Soko Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 13 minutes ago, Scoundrel said: He also plays with a subpar pass rush. He is a fantastic player Not wrong. Denver was modest in sack totals last year (T-21st, but closer to #2 than #32) and very bad in PRWR (30th). All fairness, that didn’t stop Jaylon Johnson from having an All-Pro caliber season, granted PS2 was drawing tougher assignments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoundrel Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 8 minutes ago, Soko said: Not wrong. Denver was modest in sack totals last year (T-21st, but closer to #2 than #32) and very bad in PRWR (30th). All fairness, that didn’t stop Jaylon Johnson from having an All-Pro caliber season, granted PS2 was drawing tougher assignments. 9 games with Montez Sweat is better than anything PS2 saw in front of him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 18 minutes ago, Scoundrel said: 9 games with Montez Sweat is better than anything PS2 saw in front of him Johnson was playing lights out before then too. Montez Sweat and his 6 sacks (Bears still finished with 12 less sacks than Denver) shouldn’t be the difference between a decent CB season and an elite one, but to each their own. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcpbawler Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 1 hour ago, Soko said: Passer rating allowed above 80 the last two years, 88+ last year. 58% and 59% completion allowed, which is solid, but not elite. Off of 91 targets too. 4 TDs allowed in 2022, 3 in 2023 - again, good but not great. Not the end of the world, but he doesn’t force a ton of turnovers either. PFF gives him a strong 2022, and average 2023. So yeah, not really a top 2/3 CB resume. Quoting coverage (particularly PFF) stats for the crux of an "overrated" argument is pretty flawed. Don't know where the TD numbers came from but he gave up 2 last year in a relatively (compared to'22) down season. Frankly was expecting more AAV from this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 1 minute ago, rcpbawler said: Quoting coverage (particularly PFF) stats for the crux of an "overrated" argument is pretty flawed. Don't know where the TD numbers came from but he gave up 2 last year in a relatively (compared to'22) down season. Frankly was expecting more AAV from this. Those aren’t PFF numbers…so there’s that. What’s flawed about using statistics as the crux of an argument? Would his statistics not be better if he were playing better? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dbrog24 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 1 minute ago, rcpbawler said: Quoting coverage (particularly PFF) stats for the crux of an "overrated" argument is pretty flawed. Don't know where the TD numbers came from but he gave up 2 last year in a relatively (compared to'22) down season. Frankly was expecting more AAV from this. If memory serves, I think both (maybe it was 1) were against Davante Adams. I don't think anyone with a brain is going to disqualify him from being elite just because of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trentwannabe Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcpbawler Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 4 minutes ago, Soko said: Those aren’t PFF numbers…so there’s that. What’s flawed about using statistics as the crux of an argument? Would his statistics not be better if he were playing better? Not really against statistics in general, coverage statistics, however, are particularly flawed. Often times nearest defender is attributed even if it wasn't their particular zone/assignment. Gets exacerbated when a defense is as disjointed as the 2023 Denver broncos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoundrel Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 31 minutes ago, Soko said: Johnson was playing lights out before then too. Montez Sweat and his 6 sacks (Bears still finished with 12 less sacks than Denver) shouldn’t be the difference between a decent CB season and an elite one, but to each their own. Pressures matter too bud Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 3 minutes ago, rcpbawler said: Not really against statistics in general, coverage statistics, however, are particularly flawed. Often times nearest defender is attributed even if it wasn't their particular zone/assignment. Gets exacerbated when a defense is as disjointed as the 2023 Denver broncos I think that that absolutely does happen, but not nearly to the extent that it used to in the earlier “coverage stat” days, like a decade+ ago. The amendment to that is using coverage stats from the same source (because PFF vs PFR stats, for instance, will not be identical), so absent a better argument than “eye test” (which is also flawed), I don’t see a straight up better way of debating things. Bringing up the PFF grades was just another source backing up that Surtain’s 2023 wasn’t special at all, but the stats were from PFR. The other factor here is the extreme regard that other coaches and players do hold him in - which can go in lots of different directions. Like, obviously their opinions hold water, but then again…they also say some of the weirdest stuff. I forgot who it was at WR that had Surtain and Sauce as the toughest CBs (I think it was Lamb?) but then he goes and puts Xavier Howard in his top 5 lol. The NFL top 100 players thing is routinely weird, and doesn’t have good criteria. It’s hard to gauge, but does heavily favor Surtain tbf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 7 minutes ago, Scoundrel said: Pressures matter too bud What was the difference in pressures by team? Denver finished with 12 more sacks than Chicago. The difference in PRWR between the two teams was 2% (30th vs 25th, Chicago ahead). EDIT: PFR (which I don’t love using for pressures, tbf) has the Bears finishing with 10 more pressures than the Broncos (127 vs 117). 10 pressures, less than the difference between the teams’ sack totals. Percentage wise it was Bears ahead by 0.6%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoundrel Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 14 minutes ago, Soko said: What was the difference in pressures by team? Denver finished with 12 more sacks than Chicago. The difference in PRWR between the two teams was 2% (30th vs 25th, Chicago ahead). EDIT: PFR (which I don’t love using for pressures, tbf) has the Bears finishing with 10 more pressures than the Broncos (127 vs 117). 10 pressures, less than the difference between the teams’ sack totals. Percentage wise it was Bears ahead by 0.6%. PFR… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoundrel Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 29 minutes ago, rcpbawler said: Not really against statistics in general, coverage statistics, however, are particularly flawed. Often times nearest defender is attributed even if it wasn't their particular zone/assignment. Gets exacerbated when a defense is as disjointed as the 2023 Denver broncos Correct Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 4 minutes ago, Scoundrel said: PFR… 19 minutes ago, Soko said: PFR (which I don’t love using for pressures, tbf) 19 minutes ago, Soko said: What was the difference in pressures by team? Do you have a source that I (and others) can benefit from here? Not trying to be snippy here, but if you’re gonna tell me to check the pressures as if Chicago has this astronomical lead, I check from one source, and then you tell me that source is no good - you should share. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grizmo78 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Surtain is definitely a top 5 corner overall but he did have a down season last year. Everything that makes him a great corner (fundamentals and work ethic) are reasons to feel very confident in him staying great for the duration of this contract. If he's able to take that next step to make the contract a bargain, he'll need to generate more turnovers. 3 in the past 2 years isn't enough imo (note that Sauce who is brought up as another top corner had 0 last year). As for the debate going on above? There is a reason why so many of the top WR in the game today mention Surtain as the best corner they play against. Using stats to compare cornerbacks is flawed given their position depends so much on their supporting cast and context of their coverage assignments being up for interpretation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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