All abouts the wideouts

[SemperFeist]

1 hour ago, Klomp said:

Maybe some, but would think everyone would be affected by run plays. It's not like he's the only WR/TE on the field on those plays.

Maybe not Thielen or Diggs, but it would probably skew his numbers in comparison to someone like Wright, who’s not going to be on the field to block. 

[Klomp]

46 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

Maybe not Thielen or Diggs, but it would probably skew his numbers in comparison to someone like Wright, who’s not going to be on the field to block. 

Fairly certain Wright was on the field for run plays. Sure, maybe its a lower percentage compared to Treadwell, but I doubt it's a huge gap.

[marshpit23]

4 hours ago, vike daddy said:

good point. so again, it doesn't look like Treadwell's low performance is solely on him and his skill set.

It’s not solely on him. The QB has to throw him the ball.

There could be many reasons for his low target rate. QB’s confidence, QB’s ability to progress through his reads (Treadwell is likely not a 1 or 2 option on most plays), or Treadwell’s inability to consistently and reliably gain separation.

So, Treadwell was targeted 35 times and hauled in 20 catches. How many of these targets were dropped or properly defended? I have no idea. Going back and reading a scouting report prior to he draft was interesting. This paragraph particularly caught my eye: 

“Treadwell consistently separates far less than most of the receivers in this class. Watching his tape shows a player that relies more on his physicality than getting open in the first place, which is fine for a receiver in college that is already a team’s go-to guy, but in the NFL may result in the ball simply not being thrown his way nearly as often.”

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-monson-why-laquon-treadwell-is-not-a-top-wr-prospect

Looks like what we’ve seen from Treadwell  for the most part, unfortunately.

So, maybe Treadwell’s inability to create consistent separation has caused him to slip down to a 3rd/4th best WR option on any given play. It may also directly correlate to decreased QB confidence. 

The scouting report also compares Treadwell to Kenny Britt and Dez Bryant. Both comparisons have had NFL success ; however, both have difficulty with creating separation. Both Britt and Bryant have carved out a niche in the NFL. Going into his 3rd year, can Treadwell carve out a niche in the NFL; e.g. red zone threat, possession WR? Will the signing of Kirk Cousins improve Treadwell’s odds? 

I’m not sure Treadwell will ever carve out his place as a viable NFL WR threat, but if it’s going to happen, this is the year it needs to happen.

[Krauser]

3 hours ago, Klomp said:

Fairly certain Wright was on the field for run plays. Sure, maybe its a lower percentage compared to Treadwell, but I doubt it's a huge gap.

Using PFF's charting: 

Vikings regular season snaps on offense: 1115

Snaps (percentage): Treadwell 499 (44.8%), Wright 254 (22.8%)

Run block snaps (percentage of their total snaps): Treadwell 176 (35.3%), Wright 80 (31.5%)

Pass route snaps (percentage of their total snaps): Treadwell 323 (64.7%), Wright 174 (68.5%)

Targets (percentage of pass route snaps targeted): Treadwell 33 (10.2%), Wright 23 (28.8%)

Catches (percentage of targets caught): Treadwell 20 (60.6%), Wright 18 (78.3%)

Receiving yards (yards per pass route run): Treadwell 200 (0.67 YPRR), Wright 198 (1.22 YPRR)

...summarizing that: Treadwell and Wright were both used mostly on passing downs, but Wright was targeted much more often than Treadwell (at nearly 3x the rate), caught a significantly higher percentage of his targets, and therefore produced nearly twice the yards per route run. Treadwell was charged with one drop, and Wright none, so that doesn't explain the differences in their stats. 

...

Vikings WRs YPRR compared to the list of 93 WRs across the league who had 25%+ of their team targets:

• Thielen 2.33  -- 7th of 93 WRs, just behind Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins and Tyreek Hill
• Diggs 1.90 -- 19th, just ahead of Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate
• Wright 1.22 -- not enough targets to qualify, but would have been 71st, between Adam Humphries (TB) and Chris Hogan (NE)
• Floyd 1.00 -- not enough targets to qualify, but would have been 82nd, between Bruce Ellingston (HOU) and Bennie Fowler (DEN)
• Treadwell 0.67 -- not enough targets to qualify, but would have been 92nd, between Zay Jones (BUF) and Rashard Higgins (CLE)

Notable WRs who went on to salvage their careers after having a comparably low YPRR to Treadwell's 0.67 early in their careers:

• Nelson Agholor, 0.69 (96th and last among qualifying WRs in 2016)
• Taylor Gabriel, 0.88 (83rd of 85 in 2015)
• Davante Adams 0.96 (88th of 90 in 2014), and 1.06 (77th of 85 in 2015)

2016 was Agholor's 2nd year, 2015 was Gabriel's and Adams' 2nd years. They all improved dramatically in year 3.

Treadwell will have to do the same to start to live up to his draft position. 

 

[Cearbhall]

Treadwell has problems getting off the line of scrimmage too often. That throws off timing and the QB will not see him where and when he expects to see him. I do not expect a change in QB to help this timing. If Treadwell wants more looks he needs to first learn to win at the line of scrimmage. He seems to run decent routes after his release but QBs just can't count on the timing. Even with the decent routes, Treadwell often is unable to gain separation. This is mostly an athletic limitation so there is little hope for change here. If Treadwell improves his release from the LOS he'll need to build up trust with his QB that he'll win contested catches. Last year Treadwell severely hurt his case in this regard on the two interceptions on balls that were targeted at him.

Also, I wouldn't conclude that Treadwell's snap counts were an indication of the offensive coordinator's confidence in Treadwell as much as the team trying to force his development. Ultimately, Treadwell's snap counts declined later in the year and in the playoffs where the team needed to abandon hopes of developing Treadwell in favor of immediate production Jarius Wright as the third WR got over 50% of the snaps. The same Jarius Wright that the team cut just a short time later. Treadwell was demoted under a WR that the team didn't think was worth keeping around...A WR that the team did not think was worth keeping around.

My personal opinion is that the team should take a conditional draft pick for Treadwell if they could find a team willing to take on the rest of Treadwell's guaranteed salaries. I don't know that they can find such a team but the Vikings once traded Troy Williamson away so I hold out hope.

Since the team is stuck with him, I'll be rooting for Treadwell to turn a corner. While it looks unlikely, it is possible.

The interception in the Baltimore game when he was single covered and Keenum threw a pretty good ball would make any QB leery of throwing him the ball and hoping he wins the contested catch. Not only did Treadwell not win the contested catch but his failure to win resulted in a turnover. You might remember this:

 

One week later another pass targeted for Treadwell resulted in an interception. That was enough to undo any goodwill he built up with his catch of the year candidate in week 6 -- the week before his back-to-back weeks of allowing an opponent to intercept a pass targeted for him.

[Krauser]

Agree that Treadwell's releases aren't great, and his ability to win at the catch point was pretty bad in general, despite his reputation and the one amazing catch in the Packers game.

The Ravens INT in particular was just brutal: went for the jugular throwing deep after an early turnover, and Treadwell ends up giving the ball right back. 

The INT in the Browns game wasn't really his fault though, pass was tipped at the line by a DL.

(^^ that should be cued up to the INT in the Browns game)

It's hard to see on the broadcast view but it looks like Treadwell slipped coming out of his break, so even if it hadn't been tipped it might have been picked. The grass was pretty slick in the London game. 

[Klomp]

 

 

[Klomp]

 

[skywindO2]

17 minutes ago, Klomp said:

 

 

 

Besides Vikings being on the list, Mike Daniels is the best part of the top 100 videos. So excited for what Thielen and Diggs can do with Cousins next year. I

How does the battle for the #3 spot(between Treadwell and Wright most likely) impact where Thielen and Diggs line up? I think if Treadwell wins, Thielen would go into the slot more wouldn't he? 

[Cearbhall]

4 hours ago, Krauser said:

(^^ that should be cued up to the INT in the Browns game)

Thanks. I was trying to find a clip of that interception to gain clarity on the cause and was unable to figure the correct search terms to yield the clip.

[Klomp]

The switch from Keenum to Cousins has me very excited about our two starting WRs.

Keenum had his moments, but overall he was too inconsistent with his passes for my liking. I expect Cousins to be on time and on target more often. That will lead to greater YAC opportunities, and I don't know if Thielen and Diggs get the credit they deserve for how good they are once the ball is in their hands.

[Cearbhall]

3 minutes ago, Klomp said:

I don't know if Thielen and Diggs get the credit they deserve for how good they are once the ball is in their hands.

True but they also don't get enough credit for how good they are when the ball is in the air. And how good they are between the time the ball is snapped and the ball is in the air.  They run really good routes and adjust well to the ball in the air.

[Klomp]

4 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

True but they also don't get enough credit for how good they are when the ball is in the air. And how good they are between the time the ball is snapped and the ball is in the air.  They run really good routes and adjust well to the ball in the air.

Also true...

[SemperFeist]

I would say that Thielen has gotten plenty of credit for what he’s done. Named 2nd team all-pro, and voted into the Pro Bowl in what’s really his 2nd season as a starter.  Even voted by his peers as a top 40 player. That’s a good amount of credit. 

[Klomp]

5 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

I would say that Thielen has gotten plenty of credit for what he’s done. Named 2nd team all-pro, and voted into the Pro Bowl in what’s really his 2nd season as a starter.  Even voted by his peers as a top 40 player. That’s a good amount of credit. 

I'm talking ability, not numbers. What you see in the game, not on the box score. It's a different level of respect.