I’ve got a feelin…

[Steeler Hitman]

4 minutes ago, warfelg said:

In 2025 with Daniels, 2026 with Seumalo, but we still spent a 1st on Jones, need a C, and RT which will cost draft and or cap.

The draft gives you four to five years on a rookie deal.  There may be better and less expensive free agent options in 2025 and 2026. Players sign these huge contracts and don't get to see a lot of the money.  I would be quite happy with Jones, a first and second round RT and Center.  Easier and less expensive to find Ramon Foster in free agency than Jonathan Ogden.

I was one of the people preaching patience with Kenny early.  But Ben had Plax in his rookie year only.  He had a bad/average OL early.  But Ben also showed much more early on than Kenny has.

No doubt Ben showed more, but Ben also had more support (OL Marvel Smith, Alan Faneca, Jeff Hartings, Kendall Simmons, and Max Starks). I would take that over what we had last year every day of the week. Ward, Randel El, and Washington was not bad. They put up better stats than our guys last year. Ben also had a great defense as well. They also have the hardware on their finger and in the trophy case. I have argued that the Steelers could have done Ben better by getting a true LT.  It is common, but unfair to compare Kenny to Ben. 

Yes I am, at least signs that he can do it.  I’m not that confident in it with him.  Like, I know it was a joke, but someone posted on X “it’s 2065, and Kenny at 65 is still just waiting for OL, weapons, and an OC to develop”.

Just being objective, last year was only year two not five or ten. That's a gross over-exaggeration.  I am sure some are the same people who booed Mason in 2019 and 2021, yet cheered the loudest for Mason year six.  Everyone wants results, but no one wants to go through the process.

So again, it comes back to he needs “perfect” but even when you look at the throws where he got good protection things were off with it.

We know there is no such thing as perfect. I would love to see how the Jaguar game plays out if Dionte catches that opening pass. There are several other moments where he needed a block or opening. Some of the same things were being said about Najee and when the OL finally blocks, he looks like a #1 draft choice. I am not asking or expecting "perfect," just opportunity. I believe if given the opportunity, he will be successful. One area where Kenny is ahead of Ben is in the maturity area at the same point.  I think that will help him with the adversity.  Kind of unfair to compare everyone's strengths and weaknesses. Ben is a future HOF QB. After winning in year two, he almost put himself out of football. 

 Like, to be honest that’s where I sit with Kenny.  He needs things to happen for him rather than make things happen.

Again, so did Tom Brady in his second and third year. You have to give these guys a chance to adequately develop. I studied martial arts, so here's a great example: When I was 14, I could do every black-belt level kick. I never understood why my instructor didn't promote me. I certainly looked the part. I later learned there was a lot more to being a black belt than just being able to do pretty fancy kicks (that actually are not effective in a real fight I might add).  Lesson learned was there was also a mentality, maturity, passion, indomitable spirit, and integrity that I was not "old enough" to completely understand.

Today, I see 7,8, 9, and 10 year old's with black belts and some are even Ni Dan's (second degree). Times are different. I am sure that they can perform the kicks, punches, and techniques, but................ I wouldn't want a 9 year old backing me up in a street fight.

Same thing with the NFL, we expect these kids come in and be Joe Montana. We get lulled into false security when you have success or failure early. CJ Stroud and Brock Purdy look like the next chapter of potentially great QB's. Both have played less than three seasons. A lot of things can happen. Carolina is doing the same thing their Bryce Young who some are calling a flop because he doesn't look like Stroud. CJ Stroud would not look like CJ Stroud playing under the same conditions as Pickett and Young.

This turns into what @Dcash4 talked about with sunken cost fallacy.  Now you will create a situation where you are going to put things in place around Kenny to try to make him succeed rather than just say, “let’s do what’s best for us and if not let’s move on.”  And the issue I have is there is where the excuse making for Kenny can really continue.  

I disagree in that you are going to need an OL and improved team regardless of QB. Again, for all the Fields love, he didn't do it with the OL and receivers in Chicago. QB's need protection and weapons. You may get away with a season or two, but you end up getting your QB banged up. One reason I will argue that Big Ben is probably not still playing with Pickett sitting in the wings waiting. Ben got beat up far too much early in his career. 

So let’s say Jones is iffy at LT to start the year and we have a C that’s a rookie, and RT that’s up and down - how much longer do you need to give Kenny?  What if DJ starts dropping passes again?  GP struggles to get open?

We are kind of going  dawn the rabbit hole of "what if's."  If it is that bad the Steelers have bigger problems than Pickett. The hope is that Jones develops and they can move him LT in 2024 or 2025 at the latest. They draft or sign another veteran OT who can play well opposite Jones. They find a free agent and draft a franchise Center.  The hope is that these moves help Kenny or the next Steelers starting QB. What you just described is a perfect storm of bad.  I just don't believe it is always all good or all bad. I get what you are saying though, Sometimes you have to make your luck despite the circumstances.

I’m not even asking Kenny to “carry the team” with this.  I’m merely asking him to make routine plays without perfect execution happening.  And that’s what I don’t see.  I gave him passes on bailing the pocket in 2022 because of being a rookie, but in 2023 he had plenty of clean pockets to step into and bailed anyways.  He had plenty of times where he had to anticipate a break, and failed to and it turned into a sack or a big hit because he was waiting to see the guy open.

I didn't see Kenny play with a consistent clean pocket in any game except the Bengals.  To your point, I think he could have done much more against the Cardinals early. That was a time for Kenny to gain some momentum early on and he didn't. But that was one game after the OC switch and he didn't play the rest of the season.

Really my post to my comes back to for me is we can’t solo say that getting better right now is about putting better around Kenny, we can’t make everything about better line because then we can’t afford good WR’s.  So something somewhere is going to have to be less than ideal, and I don’t feel like Kenny at this point can do with this less than ideal on the line, and his anticipation makes me work when WR’s are below average.
 

I don't think it is a good OL, but bad WR's. I don't think it's a good offense and poor defense.  Great teams have both. Second year QB's shouldn't be asked to do more with less.  Give him the basics a rushing attack, decent pass protection, and a defense.  He can win that way.  That is exactly what the Lions did with Jared Goff.  He was close to ironically being considered replaced by Mason Rudolph.  This will be a big year for Kenny.  Support what is best for the team and the rest should work itself out.  

 

[warfelg]

8 minutes ago, Steeler Hitman said:

The draft gives you four to five years on a rookie deal.  There may be better and less expensive free agent options in 2025 and 2026. Players sign these huge contracts and don't get to see a lot of the money.  I would be quite happy with Jones, a first and second round RT and Center.  Easier and less expensive to find Ramon Foster in free agency than Jonathan Ogden.

I’m only going to respond to a few spots here - yes, that’s ideal to find a Foster, but we haven’t in a long time.  And cost effective on the rookie deal is only a 4 year window.  Even if you do those three spots you suggest in a row as high picks, you are lucky to get 2 years of overlap at all 3 spots with that low overall hit.  

8 minutes ago, Steeler Hitman said:

I disagree in that you are going to need an OL and improved team regardless of QB. Again, for all the Fields love, he didn't do it with the OL and receivers in Chicago. QB's need protection and weapons. You may get away with a season or two, but you end up getting your QB banged up. One reason I will argue that Big Ben is probably not still playing with Pickett sitting in the wings waiting. Ben got beat up far too much early in his career. 

I mean - then why can’t Kenny play better as is.  Either those things need to be improved and the QB currently here should be better or they don’t need to and it’s on the QB.  It seems a little like you are trying to say both things at once here.

 

12 minutes ago, Steeler Hitman said:

Second year QB's shouldn't be asked to do more with less.  Give him the basics a rushing attack, decent pass protection, and a defense.

Psst…that’s what he had this year.

[Steeler Hitman]

12 minutes ago, warfelg said:

I’m only going to respond to a few spots here - yes, that’s ideal to find a Foster, but we haven’t in a long time.  And cost effective on the rookie deal is only a 4 year window.  Even if you do those three spots you suggest in a row as high picks, you are lucky to get 2 years of overlap at all 3 spots with that low overall hit.  

For not picking in the top ten every year, the Steelers are in a position to do exactly that (build a solid OL). You can't have five #'1 and keep all of them. You will need a Foster, Daniels, Seumalo, etc. That is what you want "success within that 4 year window."  You also hope to build some good pieces around your QB on his rookie deal (that gives you 4-5 years.  You should be able to do a lot in 4-5 years.  The Chiefs have.

I mean - then why can’t Kenny play better as is.  Either those things need to be improved and the QB currently here should be better or they don’t need to and it’s on the QB.  It seems a little like you are trying to say both things at once here.

It is some of both, not one or the other. We like to make everything this and that.  I understood why the Steelers had Canada to stay on.  After the first four games coming into the bye, I wrote, that I would probably cut bait at that point. It wasn't all Kenny. The rushing attack was nonexistent. Najee was catching flack, GP looked bad, Austin wasn't doing anything, they were not getting the ball to Muth, the OL sucked, and DJ started dropping balls and having some mental lapses. 

Do those things affect the offense and the confidence of your young QB and players? Yes.

Yes, Kenny does need to play better PERIOD!  The team also needs to support him better: coaching, players, scheme, protection, rushing attack, etc. It is actually a resounding both. Kenny didn't come into the NFL as Dan Marino.  Even Dan couldn't carry his team to a SB title. He was as franchise as they come. He's a HOF QB and Bubby Brister has more rings than Marino.  

Psst…that’s what he had this year.

No way brother.  We will agree to disagree. I don't think Kenny had all that great of a supporting cast early on. He has been sacked more than 50 times in less than 25 full games. The pressure and hits he's taken have taken their toll. He has been slobber knocked in the pocket and or running for his life. I have said since week one up until later in the season, the biggest disappointment has been the play of the OL. I am not trying to make Matt Canada be the only broken piece here, but even the OL looked good after he was gone.

 

[rlon]

Psst…that’s what he had this year.

No way brother.  We will agree to disagree. I don't think Kenny had all that great of a supporting cast early on. He has been sacked more than 50 times in less than 25 full games. The pressure and hits he's taken have taken their toll. He has been slobber knocked in the pocket and or running for his life. I have said since week one up until later in the season, the biggest disappointment has been the play of the OL. I am not trying to make Matt Canada be the only broken piece here, but even the OL looked good after he was gone.^^^^
 

To add to the lack of an offensive supporting cast, in the reasoning about Pickett, the defense was not anywhere near elite. In fact, they weren’t very good at all. Everyone is quick to mention that the defense suffered from the offenses lack of time of possession and effectiveness, but I think it went both ways. It’s amazing that this team made the playoffs. This defense allowed opposing offenses to move the ball way too easily. They had a hard time getting off the field, and, yes, they would have to come back on too soon. Both sides were a problem. 

Edited March 3 by rlon

[AFF]

8 minutes ago, rlon said:

Psst…that’s what he had this year.

No way brother.  We will agree to disagree. I don't think Kenny had all that great of a supporting cast early on. He has been sacked more than 50 times in less than 25 full games. The pressure and hits he's taken have taken their toll. He has been slobber knocked in the pocket and or running for his life. I have said since week one up until later in the season, the biggest disappointment has been the play of the OL. I am not trying to make Matt Canada be the only broken piece here, but even the OL looked good after he was gone.^^^^
 

To add to the lack of an offensive supporting cast, in the reasoning about Pickett, the defense was not anywhere near elite. In fact, they weren’t very good at all. Everyone is quick to mention that the defense suffered from the offenses lack of time of possession and effectiveness, but I think it went both ways. It’s amazing that this team made the playoffs. This defense allowed opposing offenses to move the ball way too easily. They had a hard time getting off the field, and, yes, they would have to come back on too soon. Both sides were a problem. 

Steelers defense was 6th in the NFL in PPG allowed.

Issues yes but no where near the offense.

[Steeler Hitman]

4 hours ago, 43M said:

 

 

Edited March 3 by Steeler Hitman
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[Steeler Hitman]

4 hours ago, 43M said:

 

 

Edited March 3 by Steeler Hitman
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[Steeler Hitman]

4 hours ago, 43M said:

 

 

Edited March 3 by Steeler Hitman
Duplicate post

[Steeler Hitman]

4 hours ago, 43M said:

When you were not a fan of how he looked in college and he comes out and shows about what you expect for two straight seasons, it is NOT a knee jerk.     Knee jerk would have been if after his first month or two, I completely gave up on him....or hell, I will even give you his rookie season.

I am not saying that your reaction specifically is knee jerk. Many others are.  They just look at results or the finished product, not the process.

I am not saying that Kenny is blameless and doesn't have to improve either.

The part that is in red is how many feel because they already had a preconceived opinion, and that is hard to change unless you do something extraordinary.

But when a guy doesn't progress, like, at all, in his first two years, it sure as hell isn't a good thing and doesn't bode well for his future.

I didn't need Pickett to look like a star to have some faith in him....I just needed to see some growth.   I saw none.     Even good QBs in bad situations show a little improvement as time goes on.    

In what area has Kenny improved in in his first two years?

Good stuff there and on the surface it looks good, but deep down, it is not necessarily a fair assessment. The stats aren't there, but they don't show the affect, or maybe the lack there of do, of poor coaching, scheme, and performance of those around him and himself.

Once again....I am not saying Kenny cannot improve.    I think he can.    I just think its extremely limited, and many felt his ceiling was extremely limited coming out, Hence...not kneejerk at all.

Fair enough. I feel Kenny will improve based on his heart and head.  I think Kenny, himself, would say that last year was not a success.  I think some of the knee jerk is aimed at, Kenny didn't develop just because of Kenny.

Purdy is much more decisive and goes through his progressions much better than Pickett.

I would argue that is because he has a better team around him and doesn't have to go out and be "the Man."  The 49'ers are a better team than the Steelers right now and it isn't because of Brock being better than Kenny.

Could Pickett have been coached up to that in San Fran?    Perhaps, but its no guarantee at all.    

How would Brock look playing under the Steelers coaching and scheme? Would you expect the same success?

There are alot of intangibles as a QB you either have or you don't.

I think Kenny has a lot more intangibles than in terms of just pure QB skills (strong arm, super fast, etc.).

I'm not sure Kenny has the same intangibles as Brock Purdy.   In fact, I rather doubt it.

Good debate, but we are looking strictly at results.  I still don't think Brock Purdy's the top QB if you could redraft. Maybe if people look strictly at results (win/loss).

Yes, Pickett had a bad OL and coaching, but lets not act like he had NOTHING around him.    He had solid weapons.   Perhaps not AB, LeVeon and Bryant weapons....but better than many QBs have.

I agree, but if you don't have time to throw?????? The offense was trying to be more than two yard passes. I point to the Arizona game as a game that should have been a turning point for Kenny.  He played poorly, they put Mitch in who was worse, and then Mason saved the season.

And while I certainly do not blame Pickett for everything, I think the easy out is to just blame Canada for everything either.

I agree. Not all Matt, but he certainly didn't help more than he hurt.

Don't get me wrong, Canaduh was terrible, and as you stated....time will tell how much of an impact he had on Kenny's development, but you can also make the argument that Canada didn't have much to work with either.    As bad as he is/was. he was thrown into a horrid situation in 2021.

Not defending Canada since I don't think he had a grasp of how to run an NFL offense, but drafting a 3rd round talent QB in the first round and expecting a mediocre OC to work wonders with him was always a recipe for disaster.

Maybe, maybe not.   I am just looking at how he has looked so far.

If he progresses....great.    I still don't believe he has the upside to progress into a franchise QB.   

I think Kenny can be Jarred Goff.  Not elite, upper echelon, but a solid winning QB.

In fact, the worst case scenario is he pulls a Daniel Jones, and he looks just barely "good enough" that we foolishly give him an extension.

Whew. I agree. This year is Kenny's make or break year.  In the immortal words of John Wayne as Big Jake, "Your fault, my fault, nobody's fault."

 

[warfelg]

46 minutes ago, Steeler Hitman said:

For not picking in the top ten every year, the Steelers are in a position to do exactly that (build a solid OL). You can't have five #'1 and keep all of them. You will need a Foster, Daniels, Seumalo, etc. That is what you want "success within that 4 year window."  You also hope to build some good pieces around your QB on his rookie deal (that gives you 4-5 years.  You should be able to do a lot in 4-5 years.  The Chiefs have.

The Chiefs have also been a much better drafting team than us as of late.  But also they got “lucky” with Smith and Humphrey, paid their RT and LG really highly, and had crap play at LT.  Mahomes is good enough to overcome poor OT play and a backup LG.  We know Kenny can’t.  That’s why I look more at QB issue than OL issue.

46 minutes ago, Steeler Hitman said:

It is some of both, not one or the other. We like to make everything this and that.  I understood why the Steelers had Canada to stay on.  After the first four games coming into the bye, I wrote, that I would probably cut bait at that point. It wasn't all Kenny. The rushing attack was nonexistent. Najee was catching flack, GP looked bad, Austin wasn't doing anything, they were not getting the ball to Muth, the OL sucked, and DJ started dropping balls and having some mental lapses. 

Do those things affect the offense and the confidence of your young QB and players? Yes.

Yes, Kenny does need to play better PERIOD!  The team also needs to support him better: coaching, players, scheme, protection, rushing attack, etc. It is actually a resounding both. Kenny didn't come into the NFL as Dan Marino.  Even Dan couldn't carry his team to a SB title. He was as franchise as they come. He's a HOF QB and Bubby Brister has more rings than Marino.  

I don’t disagree, but I’m not putting it all on fixing around Kenny.  He needs competition around him at QB.  

46 minutes ago, Steeler Hitman said:

No way brother.  We will agree to disagree. I don't think Kenny had all that great of a supporting cast early on. He has been sacked more than 50 times in less than 25 full games. The pressure and hits he's taken have taken their toll. He has been slobber knocked in the pocket and or running for his life. I have said since week one up until later in the season, the biggest disappointment has been the play of the OL. I am not trying to make Matt Canada be the only broken piece here, but even the OL looked good after he was gone.

Not all of those sacks and hits are on the OL.  Kenny drifted into plenty of them, spun into plenty of them, held onto the ball too long.  He’s got happy feet and bailed on the pocket that was clean WAY too much.  

I’m sorry but this comes into the wanting to argue both things of we’re a QB away, but then it’s also Kenny needs more support.  It can’t be both at the same time.  Either this team is ready to go with a tweak or two and the QB is in need of changing or the QB is fine any everything needs overturned.

 

To me, this all seems like a bunch of excuse building for Kenny.  There’s enough tape of people playing good around him to know he’s got plenty of issues.  I just am of the mind I don’t want to see them do too much to build specifically for Kenny, I want them to bring competition and if Kenny looses, well he looses.  I think this saying bring in mild competition (Tannehill, Rudolph) and put all those better line and better players around him doesn’t help us much.

[warfelg]

21 minutes ago, AFF said:

Steelers defense was 6th in the NFL in PPG allowed.

Issues yes but no where near the offense.

Only the Niners defense allowed less TD’s, we were tied with the Chiefs for 2nd least. 21st in total yards, 17th in pass yards, 19th in rush yards.  5th best red zone defense.  And you know what, for the number of injuries we had on defense (down 4 safeties at one point, 2 DL, 3 LB’s) I’m hard pressed to blame ANY of the offenses issues on the defense.

[rlon]

57 minutes ago, warfelg said:

Only the Niners defense allowed less TD’s, we were tied with the Chiefs for 2nd least. 21st in total yards, 17th in pass yards, 19th in rush yards.  5th best red zone defense.  And you know what, for the number of injuries we had on defense (down 4 safeties at one point, 2 DL, 3 LB’s) I’m hard pressed to blame ANY of the offenses issues on the defense.

21st in total yards…also, every team gets injuries. We were a below average defense, regardless. You won’t blame the defense for the offense, but you will blame the defense’s troubles on the offense. Also, it wasn’t like teams were in shoot outs with us. Not like they had to ever score quickly or so often. If I am a coach ongoing  against the Steelers I’m focused on not giving away any turnovers, not being so aggressive. A field goal was like a freakin’ touchdown against us, after all. I’m just saying that it is related to both sides, and our defense deserved no group prizes.

[warfelg]

1 minute ago, rlon said:

21st in total yards…also, every team gets injuries. We were a below average defense, regardless. You won’t blame the defense for the offense, but you will blame the defense’s troubles on the offense. Also, it wasn’t like teams were in shoot outs with us. Not like they had to ever score quickly or so often. If I am a coach ongoing  against the Steelers I’m focused on not giving away any turnovers, not being so aggressive. A field goal was like a freakin’ touchdown against us, after all. I’m just saying that it is related to both sides, and our defense deserved no group prizes.

I’m sorry but no. The defense was put in a lot of tough places by the offense. Short fields to defend after 1:15 of clock time 3:30 of team time of a rest. 

Resting your argument on total yards and ignoring everything else the the defense did is almost insane to me. We were a +11 in the turnover battle. Best in the league was +12. 

I mean if you are saying the the defense can’t give up FGs because the offense can’t score it then blaming the defense…you aren’t having a discussion in good faith. 

[rlon]

52 minutes ago, warfelg said:

I’m sorry but no. The defense was put in a lot of tough places by the offense. Short fields to defend after 1:15 of clock time 3:30 of team time of a rest. 

Resting your argument on total yards and ignoring everything else the the defense did is almost insane to me. We were a +11 in the turnover battle. Best in the league was +12. 

I mean if you are saying the the defense can’t give up FGs because the offense can’t score it then blaming the defense…you aren’t having a discussion in good faith. 

Aren’t having a discussion in good faith? Stop, that is not even an argument you can really make. I am not just motivated to take a contrarian point. Teams moved up and down the field against us, and I observed all of it. I am saying that perhaps ‘points against’ being such favorable aspect of the 2023 Steeler Defense, considering where they actually ranked overall, is a bit misleading. Teams didn’t have to put a lot of points on the board to beat us. Field position and time of possession, easy battles to win against us more often than not…when a game plays out like that, and you are not threatened by the opposing offense, you look to grind the defense down, which any average to above average team was able to do to us last year. I am saying that just doing this, and avoiding turnovers, was a rather simple recipe to beat the Steelers. Is it because of the offense? Yes, of course and largely, but the defense is culpable too. They were healthy week one…and shat the bed. I actually think we have a good defense in terms of talent, but I think Tomlin and his defensive coordinator are a less than dynamic duo, maybe not as glaringly bad as Matt Canada…but they aren’t exactly innovators on that side of the ball.

[warfelg]

32 minutes ago, rlon said:

Teams didn’t have to put a lot of points on the board to beat us.

That’s not a defensive issue. That’s an offensive issue  5th in points against, 28th in points for. 31 TDs total scored, 29 by the offense. That’s an average of 10.2 points per game from offensive touchdowns. But sure giving up on average 2 TDs and 2 FGs a game is the problem. Heck Boswell alon was worth 6.7 PPG, almost as much as the offense scoring touchdowns.

32 minutes ago, rlon said:

avoiding turnovers, was a rather simple recipe to beat the Steelers

Because the offense couldn’t capitalize on it. We had 27 turnovers in our favor and scored on 6 of them all year. 
 

Again we gave up only 33 TDs all season. And that first game you point to as part of the reason we should blame the defense is to one of the best offenses all season. 
 

Im not even saying the defense was perfect but blaming a bottom 3 offense on a top 6 defense is WILD. 

32 minutes ago, rlon said:

Field position and time of possession, easy battles to win against us more often than not…when a game plays out like that, and you are not threatened by the opposing offense, you look to grind the defense down, which any average to above average team was able to do to us last year.

THIS IS AN OFFENSIVE PROBLEM!!!!! Seriously this is why I don’t believe you are actually having a good faith discussion. You are wanting to blame not being able to sustain drives of flip the field on the defense when we had the least yards per drive, least points per drive, but had some decent starting field positions. I mean you say right in there they wanted to do something because they knew our offense couldn’t do it. 
 

I mean, this is a wild one: Our defense in 2008 was one of the best of all time and it gave up 13.9 PPG, meaning with that defense our offense would have been on average good enough to win games by an average of 3 points. So our 2023 defense was 2 FGs per game worse than one of the best of all time and that’s not good enough. Wild.