Watching the other five 2024 1st round rookie QB's....

[Dbrog24]

Just stopping by cause it was a rough day for rookies! Caleb showed some really bad accuracy on long balls and interestingly has some pretty low throws at times which creates some of those tips and potential interceptions. Pretty poor decision making at times too with the screen or bailout passes to his RBs for loss of yards

For Bo, my god was it a rough day for him. If you would have told me I was watching Zach Wilson, I would have believed you. A bunch of puzzling decisions in terms of constantly passing to those screens and bailouts that I mentioned for Caleb...but I mean...to the point where it was basically a sack without it showing as that. Several plays which resulted in minus 5 or 8 yards (which is why he only had 138 yards in 42 attempts). He ended up with 2 interceptions but it honestly could have been 4 or 5 if Seattle just could've had better hands.

Another thing that was super odd compared to the preseason was the amount of times he instantly rolled out of the pocket into a play action even though the pocket was super clean (very Wilson-esc). It created a bunch of negative plays and was just bad cause our WR couldn't create separation to save their lives (had quite a few drops too). You could see on Bo's face he was just rattled early on and didn't really recover until around the final sequence of the game. At that point he was staying in the pocket more and was utilizing his athleticism to run and actually put a pretty good drive together.

I'll say for both players, I think they will get much better once the game starts slowing down. It didn't help either of them that both Titans and Seahawks look to have pretty good and complex defenses...tough on even a vet IMO. Very curious to see how both players respond to this adversity next week!

[viking]

4 minutes ago, Dbrog24 said:

Just stopping by cause it was a rough day for rookies! Caleb showed some really bad accuracy on long balls and interestingly has some pretty low throws at times which creates some of those tips and potential interceptions. Pretty poor decision making at times too with the screen or bailout passes to his RBs for loss of yards

For Bo, my god was it a rough day for him. If you would have told me I was watching Zach Wilson, I would have believed you. A bunch of puzzling decisions in terms of constantly passing to those screens and bailouts that I mentioned for Caleb...but I mean...to the point where it was basically a sack without it showing as that. Several plays which resulted in minus 5 or 8 yards (which is why he only had 138 yards in 42 attempts). He ended up with 2 interceptions but it honestly could have been 4 or 5 if Seattle just could've had better hands.

Another thing that was super odd compared to the preseason was the amount of times he instantly rolled out of the pocket into a play action even though the pocket was super clean (very Wilson-esc). It created a bunch of negative plays and was just bad cause our WR couldn't create separation to save their lives (had quite a few drops too). You could see on Bo's face he was just rattled early on and didn't really recover until around the final sequence of the game. At that point he was staying in the pocket more and was utilizing his athleticism to run and actually put a pretty good drive together.

I'll say for both players, I think they will get much better once the game starts slowing down. It didn't help either of them that both Titans and Seahawks look to have pretty good and complex defenses...tough on even a vet IMO. Very curious to see how both players respond to this adversity next week!

Not trolling or exaggerating but I don't really think it was a rough day for Nix. More that likely just who he is.

 

Bo Nix was a screen & checkdown merchant at college and only looked really good at college as a 23 year old vs teenagers.

 

Obviously can improve but it wasn't like his week 1 debut was a massive surprise.

 

[Dbrog24]

5 minutes ago, viking said:

Not trolling or exaggerating but I don't really think it was a rough day for Nix. More that likely just who he is.

 

Bo Nix was a screen & checkdown merchant at college and only looked really good at college as a 23 year old vs teenagers.

 

Obviously can improve but it wasn't like his week 1 debut was a massive surprise.

 

This is such copout BS man. I could've said the same thing of Caleb as he had the same problems I listed from him in preseason. Idk how anyone can say what either of these guys will be until at least the season is done. College isn't a good example of anything. Look at the other side of this...Lawrence was supposed to be the best possible prospect/dominated in college and he straight up looks trash most of the time. 

[vike daddy]

15 minutes ago, Dbrog24 said:

Just stopping by...

hey, stop by every week and let us know how Bo did.

that was a great analysis!

[viking]

39 minutes ago, Dbrog24 said:

This is such copout BS man. I could've said the same thing of Caleb as he had the same problems I listed from him in preseason. Idk how anyone can say what either of these guys will be until at least the season is done. College isn't a good example of anything. Look at the other side of this...Lawrence was supposed to be the best possible prospect/dominated in college and he straight up looks trash most of the time. 

How on earth is that cop out BS?

 

He couldn't throw 10 yards down field in college and so far he can't in the NFL. ~30% of his passes in college were behind the line of scrimmage and low and behold in his debut he had the worst aDoT that I can remember (to go along with the worst ADOT of any 1st round QB since who knows when)

College is a great example of what a player is when they come into the league and try and play like they're in college. 

 

Nix isn't going to succeed as an NFL QB if he can't make NFL throws (i.e. 10+ yards past the line of scrimmage) 

Edited September 9 by viking

[Dbrog24]

58 minutes ago, viking said:

How on earth is that cop out BS?

 

He couldn't throw 10 yards down field in college and so far he can't in the NFL. ~30% of his passes in college were behind the line of scrimmage and low and behold in his debut he had the worst aDoT that I can remember (to go along with the worst ADOT of any 1st round QB since who knows when)

College is a great example of what a player is when they come into the league and try and play like they're in college. 

 

Nix isn't going to succeed as an NFL QB if he can't make NFL throws (i.e. 10+ yards past the line of scrimmage) 

How is it not? For Nix specifically, he showed he can throw 10 yards in the NFL. You can go back and look at breakdowns on youtube of his preseason games and he was feasting short AND midrange throws, especially in the middle of the field. Even in by comments about his first game, I talked about him getting it together towards the end and part of that was mid range throws. He made a few that were perfectly accurate before that as well but WRs weren't catching it. 

It's just hard for me to think you aren't trolling here because you said "don't really think it was a rough day for Nix. More that likely just who he is" and also talking about Nix limitations in the first game, but aren't saying the same about Caleb...it's just a clear double standard there.

It's like me saying, JJ McCarthy "is who he is" and will likely always have decision making issues, lacking touch, misses open guys, doesn't throw guys open, and also is a checkdown/screen king. Those are some common criticisms I've heard about him in college and I just don't believe that at all this early in his career. I think he will be able to grow and learn and may not make those things elite, but at least get better at them. It's just such a strange take to say what guys are in college is what they will be in the pros. There are more examples of this not being the case than there are for it (every hyped turned bust in the first round for the "bad" argument, and the surprise later picks like Mahomes, Wilson, Jackson, Ryan, Purdy etc for the positive argument).

[viking]

Just now, Dbrog24 said:

How is it not? For Nix specifically, he showed he can throw 10 yards in the NFL. You can go back and look at breakdowns on youtube of his preseason games and he was feasting short AND midrange throws, especially in the middle of the field. Even in by comments about his first game, I talked about him getting it together towards the end and part of that was mid range throws. He made a few that were perfectly accurate before that as well but WRs weren't catching it. 

It's just hard for me to think you aren't trolling here because you said "don't really think it was a rough day for Nix. More that likely just who he is" and also talking about Nix limitations in the first game, but aren't saying the same about Caleb...it's just a clear double standard there.

It's like me saying, JJ McCarthy "is who he is" and will likely always have decision making issues, lacking touch, misses open guys, doesn't throw guys open, and also is a checkdown/screen king. Those are some common criticisms I've heard about him in college and I just don't believe that at all this early in his career. I think he will be able to grow and learn and may not make those things elite, but at least get better at them. It's just such a strange take to say what guys are in college is what they will be in the pros. There are more examples of this not being the case than there are for it (every hyped turned bust in the first round for the "bad" argument, and the surprise later picks like Mahomes, Wilson, Jackson, Ryan, Purdy etc for the positive argument).

I could not care less about preseason games. So Bo Nix feasts in the midrange as a 23 year old against teenagers at college and 3rd stringers in vanilla NFL preseason games? Not exactly 

I'm not trolling - I'm speaking about how Nix performed at the NFL level and it wasn't pretty and not a good omen for his time as a professional QB. NFL defensive coordinators are going to feast on Nix knowing the don't have to defend a single blade of grass beyond 10 yards.

Players can evolve from college but what Nix has on tape so far is exactly as he played in college.

 

Unfortunately we'll have to wait for week 1 of 2025 to see what JJ McCarthy is in the NFL. As of now we're unable to project how he'll be at the NFL (unlike Nix who now has tape for us to discuss at the NFL level)

[Dbrog24]

1 minute ago, viking said:

I could not care less about preseason games. So Bo Nix feasts in the midrange as a 23 year old against teenagers at college and 3rd stringers in vanilla NFL preseason games? Not exactly 

I'm not trolling - I'm speaking about how Nix performed at the NFL level and it wasn't pretty and not a good omen for his time as a professional QB. NFL defensive coordinators are going to feast on Nix knowing the don't have to defend a single blade of grass beyond 10 yards.

Players can evolve from college but what Nix has on tape so far is exactly as he played in college.

 

Unfortunately we'll have to wait for week 1 of 2025 to see what JJ McCarthy is in the NFL. As of now we're unable to project how he'll be at the NFL (unlike Nix who now has tape for us to discuss at the NFL level)

Preseason is still NFL tape. Yes it's obviously against backups but the argument you are making is Nix is incapable of throwing 10 yards or more and he already has...a lot...against nfl people (yes again backups). He also threw some in the first game of his career against first teamers but most didn't work out due to WR hand problems or him making a bad read. I guess I'll be here in 2025 when you make your analysis of McCarthy based off his first real game. Just seems like a bad way to gauge things (see: CJ Stroud's first FEW games last year). 

[vike daddy]

yeah, one game this season does not define any NFL player (except for Van Ginkle!) and especially for rookies, and even more so for rookie QB's.

[SteelKing728]

2 hours ago, Dbrog24 said:

This is such copout BS man. I could've said the same thing of Caleb as he had the same problems I listed from him in preseason. Idk how anyone can say what either of these guys will be until at least the season is done. College isn't a good example of anything. Look at the other side of this...Lawrence was supposed to be the best possible prospect/dominated in college and he straight up looks trash most of the time. 

I think Bo Nix will be better than Caleb Williams and I think very very lowly of Bo Nix.

[swede700]

5 minutes ago, SteelKing728 said:

I think Bo Nix will be better than Caleb Williams and I think very very lowly of Bo Nix.

Well, by default Caleb is going to be better than Nix.  I personally have no faith that Nix will be a long-term starter in the league and I've had that opinion since the draft discussion.  He was always #6 of the 6 top QBs in my opinion.  He could prove me wrong...having Payton has his head coach is his best opportunity to do so. But, I'm not even sure that's enough. 

As far as Caleb, for me, he's going to be a good QB, but the biggest question for me is whether he let's his Cam Newton-esque ego get the best of him.  It's that ego that could potentially hold him back.  He's going to be problematic for us in the division for years to come, but is that going to a Favre/Rodgers level of problem or a Jay Cutler level of problem, that's the big question. 

[viking]

28 minutes ago, Dbrog24 said:

Preseason is still NFL tape. Yes it's obviously against backups but the argument you are making is Nix is incapable of throwing 10 yards or more and he already has...a lot...against nfl people (yes again backups). He also threw some in the first game of his career against first teamers but most didn't work out due to WR hand problems or him making a bad read. I guess I'll be here in 2025 when you make your analysis of McCarthy based off his first real game. Just seems like a bad way to gauge things (see: CJ Stroud's first FEW games last year). 

Preseason is kind of NFL tape. mix of 2nd and 3rd stringers a lot of which will not make an NFL team running vanilla play calling is kind of NFL tape.

 

Yep the first game isn't the full story but it's not promising that Nix is showing the same limitations but worse than what he had in college.

I'd bet the Broncos will be looking for a new QB as soon as next year. You can't play QB in the NFL without being able to attack the whole field - something I don't think Nix can do

[Dbrog24]

6 minutes ago, SteelKing728 said:

I think Bo Nix will be better than Caleb Williams and I think very very lowly of Bo Nix.

I think a lot of people would consider that a hot take but ultimately, I would say that as just of a chance of being correct as anyone else. It's why I'm so interested in the QBs this year. Historic amount taken in the first round, a bunch of different kinds of potential which is intriguing to me, and most of these dudes will get a chance to show us who they can turn into this year or next (not sure when we would be seeing Penix though). 

Kinda reminds me of 2018, though I would say those were more hyped. Such a crazy path that that specific group has taken no? Baker was one of the ONLY QBs that played well yesterday....but not on the team who drafted him. Darnold hilariously enough the same (from what I saw he seemed to play well for you guys). Jackson obviously turned out to be the frontrunner from that group despite being the 5th one taken. Josh Allen looked near Paxton Lynch levels bad his first season but then became who he is today. Rosen ain't even in the league anymore. 

Just a great representation of the absolute crapshoot it is with these guys and how they will develop or adapt to the NFL

[viking]

33 minutes ago, Dbrog24 said:

Preseason is still NFL tape. Yes it's obviously against backups but the argument you are making is Nix is incapable of throwing 10 yards or more and he already has...a lot...against nfl people (yes again backups). He also threw some in the first game of his career against first teamers but most didn't work out due to WR hand problems or him making a bad read. I guess I'll be here in 2025 when you make your analysis of McCarthy based off his first real game. Just seems like a bad way to gauge things (see: CJ Stroud's first FEW games last year). 

I look forward to it!

[SteelKing728]

9 minutes ago, swede700 said:

Well, by default Caleb is going to be better than Nix.  I personally have no faith that Nix will be a long-term starter in the league and I've had that opinion since the draft discussion.  He was always #6 of the 6 top QBs in my opinion.  He could prove me wrong...having Payton has his head coach is his best opportunity to do so. But, I'm not even sure that's enough. 

As far as Caleb, for me, he's going to be a good QB, but the biggest question for me is whether he let's his Cam Newton-esque ego get the best of him.  It's that ego that could potentially hold him back.  He's going to be problematic for us in the division for years to come, but is that going to a Favre/Rodgers level of problem or a Jay Cutler level of problem, that's the big question. 

I see a QB that wants to play backyard football instead of NFL football and isn't going to make em it at all. That and the ego doesn't help. He'll flame out harder than Zach Wilson.