3rd Round Pick (88th Overall): Oren Burks [LB; Vanderbilt]

[Patriotplayer90]

6 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

I did read.  TransientTexan asked you how many #3 guys are better.  You said there's no way he's a middle of the pack guy.  How many teams have a better #3?  If you can't think of 16 teams that have a better #3 interior defensive lineman, he is, by definition, at least middle of the pack as far as #3 interior defensive linemen.  Not sure what else I'm supposed to read. 

I don't find it hard to believe at all that 16 teams have a better backup DL than Lowry.  Look at where our defense ranks each year.  You'd have to assume that most of the better defenses have better depth.  If the point of this exercise is to prove that he's better than the backups on bad defensive units, it's not exactly a glowing endorsement.

[Golfman]

7 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Darren Sharper forced 3 Turnovers and scored 3 defensive TDs as a rookie.

Nick Collins forced 3 Turnovers and had 8 PD as a rookie.

Josh Jones did not show that level of pass defense as a rookie. Josh Jones looked like a 4-3 Will backer learning a new position as a rookie. 

I hope that we see Jones really take off this year. He has the movement skills to do it, but this is not a sure thing in any way. 

He fell into three plays. Look at his '98 season, his first as a starter. The numbers are EMBARRASSING and so was he. Link posted. He did not defend 1 pass as a starting free safety in '98. Yet, he probably was borderline HOF until the rapes became public. 

Giving up on Josh Jones after his rookie year trying to play 2 positions is not wise IMO. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SharDa00.htm

[Golfman]

4 minutes ago, Donzo said:

As of now, he's penciled in as the 4th best Packer DL, so he looks even better there.

He's a big active guy who got a little better his 2nd year. If he improves a little bit more, he' s a very good rotational D-lineman. 

And Adams could pass him this year so he'd be #5. I think that is a heck of a rotation if Lowry improves and Adams passes him. 

[MacReady]

Just now, Patriotplayer90 said:

I don't find it hard to believe at all that 16 teams have a better backup DL than Lowry.  Look at where our defense ranks each year.  You'd have to assume that most of the better defenses have better depth.  If the point of this exercise is to prove that he's better than the backups on bad defensive units, it's not exactly a glowing endorsement.

Just because it's the easiest, let's use PFF.  It's not defensive backs, so their ratings of players shouldn't be absolutely terrible.  It's DL, and I think most can kinda agree that PFF is kinda okay for line play on both sides of the ball. 

Dean Lowry had a 77 grade on PFF.  That is in the Average territory. 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/dean-lowry/10771

Find 16 interior linemen that are #3 on their team's depth chart. 

A 77 puts Lowry at #3 on the Eagles depth chart from last year. 

I'll even tell you how to do it.  Google "(Insert team name) 2018 season.  Look at their current roster.  Pick out their top 3 interior defensive linemen.  Google that DL's name followed by PFF.  Match their score to Lowry's. 

Ledbetter - 56
Ringo - 72
Robinson - 78
Williams - 76.5

That would put Lowry as better than Detroit's #3 IDL. 

I have now provided you with one team that you don't have to check.  I have shown you exactly how to accept or decline this challenge.  You have 30 teams to find 16 teams with better #3 IDL in the league. 

I believe you will either not accept the challenge or accept the challenge, try, and then realize that other teams do not have 60 or 70 players on their roster, that the talent across the NFL is not bountiful, and that Lowry is a good #3 IDL in this league.  It's been my point for a long time that Packer fans (and all fans of all teams) don't often realize perspective. 

[AlexGreen#20]

24 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

I did read.  TransientTexan asked you how many #3 guys are better.  You said there's no way he's a middle of the pack guy.  How many teams have a better #3?  If you can't think of 16 teams that have a better #3 interior defensive lineman, he is, by definition, at least middle of the pack as far as #3 interior defensive linemen.  Not sure what else I'm supposed to read. 

AFC East

Patriots: Lowry>Lawrence Guy

Jets: Lowry>Xavier Cooper

Dolphins: Lowry<Akeem Spence

Bills: Lowry<Star Lotulelei

AFC North

Ravens: Lowry>Carl Davis/Brent Urban

Steelers: Lowry<Javon Hargrave

Bengals: Lowry>Ryan Glasgow

Browns: Lowry<Brantley (This one is messy on who the #3 guy for Cleveland is)

AFC South

Colts: Lowry>Casaun Reid

Jaguars: Lowry<Arby Jones/Marcell Dareus (Dareus is the better player but Jones is listed as the starter. Both are better)

Texans: Lowry<Christian Covington

Titans: Lowry<Daquon Jones

AFC West

Chargers: Lowry<Darius Philon

Chiefs: Lowry>Xavier Williams

Broncos: Lowry>Domato Peko

Raiders: Lowry<Tank Carradine

+++

Just off the top of my head and just doing the AFC, Lowry would be the 10th best #3DL in the hypothetical 17 team AFC. Definition of a middle of the road #3 guy.

[Donzo]

1 hour ago, JBURGE25 said:

Lowry is a BAD #3 guys... He is a fringe roster player. 

Link?

[MacReady]

@AlexGreen#20

I'm just going to go with the ones you said were better than Lowry.

Lowry - 77.0
Spence - 76.7
Lotulelei - 49.5
Hargrove - 78.8
Brantly - 73.0
Dareus - 79.7
Covington - 83.2
Jones - 80.2
Philon 75.2
Carradine - 78.1
 

So, like TransientTexan argued, and I agreed with, Lowry would be at LEAST middle of the pack as a #3 IDL in the AFC. 

[AlexGreen#20]

17 minutes ago, Golfman said:

He fell into three plays. Look at his '98 season, his first as a starter. The numbers are EMBARRASSING and so was he. Link posted. He did not defend 1 pass as a starting free safety in '98. Yet, he probably was borderline HOF until the rapes became public. 

Giving up on Josh Jones after his rookie year trying to play 2 positions is not wise IMO. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SharDa00.htm

1. Pass deflected did not become a recorded statistic until 2001. Unless you think that Sharper was also a pro bowler and first team all pro in 2000 without defending a pass as well.

2. Nobody is giving up on Jones. There is a difference between not counting on him and giving up on him. 

[Donzo]

18 minutes ago, Golfman said:

And Adams could pass him this year so he'd be #5. I think that is a heck of a rotation if Lowry improves and Adams passes him. 

Absolutely.

With two years left on his rookie contract/team control, Lowry  is a positive player for the Packers. If he can continue to ascend, he could be an excellent asset for the Packers.

[AlexGreen#20]

1 minute ago, HorizontoZenith said:

@AlexGreen#20

I'm just going to go with the ones you said were better than Lowry.

Lowry - 77.0
Spence - 76.7
Lotulelei - 49.5
Hargrove - 78.8
Brantly - 73.0
Dareus - 79.7
Covington - 83.2
Jones - 80.2
Philon 75.2
Carradine - 78.1
 

So, like TransientTexan argued, and I agreed with, Lowry would be at LEAST middle of the pack as a #3 IDL in the AFC. 

With margins of error that small, I call into question the validity of using PFF. This is all a shot in the dark anyway. I'm going off of one game sample sizes on most of these guys. I will say that I think Dareus, Lotulelei, and Philon are seriously underrated here.

The only argument I would make and I would like to see is which of these guys if any had very good pass rush/run stuff grades. I'd rather have a guy who has one specialty (especially if it as a rusher) than a jack of all trades in that role.

[Donzo]

12 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Just off the top of my head and just doing the AFC, Lowry would be the 10th best #3DL in the hypothetical 17 team AFC. Definition of a middle of the road #3 guy.

Then you gotta be thrilled with him as the Packers #4 guy- right?

Then, considering contracts, Lowry really shines... Just look at what Lawrence Guy is getting paid to be compared to Lowry.  And, how good was Guy his 2nd season? I don't think it was until 4th or 5th season that he did anything better than Lowry has done his first two years.

[MacReady]

Just now, AlexGreen#20 said:

With margins of error that small, I call into question the validity of using PFF.

Would you or would you not agree that Lowry is an average #3 interior defensive lineman in this league? 

[AlexGreen#20]

10 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

Would you or would you not agree that Lowry is an average #3 interior defensive lineman in this league? 

Yeah, my issue with Lowry isn't the #3 IDL tag. Those guys tend to be either skinny rush guys who are unplayable for long stretches on standard downs or big run stuffing NT types. The #3 IDL spot is a stuational player.

My issue with Lowry is as the #4 rush guy.

Last year Lowry was the #4 rush guy in the pressure package for long stretches. When he, Fackrell, and Brooks are competing for those reps and all doing nothing or are injured, that's an issue. Clark is a real good NT but he shouldn't be playing pressure package reps.

Perry/Daniels/X/Matthews was our group last year even when everyone was healthy. X was filled with Lowry/Fackrell/Brooks. 

In an ideal world, Matthews isn't even among the 4 guys in your rush group and is playing as the "ILB/Blitzer" in those looks. We just didn't have the horses and the edge guys weren't consistently healthy.

[AlexGreen#20]

14 minutes ago, Donzo said:

Then you gotta be thrilled with him as the Packers #4 guy- right?

Then, considering contracts, Lowry really shines... Just look at what Lawrence Guy is getting paid to be compared to Lowry.  And, how good was Guy his 2nd season? I don't think it was until 4th or 5th season that he did anything better than Lowry has done his first two years.

The #4 IDL barely played if he played at all last year. The 4 guy doesn't matter in most schemes. 

[Mr. Fussnputz]

IIRC Lowery sustained a significant injury in the fourth and last pre-season game last year. That got him off to a slow start to the season and I don't think he ever completely recovered. How can you when 300 pounders hammer on you every week? If he can get through the pre-season healthy, I'm predicting a pretty good year for Lowery. Lowery will be a solid #4 and Adams will hopefully develop the second year jump and be a solid #5. I think this group is going to be just fine, unless we get multiple injuries at the DL position. Looney makes a good PS developmental player.