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Aside from not getting a QB, my nearly perfect mock simulation


Magnus-Viktor

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I decided to do another mock, with more thinking involved this time.  

First off, I'm assuming Mike Mitchell is toast.  You can save 6.4 mill by cutting him.  

I also don't see how you can not re-sign Bell.  He's simply too good and the focal point of an offense, which is the strength of this team, which is clearly in a win-now window due to Ben considering retirement and Brown being 30 next season.  

I think you have to keep Vance McDonald because you don't know how the draft will unfold, but perhaps restructure him so instead of hitting for around 5 mill the next 2 seasons, you extend him and spread that out over 5 years.  We all saw yesterday how much of an impact he makes on the entire offense when he's healthy.  He's clearly the most dynamic TE on the roster by a mile. 

Draft:

I used first pick again, with a few trades.  

*There were a lot of guys available at 30 that I liked, so I took a chance and traded back with Denver from 1-30 for picks 2-6 and 3-6, and still got my #1 guy*

2-6 (from Broncos).  Sam Hubbard, OLB, Ohio State B+ - you all know that I love Hubbard and view him as TJ Watt 2.0.  Those 2 guys, along with Christian McCaffrey and Josey Jewell, were the guys I watched the most last year, and I continued to watch Hubbard & Jewell quite a bit this year as well.  I think with Hubbard, you'd want him to drop 10 pounds or so to improve his speed if playing LB instead of DE, and then he'd be a monster that can do everything.  The most impressive traits he has are simply his intelligence/discipline in executing team defense rather than sack hunting, and how he redirects in space to tackle scrambling QBs or making any other tackle in space.  He has great body control.  6'5" 265, what's not to like?

*Again, there were multiple guys available that I liked, so I traded back 4 spots with the Giants and still got my #1 guy -- 2-30 for 3-2 and 4-2*

3-2 (from Giants).  Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State A- - I had to take him here, even though McDonald was retained.  Jesse James will be a FA following the '18 season, and I like the guy, but in the end he's "just a guy".  Xavier Grimble is an ERFA next season & hasn't done much either (15 career catches).  I think that Goedert is Vance McDonald, with much much much better hands.  He has amazing hands.  

3-6 (from Broncos).  Josey Jewell, ILB, Iowa A - This is my other favorite guy in college football the last 2 years.  I love the way The Outlaw Josey Jewell plays (yes, he is actually named after The Outlaw Josey Wales).  He is really smart and instinctive, but unlike Matakevich, Jewell has much more range and athleticism.  A turkey farmer from Iowa, he lives and breathes football.  

3-30.  Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado A+ - My favorite CB in this year's draft.  I also really like Josh Jackson from Iowa (the bi-product of tuning in to watch The Outlaw play this year....this #15 just kept making plays).  Oliver is 6'1" 195 with track speed and smooth corner skills.  Also a return man.  We all saw how much need there was for improved corner depth when Haden was out.  I'm not very enamored with any DB on the roster aside from Haden.  I considered Oliver at the previous 4 picks, but thought he was most likely to be around later (in this sim, not in real life....he'll go before Goedert and Jewell but not Hubbard IMO) and luckily he was.

4-2 (from Giants).  Parris Campbell, WR/KR, Ohio State A+ - One of my favorite things to look for on draft day is a guy like this:  talented, but with pure trash at QB, so his numbers are seriously deflated and thus his draft stock.  That's what happens with too many college teams like the Buckeyes.  They get some scrub that should be playing WR instead of QB in there, and they waste all the talent around them as a result.  A former RB, at 6'1" 208, he has some positional versatility in case Bell isn't retained or gets hurt.  He could be the receiving back to go with Conner as the power back.  Bottom line?  His potential is just way too high to pass up at this point, and you all know I have zero faith in the depth of the Steelers' WR corp.  This also clears the way for letting Bryant walk as a FA following the season.  He also averaged 36.6 yards per kick return, and I'm sorry, but the returners for the Steelers this year have sucked.  That alone makes him worth drafting.

5-7.  Quadree Henderson, KR, Pitt A - A little guy who could be a slot receiver and a real return man.  He had 2 PR TDs this year and 1 PR TD last year.  Last year he had 3 KR TDs and 3 years ago he had 1 KR TD.  So that's 7 career return TDs.  I'll take it.  

5-30.  Porter Gustin, OLB, USC B - It was getting to be pretty slim pickings here, and I wanted another pass rusher.  I'm afraid this guy might be another #56 for us though.  Anthony Chickillo 2.0.  Or LaMarr Woodley, with the injuries.  He had quite a few of them.  But I did see him flash potential when healthy.  He'll have to be at least as productive as Dupree or Chickillo at any rate.  Luckily, he's a backup initially, with Watt and Hubbard the starters.  

7.  Greg Stroman, KR/CB, Virginia Tech B+ - 6' 181 lbs, 4.40 speed athlete, that has 4 career punt returns for TDs.  He was especially good this season where he averaged 11.3 yards per return and had 2 PR TDs.  He also had 4 INTs at CB this year and 9 for his career.  Earlier in his career he played WR and had a few catches and a few carries.  In total, he has 4 PR TDs, 1 INT TD and 1 FR TD.  He knows how to score with the ball in his hands.  

UDFA:  Akrum Wadley, RB, Iowa - A speedster to give the Steelers a little more wiggle in case Bell goes down again.  I'd let Toussaint walk and not even give him a tender as an RFA.  I can't stand that guy.  

UDFA:  Phillip Lindsay, RB, Colorado - Only 5'8" 190, but he runs really hard and violently, with some pretty good speed as well.  Versatile player.  

UDFA:  Jaleel Scott, WR, New Mexico State - This dude looks like a monster playing against Georgia Southern.  6'5" 215 with 4.52 speed.  Looks like he had good hands and runs decent routes and goes up for the ball well.  Potential replacement for Bryant if he isn't retained following the '18 season.

As you can see, I drafted a total of 4 guys that were return men in college.  I hate seeing Antonio Brown back there returning punts because he's too valuable to risk injury on such things, and our depth at WR leaves a lot to be desired.  I'm also very unimpressed with what I see out of all the other returners on the roster.  Whenever you have scrubs like Toussaint returning kicks, you know you have serious problems with talent at those positions.  Rogers is nothing special and he's an RFA that I probably wouldn't bother resigning if any of Campbell, Henderson or Stroman worked out.  

I didn't get the S that I wanted, but one will have to be added in FA, or just promote a backup out of necessity due to cap space limitations making Mitchell a cap casualty.  I'm just not impressed at all with this year's safety class (outside of the guys I expect to be long gone).  The other thing I didn't manage to address was the OL.  Perhaps BJ Finney is an adequate replacement for Ramon Foster, although Foster is under contract through '18 anyway so it's not an immediate need.  

I also didn't get a QB of the future, so we'd either have to roll with Landry Jones for another year as a backup, or find someone else.  Dobbs isn't the answer.  

You can also save a lot of money by getting rid of guys like Arthur Moats (FA so 2.88 mill coming off the books), William Gay (Only penalized 633k to get rid of his 2.38 mill contract), JJ Wilcox (save the entire 3.125 mill), Landry Jones (save 1.9 mill of his 2.2 mill contract), DHB (save 1.2 of 1.33 mill), Justin Hunter (FA, save 855k), Coty Sensabaugh (save 1.4 of 1.6 mill), etc.  That's a way to clear up around 11.5 mill for Bell & a possible S in FA.  Jewel replaces Moats.  Oliver replaces Gay. Campbell replaces Hunter.  Henderson replaces DHB.  Anyone can replace Wilcox & anyone can replace Landry......even me, and my knees are shot, not to mention I'll be 40 before next season lol.  

 

Depth Chart:

QB:  Ben Roethlisberger, FA, Joshua Dobbs
RB:  LeVeon Bell, James Conner, Terrell Watson, Phillip Lindsay UDFA, Akrum Wadley UDFA,
FB:  Roosevelt Nix
WR:  Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Martavis Bryant, Parris Campbell 4, Eli Rogers, Quadree Henderson 5, Jaleel Scott UDFA
TE:  Dallas Goedert 3, Vance McDonald, Jesse James
LT:  Alejandro Villanueva, Jerald Hawkins
LG:  Ramon Foster, BJ Finney
C:  Maurkice Pouncey, BJ Finney
RG:  David DeCastro, Matt Feiler
RT:  Marcus Gilbert, Chris Hubbard

DE:  Cameron Heyward, LT Walton
NT:  Javon Hargrave, Daniel McCullers
DE:  Stephon Tuitt, Tyson Alualu
OLB:  Sam Hubbard 2, Bud Dupree, Keion Adams
ILB:  Josey Jewell 3, LJ Fort
ILB:  Ryan Shazier, Vince Williams, Tyler Matakevich
OLB:  TJ Watt, Porter Gustin 5, Anthony Chickillo
CB:  Joe Haden, Artie Burns
FS:  Robert Golden, FA
SS:  Sean Davis, Jordan Dangerfield
CB:  Isaiah Oliver 3, Cameron Sutton, Brian Allen
Nickel:  Mike Hilton, Greg Stroman 7

KR/PR:  Greg Stroman, Quadree Henderson

K:  Chris Boswell

P:  Jordan Berry

 

 

 

Just for the heck of it, I did another sim where I took a QB in 1 & no trades.  I'd consider moving Iman Marshall to S.  


Round 1 Pick 30: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming (A+)
Round 2 Pick 30: Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa (A)
Round 3 Pick 30: Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State (A+)
Round 5 Pick 7: Porter Gustin, OLB, Southern California (B-)
Round 5 Pick 30: Iman Marshall, CB, Southern California (B) 
Round 7 Pick 30: Jaleel Scott, WR, New Mexico State (B+)

UDFA:  Greg Stroman, CB/KR
UDFA:  Phillip Lindsay, RB

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Hubbard isn't someone that excites me.  No way would he be a 34 OLB.  He might be best as an inside rotational rusher.

Matakevich is on the same level as Jewell.  Pass.

The rest I need to watch more of.  Mike Tomlin dislikes smaller RBs.  Maybe its pass pro issues are because of his burn record but I'm not projecting anyone under 5'10 and 215 for the Steelers at RB.

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2 hours ago, Armsteeld2 said:

Hubbard isn't someone that excites me.  No way would he be a 34 OLB.  He might be best as an inside rotational rusher.

Matakevich is on the same level as Jewell.  Pass.

The rest I need to watch more of.  Mike Tomlin dislikes smaller RBs.  Maybe its pass pro issues are because of his burn record but I'm not projecting anyone under 5'10 and 215 for the Steelers at RB.

 

Well I love Hubbard.  He's TJ Watt 2.0.  We all see how good he is here.  Are you saying you think of him as a subpackage interior DL pass rusher?  

Matakevich is not Jewell.  Jewell is a lot more athletic and just plain old better.  

They do tend to draft big RBs.  The 3 I kept on the DC are all pretty damn big.  I was just looking at them as situational scat backs and UDFA types to develop.  Lindsay used to be a return man.  I don't think I recall ever seeing Wadley return anything though.  

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3 hours ago, Armsteeld2 said:

Hubbard isn't someone that excites me.

Have to agree.  Sorry Magnus, I just don't see him as another Watt.  Looks like a Big 10 guy that's a bruiser in college but doens't have the elite quickness and athleticism to be a star at the NFL level.  (hips are bit stiff for my taste)  Maybe, as you suggest, losing 10-15 lbs. would improve that.  

I will just say "Not for us." He might fit another team better. 

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2 hours ago, JLambert58 said:

Have to agree.  Sorry Magnus, I just don't see him as another Watt.  Looks like a Big 10 guy that's a bruiser in college but doens't have the elite quickness and athleticism to be a star at the NFL level.  (hips are bit stiff for my taste)  Maybe, as you suggest, losing 10-15 lbs. would improve that.  

I will just say "Not for us." He might fit another team better. 

It will be interesting to see how he pans out, that's for sure.  He hasn't dominated as I expected him to, which is a good thing if you want him so you can get him later instead of top 10 and out or reach as he would be if he'd played up to his talent.  The real gem on that team is Nick Bosa.  Man that dude is a monster.  

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Im assuming youre ignoring salary cap if you have us keeping both McDonald and Bell.     

Bell is going to make an insane amount on the open market.   He has already shown he isnt going to give us any kind of discount.   The chances of us keeping him are really slim to none.

McDonald has a nearly $5m cap hit in 2018,   No chance we keep him unless he takes a pay cut, which he very well might, but I could see us cutting him and then trying to resign him for less.

Overall, I dont care for this mock.   The positions are okay I guess....but I dont like the players I do know   And you ignore safety which is clearly our biggest defensive need IMO.   

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22 minutes ago, FourThreeMafia said:

Im assuming youre ignoring salary cap if you have us keeping both McDonald and Bell.     

Bell is going to make an insane amount on the open market.   He has already shown he isnt going to give us any kind of discount.   The chances of us keeping him are really slim to none.

McDonald has a nearly $5m cap hit in 2018,   No chance we keep him unless he takes a pay cut, which he very well might, but I could see us cutting him and then trying to resign him for less.

Overall, I dont care for this mock.   The positions are okay I guess....but I dont like the players I do know   And you ignore safety which is clearly our biggest defensive need IMO.   

 

No Actually I paid a fair amount of attention to the salary cap.  Enough to know that Bell is going to count less against the cap next year than this, where he's making 12.12 mill.  So even if he signed a deal where he averaged 12 mill, it would typically start out lower and the cap # would get bigger as time went by, when his guaranteed money would be coming down as well.  

I also mentioned that I see McDonald taking a pay cut, in essence, by taking his 10 mill over the next 2 years,  none guaranteed, and getting say 10 to 15 mill over 5 years, with some signing bonus and guaranteed money thrown in.  Lets be real here, he's a guy that's coming off a 13 catch 183 yard, 1 TD season and for his 5 year career has netted a total of 77 catches, 1049 yards and 8 TDs.  He's not going to break the bank.  10 mill over 5 is probably what his market should be closer to.  

Then I mentioned how you'd have around 12 mill coming off the books by guys hitting FA, or cap casualties like Mike Mitchell.  Of course, I hadn't accounted for Ben's cap hit going up by 5 mill or Haden's going up by 8.75.  That's a really unusual contract for Haden.  

You are absolutely right in that I ignored S, which is probably the biggest need.  If the value isn't there, it isn't there.  I'm not drafting a S just for the heck of it.  Maybe between now and draft day I'll find some more safeties that I like, or some will actually fall.  I wish I knew what Jordan Whitehead's deal is.  He is available in 5 in these sims now.  

Your Picks:
Round 2 Pick 2 (NYG): Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State (B+)
Round 2 Pick 30: Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State (B+)
Round 3 Pick 30: Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado (A+)
Round 4 Pick 2 (NYG): Parris Campbell, WR, Ohio State (A+)
Round 4 Pick 23 (PHI): Clayton Thorson, QB, Northwestern (A+)
Round 5 Pick 7: Jordan Whitehead, FS, Pittsburgh (A-)
Round 5 Pick 30: Sony Michel, RB, Georgia (A)
Round 7 Pick 30: Greg Stroman, CB, Virginia Tech (B+)

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25 minutes ago, Magnus-Viktor said:

No Actually I paid a fair amount of attention to the salary cap.  Enough to know that Bell is going to count less against the cap next year than this, where he's making 12.12 mill.  So even if he signed a deal where he averaged 12 mill, it would typically start out lower and the cap # would get bigger as time went by, when his guaranteed money would be coming down as well. 

???

You do realize Bell turned down a contract reportedly offering him more than what he is currently making on the franchise tag, right?

You also realize that, even without Bell currently counting against our currently 2018 cap, we are over the projected 2018 cap, right?   

Even if we cut Haden, Mitchell, Wilcox. and McDonald and THEN restructure a few players contracts, it would still be very difficult to sign FAs to fill out our roster, save enough to sign drafted players AND sign LeVeon to the likely $15m per year deal he seemingly wants.

IMO, only way we retain Bell is if Ben retires right after the season ends.....which I dont see unless we win the Superbowl...and even then Im not positive.   

 

Quote

I also mentioned that I see McDonald taking a pay cut, in essence, by taking his 10 mill over the next 2 years,  none guaranteed, and getting say 10 to 15 mill over 5 years, with some signing bonus and guaranteed money thrown in.  Lets be real here, he's a guy that's coming off a 13 catch 183 yard, 1 TD season and for his 5 year career has netted a total of 77 catches, 1049 yards and 8 TDs.  He's not going to break the bank.  10 mill over 5 is probably what his market should be closer to.  

If we can retain him for a reasonable price, sure.   Just saying that, at his current cap hit,  he isnt worth it, nor is it feasible for us to keep him at anywhere near that price and still retain Bell.

Quote

Then I mentioned how you'd have around 12 mill coming off the books by guys hitting FA, or cap casualties like Mike Mitchell.  Of course, I hadn't accounted for Ben's cap hit going up by 5 mill or Haden's going up by 8.75.  That's a really unusual contract for Haden.  

Again, even with that, we are currently about $2m over the projected salary cap.

Several cuts can be made.

Quote

You are absolutely right in that I ignored S, which is probably the biggest need.  If the value isn't there, it isn't there.  I'm not drafting a S just for the heck of it.  Maybe between now and draft day I'll find some more safeties that I like, or some will actually fall.  I wish I knew what Jordan Whitehead's deal is.  He is available in 5 in these sims now.  

Your Picks:
Round 2 Pick 2 (NYG): Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State (B+)
Round 2 Pick 30: Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State (B+)
Round 3 Pick 30: Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado (A+)
Round 4 Pick 2 (NYG): Parris Campbell, WR, Ohio State (A+)
Round 4 Pick 23 (PHI): Clayton Thorson, QB, Northwestern (A+)
Round 5 Pick 7: Jordan Whitehead, FS, Pittsburgh (A-)
Round 5 Pick 30: Sony Michel, RB, Georgia (A)
Round 7 Pick 30: Greg Stroman, CB, Virginia Tech (B+)

I dont advocate reaching for needs either, but there is absolutely no way in hell we can go into next season with the safety depth chart you posted....

Quote

FS:  Robert Golden, FA
SS:  Sean Davis, Jordan Dangerfield

Thats like.....ungodly bad.    Sean Davis is our best safety and he is a mediocre backup caliber player at best.    So many teams need safety help so I dont foresee addressing it in the way it needs to be addressed, but they absolutely need to try something else next year.    Sean Davis is going to start next year and Ive accepted that, but if they accept Golden being the starter next year, that would be about as bad as them going into the season several years ago, believing that Jonathan Scott could be a quality starter at LT.    

Bottom line....I dont know how and I dont care how, but they absolutely need to address safety at some point....and I dont mean depth.   They need at least one new starter next year thats not currently on the roster.    

 

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7 hours ago, FourThreeMafia said:

???

You do realize Bell turned down a contract reportedly offering him more than what he is currently making on the franchise tag, right?

You also realize that, even without Bell currently counting against our currently 2018 cap, we are over the projected 2018 cap, right?   

Even if we cut Haden, Mitchell, Wilcox. and McDonald and THEN restructure a few players contracts, it would still be very difficult to sign FAs to fill out our roster, save enough to sign drafted players AND sign LeVeon to the likely $15m per year deal he seemingly wants.

IMO, only way we retain Bell is if Ben retires right after the season ends.....which I dont see unless we win the Superbowl...and even then Im not positive.   

And you do realize that when players sign long term contracts, even if the average per year goes up, the first year is usually smaller.  That's my point.  It works that way pretty much 100% of the time from what I've seen.  So if Bell gets his 15 mill average, he probably gets 12 the first year and 18 the last year, for an average of 15.  Bottom line:  his cap hit didn't go up.  Btw, he did NOT turn down a contract making more than he is on the franchise tag.  He's making 12.12 on the tag.  The offer he rejected was averaging 12 over the life of it.  He would've made 30 over the first 2 years and 42 over the first 3 years, so they were front loading it, but the average was 12.  So I guess it depends on how you interpret it being "more".  Up front?  yes.  Overall?  no.  

If we can retain him for a reasonable price, sure.   Just saying that, at his current cap hit,  he isnt worth it, nor is it feasible for us to keep him at anywhere near that price and still retain Bell.

Again, even with that, we are currently about $2m over the projected salary cap.

Several cuts can be made.

Agreed, McDonald isn't worth nearly what he's being paid.  I clearly illustrated that.  Again, in my scenario his cap hit would be reduced by 3 mill probably.  Even if you backload the hell out of his contract to give him more incentive to sign, as long as it has minimal guaranteed money at that time, who cares?  It's win-now.  Maybe he is the most obvious cap casualty, aside from Mitchell, but then IMO you go into the draft forced to target a TE.  Luckily, this is a good draft for a TE in my opinion.  I honestly didn't expect to pick up Goedert in 3, but he was there so I took him.  

I dont advocate reaching for needs either, but there is absolutely no way in hell we can go into next season with the safety depth chart you posted....

Thats like.....ungodly bad.    Sean Davis is our best safety and he is a mediocre backup caliber player at best.    So many teams need safety help so I dont foresee addressing it in the way it needs to be addressed, but they absolutely need to try something else next year.    Sean Davis is going to start next year and Ive accepted that, but if they accept Golden being the starter next year, that would be about as bad as them going into the season several years ago, believing that Jonathan Scott could be a quality starter at LT.    

Bottom line....I dont know how and I dont care how, but they absolutely need to address safety at some point....and I dont mean depth.   They need at least one new starter next year thats not currently on the roster.    

 

Well, the thing here is I believe if you don't luck into a safety, you're not going to get one this year.  It looks like a bad draft class to me.  I know some of you like the Penn State guy, but I don't, at all.  He's too much like Mitchell for me.  I'm looking for a cover guy.  Basically Whitehead is more my style, but he's too small and too much of a suspension risk to take early.  Maybe I'll stumble across a S that is a cover guy FS, instead of a thumper, that will be available outside of the top 10, but so far I haven't seen one.  Keep in mind here, I've been saying for YEARS that we needed to upgrade safety.  And yes, I turned around and totally neglected it for now.  

I think the main issue you and I had here was I looked at the net deductions from the salary cap and the net additions, while not looking into having to cut even more from the cap due to being projected to be over it.  I didn't get that far into it, because as I said before, I didn't notice at first that guys like Big Ben and Haden had their cap numbers spike by almost 14 mill between the 2 of them.  A situation like that is exactly why I wanted Christian McCaffrey so bad last season.  Then you aren't going to waste all your cap space on Bell.  McCaffrey and Conner could do Bell's job just fine, just as McCaffrey and Stewart are doing in Carolina now.  Perhaps the right way to do it is draft another RB in 2-3 to pair with Conner and let Bell walk?  But I really don't see how they can do that when it's clearly win-now mode and Bell is one of the best, if not THE best, player in the league.  Down Town Brown is one of his main competitors for that honor.  Anyway, that's my thought process on it.  

The last draft I did was probably pretty much ideal.  Got a S in Whitehead, still got the OLB and CB that I covet so much.  Still got the TE and WR as well, plus a better developmental project at QB (I liked Thorsen a lot last year.  I didn't like him at all this year.  That's what a difference players like the WR Carr around him made I guess?).  The thing I don't like about it is no ILB.  

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8 hours ago, FourThreeMafia said:

???

You do realize Bell turned down a contract reportedly offering him more than what he is currently making on the franchise tag, right?

You also realize that, even without Bell currently counting against our currently 2018 cap, we are over the projected 2018 cap, right?   

Even if we cut Haden, Mitchell, Wilcox. and McDonald and THEN restructure a few players contracts, it would still be very difficult to sign FAs to fill out our roster, save enough to sign drafted players AND sign LeVeon to the likely $15m per year deal he seemingly wants.

IMO, only way we retain Bell is if Ben retires right after the season ends.....which I dont see unless we win the Superbowl...and even then Im not positive.   

 

If we can retain him for a reasonable price, sure.   Just saying that, at his current cap hit,  he isnt worth it, nor is it feasible for us to keep him at anywhere near that price and still retain Bell.

 

I agree. Bell wants to 'reset' the RB market in the NFL; we gave him an opportunity to do just that by offering him a contract well above market value, and he turned us down.  Wasn't it some ungodly amount like $12M per year for 5 years, or something??

And I don't know about you, but as far as I'm concerned, he missed his opportunity when he was the best RB in the NFL; he's simply no longer holds that title. IMO, he's currently 3rd, and the argument could be made that he's as low as 6th.

What is this blasphemy, you say, 'you' wonder? (not you, 43M, 'you' as in fellow Steeler posters)

Well, I'd say, without a doubt, both Ezekial Elliott and Gurley are 1 and 2, in no particular order. Elliott has averaged almost 105yds/gm rushing since his entrance into the NFL and another 25 receiving, with 25 TDs in, well, 24 games.  Gurley has been in 15 games, and already has almost 2100 ttl yds and 19 TDs this season. So yeah...1 & 2.

Working from #5 up, then you have Fournette, with as many Rushing TDs in 3 less games, nearly as many yds/gm rushing, but NOT with 3 Pro Bowl OL leading the way for him; in fact, it's widely known that the Jags might have one of the worst OLs in the business. He's debatable, but he's looking awfully good. Next, at #4, and this will surely get a 'rise' out of some, but the fact remains that the last two seasons, Mark Ingram has looked VERY good, in a pass happy offense. Nearing 1100 yds rushing, after nearly 1400 Ttl yds and 10 TDs last year, he's close to 1500 Ttl yds, 12 Rushing TDs, but the biggie...he's averaging over 5 yds per rush the last two years. Bell is barely managing 4 yds/rush, again, behind 3 Pro Bowl OL. You may say 'well, they aren't that great', but DD and Pouncey have ALWAYS been strong run blockers, and DD is widely considered the BEST OG in the NFL this season.

And 3rd, is, yes, another rookie, Kareem Hunt.  His ho-hum equal yds rushing with Le'Veon, yet 200 yds less Receiving, but only 1 Ttl TD less...all while owning a .8yds/rush advantage over Bell has me placing him toe-to-toe with the 'former champ'.

So depending how you look at it, and if one were to lay a lot of weight on yds/rush, and the fact that Bell is running behind 3 Pro Bowl OL, some may make the argument that he is doing 'less' with 'more'.

All this to say...NO...I am NOT in favor of paying him $12M per year...and definitely not higher than that, when there are 5 other RBs in the NFL that are comparable...maybe only 3 or 4...depends on what you think. I didn't even bring up McCoy or Peterson (Age) but McCoy had a heck of a season. Then there is Howard and Gordon, who aren't too far back, tbh, and that makes 6 RBs on their 1st Contract that are 'close enough' to delivering what Bell does that I'm fine with paying $12M LESS per year, for 4 years, so we can sign other talent.

AB is undoubtedly the #1 WR in the league. It will have taken 2 x 170yd games from two WRs to catch up to him in the last week of the season...AFTER they already had a week to make a move towards him. It took Landry and Fitz a full week to 'catch' him in receptions, but Landry doesn;t even average 9 yds a Reception, and Fitz is below 11...clearly possession type WRs...NOT #1 types like AB.  And AB's closest competitor, as was described by another non-Steeler poster on the Comparison forum, is allergic to the end-zone, and has just 1/3 of AB's TDs.  Well, I guess I shouldn't say 'closest'; clearly, that baton has been passed onto Hopkins now. But point is, AB?  Yeah, I pay him $12M.  Bell?  Why??...He's not even the best at his position in the NFL...  

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Definitely disagree there.  Bell is still far and away the best RB, because of his contributions as a blocker and receiver.  But if you're in cap hell you might not have any choice but to let him walk and then waste a premium pick on a replacement.  Ideally you'd be able to tag and trade him for a 1+.  That would help mitigate the loss at RB by increasing talent elsewhere immediately instead of waiting for a 3rd comp in '19.

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And you do realize that when players sign long term contracts, even if the average per year goes up, the first year is usually smaller.  That's my point.  It works that way pretty much 100% of the time from what I've seen.  So if Bell gets his 15 mill average, he probably gets 12 the first year and 18 the last year, for an average of 15.  Bottom line:  his cap hit didn't go up.  Btw, he did NOT turn down a contract making more than he is on the franchise tag.  He's making 12.12 on the tag.  The offer he rejected was averaging 12 over the life of it.  He would've made 30 over the first 2 years and 42 over the first 3 years, so they were front loading it, but the average was 12.  So I guess it depends on how you interpret it being "more".  Up front?  yes.  Overall?  no.  

First of all, youre arguing chump change.     The most you could argue is that he turned down a contract offering him THE SAME as the franchise tag is currently paying him.   Either way, he turned down a deal because he thinks he deserves more....rumored to be about $15m a year, and given how good he is in every phase of the game, he will probably get it from someone.

Secondly, even if he is making less his first year, its not going to be something extremely low.   Even if he makes $10m in his first year, its going to be extremely hard and perhaps not even possible to do everything that needs to be done to fill the roster, pay for our draft picks ON TOP OF paying Bell even $10m.

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27 minutes ago, FourThreeMafia said:

First of all, youre arguing chump change.     The most you could argue is that he turned down a contract offering him THE SAME as the franchise tag is currently paying him.   Either way, he turned down a deal because he thinks he deserves more....rumored to be about $15m a year, and given how good he is in every phase of the game, he will probably get it from someone.

Secondly, even if he is making less his first year, its not going to be something extremely low.   Even if he makes $10m in his first year, its going to be extremely hard and perhaps not even possible to do everything that needs to be done to fill the roster, pay for our draft picks ON TOP OF paying Bell even $10m.

 

Fair enough.  Like I said, I didn't completely analyze the salary cap, and the huge jumps in Ben's and Haden's contracts threw off the calculations I did to make it work for 2018 only.  That is why I emphasized the first year(s) cap hits from a long term deal for him and anyone else.  When Ben comes off the books, cap space miraculously appears, as long as he is replaced with a guy on a rookie contract.  I didn't get into looking into guys that could be restructured either.  I just looked at guys that could/should be cut, which typically works as long as you don't have the big jumps in existing contracts like Ben and Haden have.  

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