JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 21, 2018 Author Share Posted August 21, 2018 8 hours ago, sammymvpknight said: I tier the QBs and TEs. I will usually go RB and WR BPA in every round, but I come to a round that I feel that I'm not getting great value at either position, I look at the QB and TE tiers and see if it makes sense. I typically like to get a second tier TE. Ertz for instance was being drafted after a number of other TEs who I felt was in his same tier last year...so I used those other players being picked to indicator that it was time to draft Ertz. I do the same at QB. This year, I think that Rudolph will probably be on many of my teams. At QB, I think that I'll end up with lots of guys like Stafford and Rivers. Rudolph is one I'd be fine to get. I just don't want to get stuck with the 10th-12th best TE or its just a crapshoot. Hate taking 1-2 points from a starter. I think the late 3rd-4th round is a perfect place for a TE since it seems like there are just so many WRs that are going to be close in projections available. I'm really hoping Gronk/Kelce fall to me at 35. TEs seem to be very underrated in our league. I got Gronk at 29 last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babyatemydingo Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Consider this: You are in a 12 team PPR league and have the first pick. After you take Gurley or Bell or Johnson you don't pick again until 24. In all likelihood there are no more #1's left ..... except at TE. Do you consider taking Gronkowski AND Kelce? Think about it. You have the #1 TE and a decent flex depending if your league rules allow it. You can still find a #2 RB and a #2 WR (or two #2 WR's). That leaves one spot to fill where you need to get "lucky." You have at least half-a-dozen roster spots with which to do that. The player only needs to be viable. To do this you would have to have some combination of "established" and "potential" players. It would certainly alter the course of the draft. I ran some scenarios on the simulator: MINE QB Carson Wentz PHI RB Todd Gurley LAR RB Marshawn Lynch OAK WR Golden Tate DET WR Allen Robinson CHI TE Travis Kelce KC FLX Rob Gronkowski NE DST LA Chargers LAC K Matt Prater DET BN Chris Thompson WAS BN Nelson Agholor PHI BN Kenny Golladay DET BN C.J. Anderson CAR BN LeGarrette Blount DET BN Chris Godwin TB BN Derek Carr OAK AUTO (after round 3) QB Russell Wilson SEA RB Todd Gurley LAR RB Kerryon Johnson DET WR JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT WR Emmanuel Sanders DEN TE Rob Gronkowski NE FLX Travis Kelce KC DST Philadelphia Eagles PHI K Robbie Gould SF BN Kenny Stills MIA BN Duke Johnson CLE BN Rishard Matthews TEN BN Ty Montgomery GB BN Chris Godwin TB BN Samaje Perine WAS BN Alex Smith WAS Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammymvpknight Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 I think Gronk and Kelce as late 2nd-early third rounders in VBD. I have Ertz as a late third-early fourth. But is uses draft trends that are league specific to adjust for VBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 22, 2018 Author Share Posted August 22, 2018 9 hours ago, babyatemydingo said: Consider this: You are in a 12 team PPR league and have the first pick. After you take Gurley or Bell or Johnson you don't pick again until 24. In all likelihood there are no more #1's left ..... except at TE. Do you consider taking Gronkowski AND Kelce? Think about it. You have the #1 TE and a decent flex depending if your league rules allow it. You can still find a #2 RB and a #2 WR (or two #2 WR's). That leaves one spot to fill where you need to get "lucky." You have at least half-a-dozen roster spots with which to do that. The player only needs to be viable. To do this you would have to have some combination of "established" and "potential" players. It would certainly alter the course of the draft. I ran some scenarios on the simulator: MINE QB Carson Wentz PHI RB Todd Gurley LAR RB Marshawn Lynch OAK WR Golden Tate DET WR Allen Robinson CHI TE Travis Kelce KC FLX Rob Gronkowski NE DST LA Chargers LAC K Matt Prater DET BN Chris Thompson WAS BN Nelson Agholor PHI BN Kenny Golladay DET BN C.J. Anderson CAR BN LeGarrette Blount DET BN Chris Godwin TB BN Derek Carr OAK AUTO (after round 3) QB Russell Wilson SEA RB Todd Gurley LAR RB Kerryon Johnson DET WR JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT WR Emmanuel Sanders DEN TE Rob Gronkowski NE FLX Travis Kelce KC DST Philadelphia Eagles PHI K Robbie Gould SF BN Kenny Stills MIA BN Duke Johnson CLE BN Rishard Matthews TEN BN Ty Montgomery GB BN Chris Godwin TB BN Samaje Perine WAS BN Alex Smith WAS Thoughts? I dont mind going TE-TE in a league where you can start both but in a full pt PPR league TEs dont provide the best value either. In a standard league I’d be on board with that strategy big time. Gronk hovers at around 70 catches but gives you TDs while Kelce loses some TDs and gets closer to 80-85 receptions. I think finding a WR that matches those numbers in a PPR league isnt hard to find at the end of round 2/beginning round 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammymvpknight Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: I dont mind going TE-TE in a league where you can start both but in a full pt PPR league TEs dont provide the best value either. In a standard league I’d be on board with that strategy big time. Gronk hovers at around 70 catches but gives you TDs while Kelce loses some TDs and gets closer to 80-85 receptions. I think finding a WR that matches those numbers in a PPR league isnt hard to find at the end of round 2/beginning round 3 Completely agree. I wouldnt mind TE-TE in the later rounds...something like Doyle-Njoku wouldn’t be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFF Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Starting to go all in on Burton in the 6th or 7th round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 22, 2018 Author Share Posted August 22, 2018 4 hours ago, AlanFanecaFan said: Starting to go all in on Burton in the 6th or 7th round. Is there honestly getting enough targets for him to be good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snake Plissken Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 Based on projections and scoring in my top 2 leagues, both Gronk and Kelce would be in the tier after the 12th RB and the 10th WR. Based on that and obviously positional value, that puts them as late second and early third round picks. I would apply similar analysis to whatever scoring system is used. QB is more complicated, but I look at where I think I would get value versus the tier of WR or RBs I could get the next round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klomp Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 On 8/18/2018 at 12:38 PM, holt_bruce81 said: Let me ask you this though, does your QB evaluation change when it's 6 points per passing TD instead of 4? Mine doesn't. It's not about how many points they scored compared to the other positions, but how many points a QB scores compared to the other QBs. Look at last year. 50 points separated QB3 from QB12 in my 6-point league. That's only about a 3-point per game difference, but you could be talking about as much as an 8-round difference in draft price. You start 1 QB and 1 TE. You start 2 RBs and 2 WRs. RBs/WRs far more important to load up on, because the gap is much wider. I wouldn't say I never draft a QB or TE early, but the value has to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babyatemydingo Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 On 8/22/2018 at 11:00 AM, JaguarCrazy2832 said: I dont mind going TE-TE in a league where you can start both but in a full pt PPR league TEs dont provide the best value either. In a standard league I’d be on board with that strategy big time. Gronk hovers at around 70 catches but gives you TDs while Kelce loses some TDs and gets closer to 80-85 receptions. I think finding a WR that matches those numbers in a PPR league isnt hard to find at the end of round 2/beginning round 3 However, you've cornered the market at TE. You stand to gain a huge advantage at TE while sacrificing only a minimal amount at WR, or even less at RB. That does not even express the gains on the two bye weeks. It is likely that you'll face a Doyle, Clay, Howard, Brate or Eifert in that stretch. That has to be a significant advantage. Meanwhile, you'll be seeing anywhere from Cooper to Jones to Gordon to Watkins against a premier TE week to week. You can still pit a Garcon, Nelson or Woods against them on your bye weeks. Is this a recipe for an undefeated season? No. But, it can propel you to 8-10 wins plus the same advantage through the playoffs. It is intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 6 hours ago, babyatemydingo said: However, you've cornered the market at TE. You stand to gain a huge advantage at TE while sacrificing only a minimal amount at WR, or even less at RB. That does not even express the gains on the two bye weeks. It is likely that you'll face a Doyle, Clay, Howard, Brate or Eifert in that stretch. That has to be a significant advantage. Meanwhile, you'll be seeing anywhere from Cooper to Jones to Gordon to Watkins against a premier TE week to week. You can still pit a Garcon, Nelson or Woods against them on your bye weeks. Is this a recipe for an undefeated season? No. But, it can propel you to 8-10 wins plus the same advantage through the playoffs. It is intriguing. I understand the advantage because you have something that no one else will have. Its why I have no problem drafting a TE early if given value and I understand by having the best 2 means you're set to dominate the TE position. Amari Cooper, Marvin Jones or Josh Gordon can easily match Kelce's production though in fact I think they have once before. I wouldn't say this is my go-to strategy but I want to hear how it works out for you. If anything, having 2 of them sets you up well and if both are doing well, you might have an uber trade chip that could net you something serious if the guys with the other TEs mentioned realize they made a mistake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 19 hours ago, Klomp said: Mine doesn't. It's not about how many points they scored compared to the other positions, but how many points a QB scores compared to the other QBs. Look at last year. 50 points separated QB3 from QB12 in my 6-point league. That's only about a 3-point per game difference, but you could be talking about as much as an 8-round difference in draft price. You start 1 QB and 1 TE. You start 2 RBs and 2 WRs. RBs/WRs far more important to load up on, because the gap is much wider. I wouldn't say I never draft a QB or TE early, but the value has to be right. I know there is an 8 round difference and I too have made the 3 pt a game differential argument but how many games have you lost by 3 or less? Sometimes that makes a huge difference and QBs are more consistent than RB/WRs anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klomp Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 3 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: I know there is an 8 round difference and I too have made the 3 pt a game differential argument but how many games have you lost by 3 or less? Sometimes that makes a huge difference and QBs are more consistent than RB/WRs anyways Brees, Ryan, Carr, Winston and Mariota all were drafted as Top-8 QBs and in the first seven rounds last year, but none of them finished the year as Top 10 QBs. That's not even bringing up Rodgers, because of his injury. QBs may be more consistent week-to-week, but that also can mean it's easier to project good players way late in the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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