QB Situation

[Ward4HOF]

So, I guess we prepare for Wilson to start, since he took 1st Team reps ahead of Fields.  I wish him all the luck, but still feel that the Jets game is the wrong game to make this change.  Hopefully, whatever has been done to help Fields lower his Time-to-Throw to the lowest of his career, has also been a focus for Wilson, as well.  If so, then maybe Wilson has a shot at being a positive change at the QB position for us. 

I don't doubt that there will be some beautiful passes this week, that will make believers out of a lot of us, that Wilson is the better choice at QB for the remainder of the season.  It's a shame that the 25YO QB on the roster likely will not be the one to re-sign at the end of the season.  The good thing is, that there may be so many NFL-starter-worthy QBs in the draft, that one will fall to the Steelers in the middle of the 1st Rd. At this juncture, and this will, of course, change by the draft next year, but I see at least 5 potential 1st Rd QBs, if they all declare, that is, in no particular order...

Beck

Sanders

Ewers

Milroe

Ward

And then there might be some that may make a case to be in Late-1st/Early-2nd Rd consideration...

Gabriel

Nussmeier

Allar

For those who watch more college games than I do, am I missing any??  Am I 'over-rating' some of the ones I have listed???  Is Ewers too 'fragile' for the NFL?  Is Milroe just too inconsistent?  Does Ward's game translate well to the NFL??

I just think we really need to start looking at next year's draft class for our QBOTF...

[mwalker]

1 hour ago, Ward4HOF said:

So, I guess we prepare for Wilson to start, since he took 1st Team reps ahead of Fields.  I wish him all the luck, but still feel that the Jets game is the wrong game to make this change.  Hopefully, whatever has been done to help Fields lower his Time-to-Throw to the lowest of his career, has also been a focus for Wilson, as well.  If so, then maybe Wilson has a shot at being a positive change at the QB position for us. 

I don't doubt that there will be some beautiful passes this week, that will make believers out of a lot of us, that Wilson is the better choice at QB for the remainder of the season.  It's a shame that the 25YO QB on the roster likely will not be the one to re-sign at the end of the season.  The good thing is, that there may be so many NFL-starter-worthy QBs in the draft, that one will fall to the Steelers in the middle of the 1st Rd. At this juncture, and this will, of course, change by the draft next year, but I see at least 5 potential 1st Rd QBs, if they all declare, that is, in no particular order...

Beck

Sanders

Ewers

Milroe

Ward

And then there might be some that may make a case to be in Late-1st/Early-2nd Rd consideration...

Gabriel

Nussmeier

Allar

For those who watch more college games than I do, am I missing any??  Am I 'over-rating' some of the ones I have listed???  Is Ewers too 'fragile' for the NFL?  Is Milroe just too inconsistent?  Does Ward's game translate well to the NFL??

I just think we really need to start looking at next year's draft class for our QBOTF...

It's an interesting class. 

I like Sanders and Beck, maybe in that order.
I think Sanders is the closest to a sure thing, personally. Good poise and accuracy.
C.Beck reminds me of J.Goff, but a bit better athlete. Also good accuracy.

I think C.Ward is a gamer and a good athlete, with a big arm, but his accuracy is a question, for me.
He could be a D.Prescott but maybe more a G.Smith type.

I think J.Milroe is the best athlete, with a big arm, but his accuracy on his short and mid throws, worries me. Just not sure.
He's either another J.Hurts or J.Fields or worse.

Q.Ewers has a lot of the right tools, but it worries me how rarely he dominates. He either blossoms or falls very flat in the NFL.
He could be B.Gabbert or K.Cousins, maybe?

D.Allar has everything physically. Huge arm. But he doesn't dominate like you would want, so I'm not sure what to think.
Is he Dan McGuire or a baby Big Ben?

Edited yesterday at 11:06 AM by mwalker

[warfelg]

14 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

What's NOT on Fields were the first two catchable passes of the 2nd drive, one of which was a perfectly timed throw, the Pickens dropped, and the TD pass he dropped, so the narrative I've seen (not by you), that he can't throw timed throws, and he has to wait until they are open, is BS.  The TD pass was right on his hands, and the other timing throw went through his hands, and just bounced off his facemask.  Pickens has 6 catches on 15 targets in October, and at least five of those 9 misses, were on GP, not on Fields. GP killed that 2nd drive, all by his onesie.

The issue I have here is I feel like the plays that are missed far outweigh plays like this.

This thread is a good one with videos talking about some of these issues more in depth:

 

14 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

Sure, he's thrown some poor passes, but since he's our QB, we think he's worse than most other starting QBs. 

Who's saying this? No one is unless you are putting words in peoples mouths.

14 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

The bottom line is, that prior to last week, he had a 68% Comp%, so complaining about that, is, well, worse than complaining about a coach who might not be calling the cleanest game.  Pickens makes those 3 catchable balls, and he's 17 of 24, with 2 passing TDs, and one Rushing, so, would the narrative be different then?  Also, how many have complained about how he lucked out of having an INT, on a roughing call, but if you think he's the first QB to throw errantly, with a pass rusher in his face, well...and while he may have had only a 75.9 Passer Rating, his QBR was 74.9, the highest he's had all season, so how bad of a game did he really have?

Why would you take away games when assessing his play. And no - for the points I'm making those changes of stats wouldn't change my narrative. He's missing a lot of open guys that are there plenty of plays. Look at those videos in the threads above.

I mean if you want to play the stats game, and focus on the part of what many people are frustrated with in regards to Fields, he's not averaging even 200 yards a game passing. And that's really helped by the 312 in the Colts game where we had to pass out way into the game. If you want to do the take away something game, what about taking away that one. That puts him at 158 yards per game passing.

And sure, Fields may be lacking in INT's this year, but he's got 6 fumbles in 6 games, which leads the NFL. Since you brought up drops, the Steelers are 14th best in avoiding drops at 3.9% dropped (FWIW, Josh Allen who is having a great year has a dropped rate of 7.3%), which is close to tied best that he's experienced (this is averaging about 1 drop per game). Fields is also showing his lowest OnTgt% of his career, where generally 72% of his passes are on target and this year is only 63%.

But even with all of this, the stats aren't painting the full picture. You need to take in everything with the film. That thread I posted above is excellent IMO in not resorting into the "this guy away from the play" but stays with the simple based on where he was looking and the concept he saw the wrong thing.

14 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

Also, I wasn't saying that I know what reads are what, and it's possible that Smith does have the TEs a higher priority, and maybe Fields did miss some open guys, but not having reliable WRs has really hurt him, and GP is one of the biggest culprits, and he's the supposed #1?  So why are 'we' beating up on Fields, when it's clear that GP's play has regressed, even worse than Fields, the last two games.  The QB can't force the WR to catch catchable passes.

Not having reliable guys hurts him, but this is where (IMO) it starts becoming excuse making to some degree.

Like - he's missing open guys. I find kinda hard to say guys aren't reliable, blame the WR/TE group, blame drops when they are off target, or they just aren't getting targeted. Not saying all the other options (outside of GP) are great and stuff but you got to give them a chance to make plays, and I feel like Fields isn't doing great at seeing the field right now.

15 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

No one is saying Fields is faultless, or that he's a better passer than Russ Wilson, but he is younger, more mobile, and a lot taller, so he has his advantages, as well.  And all that I am arguing, is of course, based upon Wilson starting in week 7; if he doesn't, then great, but most believe that Tomlin is leaning toward Wilson.  I personally, think it's a bad idea, for more than just the one game. 

The issue is here it's all built on assumption that he will start because he is working in. 

I'll say, #1 - I don't believe you lose your job to injury, and if you do the guy who replaces you has to make it undeniable that you need to keep him in and #2 - I don't believe JF has shown that he's irreplicable. He's playing to a level of slightly below average NFL QB IMO. I feel like with RW, you don't make the change just to make it, but JF isn't getting a clear runway to not be challenged. Because these things that are missing in the passing game are things that have been missing since Ben retired. And only 1 QB in that time has done the things that I feel you need out of the position, and that's been Mason Rudolph. And I hate the guy for no reason. He's been the only one that's been going with the ball to where it needs to go, he's just made the simple play of hitting open WR's, and taken what the defense has given him. Outside of that, Trubisky, Pickett, Fields - they have all seemed a bit predetermined on where they want to go with the ball, missing open guys, and generally hurting the passing game. Fields advantage over Trubisky and Pickett is he can actually run and make something out of nothing.

15 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

I think it's bad for the season, and after the season as well. 

This is a major assumption that it would last more than this season and that RW would be resigned. As we stand right now - I wouldn't really like either QB on the roster next year.

15 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

If you don't think Fields has done enough to be, at least, an average starting QB in this league, than there are at least 14 other QBs in the same boat as Fields, because he certainly is not worse than more than half the starting QBs in the NFL, and yes, we can win with Fields--he's proved it, so why is Tomlin considering a change? 

I don't think he has. Let me start with the 14+ starters I would take over him right now: Allen, Healthy Tua, Jackson, Burrow, Stroud, Herbert, Mahomes, Hurts, Daniels, Prescott, Darnold, Goff, Love, Williams, Mayfield, Cousins, Purdy, Murry. That's 19. And that's before guys I would consider debatable like Geno Smith, Stafford and the backups like Flacco. 

The win with Fields argument feels exactly like the 'win with Pickett' despite all the things within the game that you could point to as issues. Like - I know I'm going to be really simplifying a lot, but I'm not a fan of the fact that "just win" argument stands for one person while for others it doesn't stand. Like why can't I demand better out of the QB position the way many want more out of the HC? Why is "just win" which BTW IS A TEAM STAT ok for the QB no matter how ugly it is.

Like to give you an idea of why "just win" isn't a great metric to keep him in the role easily with, the Defense has given up the 29th least points on the season, and 31st least PPG at 14.3. If we were league average, we would be 2-4 rather than 4-2. 

15 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

Maybe he feels as you do, and thinks that he's essentially 'lucked' into the wins, so far, and Wilson provides us a better chance to win, but IMO, not this week, and maybe not, at all.  Just because he's a more accurate passer, doesn't mean he'll put up better results for the offense for this game, this season, or next.

I wouldn't say that he's 'lucked into the wins' because he's done some good things. And to use a Tomlinism - I'm appreciative of his efforts - but I feel like a few of these games would have been won with just top backup level play which is about 20th in the league because it was more about the defensive efforts in creating turnovers and short fields as @jebrick pointed out.

And it's not that Wilson is a more accurate passer - he's a better processor of the passing game than Fields is. He reads defenses better than Fields in terms of the passing game. And the Jets are likely down their CB2 and for sure down their NCB. And their pass rush has somewhat been smoke and mirrors as 4/7 of McDonalds sacks have been unblocked, RB 'blocked', and then the strip sack where Levis "rolled" the ball for some weird reason. Like I've said a few times, it's the missed passes that are right there in front of him that are bothering me, and those are throws I believe Wilson would make.

15 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

It's clear you don't feel Fields is worthy of being our starting QB, and I'm not going to change your mind, but I'm also not saying that Wilson isn't capable of being successful at being our starting QB, because he is.  I'm just questioning the decision to change a QB who's won 4 games, and almost 5, and outside of a few errant throws, has looked every bit the capable NFL starter in this league, and I'd argue, more than any QB we've started over the past 3 seasons.

It's not that I don't think he's worthy, because I think you can be an OK team starting and playing him (Like you said "capable"). I just don't think he's been good enough to be the unquestioned starter. This is more than a few errant throws, it's more about the throws that he isn't making than the ones that he is for me. Because the ones he isn't making are having huge impacts IMO. 

If he starts Sunday night and looks the same as we have seen lately, we should be making a change. 

[bigben07MVP]

I obviously don’t agree with Tomlin’s move to go to Russ, although I can see why he’s doing it. And his quote of “we’ve been really good at times but not to be mistaken for great” actually gave me some big picture optimism that he’s no longer ok with just scraping by and getting wins regardless of how they come (although his actions up to this point in the season say otherwise).

I’ve come around to being cautiously optimistic about what Russ can do for the offense, but I also think that it could get ugly very quickly. My biggest fear at this point is that he gives Russ too long of a leash. If we lose to the Jets and struggle offensively against the Giants, even in a win, I hope Tomlin is ready to go back to Fields quickly after the bye week.

[warfelg]

1 minute ago, bigben07MVP said:

I obviously don’t agree with Tomlin’s move to go to Russ, although I can see why he’s doing it. And his quote of “we’ve been really good at times but not to be mistaken for great” actually gave me some big picture optimism that he’s no longer ok with just scraping by and getting wins regardless of how they come (although his actions up to this point in the season say otherwise).

I’ve come around to being cautiously optimistic about what Russ can do for the offense, but I also think that it could get ugly very quickly. My biggest fear at this point is that he gives Russ too long of a leash. If we lose to the Jets and struggle offensively against the Giants, even in a win, I hope Tomlin is ready to go back to Fields quickly after the bye week.

That's where I am with this situation. Like, a better passing game maybe lands this offense in the consistently good, which I would put between the good at times and great.

But I would have a quick hook for Wilson knowing that the offense under Fields spudders, but can do enough with this defense.

[jebrick]

I do think we are heading to the extend Fields for a short time as a bridge QB and draft.

I like Ward but he will go top 5 if not #1.  He has Mahomes vibes(Mahomes college not Mahomes NFL).

Personally, I would not draft Milroe.  I think he will be another great college QB but not a good NFL QB.

Beck might fall because he is unexciting.  Goff is a good comparison although I think Goff has a bigger arm.  I also would draft him without hesitation.

Allar and Howard need work.  Both should be day 2 QBs

Sanders is a puzzle.  Great accuracy but a plus arm.  His offense is not doing him any favors.

Ewers is one that should be good but still needs work. 

Gabrial from Oregon looks good but at 6'0 will fall down the draft

Noah Fifita (Arizona) should get some buzz but will be a day 2 pick at best due to not being able to fix 5'10

Garrett Nussmeier(LSU) is one I would take a serious look at if he is there in the 2nd.  His knock is not enough experience.  Has the arm and the accuracy but can sometimes write checks his arm can't cash.

Edited yesterday at 11:58 AM by jebrick

[Ward4HOF]

1 hour ago, warfelg said:

the Steelers are 14th best in avoiding drops at 3.9% dropped

and that's a testament to his 68% Comp %, but I'd be interested to know what his drop rate was for the Raiders and the Cowboys games, the games with his lowest Comp%; I'm willing to bet it's a lot higher than 3.9% dropped.  And our #1 WR, his drop rate is 4.5% this season, and while I don't have access to all the advanced NFL metrics, I'm fairly certain that not only was his drop rate higher this past week, which, if being generous, it would be 2 of 8 targets dropped, but it was higher in the Dallas game, as well.  

The reason I'm pointing out this specific game, is that this directly contributed to Fields' success, and the Dallas game, he was 'benched' for a much higher number of plays, than his typical game, and even when he was out there, he only caught 3 of 7 targets.

This isn't about 'evening' out the stat lines, by taking his best statistical game away, this is about the direct effect it had on Fields' success for those last 2 games, so not sure why you are bringing up this to the debate.

1 hour ago, warfelg said:

This is a major assumption that it would last more than this season and that RW would be resigned. As we stand right now - I wouldn't really like either QB on the roster next year.

That may be the case, but either of them would be more effective than we've had the last 3 seasons, I'm betting.  But if I had to choose, I'd choose the 25 YO, who can still be coached up. The one who would cost less to sign, as well.  But no worries--Fields is done here, if he's benched, I'm betting.  That leaves Russell Wilson, and if he's given the benefit of a true #2 (or now, seemingly, a #1) WR, that Fields never had, I'm betting his passing stats will look better.

I'm not going to quote everything you said, in your post, and I actually agree with a lot of your points, but IMO, starting Wilson for the Jets game is the wrong choice, especially when we've shown we can win with him at the helm (don't confuse that with because of his play, just that it hasn't been bad enough to bench him).  I get the fumbles, etc, but he still has a better chance of avoiding sacks with his legs, especially when we are only starting 2 of 5 of our intended starting OL, against one of the best Defensive fronts in the NFL.  

 

[MOSteelers56]

1 hour ago, jebrick said:

I do think we are heading to the extend Fields for a short time as a bridge QB and draft.

I like Ward but he will go top 5 if not #1.  He has Mahomes vibes(Mahomes college not Mahomes NFL).

Personally, I would not draft Milroe.  I think he will be another great college QB but not a good NFL QB.

Beck might fall because he is unexciting.  Goff is a good comparison although I think Goff has a bigger arm.  I also would draft him without hesitation.

Allar and Howard need work.  Both should be day 2 QBs

Sanders is a puzzle.  Great accuracy but a plus arm.  His offense is not doing him any favors.

Ewers is one that should be good but still needs work. 

Gabrial from Oregon looks good but at 6'0 will fall down the draft

Noah Fifita (Arizona) should get some buzz but will be a day 2 pick at best due to not being able to fix 5'10

Garrett Nussmeier(LSU) is one I would take a serious look at if he is there in the 2nd.  His knock is not enough experience.  Has the arm and the accuracy but can sometimes write checks his arm can't cash.

I hope you're right about extending Fields. I think he can still improve. Geno Smith is a testament to that. He's young, he seems like a really good character guy, he's got the athletic traits. I don't think rolling with Russ means we'll rush into giving him the bag. I'd love for Fields to get all of next year as the starter, and go from there. Maybe we keep building around him, maybe we draft his replacement. 

Also, love the list of prospects. I'm glad posters like you exist on here @jebrick. I wouldn't know half the stuff I know about prospects without it. 

[Ward4HOF]

1 hour ago, jebrick said:

I do think we are heading to the extend Fields for a short time as a bridge QB and draft.

I like Ward but he will go top 5 if not #1.  He has Mahomes vibes(Mahomes college not Mahomes NFL).

Personally, I would not draft Milroe.  I think he will be another great college QB but not a good NFL QB.

Beck might fall because he is unexciting.  Goff is a good comparison although I think Goff has a bigger arm.  I also would draft him without hesitation.

Allar and Howard need work.  Both should be day 2 QBs

Sanders is a puzzle.  Great accuracy but a plus arm.  His offense is not doing him any favors.

Ewers is one that should be good but still needs work. 

Gabrial from Oregon looks good but at 6'0 will fall down the draft

Noah Fifita (Arizona) should get some buzz but will be a day 2 pick at best due to not being able to fix 5'10

Garrett Nussmeier(LSU) is one I would take a serious look at if he is there in the 2nd.  His knock is not enough experience.  Has the arm and the accuracy but can sometimes write checks his arm can't cash.

Thanks for the insight on these guys...pretty much, what I expected--a slew of 1st/2nd Rd QBs...at this point in time, mind you, before all the deep dive into them during the pre draft process.  That said, I still think this class has an abundance of potential QBs, but if two or three decide not to declare, which often happens, that number dwindles, and all of a sudden, a couple of these prospects get 'over-drafted', which is what happened to us with Pickett, and don't want to go down that road again...

[MOSteelers56]

9 minutes ago, Ward4HOF said:

Thanks for the insight on these guys...pretty much, what I expected--a slew of 1st/2nd Rd QBs...at this point in time, mind you, before all the deep dive into them during the pre draft process.  That said, I still think this class has an abundance of potential QBs, but if two or three decide not to declare, which often happens, that number dwindles, and all of a sudden, a couple of these prospects get 'over-drafted', which is what happened to us with Pickett, and don't want to go down that road again...

That's why I'm in favor of extending Fields to be our bridge guy. That way we don't have to panic draft Kenny 2.0 *shudders*

[warfelg]

46 minutes ago, Ward4HOF said:

and that's a testament to his 68% Comp %, but I'd be interested to know what his drop rate was for the Raiders and the Cowboys games, the games with his lowest Comp%; I'm willing to bet it's a lot higher than 3.9% dropped.  And our #1 WR, his drop rate is 4.5% this season, and while I don't have access to all the advanced NFL metrics, I'm fairly certain that not only was his drop rate higher this past week, which, if being generous, it would be 2 of 8 targets dropped, but it was higher in the Dallas game, as well.  

2 drops as a team in the Dallas game. 4 bad throws. You can’t really do percentage on single games because it’s not really equitable in that way.

Looking at it week by week:
ATL 0 drops, 4 bad throws

DEN 0 drops, 4 bad throws

LAC 2 drops, 3 bad throws

IND 2 drops, 3 bad throws

LV 1 drop, 5 bad throws

So in the Raiders/Cowboys games, 29/51 with 3 drops and 9 bad throws. 5.8% drop, 17.6% bad throws. Also in those two games his comp% was 56.8%. Even if those three drops are completions it only takes him to 62.7% which is still under what he was doing, so the struggles aren’t purely on drops like this frames it.

FWIW the last two weeks combined he had 15 targets. Even if all 3 credited drops were the last two weeks, it’s not making a huge difference. Najee interestingly is only 1 point behind Pickens in drop rate, and ConHey has 2 drops, yet Pickens is shouldering the blame for this. And as a team we’re 15th best catch rate (3.7%), so at the average; and T-11 in total drops (6).

Additionally he’s had 6 turnover worthy plays on the year, 5 of them happening in the Cowboys and Raiders games. What was interesting here (at least to me) was he was hit only 1 time in those two games while throwing, only threw the ball away 1 time in each game. So it’s not like we can blame these turnover worthy plays on all getting hit while throwing.

Basically - the dropped passes don’t do a ton to help make his stats much better.

1 hour ago, Ward4HOF said:

I'm not going to quote everything you said, in your post, and I actually agree with a lot of your points, but IMO, starting Wilson for the Jets game is the wrong choice, especially when we've shown we can win with him at the helm (don't confuse that with because of his play, just that it hasn't been bad enough to bench him).  I get the fumbles, etc, but he still has a better chance of avoiding sacks with his legs, especially when we are only starting 2 of 5 of our intended starting OL, against one of the best Defensive fronts in the NFL.  

 

I think the Jets game is a 6 in one hand half a dozen in the other situation. 

The Jets have been bad at containing the mobile QB’s this year….but they are also down their CB2, NCB, and have been very suspect to the passing game. So starting Fields might mean you are relying a lot on his legs, but with Wilson you can potentially beat them through the air.

Also - their defensive front stats are really misleading. They are not good against the run this year and of Will McDonald’s 7 sacks, 4 of them have been unblocked situations and his strip sack was Will Levis doing the terrible upside down roll the ball on the ground play. They really racked up stats against the Patriots (terrible) and Broncos (raining so much Bo Nix could barely throw the ball). Then their two big turnover games were against Darnold and Levis.

[jebrick]

26 minutes ago, Ward4HOF said:

Thanks for the insight on these guys...pretty much, what I expected--a slew of 1st/2nd Rd QBs...at this point in time, mind you, before all the deep dive into them during the pre draft process.  That said, I still think this class has an abundance of potential QBs, but if two or three decide not to declare, which often happens, that number dwindles, and all of a sudden, a couple of these prospects get 'over-drafted', which is what happened to us with Pickett, and don't want to go down that road again...

I think Nussmeier SHOULD stay in school ( along with Moss and Allar) but he might come out.

I think over drafting is the over valuation in QBs and teams not willing to take time to train their college QBs to be NFL QBs.  For example, Levis went right were he should have if you think ( like i did) that he compares to Brett Farve but Penix went too high.

Edited 21 hours ago by jebrick

[warfelg]

Just something to think about. 
 

CAIII was a guy I was low on but he’s been doing his part. And it’s kinda frustrating that he isn’t getting to show it in the stat line. 

Edited 21 hours ago by warfelg

[warfelg]

 

[jebrick]

19 minutes ago, warfelg said:

Just something to think about. 
 

CAIII was a guy I was low on but he’s been doing his part. And it’s kinda frustrating that he isn’t getting to show it in the stat line. 

Can't believe Fields has not ben coached up on his reads when seeing a cover 3