JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 In 95% of mocks in this forum the thought process is always 1 thing: You took a QB/TE too high and it cost you a legit #2 RB or WR So at what point does the pendulum swing back? I almost feel like the top-tier QB/TEs are being underrated because of this logic now. I think there are 5-6 legit QBs before the hodgepodge from like 7-20 while there are about 5-6 TEs before an absolute mess. Now after the 5-6 are gone then I understand there is no reason to take #7 in any size format but there is something to be said for having a Top-tier must-start every week type player that won't give you 12 from the QB spot or 4 from TE. Is there really something so wrong with taking Gronk/Kelce/Ertz in the 28-36 range? Or a top-tier QB a round or 2 later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDOG_det Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 I'd rather take a TE early tbh. At least with QB you know there will at least be another viable starter available if you don't take one early. Especially if it's a 12 team league, everyone should be able to grab 2 solid options. I also wouldn't focus as much on the top few QB's because there typically is a lot of turnover from year to year with the top scorers outside of the elite QB's (Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Roethlisberger for a while). I'd rather take a shot on a slightly cheaper guy like Matt Ryan hoping that he bounces back, or with Jimmy G and hope he excels in Shanahans offense, or roll the dice on Patrick Mahomes in the hope that you get the next Brett Favre. Even someone like Phillip Rivers is a guy I might target that has a lot of upside with a high floor but will come pretty cheap. Rivers has produced well before and now he has four pretty good receivers in Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Mike Williams, and Travis Benjamin. It's a shame Hunter Henry got injured, but he does have a good 3rd down back in Austin Ekeler who could be a good check down option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holt_bruce81 Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 The only way I take a TE in the early part of the draft is if Gronk is there in the 3rd or Kelce is there in the back half of the 4th where I don't have to hold my breath 10+ picks seeing all the guys I should of drafted going off the board. If that makes sense at all.... I usually find myself waiting until at least the 9th round before selecting my first TE. I find myself drafting Njoku and Doyle a lot, or Njoku and Reed. I have the same thought process when it comes to QB as well, if Rodgers is there in the 3rd, I'm probably going to take him. But if I cant get one of the top 2 QBs in the first 5 rounds, then I'm probably waiting until the 8th-10th round to take a QB. I would love a guy like Russell as my QB but I'm not investing that kind of draft capitol on him. QBs I'm targeting late... 1. Jimmy Garrappolo (I feel like everyone will be in my league though) 2. Marcus Mariota 3. Patrick Mahomes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holt_bruce81 Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 Let me ask you this though, does your QB evaluation change when it's 6 points per passing TD instead of 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 47 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said: Let me ask you this though, does your QB evaluation change when it's 6 points per passing TD instead of 4? Absolutely. Also, 1 or 2 qb league impacts where I'm drafting them. Heavy interception demerits affect my rankings (IE, in my main league, its -3 for an interception...Alex Smith has some really nice value late in the draft as a legit starter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 6 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: In 95% of mocks in this forum the thought process is always 1 thing: You took a QB/TE too high and it cost you a legit #2 RB or WR So at what point does the pendulum swing back? I almost feel like the top-tier QB/TEs are being underrated because of this logic now. I think there are 5-6 legit QBs before the hodgepodge from like 7-20 while there are about 5-6 TEs before an absolute mess. Now after the 5-6 are gone then I understand there is no reason to take #7 in any size format but there is something to be said for having a Top-tier must-start every week type player that won't give you 12 from the QB spot or 4 from TE. Is there really something so wrong with taking Gronk/Kelce/Ertz in the 28-36 range? Or a top-tier QB a round or 2 later? My theory on tight end is to either take one of the best early on, or wait until the end. After a certain point, there's not much difference between quite a few of them. So if you miss out on Gronk / Kelce / etc, then just wait. There is some good value upside to be had later in the draft. Jordan Reed is not going to go high, and burning a 9th/10th rounder on him is fine if he can't stay healthy. George Kittle has some nice athletic upside that could break out (I'm not banking on it, but I'd probably take him over some of the other tight ends in that area) Quarterbacks can vary depending on league settings. Typically, I wait until the middle / late rounds, but again, can depend on settings. That has been my way for quite a long time and usually it's fine (I end up with someone like Rivers / Stafford), but last year my quarterback position was a black hole of incompetence, I will admit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFF Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 QB is do deep but it think you can get value around the 8th/9th round with someone like Cam or Luck. If you’re going streamer, Alex Smith has really easy 1st 3 weeks....Stafford in the 10/11 area is nice....really easy 1st half of year schedule. TE I feel is 10 deep...I’ve been leaning going after the middle tier of 1 of Rudolph/Walker/Reed/Burton somewhere around the 7th round. Some nice later TEs are the Colts pair, and maybe Vance MacDonald if he ever gets healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 13 minutes ago, AlanFanecaFan said: maybe Vance MacDonald if he ever gets healthy. And learns how to catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MightyMouse07 Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 Reed/Davis combo is what I’m aiming for. Feel like you’ll get a guaranteed TE1. You can get them in the 9th and 16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFF Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 12 minutes ago, MightyMouse07 said: Reed/Davis combo is what I’m aiming for. Feel like you’ll get a guaranteed TE1. You can get them in the 9th and 16th Started doing this myself a bit recently...I’m a fan. With Luck back, could even do Doyle/Ebron in a similar style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFF Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 29 minutes ago, Forge said: And learns how to catch. Was out snapping James down the stretch last year especially in the playoffs...has suspect hands yes but he’s well worth a last few rds lottery pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 18, 2018 Author Share Posted August 18, 2018 4 hours ago, holt_bruce81 said: Let me ask you this though, does your QB evaluation change when it's 6 points per passing TD instead of 4? It definitely does as some QBs are more predicated on volume yards rather than TDs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SimsZilla Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 just got ertz in the 5th in my main money league, was very pleased. i never go super early on TE but couldnt pass up the value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr LBC Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 Unless I'm getting stellar value (2 rounds past ADP), I'm not even considering a TE until my last 3 picks. You can typically find a serviceable streamer that late just based on the player's situation (QB who has a history of targeting the TE - particularly in the red zone, rookie QB who is going to use a safety blanket a lot, etc.) and then I wait for people to get impatient with the guys they've got or for injury to create an opportunity for someone off the waiver wire. I loved Jimmy Graham's potential this year, but I hated his ADP because it basically required him to put up mid-level or better WR2 numbers on a consistent basis and I'm not sure he's going to do that. QB's (save for in the league I'm in that has a move-cap) I'm actually perfectly fine streaming (you just have to be on the ball and plan ahead) and if I happen to pick up someone who breaks out along the way (happened to me last year with Alex Smith), I'm good to go sticking with them. Usually, you'll find me streaming at least one of QB's or defenses in any given league. As to how I scout guys for it, it really comes down to tiering your targets and projecting their stats (or finding a source you're confident in their ability to stat them out and trusting those numbers). At that point, you basically turn drafting into blackjack but with a bit of scarcity factored in. There are always going to be point differentials, but you want to compare the magnitude of the difference between the guy you can get at one position in this round versus the point projection for the guys at the same position who will still be around next round. More often that not, I've found that once you get outside the Top 2 or 3 QB's, who are going to cost you shots at the top tier WR2's, the mid-tier RB2's, the difference in projected production between QB's 4-12 isn't nearly as expansive as the difference between the mid-tier RB2's and the RB3's or the top tier WR2's and the lower-tier RB2's and the top-tier WR3's. This, of course, goes out the window in 2 QB leagues, but I've never gotten down with that BS to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammymvpknight Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 I tier the QBs and TEs. I will usually go RB and WR BPA in every round, but I come to a round that I feel that I'm not getting great value at either position, I look at the QB and TE tiers and see if it makes sense. I typically like to get a second tier TE. Ertz for instance was being drafted after a number of other TEs who I felt was in his same tier last year...so I used those other players being picked to indicator that it was time to draft Ertz. I do the same at QB. This year, I think that Rudolph will probably be on many of my teams. At QB, I think that I'll end up with lots of guys like Stafford and Rivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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