Week 6: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

[Forge]

11 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Not like he was noticed when he was playing anyways...But the depth is low and the starters are nothing special. Great combination lol. 

I would've thought he would not see the second year, but it only saves like 3 million to cut him because of the void years, so not sure if they'll move on or not. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

3 minutes ago, Forge said:

I would've thought he would not see the second year, but it only saves like 3 million to cut him because of the void years, so not sure if they'll move on or not. 

I mean even if he is on the roster, that's fine I guess. But he didn't show much in limited snaps. Supposed to be good at setting the edge on base downs but I did not even see that. 

Oh well, the 2025 draft will be heavy on the DL. Better hit on the picks. 

[NFL Network]

16 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Nothing about the Packers QB play has shown they should be ahead of the Niners off that reason. Purdy has been than Love. Don't let yesterday's mishaps in the 2nd half fool you to thinking Purdy is playing bad or has not been good. He was leading damn near all the the advanced statistics and was not benefiting from the Shanny scheme. 

Cowboys? Meh. 

If I had the choice of Jordan Love or Brock being tasked with carrying an offense I'd go with Jordan Love as if not for his injury he'd of picked up right where he left off when he took the Packers on that run after starting 3-6. The only reason why I'd put the Cowboys over the Niners is b/c Dak will carve up this Niners defense and the Cowboys injury riddled defense would just make Brock look foolish. Brock is a very poor decision maker as loves throwing into double coverage and loves holding the ball too long. If Brock could carry this team he'd single handily get them in the endzone when they need to close out games. Soon it'll be back to the drawing board at QB yet again and it'll be same as it always is.

[J-ALL-DAY]

Just now, NFL Network said:

If I had the choice of Jordan Love or Brock being tasked with carrying an offense I'd go with Jordan Love as if not for his injury he'd of picked up right where he left off when he took the Packers on that run after starting 3-6. The only reason why I'd put the Cowboys over the Niners is b/c Dak will carve up this Niners defense and the Cowboys injury riddled defense would just make Brock look foolish. Brock is a very poor decision maker as loves throwing into double coverage and loves holding the ball too long. If Brock could carry this team he'd single handily get them in the endzone when they need to close out games. Soon it'll be back to the drawing board at QB yet again and it'll be same as it always is.

You can pick who you want....I am just telling you nothing Love has shown to be on another level than Purdy....In fact, Love would be on pace to throw 30+ INTs if he did not get hurt and played in all the games. It has been that bad.

I mean you can take Dak, but I have seen the Cowboys enough in the football. Like I said, MEH. 

Detroit? That's another story and let's see how Darnold holds up...Even if he drops a level or two, that defense is opportunistic enough to be competitive...No team is really standing out above the pack. A lot of mid ball being played in both conferences and we are as mid as it gets. 

[Forge]

Bill Barnwell wrote about the Jets and 49ers: 

I'm more concerned about the running game. While Mason was having a nice day before the fumble, the 49ers simply aren't as effective running the ball this season. They led the league in EPA per play on designed runs -- which doesn't include scrambles on pass plays -- last season. They're 19th this season, and that's mostly buoyed by an excellent performance in the Week 1 win over the Jets. They are 25th in EPA per designed run since then.

It's easy to pin that on Mason, but the blocking and infrastructure don't always make things easier. The 49ers are fifth worst in the league in expected yards per carry, with their backs expected to gain an average of only 3.9 yards on rushes. Shanahan's famous willingness to run into negative looks to try to set up big plays later probably applies here. They ranked in the bottom eight in expected yards per carry in each of the prior two seasons. (Mike McDaniel, Shanahan's former assistant, has had his Miami team lead the league in expected yards per carry each of the past three seasons.)

---------------------------

Throw in the turnovers, and the 49ers' defense is facing the shortest average field of any unit. The average possession for San Francisco's defense begins an average of about 65 yards from its end zone, the shortest average trip for any offense.

A year ago, the 49ers had the second-best average starting field position on defense, nearly 9 full yards per drive better than where they stand now. That's a staggering difference for the purposes of field position. Over a full game, they are giving up about 90 yards per contest more than they did a year ago just by sheer virtue of the gap between 2023 field position and the 2024 rate before their defense ever actually steps on the field. That's a lot of free yardage being handed to opposing offenses.

[JIllg]

8 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

You can pick who you want....I am just telling you nothing Love has shown to be on another level than Purdy....In fact, Love would be on pace to throw 30+ INTs if he did not get hurt and played in all the games. It has been that bad.

I mean you can take Dak, but I have seen the Cowboys enough in the football. Like I said, MEH. 

Detroit? That's another story and let's see how Darnold holds up...Even if he drops a level or two, that defense is opportunistic enough to be competitive...No team is really standing out above the pack. A lot of mid ball being played in both conferences and we are as mid as it gets. 

Agreed. I think Minnesota, Baltimore, and New Orleans are the only teams that DVOA thinks are awesome. And of those, I think that there's some reason to believe in adjustment fall off as teams understand their new schemes. I have the most faith in Detroit to be above parity long term. We're in the second tier of teams that have been a touch above average, but whose results (outside of losing decisively to a very good Minnesota team) have essentially been coin flips. The Chiefs have been a very mid team that have won their coin flips 2022 Vikings style. Green Bay has beaten up on bad teams. We've been a very mid team that has lost a bunch of coin flips. You could read into the coin flips and say that they are predictive because they are a pattern of consistently making the same mistakes in crunch time or whatever, but basic statistics will tell you that you are likely just seeing patterns in small sample size noise. It's just like inferring that we were super clutch in the first two games of the playoffs last year, when I just think we were lucky in two games we should have lost as a just above average team towards the end of the season.

Edited October 7 by JIllg

[NFL Network]

41 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

You can pick who you want....I am just telling you nothing Love has shown to be on another level than Purdy....In fact, Love would be on pace to throw 30+ INTs if he did not get hurt and played in all the games. It has been that bad.

I mean you can take Dak, but I have seen the Cowboys enough in the football. Like I said, MEH. 

Detroit? That's another story and let's see how Darnold holds up...Even if he drops a level or two, that defense is opportunistic enough to be competitive...No team is really standing out above the pack. A lot of mid ball being played in both conferences and we are as mid as it gets. 

If I had to pick an NFC winner I'd take Green Bay b/c Jordan Love is gonna be very dangerous as the season progresses and they have a better defense than in previous seasons. The Vikings won't get very far with Darnold as he's starting to fold already and their secondary has coverage issues. I take out the Lions b/c Jared Goff has only one great game this year and he's not much better than Brock and the Lions head coach Dan Campbell is too dumb to win lol! The Eagles won't get very far with Jalen Hurts and a woeful defense. The Cowboys always choke in the playoffs and can't beat Green Bay. I discount the entire NFC South b/c nothing scares me coming out of that division resembles a true SB contender. With that being said I'd ride with Green Bay out of the NFC.

[J-ALL-DAY]

49 minutes ago, Forge said:

Bill Barnwell wrote about the Jets and 49ers: 

I'm more concerned about the running game. While Mason was having a nice day before the fumble, the 49ers simply aren't as effective running the ball this season. They led the league in EPA per play on designed runs -- which doesn't include scrambles on pass plays -- last season. They're 19th this season, and that's mostly buoyed by an excellent performance in the Week 1 win over the Jets. They are 25th in EPA per designed run since then.

It's easy to pin that on Mason, but the blocking and infrastructure don't always make things easier. The 49ers are fifth worst in the league in expected yards per carry, with their backs expected to gain an average of only 3.9 yards on rushes. Shanahan's famous willingness to run into negative looks to try to set up big plays later probably applies here. They ranked in the bottom eight in expected yards per carry in each of the prior two seasons. (Mike McDaniel, Shanahan's former assistant, has had his Miami team lead the league in expected yards per carry each of the past three seasons.)

---------------------------

Throw in the turnovers, and the 49ers' defense is facing the shortest average field of any unit. The average possession for San Francisco's defense begins an average of about 65 yards from its end zone, the shortest average trip for any offense.

A year ago, the 49ers had the second-best average starting field position on defense, nearly 9 full yards per drive better than where they stand now. That's a staggering difference for the purposes of field position. Over a full game, they are giving up about 90 yards per contest more than they did a year ago just by sheer virtue of the gap between 2023 field position and the 2024 rate before their defense ever actually steps on the field. That's a lot of free yardage being handed to opposing offenses.

Big problem indeed. 

KP brought up the EPA per play on runs and how there was a significant decline from the prior year. So while Mason has great yardage, that has not accounted for a great running game....by EPA.

 

[Forge]

3.7 seconds TTT yesterday per PFF. 

We have surpassed peak Chicago era Justin Fields with this stuff. He needs to get that down like a full second. For the year he's nearly 3.4...unsustainable. 

[JIllg]

1 minute ago, Forge said:

3.7 seconds TTT yesterday per PFF. 

We have surpassed peak Chicago era Justin Fields with this stuff. He needs to get that down like a full second. For the year he's nearly 3.4...unsustainable. 

It doesn't quite feel Fieldsy - Fields just never could see a thing properly, but the Carson Wentz thing is for real what it looks like.

[JIllg]

1 minute ago, JIllg said:

It doesn't quite feel Fieldsy - Fields just never could see a thing properly, but the Carson Wentz thing is for real what it looks like.

I think that listening to the noise and trying to prove you are an MVP worth the big bucks is nearly as good a way to be mediocre as to check it down a million times and avoid risk.

[StevenK]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

Bill Barnwell wrote about the Jets and 49ers: 

I'm more concerned about the running game. While Mason was having a nice day before the fumble, the 49ers simply aren't as effective running the ball this season. They led the league in EPA per play on designed runs -- which doesn't include scrambles on pass plays -- last season. They're 19th this season, and that's mostly buoyed by an excellent performance in the Week 1 win over the Jets. They are 25th in EPA per designed run since then.

It's easy to pin that on Mason, but the blocking and infrastructure don't always make things easier. The 49ers are fifth worst in the league in expected yards per carry, with their backs expected to gain an average of only 3.9 yards on rushes. Shanahan's famous willingness to run into negative looks to try to set up big plays later probably applies here. They ranked in the bottom eight in expected yards per carry in each of the prior two seasons. (Mike McDaniel, Shanahan's former assistant, has had his Miami team lead the league in expected yards per carry each of the past three seasons.)

---------------------------

Throw in the turnovers, and the 49ers' defense is facing the shortest average field of any unit. The average possession for San Francisco's defense begins an average of about 65 yards from its end zone, the shortest average trip for any offense.

A year ago, the 49ers had the second-best average starting field position on defense, nearly 9 full yards per drive better than where they stand now. That's a staggering difference for the purposes of field position. Over a full game, they are giving up about 90 yards per contest more than they did a year ago just by sheer virtue of the gap between 2023 field position and the 2024 rate before their defense ever actually steps on the field. That's a lot of free yardage being handed to opposing offenses.

What’s the cause of this though? Mason is still an effective runner. 
 

Are we playing too much drop back passing or are teams just understanding what we are doing especially without CMC? It’s honestly odd. I would like for us to incorporate more PA and rollouts as I feel that will allow our receivers to separate or higher chances. 

I’ve heard analysts being very critical of our drop back passing and it’s lacking. Granted I understand rank wise we are doing well, but offensively I would love for us to get back to what we do well.

[StevenK]

 

[J-ALL-DAY]

I don't even know if Evan Anderson is a good player or not but I want him active next game and want to see what he can do. What we have right now just is not good enough. 

[StevenK]