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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, champ11 said:

Why did Holland fall out of the draft? Seems like a great pickup

I obviously love Phillip Lindsay

 

27 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

Not sure. Ultra productive, already pretty skilled i.e. not a project type and the measurables I see on his spider chart aren't outstanding but they're at least average. I don't get it. 

I think it’s because he played as a DE in college.  And needs to go to EDGE no way he can play there.  Then his average athletic profile and the fact he’s not shredded, he doesn’t look the part at all.   Until he steps on the field.   

He has a great burst off the line.   He has incredible hand fighting skills.  He has good feint moves.   And he’s got an insane motor.   That’s how he wins in pass rush.  

He’s not great at change of direction if a runner slides / cuts.   His lateral agility is very meh.  It’s why he excels at pass rush but is close to a zero in run support.   So he’s likely nothing more than our 3rd EDGE, in for pass situations.   But again for the price - insane value.   Pass-down only EDGES are still really valuable.  Especially on a rookie contract. 

 

Edited by Broncofan

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

 

I think it’s because he played as a DE in college.  And needs to go to EDGE no way he can play there.  Then his average athletic profile and the fact he’s not shredded, he doesn’t look the part at all.   Until he steps on the field.   

He has a great burst off the line.   He has incredible hand fighting skills.  He has good feint moves.   And he’s got an insane motor.   That’s how he wins in pass rush.  

He’s not great at change of direction if a runner slides / cuts.   His lateral agility is very meh.  It’s why he excels at pass rush but is close to a zero in run support.   So he’s likely nothing more than our 3rd EDGE, in for pass situations.   But again for the price - insane value.   Pass-down only EDGES are still really valuable.  Especially on a rookie contract. 

 

Can bend too. I see a productive NFL pass rusher when I watch clips of him.

Suddenly I don't mind the prospect of losing both Barrett and Ray at all. I think I'd exercise Ray's 5th year option though, because you can always rescind it later. It's a good situation, really. If he doesn't take any steps forward, rescind the option. If he does break out though , 9 million dollars isn't bad at all. 

Edited by BroncoBruin

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4 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

Can bend too. I see a productive NFL pass rusher when I watch clips of him.

Suddenly I don't mind the prospect of losing both Barrett and Ray at all. I think I'd exercise Ray's 5th year option though, because you can always rescind it later. It's a good situation, really. If he doesn't take any steps forward, rescind the option. If he does break out though , 9 million dollars isn't bad at all. 

Yeah, that's my argument for Ray.   If the money was guaranteed, no way we do it.  There's still risk if he can't pass a March 2019 physical, but IMO it's worth it.

The only bad outcome is he sucks, and he can't pass that March 2019 physical.

The no-harm, no-foul outcome is he isn't worth 9M, and we cut him.  Nothing gained, but nothing lost in our case.

The 2 best-cases are that he breaks out, and then he's totally worth the 9M to keep.   Or that he breaks out, and suddenly at 9M, he's actually cheap for a difference-making EDGE (they are are 12M+ easy, if not more, esp if you are young).   That means we get a decent trade value - maybe a Day 2 pick.   Which would be amazing...now that Elway & Kubiak seem to actually be able to evaluate Day 2 talent competently.

The risk-reward analysis says it's a smart idea to renew the 5th year option, unless there's a linger injury concern.   Remember that Ray's injury, while it allowed him to return after PUP, was going to sap his strength for 6+ months before restoring its full power.  It should be back now.   It explains why he sucked so hard in 2017, as soon as that injury happened and was confirmed I feared it was a lost season.  But it also gives hope he can rebound in a big way.   If he does, we will absolutely kick ourselves for not taking the 5th year option.  And I'm saying that knowing how bad our cap situation is.   I'll regret it if he gets hurt and can't pass that March 2019 physical for sure.  But I'll regret him breaking out and us letting him walk (we won't be able to retain him in FA, that's a lock), and getting only a comp pick back, when the return would be likely far, far greater.

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True. It's definitely worth remembering the potential injury wrench, especially given how that turd Watson is eating up a huge chunk of our cap this year. 

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Nice to see DEN spending to get priority UDFA.  It would count vs. our cap if they make the 53 man roster.   But that’s peanuts if they are worth putting there.  

 

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On 4/28/2018 at 5:40 PM, Broncofan said:

WOW this one's HUUUUUUGE.

@jrry32 LOVES this guy.

 

Amezed this guy was still there?  Was there a red flag?

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Posted (edited)
On 4/30/2018 at 11:49 AM, BroncoBruin said:

Can bend too. I see a productive NFL pass rusher when I watch clips of him.

Suddenly I don't mind the prospect of losing both Barrett and Ray at all. I think I'd exercise Ray's 5th year option though, because you can always rescind it later. It's a good situation, really. If he doesn't take any steps forward, rescind the option. If he does break out though , 9 million dollars isn't bad at all. 

 

On 4/30/2018 at 12:04 PM, BroncoBruin said:

True. It's definitely worth remembering the potential injury wrench, especially given how that turd Watson is eating up a huge chunk of our cap this year. 

Well, I think the Menelik Watson situation has Elway & Kubiak a little spooked, because Klis indicates we aren't going to pick up Ray's 5th year option.

Again, it's only guaranteed if Ray can't pass a mid-March physical in 2019, so it seems like we are just letting him walk, and unlikely to get any decent return as if we exercised the option - because if he breaks through to 10+ sacks (like the 10 he got in 2016), then he's likely to get trade interest at his age and reasonable 9M 2019 option.   If he isn't worth 9M, we just cut him.  Now, there's risk if he gets hurt like Watson did and can't pass a March 2019 physical.   So it's not a zero-risk decision, just seemed like it was worth it.   Then again, our cap situation for 2019 is so dire, or maybe there's a risk that's not disclosed.   Guess time will tell.  

Edited by Broncofan

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 

Well, I think the Menelik Watson has Elway & Kubiak a little spooked, because Klis indicates we aren't going to pick up Ray's 5th year option.

Again, it's only guaranteed if Ray can't pass a mid-March physical in 2019, so it seems like we are just letting him walk, and unlikely to get any decent return as if we exercised the option - because if he breaks through to 10+ sacks (like the 10 he got in 2016), then he's likely to get trade interest at his age and reasonable 9M 2019 option.   If he isn't worth 9M, we just cut him.  Now, there's risk if he gets hurt like Watson did and can't pass a March 2019 physical.   So it's not a zero-risk decision, just seemed like it was worth it.   Then again, our cap situation for 2019 is so dire, or maybe there's a risk that's not disclosed.   Guess time will tell.  

3 things IR players can be traded, or a trade can happen, or comp pick.

If he leaves he goes to kc I don't wanna help them.

Edited by thebestever6

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

Well, I think the Menelik Watson situation has Elway & Kubiak a little spooked, because Klis indicates we aren't going to pick up Ray's 5th year option.

Again, it's only guaranteed if Ray can't pass a mid-March physical in 2019, so it seems like we are just letting him walk, and unlikely to get any decent return as if we exercised the option - because if he breaks through to 10+ sacks (like the 10 he got in 2016), then he's likely to get trade interest at his age and reasonable 9M 2019 option.   If he isn't worth 9M, we just cut him.  Now, there's risk if he gets hurt like Watson did and can't pass a March 2019 physical.   So it's not a zero-risk decision, just seemed like it was worth it.   Then again, our cap situation for 2019 is so dire, or maybe there's a risk that's not disclosed.   Guess time will tell.  

I don't get this. The injury risk is the only reason I wouldn't pick up the option. Why box yourself in making a decision like this? Confusing to say the least.

And I say this as someone who believes Ray has been a borderline bust. 

Edited by BroncoBruin

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BroncoBruin said:

I don't get this. The injury risk is the only reason I wouldn't pick up the option. Why box yourself in making a decision like this? Confusing to say the least.

And I say this as someone who believes Ray has been a borderline bust. 

The only way you can justify this is if:

1.  You (generic you) don't see any way Ray could be worth 9M as an EDGE.   A guy like Cameron Erving fits here as a 2019 5th year option guy to decline purely based on skill - there's such a low chance to be worth that $, you don't add any risk by taking the option, because then there's only risk he will get hurt, there's no upside there.    But we know  Ray's had a 10-sack season in 2016.   If we knew he would do that, we'd renew the option in a heartbeat.  So it's not like we don't think there's any hope.  He's actually performed at a level where the option would be a no-brainer to exercise.  If it was a top 10 pick, then the option $ is way higher.  But 9M is an absolute bargain if you get a 10+ sack guy who's young, and could still improve (or keep playing at his peak).  

2.   The risk of failing a March 2019 physical is far greater than we know publicly.   The wrist injury is not a type that's a risk to re-occur (do it again, or complications from surgery, totally different story).   So right now, there's nothing there that says this is an additional risk.    Yes, it just happened to Watson, but ironically, Watson was a very clear injury risk even in OAK (why I'm surprised Elway agreed to put in year 2...price of a bad T market I suppose, oh well).

3.   He's got some other risk (maybe we'll hear there's a 4-game PED/weed suspension that's under appeal).

From everything we know, none of those concerns applies.   So yeah, NOT a fan if this is what Elway decides.    Frankly, Elway would be best served to at least kick the tires on trading Ray before Friday to a team that would consider renewing the 5th year option.    I've said all along that Barrett is the guy to trade, because he's done and not getting re-signed after 2018 - but if we don't renew the 5th year option with Ray, that statement applies to Ray as well now.   And unlike Barrett, there's a small but very clear potential added traded value if we do it before May 3 - because a team that trades for him would likely want to renew the 2019 option, given it's not guaranteed except for injury.

The ironic part is that usually this time of year, we're lauding Elway for his business decisions, contracts, etc. - and wringing our hands about his draft.  The one year where he kills the draft (and Kubiak, and likely help from adding analytics too, but whatever he's doing, keep doing or do more lol), we get this really weird decision.   Maybe we'll hear more that supports #1 or #2 or #3 later.

Edited by Broncofan

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I trust Elway and Sullivan when it comes to contract stuff.

Not to be that guy, but Shane Ray definitely hasn't had a 10 sack season. Whenever I think of his sacks, I think of clean up sacks. I'm completely fine with not picking up the option. If he proves himself valuable enough to be making 9m next year and gets a decent contract this offseason - great, we shouldn't be paying him. We've got enough money tied up in that position. Let him walk and let your cheaper talent fill in. Luckily some of that cheaper talent is a top 5 pick.

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, champ11 said:

I trust Elway and Sullivan when it comes to contract stuff.

Not to be that guy, but Shane Ray definitely hasn't had a 10 sack season. Whenever I think of his sacks, I think of clean up sacks. I'm completely fine with not picking up the option. If he proves himself valuable enough to be making 9m next year and gets a decent contract this offseason - great, we shouldn't be paying him. We've got enough money tied up in that position. Let him walk and let your cheaper talent fill in. Luckily some of that cheaper talent is a top 5 pick.

The key though is that if he has a bad season - we just walk away.   No dead $ (unless he's hurt so badly he's not healthy for start of new 2019 football year - mid-March).   If he has a great season, the 9M deal is one you can then deal for a far better return than if we let him walk - then it's at best a 2020 end-of-3rd round pick - and only if it's a top 5 contract/Pro-Bowl type season from all the FA's signed that year.  Anything less, it's a 4th-5th or worse.    

Totally agree we wouldn't likely pay him the 9M with Chubb & Von - we could still just walk away if it's iffy, so it's not like we're locked in (unless he gets a serious enough injury to not pass that March 2019 physical).  But if he plays great, we have a trade chip at far better value than if we just let him walk.  Which given our cap situation, we are pretty much locked in. 

Edited by Broncofan

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13 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The key though is that if he has a bad season - we just walk away.   No dead $ (unless he's hurt so badly he's not healthy for start of new 2019 football year - mid-March).   If he has a great season, the 9M deal is one you can then deal for a far better return than if we let him walk - then it's at best a 2020 end-of-3rd round pick - and only if it's a top 5 contract/Pro-Bowl type season from all the FA's signed that year.  Anything less, it's a 4th-5th or worse.    

Totally agree we wouldn't likely pay him the 9M with Chubb & Von - we could still just walk away if it's iffy, so it's not like we're locked in (unless he gets a serious enough injury to not pass that March 2019 physical).  But if he plays great, we have a trade chip at far better value than if we just let him walk.  Which given our cap situation, we are pretty much locked in. 

wow, they really make it easy on these GM's huh. Didn't realize you can just terminate the deal. lol 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, champ11 said:

wow, they really make it easy on these GM's huh. Didn't realize you can just terminate the deal. lol 

Yeah, I don't want to get you started on how team-friendly the contracts are lol, we all agree there (and I know how you feel, I'm with you there). 

But given how the 5th year option works as above, it's surprising Elway isn't considering it.  Unless there's a risk of injury that's not public, or there's another off-the-field risk, it's weird.   It just takes away an option that has some risk, but really low given Ray's injury history isn't of the long-term variety.    

TBH, it would not surprise me if Elway isn't on the phone, looking for a trade offer now.   If there's any team that's willing to sign Ray to the 2019 5th year option (again, realizing it's not guaranteed except for failing to pass a March 2019 physical), then we are better off trading him before May 3rd's deadline to decide.   Even if it's a 4th round pick for 2019, book-wise that automatically beats the 2020 end-of-3rd round best case scenario (when you add the extra year to wait, at worst it's same value, at best, it's better, since you subtract 1 round for waiting an extra year).   What would really suck is playing both Barrett & Ray and then letting both walk for pretty much next to nothing.  If we're letting both walk next year, we should look to deal either one of them.  Ray coming off injury won't get any better than a 4th, which is why I wanted to wait, but that was assuming we'd renew the 2019 option.  If he balled out with 10+ sacks, we'd certainly do better than that at 9M.  With no option, though, we're better off kicking the tires before Friday's deadline.  Oh well.

Edited by Broncofan

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Posted (edited)

Add 2 more UDFA's to our list.   OT Leon Johnson is interesting because he has the physical traits to play T, and was in theory, was a starter since his RS sophomore year.   But, he was also benched in 2017 for reasons unclear, and Temple actually used a 6-man rotation, so he didn't play a full set of snaps each game.   Probably a big reason why he's a UDFA.   He's no lock, but just more interesting, since his toolset is probably higher than the usual UDFA.    He seems to profile like the usual high-physical-tool, less-impressive football performance flier that Elway loved to take.  Glad to see it's being saved for the late rounds/UDFA lol.

Only thing I can say about Diarse is that I hope he's not a jerk, given his last name.   

 

Edited by Broncofan

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