2018 Ravens 1st Round Draft Pick (#25) - Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina

[diamondbull424]

6 hours ago, drd23 said:

The comment about pop, which is why I quoted it

"Pop" in this context implies a certain forcefullness, and I just don't get that impression from what I watched.  He certainly appeared willing to block (which is more than can be said for a lot of TEs), but that was about it

Could’ve sworn your response had more substance in it earlier. But I probably was just distracted.

In terms of pop, every football context I’ve ever heard used has referred to creating pad on pad contact with a pop. It’s referring to effort level rather than any particular result.

Which is why I broke down in detail in the post you quoted, that he generally doesn’t create positive movement or suffer negative movement, but simply a neutral result. Blocking with a pop.

Pop is about effort level. Whereas if I were to describe someone that consistently gets positive movement it would be described as getting a good thump or dominating his opponent or some variation of the like.

[drd23]

13 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

In terms of pop, every football context I’ve ever heard used has referred to creating pad on pad contact with a pop.

And what's to say that the defensive player isn't the one that creates the pad on pad contact?  

I've obviously never played the game, so maybe the term means something different to those that have, but it is an incredibly imprecise term if that is the case

[diamondbull424]

30 minutes ago, drd23 said:

And what's to say that the defensive player isn't the one that creates the pad on pad contact?  

I've obviously never played the game, so maybe the term means something different to those that have, but it is an incredibly imprecise term if that is the case

1. The defensive player should be creating contact. His job is to be the aggressor, to seek out contact. Whereas on offense, enough players look to avoid contact. Particularly guys like Pitta. Mark Andrews is another one of those guys that avoid contact and only block because the play calls on it. But when Hurst blocks, you can see that he seeks it out and attacks. He doesn’t create a winning result, but he attacks nonetheless. So even though he’s not the biggest bodied guy, it usually results in him neutralizing the defender from the play vs losing. This is the biggest negative with his age. If he were 22, he’d still have another 2-3 years to max out his frame to make him a more affective blocker- since he has the mentality, just not the size to be an effective blocker.

2. Pop definition: create a light explosive sound.

A pop therefore isn’t that big of a deal. You discipline a kid and pop his behind, it’s an inconsequential discipline. You get out the belt or the switch or the wet rag (which doesn’t really happen nowadays, but still) and that’s much more serious.

Thump definition: hit heavily with a blunt instrument.

You don’t want to deliver a thump to your kid. That’s called abuse. If someone delivers a thump to their kid, call the local authorities. They are not a fit parent.?

[sp6488]

On 5/1/2018 at 8:13 PM, diamondbull424 said:

He’s a much better blocker than any of our running backs. Plus he has hands and route running ability which would exceed what they are capable of. Lined up as a back, his only job would be to buy the quarterback a split second if things break down. Kyle Juice wasn’t an amazing blocker either. He was solid and was a threat as a receiver and he stole a lot of those shotgun back opportunities. There are very few backs that can block like a Vonta Leach, Ovie Mughelli, or Lorenzo Neal. Everyone else is just there to stop a pass rusher in his tracks to buy half a second for the quarterback to get the ball out. Hurst has that ability.

Watching some of his play, including where he lines up and what routes he runs, does anyone else see Aaron Hernandez (player only) as a comp?  I mentioned it in the other thread, but thought it might make more sense here.

[DreamKid]

6 hours ago, sp6488 said:

Watching some of his play, including where he lines up and what routes he runs, does anyone else see Aaron Hernandez (player only) as a comp?  I mentioned it in the other thread, but thought it might make more sense here.

I'd say they're of a similar ilk, strong hands, smooth, clutch. I use to be a giant fan of the Florida program during the "golden era" there with Harvin, Tebow, Haden etc etc. Hernandez was my favorite player. I wanted us to draft him so bad but the Patriots took him the year we both doubled up on TEs. He was probably a better operator after the catch, and obviously their varying sizes added respective elements, but I don't think it's a bad comp.

[DreamKid]

Podcast is on the Raven's site but here is a transcript video where Decosta explains why they went with Hurst over Ridley-

 

[drd23]

This is the full audio if anyone's interested

Quote

Assistant General Manager Eric DeCosta talked about trading back twice in the first round (16:28), choosing between Hurst and Ridley (20:30), the decision to pick Lamar Jackson (25:40) and much more.

https://balravens.akamaized.net/BAL/audios/dct/video_audio/2018/05-May/DeCostaDraftRecap.mp3

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, DreamKid said:

Podcast is on the Raven's site but here is a transcript video where Decosta explains why they went with Hurst over Ridley-

 

For anyone who doesn’t want to listen to the whole thing. From what I remember:

1. First round graded TEs succeed at a higher rate than first round WRs.

2. At the Jupiter meeting with Biscotti it was outlined that the Ravens need to target and prioritize playmaking offensive talent.

3. Analytic studies by professors have shown that when you have a clump of similarly graded talent, trading down and increasing your law of averages consistently leads to better results than simply taking the highest rated of the clump.

4. The Ravens saw some Todd Heap in Hayden Hurst (likely their magnetic hands and ability to attack the football over the middle of the field).

5. The Todd Heap comparison made it easier to project Hurst onto the team than with guys like Calvin Ridley and DJ Moore. Likely because the Ravens franchise and Joe Flacco had a lot of success with Todd Heap and similarly reliable tight end targets.

[coordinator0]

Sounds like a lot of spin trying to justify a bad pick. 

[diamondbull424]

18 minutes ago, coordinator0 said:

Sounds like a lot of spin trying to justify a bad pick. 

I guess the badness of the pick is relative. If we compare Hurst to Derwin James, then sure. But my take is that the Jupiter meeting was owner pressure to get more offensive talent onto the squad. So choosing offensive talent over James was more appeasing the owner than anything else. But they’re not going to go out and call out Bisciotti, that’s just my takeaway though.

In comparison to Calvin Ridley and DJ Moore, I think the above makes a lot of sense.

If the grades for the players were something like:

1. Moore: 84 ovr

2. Ridley: 83 ovr

3. Hurst: 83 ovr

4. Jackson: 83 ovr

...

15. Goedert: 77 ovr

Then it makes sense. Rather than making a decision between tough choices, the Ravens let other teams make the decision for them. Then when the choice was easier they went with analytics to choose Hurst over Ridley. Which in retrospect I don’t really mind because I think Ridley is an 800-1000 yd type receiver.

My Hurst comp is Zack Ertz mainly because of blocking, but from a receiver standpoint Todd Heap is actually a VERY good comparison that I hadn’t considered.

Todd Heap

6’4 1/2”, 252 lbs, 33” arms, 9 1/2” hands

40yd time: 4.68s, 20yd split: 2.74s, 10yd split: 1.69s

Bench: 22 reps, Vertical: 32”

 

Hayden Hurst

6’4 3/8” 250 lbs, 32 3/4” arms, 9 3/4” hands

40yd time: 4.67s, 20yd split: 2.71s, 10yd split: 1.63s

Bench: 16 reps, Vertical: 32”

Both players have sticky hands, the ability to go up and attack the football, some underrated explosive ability, and can break tackles after the catch.

Heap when healthy was an 800-900 yds threat. So considering what I see of Calvin Ridley, Hurst makes a lot more sense. A tight end that gives you 800-900 yds is a probowler, a receiver that gives you that is above average. We also had a great need at the tight end position as well.

So removing defense from the equation and the pick isn't so bad. It’s only as bad because of losing out on Derwin James.

[DreamKid]

23 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

So removing defense from the equation and the pick isn't so bad. It’s only as bad because of losing out on Derwin James.

I think his age is the biggest cauldron of negativity on this one, just as Marlon's was a saving grace for many of his detractors last year.

I'm over it though. The draft is done and he's a Raven, all I want to do is look forward. We added elite hands to an offense that sorely needed some, it's a shame he'll be 25 soon but I'll be more comfortable giving a second contract to a 30 year old Tight End than I would a 29 year old Wide Receiver.

[diamondbull424]

9 minutes ago, DreamKid said:

I think his age is the biggest cauldron of negativity on this one, just as Marlon's was a saving grace for many of his detractors last year.

I'm over it though. The draft is done and he's a Raven, all I want to do is look forward. We added elite hands to an offense that sorely needed some, it's a shame he'll be 25 soon but I'll be more comfortable giving a second contract to a 30 year old Tight End than I would a 29 year old Wide Receiver.

Which is the other benefit. Hurst’s second contract is going to be awfully team friendly compared to what a second contract will look like for everyone else.

Could you imagine if we were trying to sign All Pro player Derwin James to a second contract AND All Pro player Lamar Jackson to a second contract?

No way we’re holding on to both players. We likely have the same problem with DJ Moore as well. Hurst might be the only one of the bunch that we can sign Lamar Jackson to a $40m/year contract extension in 2023 (at the rate these QB deals are going) and still sign Hurst to a modest $10m/year tight end deal.

[berlin calling]

2 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

2. At the Jupiter meeting with Biscotti it was outlined that the Ravens need to target and prioritize playmaking offensive talent.

so obviously you choose TE over WR

2 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

3. Analytic studies by professors have shown that when you have a clump of similarly graded talent, trading down and increasing your law of averages consistently leads to better results than simply taking the highest rated of the clump.

some kind of moneyball analytics going on here now?

[diamondbull424]

12 minutes ago, berlin calling said:

so obviously you choose TE over WR

some kind of moneyball analytics going on here now?

Actually, yeah. DeCosta is big on using analytics to make decisions similar to Thomas Dimitroff of the Atlanta Falcons. He’s the new school analytics guy while Ozzie is the old school, gut call type.

[drd23]

3 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

1. First round graded TEs succeed at a higher rate than first round WRs.

I'd love to see the proof of this and the theory for the reason why.

I'd think it's probably because its not a position that gets drafted in the first round all that much, and therefore only the elite prospects get selected there, whereas because WRs get drafted in the 1st round more, you are more likely to get flawed prospects drafted highly anyway (which comes with a higher chance of not succeeding)