PLAYOFSSSSSSSSS: #3 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ #6 BUFFALO BILLS: SUNDAY 1 PM EST

[TitanLegend]

1 hour ago, iPwn said:

If Shady isn’t 100%, I don’t know how this Bills team scores more than 6 points.

If PFF's PBE is any indication, Buffalo's o-line is really good at pass blocking(2nd best PBE in the NFL, 83. Slightly better than ours at 82.3). The one way to have success against Jacksonville's defense is to nullify the pass rush, because as good as Bouye, Ramsey and Colvin are, the rules just favor WRs faaaaaaaaaar too much for them to not allow someone to get open if the pass rush doesn't get home. Titans showed this blueprint twice in the form of pass blocking(Mariota running in to sacks on Sunday nonwithstanding), SF showed it in the form of quick release by Jimmy G.

So if Tyrod is competent he should have his chances(again assuming PFF's PBE accurately places Buffalo's o-line, I haven't watched a Buffalo game this year). That being said no LeSean McCoy for Buffalo(or a gimpy one) really kills their chances, which I'm not sure I'd favor them anyway if he was healthy, but they potentially do have the recipe to have some success vs your D.

[Kmart128]

12 hours ago, iPwn said:

Good teams shouldn’t have horrific 3 game stretches in the middle of a playoff chase... We’re talking nearly 1/5 of all their games.

We we're figuring out how to have play without Dareus... And we had a LBer come off injury that we had to start but was no where near as good as he was before the injury. No Dareus and Humbers return really killed our run defense for that 3 game stretch. It was to the Jets, Saints, and Chargers. Our run defense after gave up 638 yards and the ground and 11 TDs on the ground. Teams were averaging 212 yards and almost 4 TDs on the ground. But we figured it out... Started Matt Milano and added some big NTs to play instead of having 4 UTs on the roster.

But I think you missed his point. He was saying that we were a good team rather than the 3 game stretch isn't indicative of what team we are and it made us look way worse than we are. Without that 3 game stretch we are +23.

We know who we are... We are a team that wins close games. We are never gonna be a team that blows a team out. But I don't think it's fair to dock a team for their style of play when it earned them a post season trip. Wins are the most important thing in game of football and Jacksonville only has one more than the Bills... Oh and currently Jacksonville has the easiest schedule in the entire NFL.

[pwny]

1 minute ago, marshawn lynch said:

But I don't think it's fair to dock a team for their style of play when it earned them a post season trip. Wins are the most important thing in game of football

Sure. Absolutely. But how those teams win tend to give a better picture of how they will perform in the future.

Close wins can often time be more indicative of lucky bounces or one or two plays going a team’s way more so than skill. In fact, over longer periods of time, teams always regress to the mean and average about .500 in close game. That’s why there’s so much turnover from year to year in the playoffs. 6 in 6 out is usually always predicated on which teams got lucky in those game vs the teams that didn’t. And those teams rarely are ever able to replicate that success over longer periods of time than one season. 

8 minutes ago, marshawn lynch said:

Jacksonville only has one more than the Bills...

Comparing a team that lost two games after completely locking up everything they could to the Bills isn’t exactly a true comparison, and you know that.

[Kmart128]

1 hour ago, iPwn said:

Sure. Absolutely. But how those teams win tend to give a better picture of how they will perform in the future.

Close wins can often time be more indicative of lucky bounces or one or two plays going a team’s way more so than skill. In fact, over longer periods of time, teams always regress to the mean and average about .500 in close game. That’s why there’s so much turnover from year to year in the playoffs. 6 in 6 out is usually always predicated on which teams got lucky in those game vs the teams that didn’t. And those teams rarely are ever able to replicate that success over longer periods of time than one season. 

Comparing a team that lost two games after completely locking up everything they could to the Bills isn’t exactly a true comparison, and you know that.

Our close wins weren't lucky bounces. Actually if anything the bounces went the other way. Just look at the Carolina game. We should have won that. The reason for our close wins was we would gain a lead and go into conservative mode. Get a lead to where we are comfortable. Play conservative and have the other team just run out of time. Did it to Dolphins twice, Falcons, Chiefs, Jets, and Broncos. That is our game smart football... Not trying to be something we are not by trying to get into a shoot out.

And you guys didn't lock everything up... 2-3 weeks ago you guys had a shot at a bye week so let's act like you guys had nothing to play for. And the fact that all your players and coaches were talking about giving it your all the last week. You had incentive to knock a division rival out of the playoffs. That is a great feeling. I know you would rather have players healthy for the playoffs but the incentives we're still there to play well.

Either way I'm expecting a lot of turnovers from these two defenses. Both are amazing at creating turnovers. May come down to who takes care of the football better. Right now I trust Tyrod to not turn the football over more than Bortles but I still think Jacksonville's defense will force Tyrod into mistakes he doesn't normally make. I have Jacksonville winning 24 to 16

[pwny]

8 minutes ago, marshawn lynch said:

Our close wins weren't lucky bounces. Actually if anything the bounces went the other way.

Everyone says this. The data never agrees. Ever.

9 minutes ago, marshawn lynch said:

Just look at the Carolina game. We should have won that. The reason for our close wins was we would gain a lead and go into conservative mode.

So it doesn’t work?

10 minutes ago, marshawn lynch said:

And you guys didn't lock everything up... 2-3 weeks ago you guys had a shot at a bye week so let's act like you guys had nothing to play for.

After the Pats beat you in the early game, our odds of getting a bye were ~4%. Yes, it was *possible* to get a bye. But to pretend like they had a reason to go all out to win either of those games is silly.

12 minutes ago, marshawn lynch said:

And the fact that all your players and coaches were talking about giving it your all the last week.

What else were they supposed to say? “We’re going to half-*** this game and just hope we get out healthy”? No team has ever said that. They were playing situational football more than trying to get the win.

13 minutes ago, marshawn lynch said:

You had incentive to knock a division rival out of the playoffs. That is a great feeling. I know you would rather have players healthy for the playoffs but the incentives we're still there to play well.

Sure. It also meant nothing to do so. There was no reason to put full effort into everything. There was no value to winning that game that outweighed simply tuning up and being healthy for this week. Yes, they put in effort. But if you think they broke out everything they would have had they been in a must-win situation, you’re out of your mind.

[Kmart128]

13 minutes ago, iPwn said:

 

After the Pats beat you in the early game, our odds of getting a bye were ~4%. Yes, it was *possible* to get a bye. But to pretend like they had a reason to go all out to win either of those games is silly.

 

Well to be fair... The Bills chances at the playoffs we're about 8% with 2 minutes to go in the Ravens/Bengals game... You fight until you mathematically can not anymore. Those odds things are crap... Heck we were only given 38% chance to beat the Dolphins in a game they never lead. Can never trust the percentages in this sport

[.Buzz]

 

[.Buzz]

Just now, .Buzz said:

 

I'm sure he goes. Tough situation for Buffalo with him being their primary playmaker.

[.Buzz]

Going to be interesting how this affects us.

[pwny]

5 minutes ago, marshawn lynch said:

Well to be fair... The Bills chances at the playoffs we're about 8% with 2 minutes to go in the Ravens/Bengals game... You fight until you mathematically can not anymore. Those odds things are crap... Heck we were only given 38% chance to beat the Dolphins in a game they never lead. Can never trust the percentages in this sport

When it comes to actually making the playoffs, I fully agree. However, I don’t think that applies when you’re basically locked into a spot with no chance to drop down. It’s better to get some rest and keep guys healthy rather than hope you might maybe get a week off.

[.Buzz]

 

[.Buzz]

1 minute ago, .Buzz said:

 

Really hope KC can knock off Tennessee.

We just don't match up with them well. It's annoying but its true. Although if our special teams doesn't struggle THAT much I think we win that game. Our defense was damn good besides the one mistake on the screen. Not worried about that unit whatsoever going into the playoffs. 

[pwny]

10 hours ago, TitanLegend said:

Titans showed this blueprint twice in the form of pass blocking(Mariota running in to sacks on Sunday nonwithstanding), SF showed it in the form of quick release by Jimmy G.

Ehhh. I feel you beat us because of the running backs.

You scored 15 points; 6 of those came off a 66 yard screen pass. A FG was scored after gaining 8 yards. Another was scored after gaining 5 yards, none of them passing. Even your long scoring FG drive was accompanied by one pass for 8 yards. I wouldn’t say that a passing game that had a combined ~15 yards on three scoring drives is the secret to success for beating this team. 

And the first game was just wearing down the defense with those power runs.

[.Buzz]

1 minute ago, iPwn said:

Ehhh. I feel you beat us because of the running backs.

You scored 15 points; 6 of those came off a 66 yard screen pass. A FG was scored after gaining 8 yards. Another was scored after gaining 5 yards, none of them passing. Even your long scoring FG drive was accompanied by one pass for 8 yards. I wouldn’t say that a passing game that had a combined ~15 yards on three scoring drives is the secret to success for beating this team. 

And the first game was just wearing down the defense with those power runs.

Henry was held widely in check tbh besides that screen too. He averaged under 2 ypc.

It's honestly the special teams and the Cole fumble. They had a ton of possessions on our side of the field with easy FG opportunities.

I can see why the team wants to play them again tbh.

[pwny]

The secret to beating this defense has shown to be to get them into off coverage and attack the holes in the coverage. That’s it. The hope I’m holding out for is that they just didn’t want to show their hand in an effectively meaningless game against the 49ers and that they’re going to have all sorts of deceptively coverages that Dennison, Reid, Haley and Belichick aren’t prepared to see from this defense come next week.

Given how much the staff is in contact with Coughlin, and given how much Coughlin has been willing to dial up crazy looks in big playoff games, I think it’s possible they surprise some QBs with looks that aren’t on this team’s game film.