How much is Dak Prescott worth on the open market?

[Forge]

34 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Derek Carr got 4 yr/$150M so I'd assume Dak would get something like 4 yr/$200M

Probably need to add another 35-40, I think. Unless he falls off a cliff

[ronjon1990]

46 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Derek Carr got 4 yr/$150M so I'd assume Dak would get something like 4 yr/$200M

I think teams are soon to stop overpaying FA QBs myself. The results haven't been particularly good, as if teams not re-signing their in-house guy or being willing to move on is a sign. 

I think Dak has a better chance at similar level play/success elsewhere than some of the guys who have been moved recently, but teams balked at dealing for/with Lamar, have seen Watson singlehandedly tank the Browns, watched Russ fall off a cliff in a blaze of unlimited glory, just saw Atlanta pay a fortune for a guy only for a potential upgrade to fall into their laps for near "free", nobody bother to give more than late round flyer picks for 2 rookies with "upside" in Wilson and Fields, watched Dallas blow a draft pick on a practice squad QB...

Hard to see a guy actually becoming available and retaining much leverage once the team that knows them best is finished with him. Especially when cheaper options with potential (like Mayfield) have shown that breaking the bank for a FA QB isn't really necessary as you can find a guy and build around for cheaper if you know what you're doing. Not to mention the recent trend of rookie QBs coming in and playing well. Cheaper to take a down year or simply work the draft board for a QB than letting a FA put a stranglehold on the cap. 

Maybe Dak evades that and indeed signs a massive deal. But I think he may be one of the last to do so for a while. 

Edited May 15 by ronjon1990

[TVScout]

23 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

Different systems and organizational changes didn't garner the ultimate results.

Wins are not QB stats.

[Nabbs4u]

23 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Derek Carr got 4 yr/$150M so I'd assume Dak would get something like 4 yr/$200M

Zero chance Dak signs for less then the Jared Goff extension.  He will average $55-60M. $60M+ if several other QB sign before him. Not worth it but the going rate.

[ronjon1990]

18 minutes ago, TVScout said:

Wins are not QB stats.

No, but we judge QBs by them anyway. So it doesn't matter. 

[TVScout]

38 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

.......... we .........

The people who run NFL teams are not "we".

[TVScout]

 

[ronjon1990]

57 minutes ago, TVScout said:

The people who run NFL teams are not "we".

Do you run the NFL? Nah? Didn't think so. 

 

[Soko]

On 5/15/2024 at 11:16 AM, ronjon1990 said:

Especially when cheaper options with potential (like Mayfield) have shown that breaking the bank for a FA QB isn't really necessary as you can find a guy and build around for cheaper if you know what you're doing.

Isn’t Baker a bit of an anamoly? And even then, really coming off only one strong season? Like, north of Baker Mayfield is Derek Carr and Daniel Jones. South of him is Geno Smith (who is decent) and Gardner Minshew. It’s not like teams are finding good quality QBs in FA every year. 

Kirk and Dak are in the same tier and Kirk got paid nicely.

On 5/15/2024 at 11:16 AM, ronjon1990 said:

Not to mention the recent trend of rookie QBs coming in and playing well. 

In the last 5 drafts these were the decent rookies: Kyler Murray (1OA), Daniel Jones (6OA), Joe Burrow (1OA), Tua (5OA), Herbert (6OA), Love (late FRP), Trevor Lawrence (1OA), Brock Purdy (7th round), CJ Stroud (2OA), maybe Anthony Richardson (4OA), maybe Will Levis (SRP). Thats 9-11 QBs, and only three drafted outside the top 6. 

That’s out of 57 total drafted QBs (11+ average), 26 were Day 1 or Day 2 picks (5+ average). So your chances are, what, 1/5? And most of those hits coming in the top 6. Even then, those are only rookie year hits. If you’re talking about QBs clearly above the Dak tier, that’s pretty much just Burrow, maybe Stroud and Purdy.

Those are pretty crappy odds, especially if you have a team that’s “ready to win”. Those windows are usually pretty small, and if you maneuver up into the top of the draft (assuming you haven’t bottomed out enough to get into the top), then you’re probably trading future assets away. Your regime may only have one, maybe two chances of hitting on one of those guys before they get axed.  

[ronjon1990]

39 minutes ago, Soko said:

Isn’t Baker a bit of an anamoly? And even then, really coming off only one strong season? Like, north of Baker Mayfield is Derek Carr and Daniel Jones. South of him is Geno Smith (who is decent) and Gardner Minshew. It’s not like teams are finding good quality QBs in FA every year. 

Kirk and Dak are in the same tier and Kirk got paid nicely.

In the last 5 drafts these were the decent rookies: Kyler Murray (1OA), Daniel Jones (6OA), Joe Burrow (1OA), Tua (5OA), Herbert (6OA), Love (late FRP), Trevor Lawrence (1OA), Brock Purdy (7th round), CJ Stroud (2OA), maybe Anthony Richardson (4OA), maybe Will Levis (SRP). Thats 9-11 QBs, and only three drafted outside the top 6. 

That’s out of 57 total drafted QBs (11+ average), 26 were Day 1 or Day 2 picks (5+ average). So your chances are, what, 1/5? And most of those hits coming in the top 6. Even then, those are only rookie year hits. If you’re talking about QBs clearly above the Dak tier, that’s pretty much just Burrow, maybe Stroud and Purdy.

Those are pretty crappy odds, especially if you have a team that’s “ready to win”. Those windows are usually pretty small, and if you maneuver up into the top of the draft (assuming you haven’t bottomed out enough to get into the top), then you’re probably trading future assets away. Your regime may only have one, maybe two chances of hitting on one of those guys before they get axed.  

Kirk was grossly overpaid and I think the league knows it. 

Only 9-11 is roughly 1/3 of the league. Exactly my point- easier and cheaper to draft a guy. 

And who is the hypothetical "ready to win" team in this scenario, that doesn't have an entrenched starter and actually has the cap space to make such a signing without sacrificing the "ready to win" parts to achieve it? 

Everyone keeps citing Kirk. Atlanta is heavy on rookie contracts, isn't in "win now" and has recently become a bit of a laughing stock for how they handled it. 

[Soko]

10 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

Kirk was grossly overpaid and I think the league knows it. 

What’re you basing this on? Kirk’s new deal is 17.6% of the cap. He signed an extension in 2022 that was 16.8% (fully GTD IIRC), one before that in 2020 was 16.6%, and his first deal in Minnesota was 15.8%. The percentage has barely changed, and comparable players (Goff, Dak) got similar percentages.

10 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

Only 9-11 is roughly 1/3 of the league. Exactly my point- easier and cheaper to draft a guy. 

That’s…not how math works.

That’s 9 or 11 guys over the course of 5 years. Not one. I showed you the numbers, the hit rate is under 20%, and your bites at the apples per regime are usually only one. And again, most were drafted in the top 6. So I don’t see the optimism in “I’ll just draft one” when the odds don’t see to really be in your favor there. 

10 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

And who is the hypothetical "ready to win" team in this scenario, that doesn't have an entrenched starter and actually has the cap space to make such a signing without sacrificing the "ready to win" parts to achieve it? 

Everyone keeps citing Kirk. Atlanta is heavy on rookie contracts, isn't in "win now" and has recently become a bit of a laughing stock for how they handled it. 

There is no hypothetical team. I said especially if you have one, whether you do or don’t isn’t operative. The odds of just drafting a good rookie QB aren’t all that high.

Kirk’s one of the few examples because you generally don’t see QBs of his caliber (or better) hit FA. Who are all these examples of good QBs on the FA market, that aren’t getting paid? Like I said, Baker’s pretty much an anomaly. 

[ronjon1990]

12 minutes ago, Soko said:

Kirk’s one of the few examples because you generally don’t see QBs of his caliber (or better) hit FA. Who are all these examples of good QBs on the FA market, that aren’t getting paid? Like I said, Baker’s pretty much an anomaly. 

Kirk, too then, is an anomaly. He's also coming off of a major injury, coming from a team that opted to rebuild at the position rather than be crunched by a grey haired QB at the end of the line. 

That Kirk was made available indicates he wasn't that wanted in Minnesota, a team who by many metrics, is ready to compete. They didn't trade him, they let him walk. 

That alone tells Atlanta was out of their minds for the deal they gave him. 

 

Dak walking from Dallas, ostensibly in his prime, not losing his job or being benched, is also an anomaly. If he's so good that he represents insta-competitiveness, why would Dallas ever let him out of the building. You said it yourself, those types don't become available very often- and when they do, there's bound to be a reason. 

Who are all the examples of prime QBs hitting the open market and resetting it? Seems like everyone is referencing one anomaly or another. 

[Soko]

5 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

Kirk, too then, is an anomaly. He's also coming off of a major injury, coming from a team that opted to rebuild at the position rather than be crunched by a grey haired QB at the end of the line. 

He’s not when you consider that plenty of other similar QBs are getting paid in his ballpark. Baker? Not as much. That’s what this thread is about, right? How much these guys are getting paid? You could say Dak (as a hypothetical FA), Kirk (who just signed a deal in FA), or Goff (who signed an extension with his team) are all so different because of XYZ specificities, but the point is that they’re guys who are similar caliber and (in the former two’s cases) just got a big bag. 

I’m not seeing all of these Baker tiered QBs getting $30M-$35M available in free agency, as you claimed.

5 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

That Kirk was made available indicates he wasn't that wanted in Minnesota, a team who by many metrics, is ready to compete. They didn't trade him, they let him walk. 

That alone tells Atlanta was out of their minds for the deal they gave him. 

Minnesota couldn’t trade him, so that argument is out the window. Minnesota wanted him back but Kirk was turned off by them wanting a young QB behind him. 

So again I’m asking where you’re getting “the league knows he was overpaid” from? Goff is a similar caliber player and just got an even bigger deal.

5 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

Dak walking from Dallas, ostensibly in his prime, not losing his job or being benched, is also an anomaly. If he's so good that he represents insta-competitiveness, why would Dallas ever let him out of the building. You said it yourself, those types don't become available very often- and when they do, there's bound to be a reason. 

Who are all the examples of prime QBs hitting the open market and resetting it? Seems like everyone is referencing one anomaly or another. 

What?

Okay, call Dak an anomaly (which doesn’t really make sense, given two QBs in his tier this very offseason just got handsome deals) How does that prove your point that good rookie QBs are trending? Or that it’s simple to just get a solid QB in FA, referencing Baker? 

[Jerry]

5 hours ago, TVScout said:

 

As long as it isn't the Raiders paying Dak Prescott $300M, I'm happy.  Dak is arguably better than Goff, but I don't think he is $88M better than Goff.

[Nabbs4u]

9 hours ago, TVScout said:

 

No one to blame but your idiot owner and son!!! They've legit played the "wait and see" game with Dak since 2019. Instead of being proactive back then and getting a team friendly deal done "before" Goff/Wentz they waited and cost the Cowboys millions. 

Here we are 5 years later and the same exact scenario is unfolding yet again. Instead of locking up your FQB "before" Lamar, Jalen, Joe, Jared ect......, they will once again pay millions more per year, or get a Comp pick in 2026 to move on. 

Idiots!

Edited May 17 by Nabbs4u