Jaguars extend QB Trevor Lawrence (5 years, $275M, $200M gtd)

[redsoxsuck05]

1 minute ago, Danger said:

To be fair, that Vikings team were utter frauds.

They were, which is why I'm not bringing up their 13-3 record that year lol. But the Chargers, by definition, are frauds every year.

[BroncoSojia]

4 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

The Titans watched all this then gave Calvin Ridley a raise bahahaha

Yeah that video doesn't do Ridley any kind of favors lol.

[squire12]

9 hours ago, Soko said:

10 hours ago, squire12 said:

every team in the NFL had a chance at Baker when he was a FA and he got a $4M 1 year deal.  that was his market, so him getting less on his current deal is not really shocking.  

Why are you referring to Baker two years ago, when since then he’s had a better season than Lawrence, actually got his team to the playoffs, and just recently signed a longer deal than he did in 2022? 

Obviously there’s an element to Baker’s volatility, meanwhile Lawrence’s inconsistency can be written off by being a younger player. But that doesn’t excuse “this is the new average going rate for starting QBs”.

The league as a collective group of teams valued him at 1 year $4M and then after his better 2023 season Baker choose to sign a deal with TB for his current 3 year $100M contract.  why he did not push to get to FA is something we wont know.  It is possible, Baker and his agent felt the best contract he would garner on the open market was what he got OR he really wanted to stay in TB.  

9 hours ago, Soko said:

10 hours ago, squire12 said:

the 5 years is something if you consider that Baker and Goff are probably at their ceiling vs Lawrence potentially is not.  JAX is doing this deal in the hope that Lawrence is ascending vs at a plateau

I just named a handful of players that had some of their best seasons beyond age 29. Like, not just the HOFers (Brady, Brees, Peyton, Rodgers), but also Stafford, Ryan, Eli, Ben, Rivers, Romo, now Dak, Cousins, Wilson - basically most of the top 5-12 guys of the past decade+. 

If these guys were 34-35, then yeah, you have to hedge your bet that this guy is conceivably going to fall off before the deal ends. You don’t really have that fear at 29. 

sure players can improve later in their careers.  how much better were those "best seasons" vs their prior high mark?  

I think it comes down to the JAX front office sees Lawrence has his best years ahead of him and are taking a chance that this contract will pay off and be a good/great value in 2-3 years.  Will that be the case, that is unknown.  

[renndawg37]

5 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

The Titans watched all this then gave Calvin Ridley a raise bahahaha

He hadn't played football in nearly 2 years... He's going to cook this year, watch and see lol 

[Soko]

2 minutes ago, squire12 said:

The league as a collective group of teams valued him at 1 year $4M and then after his better 2023 season Baker choose to sign a deal with TB for his current 3 year $100M contract.  why he did not push to get to FA is something we wont know.  It is possible, Baker and his agent felt the best contract he would garner on the open market was what he got OR he really wanted to stay in TB.  
 

Wait, if it’s possible that Baker and his agent felt the best contract he would garner on the open market was what he got, then doesn’t that further prove my point that you’re finding starting QBs at significantly less than $55M/year?
 

2 minutes ago, squire12 said:

sure players can improve later in their careers.  how much better were those "best seasons" vs their prior high mark?  

I mean, Matt Ryan’s two best seasons of his career were at those ages. One was an MVP winning season and his only trip to a SB. Stafford won his SB, tied his career high in TDs, basically matched it in yards, and had the highest TD% of his career at 33. Dak just got MVP votes and was an All-Pro at age 30. Big Ben had 4 straight PBs, had basically two 5,000 seasons, and most of his career passing production starting at 32. Rivers got to a high level around 27 and then essentially kept it till the end. Rodgers we know. Brady we know. Brees we know. Peyton we know. 

So again, you’re going to have to bring something to the table here. I don’t see evidence where legitimate franchise QBs are falling off at the 29-32 age, unless they’re runners. For the most part, these guy aren’t tapering off in their play.

2 minutes ago, squire12 said:

I think it comes down to the JAX front office sees Lawrence has his best years ahead of him and are taking a chance that this contract will pay off and be a good/great value in 2-3 years.  Will that be the case, that is unknown.  

You can say this about any player signing any (big) contract. 

That doesn’t mean that that’s the going rate for starting players.

[Jakuvious]

4 hours ago, Soggust said:

The delayed start kind of has me thinking out of pure curiosity

and I absolutely don't envision this happening before people kill me

When's the earliest they could effectively cut him in the absolute nuclear scenario? Or phrased differently, how long is he guaranteed to be the Jags starter, sans injury?

I'm thinking if tomorrow the aliens abducted him, they did a face/off swap with myself and I effectively became the starting QB for the Jacksonville Jags.

I did google fwiw but then i realized im too stupid to understand the numbers in the first place

Theoretically, 2029. Though it would still be disastrous to do so. He's slated for a $78.5M cap hit that year if on roster. Cutting him, as far as I can tell, would be $70M in dead cap that year. So it would be savings, but a $70M hit for a guy not on the team. Slightly more feasible would be a June 1st cut in 2029, which would be $28M in dead cap in 2029, and $42M in dead cap in 2030. That's pretty reasonable, comparatively. And then cutting him in 2030 would just be the $42M in dead cap.

Though this assumes they also don't restructure anything in the coming years, as that would make cuts worse. But 2029 is likely the earliest possible get out date. Anything before that, you're talking $100M+ in dead cap.

 

And Sportrac and Overthecap both still do, I would say, a very poor job of showing how option bonuses actually work in terms of potential dead money if cut in future years, so I do not blame you for not understanding.

 

Also, regarding the contract structure, I really like some of what Jason Fitzgerald from Overthecap has had to say about this, and some of the QB contracts we've seen in general lately:

Quote

 

On a leaguewide basis I do think we are reaching a fundamental breaking point in the short term approach teams are taking to roster construction. With these types of guarantee structures the teams are basically opting into 60-70% of a contract at signing. Unless you have a Mahomes that’s a huge risk. The reward on contracts of this magnitude should come by getting multiple backend years where the cost of the contract begins to lag the market.  The minimum length needs to be six years and you have to structure the contracts in a manner to not just hand over the leverage on an extension.

These structures where teams are petrified of taking on any large cap hits on the front end of the contract lead to contracts that read five years in length but you could easily argue are only 3 or 4 years in length due to those massive salary cap figures in the final two contract years.  Those numbers will either be harder to manage or lead to an extension at whatever the current rate will be so the team can drop the cap charges again. That is not going to be a winning formula for 90% or so of the NFL.

 

They use option bonuses to push a ton of the cap hits to the distant future, while paying the player in the near future. Which really really locks you into that player for a long time, and gives them a ton of leverage at the end of the deal when you need to extend/restructure because you can't afford the absurd cap hits you scheduled for the end of the deal. It's not good business unless the guy is basically hall of fame caliber.

[Soggust]

7 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

Theoretically, 2029. Though it would still be disastrous to do so. He's slated for a $78.5M cap hit that year if on roster. Cutting him, as far as I can tell, would be $70M in dead cap that year. So it would be savings, but a $70M hit for a guy not on the team. Slightly more feasible would be a June 1st cut in 2029, which would be $28M in dead cap in 2029, and $42M in dead cap in 2030. That's pretty reasonable, comparatively. And then cutting him in 2030 would just be the $42M in dead cap.

Though this assumes they also don't restructure anything in the coming years, as that would make cuts worse. But 2029 is likely the earliest possible get out date. Anything before that, you're talking $100M+ in dead cap.

 

And Sportrac and Overthecap both still do, I would say, a very poor job of showing how option bonuses actually work in terms of potential dead money if cut in future years, so I do not blame you for not understanding.

 

Also, regarding the contract structure, I really like some of what Jason Fitzgerald from Overthecap has had to say about this, and some of the QB contracts we've seen in general lately:

They use option bonuses to push a ton of the cap hits to the distant future, while paying the player in the near future. Which really really locks you into that player for a long time, and gives them a ton of leverage at the end of the deal when you need to extend/restructure because you can't afford the absurd cap hits you scheduled for the end of the deal. It's not good business unless the guy is basically hall of fame caliber.

I saw that 78.5 number and thought it might be 2029, but I always feel like these big contracts are met with "they can really get out in like 2 years if everything fails".

As much as I hate his production, I do still like Trevor's potential, and I think he will get better, not worse.

But with that being said, certainly there are parallel universes in the timeline where potentially he might not be elite or takes a step back and getting married for the next 4-5 years seems like quite the commitment.

But I honestly do appreciate the ELI5 haha ❤️ 

[LinderFournette]

https://x.com/theryanmichael/status/1802719728093290655?t=hoCB7BBb_5HD8JEqcenPXg&s=19

https://x.com/DanPizzuta/status/1801689037587288201?t=B-uwipw9wYJwPHc3urovBA&s=19

[LinderFournette]

On 6/15/2024 at 12:36 AM, Jakuvious said:

Theoretically, 2029.

Jags could cut him 2028 with 42.5 million dead and 4.5 million cap savings. Would it be worth it? Highly unlikely.

[Jakuvious]

9 hours ago, LinderFournette said:

Jags could cut him 2028 with 42.5 million dead and 4.5 million cap savings. Would it be worth it? Highly unlikely.

This is not correct. As stated in the full post, Overthecap and Sportrac do not do a good job (especially not this early on) of representing the annual option bonuses that teams have started using. Jalen Hurts's contract has this problem on OTC as well. Cutting Lawrence in 2028 would at minimum be somewhere in the neighborhood of $70M in dead cap, and that's if they could cut him before the $35M option bonus listed for 2028. It's possible, if not likely, that it becomes guaranteed at some point prior, as that has been fairly common in QB contracts lately. And Sportrac says that $46M of the 2028 compensation becomes guaranteed in 2027, so it would almost certainly be higher than $70M (probably just $116M), but that's what I know for sure structurally, personally.

For the math, here, by 2028, he would've received $105M in option bonuses ($35M in 2025, $35M in 2026, and $35M in 2027), and $37.5M in signing bonus. They'd have paid $30M of the signing bonus against the cap ($7.5M per year from 2024-2027), and they would've only paid $42M of the option bonuses against the cap ($7M in 2025, $14M in 2026, and $21M in 2027.) So the difference between what has been paid to Lawrence versus what has been paid in cap is what they would still owe in dead cap if they cut him ($63M in pro-rated option bonuses, $7.5M in signing bonus.)

 

For a more clear indication of why you can't trust Overthecap's chart on this right now, it also shows that you save $21M by cutting him in 2031....after the contract has already voided...and he's been paid all the money. The $21M it says you'd "save" at that point, has already been paid and cannot be saved. So the money like that is what it doesn't factor in properly for cuts in future years. I'm pretty sure their charts just only account for money fully guaranteed at signing for dead cap hits, not rolling guarantees and bonuses paid later in the contract. But I haven't mathed it out to double check

[RedandPewterReturns]

As a Bucs fan - I am glad we were able to keep baker in the 33MM per year ball park when someone of the same tier just got 22MM a year more LOL. Jags being the Jags. 

Baker probably could've gotten more on the open market but he also stated he loved Tampa and securing the deal he did - with his former OC and comfort in the offense and taking less meant keeping Mike Evans. 

Honestly - The Jags are the Jags for a reason. The ravens made Joe Flacco play out his rookie contract to prove his worth. And He was much further along through 3 years than Lawerance is. 

The Cowboys are sitting there scared now to negotiate with Dak - who clearly isn't worth 55M per year. However - he's far more accomplished and today, the better QB than Trevor Lawerance who's still being hyped for his Clemson days vs. what he's actually done in the NFL. 

Honestly - I can't remember a QB prospect in the last 10-15 years with this much hype around him as a generational talent and has not even proven to be above a tier 3 QB consistently. 

[LinderFournette]

18 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

This is not correct. As stated in the full post, Overthecap and Sportrac do not do a good job (especially not this early on) of representing the annual option bonuses that teams have started using. Jalen Hurts's contract has this problem on OTC as well. Cutting Lawrence in 2028 would at minimum be somewhere in the neighborhood of $70M in dead cap, and that's if they could cut him before the $35M option bonus listed for 2028. It's possible, if not likely, that it becomes guaranteed at some point prior, as that has been fairly common in QB contracts lately. And Sportrac says that $46M of the 2028 compensation becomes guaranteed in 2027, so it would almost certainly be higher than $70M (probably just $116M), but that's what I know for sure structurally, personally.

For the math, here, by 2028, he would've received $105M in option bonuses ($35M in 2025, $35M in 2026, and $35M in 2027), and $37.5M in signing bonus. They'd have paid $30M of the signing bonus against the cap ($7.5M per year from 2024-2027), and they would've only paid $42M of the option bonuses against the cap ($7M in 2025, $14M in 2026, and $21M in 2027.) So the difference between what has been paid to Lawrence versus what has been paid in cap is what they would still owe in dead cap if they cut him ($63M in pro-rated option bonuses, $7.5M in signing bonus.)

 

For a more clear indication of why you can't trust Overthecap's chart on this right now, it also shows that you save $21M by cutting him in 2031....after the contract has already voided...and he's been paid all the money. The $21M it says you'd "save" at that point, has already been paid and cannot be saved. So the money like that is what it doesn't factor in properly for cuts in future years. I'm pretty sure their charts just only account for money fully guaranteed at signing for dead cap hits, not rolling guarantees and bonuses paid later in the contract. But I haven't mathed it out to double check

We just saw the broncos give Wilson an extension and year later cut him.  If they want to cut him they will do so.

[Jakuvious]

2 minutes ago, LinderFournette said:

We just saw the broncos give Wilson an extension and year later cut him.  If they want to cut him they will do so.

That really isn't pertinent to what I said or why I replied to you, but okay.

[LinderFournette]

2 hours ago, RedandPewterReturns said:

As a Bucs fan - I am glad we were able to keep baker in the 33MM per year ball park when someone of the same tier just got 22MM a year more LOL. Jags being the Jags. 

Baker probably could've gotten more on the open market but he also stated he loved Tampa and securing the deal he did - with his former OC and comfort in the offense and taking less meant keeping Mike Evans. 

Honestly - The Jags are the Jags for a reason. The ravens made Joe Flacco play out his rookie contract to prove his worth. And He was much further along through 3 years than Lawerance is. 

The Cowboys are sitting there scared now to negotiate with Dak - who clearly isn't worth 55M per year. However - he's far more accomplished and today, the better QB than Trevor Lawerance who's still being hyped for his Clemson days vs. what he's actually done in the NFL. 

Honestly - I can't remember a QB prospect in the last 10-15 years with this much hype around him as a generational talent and has not even proven to be above a tier 3 QB consistently. 

https://x.com/theryanmichael/status/1802719728093290655

Click the link since Twitter didn't wanna place nice and then maybe you can see why the jags gave him the deal.

Edited June 18 by LinderFournette

[Soko]

10 hours ago, RedandPewterReturns said:

The Cowboys are sitting there scared now to negotiate with Dak - who clearly isn't worth 55M per year. However - he's far more accomplished and today, the better QB than Trevor Lawerance who's still being hyped for his Clemson days vs. what he's actually done in the NFL. 

The unique problem with Dak is that the Cowboys actually played the “let’s wait and see” game, and lost. The last contract they gave Dak included things like a no-trade clause and he can’t be franchise tagged in 2025. He’s also going to be on their books for $40M next year…unsigned. So he’s got them by the balls right now. They can’t tag him, they can’t trade him, and they’re looking at a fat cap hit + no QB on the roster if they wait too long. The Cowboys can’t really afford to not give Dak whatever he wants, and he’s got all the power in that negotiation.