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Tank4Drake's MVP Watch Thread


Tank4Drake

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10 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

No shot he's an MVP candidate with Lamar in the same offense. I'd say either one of them could be a contender for OPOY. 

I agree. I guess I'm wondering if the scenario plays out where the Ravens finish as a top team in the AFC again, Lamar has good but not great year/stats, while Henry has a historic year with 2000/20 would he be considered a legit threat for MVP. Plus would they give Lamar MVP #3?  I doubt they'd give it to Henry over Lamar since it's pretty much a QB award, but it still makes me curious.

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Next Gen Stats Insight for Commanders-Cardinals (via NFL Pro): In the third quarter, Jayden Daniels threw his first incompletion on a pass under 15 air yards since the 1:12 mark in the fourth quarter of Week 2. Daniels had completed 35 straight passes of 15 air yards or less between incompletions (100 minutes and 5 seconds of game clock). The odds of Daniels completing every one of his 35 pass attempts under 15 air yards based on the completion probability of each pass was 1 in 4,545 (0.02%).

 

NFL Research: Daniels has had a 70+ completion percentage and 35-plus rush yards in each of his first four NFL games. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (four-game streak in 2019 MVP season) is the only other player in NFL history with such a streak at any point in their career.

 

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26 minutes ago, aceinthehouse said:

I just found this out today.

Hall of Famer RB Jim Brown is the only player in NFL history, to win NFL League MVP as a rookie.

He did it in 1957.

Many claim he is the still, the greatest RB in NFL history.

Just something to keep in mind.

I mean, Braelon Allen has been pretty good but I wouldn't put him in that category yet.

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22 minutes ago, Tank4Drake said:

I’ll update the rankings tomorrow but Jayden Remains #1. 

Next Update will be after Week 9. Quarterly. 

Yeah dad old didn’t have a good game 

 

but move Kirk up if he has one more good game 

 

darnold moved down a little but not much 

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On 9/30/2024 at 11:14 AM, aceinthehouse said:

I just found this out today.

Hall of Famer RB Jim Brown is the only player in NFL history, to win NFL League MVP as a rookie.

He did it in 1957.

Many claim he is the still, the greatest RB in NFL history.

Just something to keep in mind.

He’s not winning the mvp ace 

 

but McLaren did mess up with that one td pass 

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On 10/6/2024 at 10:41 PM, Tank4Drake said:

I don’t think it’s close right now. 

Last week was Daniels 1a and Darnold 1b.

How about Baker?

 

edit - sorry just saw you mentioned baker a week prior

Edited by Soggust
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On 9/29/2024 at 10:53 PM, Tank4Drake said:

Bulk stats is never a good thing for MVP. IMO here are the ingredients that decide it every year:

1) Need to finish as a playoff team. Some people think this needs to be a Top 2 seed, but no it doesn’t. Any playoff team will work. 

2) Total TD-INT Ratio. This includes both Passing/Rushing together. 

3) Passer Rating

4) COMP %

5) YPA

Looking at the history of the award, these are the most crucial components. 

A RB or WR that finishes over 2,000 yards with no record-setting QB is also eligible for the award. 

Bulk Stats really don’t matter. 

Right now I feel it’s pretty close between Daniels and Darnold but I give it to Daniels. I feel like there is some stigma because Daniels is a Rookie and people are leaning Darnold because of that stigma. 

Umm no this is so wrong. The NFL MVP award has historically favored players from top-performing teams, specifically those within the top 2 seeds in their conference. Since 1957, only 15 out of 67 MVPs have come from teams outside the top 2 seeds, that's almost 80%. This trend underscores a clear emphasis on team success as a critical component of the MVP selection process.

Even more telling is that these cases are not only rare but becoming unheard of now. The last MVP to be from outside the top 2 seeds was Adrian Peterson in 2012, and he had an extraordinary season, rushing for over 2,000 yards—just eight yards shy of the all-time record. This was the sort of historic performance that stands out as an exception rather than the norm.

The last 11 MVPs have all been from the 1 or 2 seed, and the last 7 MVPs specifically came from the 1st seed in their respective conferences. This isn’t just a historical trend; it’s a concrete, irrefutable shift in how MVPs are chosen. It’s no longer simply about standout individual stats—MVPs now need to lead a top-seeded team. To suggest that any playoff team can produce an MVP ignores the reality of the award’s evolution.

Claiming that seeding doesn’t matter for the MVP race shows a lack of understanding. It has, in fact, become virtually impossible to win MVP unless you’re the quarterback of a top 2-seeded team. That’s where the award’s standards are today. Anything outside of that would require a season of unprecedented achievements that fundamentally change the game. The MVP has moved beyond being an award for individual greatness alone; it demands dominance that translates directly into a top-tier team record.

For an MVP to emerge from a team not within the top 2 seeds, they would need to have an absolutely exceptional season that rewrites the record books. In today’s quarterback-driven league, that would likely mean shattering single-season passing records while carrying their team to the playoffs despite significant obstacles. Without such a monumental season, it’s almost certain that voters will continue to favor candidates from top-seeded teams, where both individual performance and team success go hand in hand.

Just look at Derrick Henry in 2020. He had 2,027 yards, 5.4 yards per carry, and 17 touchdowns, finishing as the 4th seed. Compare that to Adrian Peterson’s MVP season, with 2,097 yards, 6 yards per carry, and 12 touchdowns and finished as the 6th seed. You’d think Henry would have been in the MVP conversation, right? Wrong. He didn’t even get a SINGLE VOTE. That shows you just how much the MVP has become about being the best quarterback on a top 2 seed—preferably the top seed in either conference. It’s next to impossible for anyone else to win anymore; you have to fit that criteria. And recently, the voters have narrowed it down even further, with the last 7 MVPs all coming from the 1st seed.

So, unless we witness a truly record-breaking season that defies all odds, the MVP award will continue to be exclusive to top 2-seeded teams—a trend that’s not likely to change anytime soon. I hope you grasp the critical importance of being a top 2 seed when considering MVP candidates. If you want your rankings to reflect reality, this is a non-negotiable factor. But if you prefer to live in fantasy land, feel free to ignore it.

Edited by PatsBradyGoat
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