🏈 Pick #13 is in! Raiders select TE, Brock Bowers, Georgia

[G]

GREAT Bowers is our new 'Carr' thread. lol We shall see if it bleeds into other threads over the years. 

RARELY are there top guys more than 5.  It's why Jimmy Johnson's draft value chart assigned so much value to the first four picks. 400 points difference between them til picks 4 down to 5 which is 100. That's a HUGE DIFFERENCE. Why use Jimmy's and not the Trey Lance QB one is because NO ONE had a clue how to value until we had seen Jimmy's so it's the Bitcoin of crypto...

Then picks have 100 until 8 dropping to 9 which is 50...Then pick 19 it all goes  downhill fast...So below is a draft most of us  know well where BPA slipped.

1998 Manning, Leaf, Wadsworth, Woodson and Moss (who fell to 21 because of character concerns) Manning, Woodson and Moss lived up to the hype. Hopefully Bowers will too as all of college football knew his name in his first season as a Dawg. He was ranked above Mayer last season and many had Mayer as the #1 TE in the draft. He wasn't the first picked and personally I wanted LaPorta in the 3rd as I see 'positional value' and think one good enough can be gotten in the 3rd. So A trade up for Mayer isn't what I would have done but I saw it as a top player falling so it was worth it. Bowers is a luxury pick because of already having Mayer but Harrison and Bowers were the cream of the crop before the season started and still were by the draft. Nabors was a step below Harrison but draft hype had many picking him over Harrison but he wasn't far behind. Williams and Maye were the top before the season and both had seasons less than before but still considered the top guys. Daniels rose from a 3rd rounder to 1st and then all the way up to 2nd QB picked. The other QB's most felt were 2nd round talent but an expected 'run' happened and they were all gone by 13. Alt isn't a generational Tackle. He's like Kolton Miller not a Pace, Jones (poor man's Pace at the time I remember) or Boselli (who didn't live up to his billing either) Alt is a solid LT and the other LT Fashanu had more upside/bust potential. That guy won't play much his rookie year because the Jets have Smith at LT. RT's are rarely 1st round picks but I always wanted Fuaga as I felt RT has been an issue for far too long. Loved CB Arnold and if we traded down with the Rams he would have been my pick. Arnold will probably be a very good CB but he's not in Woodson, Bailey or Springs draft status. Humphrey yes and Humphrey outplayed his ranking IMO. 

I had no problem with the Bowers pick EVEN THOUGH I don't like TE's/LB's S's or RT's  in the 1st round but generational talents I make exception for especially if my biggest need had a run just before. (I would have taken Rakestraw but not way in hell with JPJ there at 44. I see him as a Robbins without the bad mental stuff, just the good nasty stuff. Though we just signed James so Guard for now and maybe stay as long as he can CONTRIBUTE on the field. And contributing on the field is what I expect to get with Bowers. Someone who makes plays when given the chance and affect Defenses to help his teammates when it's their opportunity to eat...Adams is our #1 guy until gone and I'll bet Bowers is #1 as soon as he's gone. Hopefully 1a/1b in 2025 but we got a football player who should help the Offense from day 1 directly and indirectly. Hopefully he also develops the mentality that Maxx and Tae talked about on the rush podcast. I think he already has the foundation of it but we will see if he has it in the pros. I think he does. 

[RaidersAreOne]

I'm glad you guys got me on this channel, it's a solid listen.

[Frankie2Gunz]

47 minutes ago, RaidersAreOne said:

So this shows Bowers getting open (Vs. CBs and Ss), running good routes, making contested catches, notes a low drop rate, is a very willing blocker, highlighted Getsy was ranked #10 in the NFL with multiple TE usage...

Yeah I don't get the negativity regarding fit and usage.

I do agree that if he went to KC that would be worrisome as Reid has proven he knows how to get top production out his TE's.  Oh yeah, he also would have a guy throwing to him named Mahomes which is frightening as he loves him some TE action....

What has Getsy ever gotten out his two TE's in terms of production throughout his career?  

Let me ask you what does Bowers need to average over his first 5 years for the pick to be good value? 

Edited May 4 by Frankie2Gunz

[RaidersAreOne]

2 minutes ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

What has Getsy ever gotten out his two TE's in terms of production throughout his career?  

The fact his scheme constantly calls for 2 TE is a good thing imo. He won't have to overhaul his playbook by any means to get our best 11 players on the field at the same time.

However he never had a talent at TE1 like Bowers, especially not a TE2 in the realm of Mayer. Similar to most teams the TE1 got the bulk of the looks with the backup primarily blocking and doing the dirty work it appears.

I am skeptical of Getsy as are most people, but the talent on this O (QB aside) is honestly very good. Minshew has a noodle arm and AOC is a wildcard so I expect Bowers to get a ton of short designed plays and screens like he did in college to utilize his YAC ability. 

[Frankie2Gunz]

12 minutes ago, RaidersAreOne said:

The fact his scheme constantly calls for 2 TE is a good thing imo. He won't have to overhaul his playbook by any means to get our best 11 players on the field at the same time.

However he never had a talent at TE1 like Bowers, especially not a TE2 in the realm of Mayer. Similar to most teams the TE1 got the bulk of the looks with the backup primarily blocking and doing the dirty work it appears.

I am skeptical of Getsy as are most people, but the talent on this O (QB aside) is honestly very good. Minshew has a noodle arm and AOC is a wildcard so I expect Bowers to get a ton of short designed plays and screens like he did in college to utilize his YAC ability. 

When over the last 30 years have teams run two TE sets and gotten elite production out of both TE's?  The whole two TE top production thing is pipe dream by homers to try to justify using a top 15 pick on a TE when we had one on the roster we traded up for last year. 

2011 with Gronk and Hernandez is the only time in recent memory that I can recall.  They also had a guy throwing them the ball named Brady, not the staches....

Once again, what does Bowers need to average over his first 5 years for the pick to provide good value?  It's a simple question that no one wants to answer... 

Edited May 4 by Frankie2Gunz

[Darbsk]

1 hour ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

Let me ask you what does Bowers need to average over his first 5 years for the pick to be good value? 

I don’t have a dog in this fight but you’ve asked a few times and I think it greatly depends on the success or lack thereof of those prospects drafted around him. I personally would have drafted Mitchell at that spot as I feel he has elite potential at a position of need but I probably liked him more than most. If both corners are Pro Bowlers and a couple of the tackles are Pro Bowlers then Bowers needs to be too.

If those prospects drafted around the same area are underwhelming then there’s less pressure on the pick, he can just effectively be average but still be the best of the bunch. 

All things considered, I think I’d be satisfied if he averaged around 700 yards and maybe 6 TDs or more. I would expect a 400 to 500 yard season his rookie year and over the course of 5 years, maybe a 1000 yard season, hopefully a couple and a Pro Bowl or two plus of course his contributions to blocking, red zone offence, mismatch weapon and the odd run.

Edited May 4 by Darbsk

[Jeremy408]

2 hours ago, RaidersAreOne said:

Getsy was ranked #10 in the NFL with multiple TE usage...

Hearing that is what made me post it

[RaidersAreOne]

1 hour ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

Once again, what does Bowers need to average over his first 5 years for the pick to provide good value?  It's a simple question that no one wants to answer... 

Box score state wise is so contingent on a lot of factors on O. For example, LaPorta had an elite TE season as a rookie however he had Goff throwing him the ball led by a genius OC, not Minshew/AOC and Getsy. Therefore I don't think Bowers will come close stats wise. Prospect wise coming out however Bowers >>> LaPorta and I don't think anyone would disagree unless they are using hindsight tenfold. Bowers was a better prospect than any of the below too imo.

Here's how the top TEs produced over the past few years:

2023:

• Kittle: 65 rec, 1,020 yards, 6 TDs
• Kelce: 93 rec, 984 yards, 5 TDs
• Engram: 114 rec, 963 yards, 4 TDs
• Hockenson: 95 rec, 960 yards, 5 TDs
• LaPorta: 86 rec, 889 yards, 10 TDs

2022:

• Kelce: 110 rec, 1,338 yards, 12 TDs
• Hockenson: 86 rec, 914 yards, 6 TDs
• Andrews: 73 rec, 847 yards, 5 TDs
• Engram: 73 rec, 766 yards, 4 TDs
• Kittle: 60 rec, 765 yards, 11 TDs

2021:

• Andrews: 107 rec, 1,361 yards, 9 TDs
• Kelce: 92 rec, 1,125 yards, 9 TDs
• Pitts: 68 rec, 1,026 yards, 1 TD
• Kittle: 71 rec, 910 yards, 6 TDs
• Goedert: 56 rec, 830 yards, 4 TDs

Now of course that's purely box score scouting and not mentioning the immense attention they require which opens up other receiving options/running game + blocking. Stats fluctuate like crazy even from the top guys. See Kittle's TDs go from 6 to 11 to 6. 

But personally I would hope by the end of year 5 Brock is an automatic 85+ reception, 1,000 yard+, 8+ TD guy for sure. I think he could/should become the best TE in football. Again it will come down to factors like who he has throwing the rock, if Adams is shipped out / BB becomes the focal point of our passing attack, if AP/Getsy are canned and we bring in an offensive minded HC, etc.

 

[Frankie2Gunz]

1 hour ago, Darbsk said:

I don’t have a dog in this fight but you’ve asked a few times and I think it greatly depends on the success or lack thereof of those prospects drafted around him. I personally would have drafted Mitchell at that spot as I feel he has elite potential at a position of need but I probably liked him more than most. If both corners are Pro Bowlers and a couple of the tackles are Pro Bowlers then Bowers needs to be too.

If those prospects drafted around the same area are underwhelming then there’s less pressure on the pick, he can just effectively be average but still be the best of the bunch. 

All things considered, I think I’d be satisfied if he averaged around 700 yards and maybe 6 TDs or more. I would expect a 400 to 500 yard season his rookie year and over the course of 5 years, maybe a 1000 yard season, hopefully a couple and a Pro Bowl or two plus of course his contributions to blocking, red zone offence, mismatch weapon and the odd run.

I appreciate you answering the question.

700 and 6 average for his first 5 season would be underwhelming  and would not pose good value for being a top 15 pick with so many other holes to fill and a 2nd rounder on the roster that we traded up for last season. 

Let's assume your projections are accurate, I think it would be fair to assume that if Mayer were the full time starter he would average 600 and 4.  The question then becomes is an extra 100 yards and 2TD's over a 17 game season worth a top 15 selection?  To me the answer would be no....

[NCOUGHMAN]

19 hours ago, OldManWillis said:

I don't understand the hate this pick has gotten. One of the true Blue Chip talents fell to 13 and people are complaining?? 

Yea we needed a QB, and it would have been nice to have grabbed one of the top 3, but that wasn't gona happen. Now where the hell were we suppose to get a QB?? 

The only way i figure people are complaining bout this pick is due to egos. No one saw this pick coming and it ruined everyones "mocks". 

 

 

Naw atl ruined everyone’s mock lol

more like people asking logical questions that can’t be answered logically. Besides he’s “just the goat te” and “he’s blue chip”, “bpa cause the analysts say so”. People ask for games that show goat potential and they point to him playing vs the scrubbiest teams possible or say look at tape from 2-3 years ago. Then blame the qb (who will prolly go round 1 next year), coaches and system. 
 

heard that same shi with leatherwood. People argued “ his ras #’s off the charts”, “ all American” etc etc go back and look at that thread

Bigger ? Is why picks like jpj don’t even get questioned tho?

[Frankie2Gunz]

6 hours ago, RaidersAreOne said:

Box score state wise is so contingent on a lot of factors on O. For example, LaPorta had an elite TE season as a rookie however he had Goff throwing him the ball led by a genius OC, not Minshew/AOC and Getsy. Therefore I don't think Bowers will come close stats wise. Prospect wise coming out however Bowers >>> LaPorta and I don't think anyone would disagree unless they are using hindsight tenfold. Bowers was a better prospect than any of the below too imo.

Here's how the top TEs produced over the past few years:

2023:

• Kittle: 65 rec, 1,020 yards, 6 TDs
• Kelce: 93 rec, 984 yards, 5 TDs
• Engram: 114 rec, 963 yards, 4 TDs
• Hockenson: 95 rec, 960 yards, 5 TDs
• LaPorta: 86 rec, 889 yards, 10 TDs

2022:

• Kelce: 110 rec, 1,338 yards, 12 TDs
• Hockenson: 86 rec, 914 yards, 6 TDs
• Andrews: 73 rec, 847 yards, 5 TDs
• Engram: 73 rec, 766 yards, 4 TDs
• Kittle: 60 rec, 765 yards, 11 TDs

2021:

• Andrews: 107 rec, 1,361 yards, 9 TDs
• Kelce: 92 rec, 1,125 yards, 9 TDs
• Pitts: 68 rec, 1,026 yards, 1 TD
• Kittle: 71 rec, 910 yards, 6 TDs
• Goedert: 56 rec, 830 yards, 4 TDs

Now of course that's purely box score scouting and not mentioning the immense attention they require which opens up other receiving options/running game + blocking. Stats fluctuate like crazy even from the top guys. See Kittle's TDs go from 6 to 11 to 6. 

But personally I would hope by the end of year 5 Brock is an automatic 85+ reception, 1,000 yard+, 8+ TD guy for sure. I think he could/should become the best TE in football. Again it will come down to factors like who he has throwing the rock, if Adams is shipped out / BB becomes the focal point of our passing attack, if AP/Getsy are canned and we bring in an offensive minded HC, etc.

 

I believe these stats reiterate my point that TE is not a premium position especially considering we had a 2nd rounder on the roster from he season before that would average somewhere around 600 and 4 if he were the full time starter.  

Let's take a look at what the top 5 averaged per season:

21 963/6

22 886/7.6

23 1050/5.8

The three year average for the top 5 TE's is 966 and 6.46 and a few monster seasons from individual players elevate those numbers.  

My point is for Bowers to provide good value he needs to be a superstar that is significantly more productive than Mayer would have been to justify using a top 15 pick on a TE, which is a non premium position.  

 

Edited May 4 by Frankie2Gunz

[NCOUGHMAN]

26 minutes ago, RaidersAreOne said:

Box score state wise is so contingent on a lot of factors on O. For example, LaPorta had an elite TE season as a rookie however he had Goff throwing him the ball led by a genius OC, not Minshew/AOC and Getsy. Therefore I don't think Bowers will come close stats wise. Prospect wise coming out however Bowers >>> LaPorta and I don't think anyone would disagree unless they are using hindsight tenfold. Bowers was a better prospect than any of the below too imo.

Here's how the top TEs produced over the past few years:

2023:

• Kittle: 65 rec, 1,020 yards, 6 TDs
• Kelce: 93 rec, 984 yards, 5 TDs
• Engram: 114 rec, 963 yards, 4 TDs
• Hockenson: 95 rec, 960 yards, 5 TDs
• LaPorta: 86 rec, 889 yards, 10 TDs

2022:

• Kelce: 110 rec, 1,338 yards, 12 TDs
• Hockenson: 86 rec, 914 yards, 6 TDs
• Andrews: 73 rec, 847 yards, 5 TDs
• Engram: 73 rec, 766 yards, 4 TDs
• Kittle: 60 rec, 765 yards, 11 TDs

2021:

• Andrews: 107 rec, 1,361 yards, 9 TDs
• Kelce: 92 rec, 1,125 yards, 9 TDs
• Pitts: 68 rec, 1,026 yards, 1 TD
• Kittle: 71 rec, 910 yards, 6 TDs
• Goedert: 56 rec, 830 yards, 4 TDs

Now of course that's purely box score scouting and not mentioning the immense attention they require which opens up other receiving options/running game + blocking. Stats fluctuate like crazy even from the top guys. See Kittle's TDs go from 6 to 11 to 6. 

But personally I would hope by the end of year 5 Brock is an automatic 85+ reception, 1,000 yard+, 8+ TD guy for sure. I think he could/should become the best TE in football. Again it will come down to factors like who he has throwing the rock, if Adams is shipped out / BB becomes the focal point of our passing attack, if AP/Getsy are canned and we bring in an offensive minded HC, etc.

 

Honestly it’s not box score bandit business. It’s watching the games then coming to a conclusion about a player. I honestly didn’t even know his stats until earlier this week. All I knew is every big Georgia game last year i watched he was either average or didn’t play. 

[RaidersAreOne]

3 minutes ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

I believe these stats reiterate my point that TE is not a premium position especially considering we had a 2nd rounder on the roster from he season before that would average somewhere around 600 and 4 if he were the full time starter.  

Let's take a look at what the top 5 averaged per season:

21 963/6

22 886/7.6

23 1050/5.8

The three year average for the top 5 TE's is 966 and 6.46 and a few monster seasons from individual players elevate those numbers.  

My point is for Bowers to provide good value he needs to be a superstar that is significantly more productive than Mayer would have been to justify using a top 15 pick on a TE which is not a premium position.  

I think we may be arguing two different points here. You seem to be focused on the value of the selection having Mayer already vs. I am simply pointing out how dominate Bowers should be.

In a perfect world both TEs would put up nice stats but naturally Bowers will outshine Mayer in ever stat and that isn't a knock on Mayer. It's simply drafting better talent and improving our team, even if we have a viable starter in place. It's obviously not at the level of this next example, but the Chiefs clearly did the right thing drafting an elite talent in Mahomes when they already had a capable starter in place. Did they have bigger needs than a QB? For sure, but you do not pass on amazing talent if it offers your team a big upgrade (Position be damned).

I agree in a vacuum and simply box score scouting, TEs typically do not put up the gaudy bulk stats that WRs do. However that doesn't make them less important. Look at Offensive systems such as the Chiefs, Ravens and 49ers. All have All-Pro talent at TE and it's safe to say their TE is their #1 receiving threats. I don't think those teams are too bothered or would even consider them "non-premium positions". 

[Darbsk]

21 minutes ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

I appreciate you answering the question.

700 and 6 average for his first 5 season would be underwhelming  and would not pose good value for being a top 15 pick with so many other holes to fill and a 2nd rounder on the roster that we traded up for last season. 

Let's assume your projections are accurate, I think it would be fair to assume that if Mayer were the full time starter he would average 600 and 4.  The question then becomes is an extra 100 yards and 2TD's over a 17 game season worth a top 15 selection?  To me the answer would be no....

That is a fair point. Again, it depends upon the other picks for me. If Mitchell is an All Pro within 5 years and Fuaga is a multi Pro Bowler and mauler at RT then I’d probably want more to be equitable or it would be very underwhelming.

I happen to really like Mayer, so even with Bowers there I’d have gone RT or CB, Mitchell or Fuaga. He has to produce certainly to make the pick worthwhile but usually it’s a bit spotty in the mid 1st and not all picks will be good and work out realistically. Those numbers above would be a kinda minimum to think the pick wasn’t a bit wasteful but even then if the guys picked around that have superb production he would need that too.

[NCOUGHMAN]

22 minutes ago, RaidersAreOne said:

I think we may be arguing two different points here. You seem to be focused on the value of the selection having Mayer already vs. I am simply pointing out how dominate Bowers should be.

In a perfect world both TEs would put up nice stats but naturally Bowers will outshine Mayer in ever stat and that isn't a knock on Mayer. It's simply drafting better talent and improving our team, even if we have a viable starter in place. It's obviously not at the level of this next example, but the Chiefs clearly did the right thing drafting an elite talent in Mahomes when they already had a capable starter in place. Did they have bigger needs than a QB? For sure, but you do not pass on amazing talent if it offers your team a big upgrade (Position be damned).

I agree in a vacuum and simply box score scouting, TEs typically do not put up the gaudy bulk stats that WRs do. However that doesn't make them less important. Look at Offensive systems such as the Chiefs, Ravens and 49ers. All have All-Pro talent at TE and it's safe to say their TE is their #1 receiving threats. I don't think those teams are too bothered or would even consider them "non-premium positions". 

I actually think mayer will put up better #’s unless we force feed bowers. I think bowers will have typical rookie te struggles. Similar to mayer early last year. Wouldn’t be surprised if the fa te gets more pt early.