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Where to pick this year's rookie running backs?


NcFinest9erFan

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On 7/13/2018 at 1:47 PM, NcFinest9erFan said:

Outside of Barkley, where would you guys pick the rest of the crew?

Penny?

Freeman?

Guice?

Ronald Jones?

It would vary with keeper vs non and PPR vs Standard. In keeper they are all RB2s with IMO Guice and Jones being best long term valve. In PPR they are lower in value than standard, but if it is a standard nonkeeper league they are are flex or very low RB2 value.

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In standard flex/non ppr leagues I have it as: Guice-Penny/Jones-Freeman. And honestly I have all in the 50-65 range

Guice will lose alot of catches to Thompson

Jones is smaller so likely won't have the GL chances, not a great OL either

Freeman likely splits with Booker some and a middle of the road OL

Penny has a terrible OL but likely won't have to share too much

 

Every year i try to draft a rookie RB because a few always come with lightning in a bottle and dont cost too much. These guys will fall in that range of likely your #2 RB or flex which doesn't sound great but if they are then you SHOULD have 1-2 legit RBs and 1-2 legit WRs and maybe even a QB or TE so you can afford some high risk/reward. The 50-65 range is early round 5-early round 6

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1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

In standard flex/non ppr leagues I have it as: Guice-Penny/Jones-Freeman. And honestly I have all in the 50-65 range

Guice will lose alot of catches to Thompson

Jones is smaller so likely won't have the GL chances, not a great OL either

Freeman likely splits with Booker some and a middle of the road OL

Penny has a terrible OL but likely won't have to share too much

 

Every year i try to draft a rookie RB because a few always come with lightning in a bottle and dont cost too much. These guys will fall in that range of likely your #2 RB or flex which doesn't sound great but if they are then you SHOULD have 1-2 legit RBs and 1-2 legit WRs and maybe even a QB or TE so you can afford some high risk/reward. The 50-65 range is early round 5-early round 6

Yeah looking back to last year, I wished I had taken the rookie rbs more seriously. I missed out on hunt and cook because I decided to fill a need and not pick BPA. So this year I plan on owning a couple of these rookie rbs. 

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9 hours ago, RTD said:

It would vary with keeper vs non and PPR vs Standard. In keeper they are all RB2s with IMO Guice and Jones being best long term valve. In PPR they are lower in value than standard, but if it is a standard nonkeeper league they are are flex or very low RB2 value.

ppr league but we have some custom scoring settings. We give half a point per carry. 

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Michel in that NE offense should be good just hate NE RB's and because of his fumble history he could find his way to the bench really quickly.  Sounds like the guy I would take the chance on is Penny based on workload and Russell Wilson being his QB.  That OL is bad though.

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Honestly, I don’t have a bunch of interest in this years rookie class in redrafter leagues. I feel that lots of them landed in tough situations. 

The two that I’m interested in are Barkley and Michel. I’m guessing that I won’t get Barkley in many leagues, but I’ll probably own lots of shares of Michel. I don’t know where I’ll get him, I’ll have to do more research in regards to ADP, but you can get him cheaply enough to target him somewhere in the early-mid rounds ala Kamara last year. 

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4 hours ago, sammymvpknight said:

Honestly, I don’t have a bunch of interest in this years rookie class in redrafter leagues. I feel that lots of them landed in tough situations. 

The two that I’m interested in are Barkley and Michel. I’m guessing that I won’t get Barkley in many leagues, but I’ll probably own lots of shares of Michel. I don’t know where I’ll get him, I’ll have to do more research in regards to ADP, but you can get him cheaply enough to target him somewhere in the early-mid rounds ala Kamara last year. 

I feel like rookie RBs are taken earlier than ADP just because people know a few break out unexpectedly and Duke Johnson isn’t exactly breaking out in that way and likely has a similar ADP. Last year having so many good rookie RBs will make people thirsty for finding one

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10 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I feel like rookie RBs are taken earlier than ADP just because people know a few break out unexpectedly and Duke Johnson isn’t exactly breaking out in that way and likely has a similar ADP. Last year having so many good rookie RBs will make people thirsty for finding one

I agree. But last year was nuts...this year won’t be anywhere close to last year. I’ll let everyone else bid high on the rookies this year. 

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12 hours ago, sammymvpknight said:

I agree. But last year was nuts...this year won’t be anywhere close to last year. I’ll let everyone else bid high on the rookies this year. 

That will likely be the scenario as well but in a non-ppr league given where the rookies not named Barkley are ranked, you can pick them or the likes of:

Derrick Henry

Joe Mixon

Alex Collins

Kenyan Drake

Jay Ajayi

Mark Ingram

Marlon Mack

Tevin Coleman

Lamar Miller

Dion Lewis

Isaiah Crowell

 

Some of those above i like but alot of them I deem practically undraftable at those rankings 

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On 7/18/2018 at 6:16 AM, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

That will likely be the scenario as well but in a non-ppr league given where the rookies not named Barkley are ranked, you can pick them or the likes of:

Derrick Henry

Joe Mixon

Alex Collins

Kenyan Drake

Jay Ajayi

Mark Ingram

Marlon Mack

Tevin Coleman

Lamar Miller

Dion Lewis

Isaiah Crowell

 

Some of those above i like but alot of them I deem practically undraftable at those rankings 

Yeah I agree. I like Ajayi but it doesn't seem like he will be the clear workhorse. Ingram could be a nice value pick but what if payton tells him to screw himself and Ingram isn't used as he was last year? Earlier in the year, I was huge on Henry but have soured on him bc dion lewis is there, I still think he'll be a decent RB2 bc of early down work/goal-line but boy when TEN needs to pick up the pace, he won't be on the field. 

I actually like Lamar Miller a ton this year.  Mixon is someone I am targeting in my home draft pending on how things go, I see big things for him. 

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On 7/17/2018 at 5:53 PM, sammymvpknight said:

I agree. But last year was nuts...this year won’t be anywhere close to last year. I’ll let everyone else bid high on the rookies this year. 

yeah I prefer to draft someone like Penny in round 5/6/7. I don't like that his current ADP is around 3rd-4th round. 

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2 hours ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

yeah I prefer to draft someone like Penny in round 5/6/7. I don't like that his current ADP is around 3rd-4th round. 

If he gets the touches most expect then he has RB2 written all over him and round 3-4 is probably right.  Most expect him to be top 20 for RB touches being a first rounder.

I like Ronald Jones as well at his ADP and situation.  Not much comp there in Barber so he should get his fair share as well.  Barkley, Penny, Jones are the only three I'm really pumped about owning.  Freeman at 4 and Guice at 5 round out my top 5 rookie RB's but neither really excite me as much as the top 3.  

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5 hours ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

Yeah I agree. I like Ajayi but it doesn't seem like he will be the clear workhorse. Ingram could be a nice value pick but what if payton tells him to screw himself and Ingram isn't used as he was last year? Earlier in the year, I was huge on Henry but have soured on him bc dion lewis is there, I still think he'll be a decent RB2 bc of early down work/goal-line but boy when TEN needs to pick up the pace, he won't be on the field. 

I actually like Lamar Miller a ton this year.  Mixon is someone I am targeting in my home draft pending on how things go, I see big things for him. 

Mixon scares me because he was horribly inefficient AND wasn't used that well either. Also I think Lamar Miller will be fighting off D'Onta alot though

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On 7/18/2018 at 6:16 AM, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

That will likely be the scenario as well but in a non-ppr league given where the rookies not named Barkley are ranked, you can pick them or the likes of:

Derrick Henry

Joe Mixon

Alex Collins

Kenyan Drake

Jay Ajayi

Mark Ingram

Marlon Mack

Tevin Coleman

Lamar Miller

Dion Lewis

Isaiah Crowell

 

Some of those above i like but alot of them I deem practically undraftable at those rankings 

I’d take most on that list before the significant majority of rookie RBs. 

Edit: in a redrafter league. 

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