because most of it has been spent playing for Shanahan and he was always near the top of the heap of EPA/Play (he was best in the NFL here with CMC before the injury) and DVOA from a clean pocket with us in spite of his obvious limitations. 

Then, you add in the weapons which are collectively among the best sets that have been assembled in this millennium when they are all available (which, admittedly, is like for a quarter of the games these days). It's like Peyton Manning's 49 TD season or the Greatest Show on Turf weapons wise. And the run blocking is very good - I think that the team was like 5th in offensive line yards. They are a real threat on the ground that has to be game planned around and draws extra run defending personnel for the weapons to shred.

So Brock has a tremendous situation from a clean pocket from which most solid players will really excel. Only, he had by far the worst offensive line among playoff QBs - he would have killed for the wide open pockets that Goff and Love were playing with as our four man pass rushes got neutered over and over again. So he gets clean pockets more rarely than any other of the quarterbacks that we'd consider really great. And it muddies his failures - all quarterbacks are pretty poopy under pressure in comparison to their regular selves. 

Lastly, Brock put up top of history numbers in just about every efficiency metric. Pick your flavor, he was awe-inspiring if you are considering him without the context from the first couple of paragraphs - heck, it's awe inspiring with the context. Even with awesome weapons, dudes don't usually do top-of-history good. Even some of the ball placement metrics that account for degree of difficulty and traditionally hate Shanahan 49ers QBs thought he was a top 5 guy last year. If he was merely very good or one of the best of the year in the efficiency column, I think that we could pretty safely say that he's just a back half starting quarterback or so. Given the information we have, he blew what we know about QBs in this system out of the water. 

So what does this mean? I dunno. Not sure that we'll ever know really, as long as Brock and Shanahan are tied together.  But, like. If he's putting up 9+ ypa every year with a low enough turnover rate, it ain't gonna matter. That's MVP caliber production even if the player would be less impressive in a lesser context and isn't the best player in a contextless environment. And if you get MVP caliber production out of your QB, you are going to contend for championships. If Brock drops back to like 8 - 8.5 ypa and/or his turnovers spike, then he's probably just a Jimmy G that got hot and had a really quality level of talent. 

But I will say, it's funny that folks say that he got carried, because this was one of the 3 cheapest offenses in the NFL last year. A GIANT chunk of that was that Purdy and the QB room were immensely cheap. A good bit was that Aiyuk was on his rookie deal. But the team was also 4th from the bottom in spending on the offensive line. We were able to carry that cheap unit on the offense in a way that some quarterbacks would not have been able to handle given their pressure to sack rates and their falloffs on pressured dropbacks. Some of the more physically gifted rookie contract quarterbacks that are being heavily lauded currently fall under this umbrella.

I think that this is a good sign that between Purdy and Shanahan, we will be able to do special things even when the QB contract is taking up more room. We'll have to get some rookie contracts on the team somewhere - Pearsall and Cowing working out would be good starts, as would Willis if he improves. Ditto Puni. We'll need to be more efficient in our spending on defense - that unit underperformed its cost last year. But I think that there's reason to believe that we'll make it if we prioritize smartly.

 

[J-ALL-DAY]

14 hours ago, Forge said:

Interesting that Thomas was the starter opposite Lenoir today. Feliciano acted as Center. 
 

Would not make too much of this. Thomas has more experience in the system and as we get to camp, they will start to change the starters and back ups. What was interesting to me though was Sorenson specifically mentioned Womack in the slot and how he was looking good. I had figured they were done with Womack in the slot because he was not the best of tacklers but he's a damn good cover corner on the inside. I would not give up on him just yet. He can play on the outside but mainly off ball. I just knew DJ Reed was going to be a stud and I had similar thoughts when we drafted Womack and he does good every training camp but never gets on the field....Not all that dissimilar to DJ Reed's time here. 

Edited May 22 by J-ALL-DAY

[y2lamanaki]

9 hours ago, Forge said:

Though it's going to be funny when Caleb Williams is great and nobody talks about his situation when all I've heard this off season is about how he is going into the best situation for a rookie QB in a long time. 

Best probably since 2021 and Trey Lance, I'd say. Though Bears fans might want to keep going back through time from there...

[JIllg]

6 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

Best probably since 2021 and Trey Lance, I'd say. Though Bears fans might want to keep going back through time from there...

As for guys that were drafted and intended to play (so Patrick Mahomes doesn't count, and prolly Lance) there was Andy Dalton? But he was a third rounder. Jay Cutler? Got to go to an aging but still really talented Broncos team that made the conference title game, although he only started later in the season. Joe Flacco had a really good setup, but mostly on defense. Even 2004 Big Ben didn't have all of the tools that Caleb might have. Caleb also a proven quality OC at the helm. Yeah, he might have the fewest reasons to fail to score points as a rookie we've seen this century from the first round pick guys. Usually if the setup was as good as Caleb is theoretically going into, the previous guy was able to do enough with it to keep his job, lol. And usually there isn't the addition of another top 10 pick to the mix.

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

10 hours ago, Forge said:

I would disagree with that. Smith had some big time rushing numbers in KC for a couple of years when they cut him lose in that regard. 

From a pure athletic profile, Smith just had a more wiggle to him when moving imo. Just a little more fluid

 

Smith couldn't reposition then throw with any type of fluidity.  I know I mentioned running, but I suppose QB movement would be more accurate.  Sure, on a designed run, like a zone read, Smith's athletic traits likely give him an advantage. These running plays are less than five a game.  On almost every single passing down, Purdy has to move through his reads with his feet, reposition, and throw.   Purdy's natural feel for space helps him move the chains whereas Alex didn't have those natural instincts.  Purdy's quick foot movement are what allows his instincts to shine.

 

Purdy has significantly quicker feet than Alex.  When running combine, and measurments, and practice, and lab tests and sports science and stuff, Alex is more athletic.  All of Alex's athleticism is on paper.  Purdy's foot quickness translates directly to the football field.  

I don't think Alex had any wiggle.  He was fast, he looked just like you want a QB to look.  His arms were long.  He's tall.  I just can't think of a single Juke or "make a guy miss" moment in Alex's SF career.  Purdy makes guys miss every week.

Alex is an athelte at the combine, Purdy is an athlete on Sunday.  It goes back to a point I talk about from time to time : QB athleticism is a collection of things that don't really matter. 

[WhyAmIHere]

I was gonna say, Alex was definitely faster. But Purdy has much more initial burst and lateral quickness, especially in the pocket. 

[Forge]

10 minutes ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

Smith couldn't reposition then throw with any type of fluidity.  I know I mentioned running, but I suppose QB movement would be more accurate.  Sure, on a designed run, like a zone read, Smith's athletic traits likely give him an advantage. These running plays are less than five a game.  On almost every single passing down, Purdy has to move through his reads with his feet, reposition, and throw.   Purdy's natural feel for space helps him move the chains whereas Alex didn't have those natural instincts.  Purdy's quick foot movement are what allows his instincts to shine.

 

Purdy has significantly quicker feet than Alex.  When running combine, and measurments, and practice, and lab tests and sports science and stuff, Alex is more athletic.  All of Alex's athleticism is on paper.  Purdy's foot quickness translates directly to the football field.  

I don't think Alex had any wiggle.  He was fast, he looked just like you want a QB to look.  His arms were long.  He's tall.  I just can't think of a single Juke or "make a guy miss" moment in Alex's SF career.  Purdy makes guys miss every week.

Alex is an athelte at the combine, Purdy is an athlete on Sunday.  It goes back to a point I talk about from time to time : QB athleticism is a collection of things that don't really matter. 

A lot of what you're describing here is not what people would generally identify as athleticism though. Understanding space, knowing when and where to run, resetting in the pocket, quick pocket feet....would feel pretty good saying that very few people consider that as "athleticism" when talking about athleticism. I think when most people speak on athleticism, it's probably the "sports science and stuff". I'd wager its often the traits thats backed by testing data. 

I think a lot of what you're talking about would generally be discussed under other headings. 

[Forge]

12 minutes ago, WhyAmIHere said:

I was gonna say, Alex was definitely faster. But Purdy has much more initial burst and lateral quickness, especially in the pocket. 

Alex probably had better long speed. Purdy pretty good with that initial giddyup.

I just think Purdy is better about making up the athletic limitations because he mentally works faster as a football player. But people don't generally consider that mental acuity which works in tandem with the athleticism as actual athleticism. 

The thing about Alex that we have to remember is that he didn't get to really take advantage of his athleticism until he was basically  into his 30s

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

33 minutes ago, Forge said:

A lot of what you're describing here is not what people would generally identify as athleticism though. Understanding space, knowing when and where to run, resetting in the pocket, quick pocket feet....would feel pretty good saying that very few people consider that as "athleticism" when talking about athleticism. I think when most people speak on athleticism, it's probably the "sports science and stuff". I'd wager its often the traits thats backed by testing data. 

I think a lot of what you're talking about would generally be discussed under other headings. 

I am saying the athleticism a QB uses is different than the athleticism people talk about.  

I look at what is useful.  Quickness is a valuable trait for a football player to have.  I consider the ability to fit through a tiny space using instincts and foot quickness an athletic trait.  Choosing where to throw is mental, but the throw itself and placing it is athletic again.  

If an athlete is doin it physically while playing their sport, that is the athleticism I care about.  Purdy's foot quickness; his ability to start, stop, and throw are super important on every single play.  ALex's 40 time mattered like three times his entire career.  Most people care about the 40 time though, so I don't dispute that.  This is also why Purdy fell to the 7th compared to Kenny Pickett.  I bet Kenny Pickett runs a nice 40, and maybe that will actually matter someday.  Purdy's unmeasurable ability to stop and take two steps before being tackled matters a lot.  If it's not athletic,  I don't know what it is. 

It's not like he uses magic, his legs are built like tanks and his lower base is highly developed.  He has elite balance because he has a very strong base.  That is the combination of strength, skill and quickness.  Some might even call it athleticism.

 

Edited May 22 by Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420