Dcash4 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, warfelg said: They set the market rather than letting the market set itself. Again, I don't think there is a market to set. We are talking about them sending out a low bid offer -- but teams already ran away from the conversation. If teams are not willing to go 2 1st and negotiate openly with Lamar....I find it hard to believe the Ravens left more on the table. I do not think the Ravens did this to lose Lamar. I think they did it so that someone is right and someone is wrong in their negotiations with him. If he is right and can get fully guarantees...the Ravens can match. If he is wrong, he is holding out on accepting a contract for nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Dcash4 said: Again, I don't think there is a market to set. We are talking about them sending out a low bid offer -- but teams already ran away from the conversation. If teams are not willing to go 2 1st and negotiate openly with Lamar....I find it hard to believe the Ravens left more on the table. I do not think the Ravens did this to lose Lamar. I think they did it so that someone is right and someone is wrong in their negotiations with him. If he is right and can get fully guarantees...the Ravens can match. If he is wrong, he is holding out on accepting a contract for nothing. I guess that’s the part I disagree on. 2 1sts being the “low bid” offer. I feel like that was the best case scenario when you had teams fighting each other. At this point, for other teams the leverage is now the fully guaranteed contract with no guarantee that he’d be out of Baltimore. Partially if I were advising Lamar I’d tell him to sign the tag right now. Open your market back up by changing the price on what needs to be traded. EDIT - I also believe this is the type of scenario the NFLPA has wanted for a long time to argue for the death of the franchise tag. A player being held hostage by the non-exclusive. If he wants out and signs an offer sheet, Baltimore is fine with the contract structure, he’s tied to a team he doesn’t want to be with. His best option is sign the tag and not have long term security and be with a team that puts him at risk. Edited March 8, 2023 by warfelg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jebrick Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Another team could offer him more than Baltimore is willing to pay and thus Lamar is free. If a team is going to give up 2 1st round picks then it is going to punish the Ravens for matching. There is no reason to offer a reasonable contact that Baltimore might match. but I do agree that his best thing is to sign the tag and get the money and play but I doubt that is what he is going to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, jebrick said: Another team could offer him more than Baltimore is willing to pay and thus Lamar is free. If a team is going to give up 2 1st round picks then it is going to punish the Ravens for matching. There is no reason to offer a reasonable contact that Baltimore might match. but I do agree that his best thing is to sign the tag and get the money and play but I doubt that is what he is going to do. It’s gonna take a cap hit in year round of around $45mil for that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 51 minutes ago, warfelg said: I guess that’s the part I disagree on. 2 1sts being the “low bid” offer. I feel like that was the best case scenario when you had teams fighting each other. Sorry, I am a bit confused. Do you think 2 firsts is the best case scenario? Earlier you mentioned the Ravens using 1st, 2nd, and 3rds in the next two drafts as a starting point in a market competition. IMO, the only way Lamar is getting a fully guaranteed offer is if he hits the open market. If that happens, the Ravens only get a 3rd round comp (and that's a maybe). 57 minutes ago, warfelg said: I also believe this is the type of scenario the NFLPA has wanted for a long time to argue for the death of the franchise tag. It's never going away. It affects less than 1% of the player pool inside the NFLPA. When it comes time to vote you will never get enough traction in using the franchise tag as a counter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, jebrick said: There is no reason to offer a reasonable contact that Baltimore might match. Outside of that deal might ultimately be unreasonable for you too. Finding a price that is going to drain your own cap while spending the 2 firsts is a tall task. You would have to have a hard cap hit in year 1 that the Ravens cant/wont match. It's basically slamming your own roster building shut for a year to get Lamar and then limiting everything you can do thereafter -- and doing it without 2 firsts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 14 minutes ago, Dcash4 said: Sorry, I am a bit confused. Do you think 2 firsts is the best case scenario? Earlier you mentioned the Ravens using 1st, 2nd, and 3rds in the next two drafts as a starting point in a market competition. You think negotiations should start at 2 1sts. I think that’s where it would top out at. I don’t think they would have been able to get ‘23 1st, ‘24 1st, and additional picks. But ‘23 1st/3rd and ‘24 2/3 or 4 would be what they got. Lamar has a big game production problem, injury issues with his legs over multiple years, needing the contract. That’s not worth multiple 1sts, but it is worth an extra day 2 pick or two. 6 minutes ago, Dcash4 said: while spending the 2 firsts is a tall task. That’s where I’m at. That’s a steep price. But some seconds can be tolerable. Just to establish the baseline - Lamar open market trade with the contract he wants - what’s he worth? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 17 minutes ago, warfelg said: You think negotiations should start at 2 1sts. I think that’s where it would top out at. I don’t think they would have been able to get ‘23 1st, ‘24 1st, and additional picks. But ‘23 1st/3rd and ‘24 2/3 or 4 would be what they got. Lamar has a big game production problem, injury issues with his legs over multiple years, needing the contract. That’s not worth multiple 1sts, but it is worth an extra day 2 pick or two. Im sorry, I am still confused because of what you said earlier. You said they blew it because they could have had a market to negotiate more, but now they blew it because that's a max offer and can't take less? 3 hours ago, warfelg said: This is why I think they blew it. They took the slim chance of making a market and killed it by making the price 2 firsts rather than having negotiations. If Lamar were exclusive, EDC could have said bidding starts at 1st, 2nd, 3rd in the next two drafts; let offers come to him. Teams will always outbid each other. Then go to Lamar with three offers you are comfortable with, tell him here’s the teams, which one do you want to talk to. I think the Ravens are done negotiating against a brick wall and get a sense there is no market for him worth opening up to offers. Lamar is about to find out if his market is real or fictional. Trades and contracts are defined by leverage. The only leverage that Lamar has is a market that he believes exists. It may or it may not. The Ravens have opened up that market to drive negotiations. Lamar is either going to be right and get his fully guaranteed money or wrong and have to take a deal he fought so hard to avoid or wait two more years to try again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Dcash4 said: Im sorry, I am still confused because of what you said earlier. You said they blew it because they could have had a market to negotiate more, but now they blew it because that's a max offer and can't take less? I think the Ravens are done negotiating against a brick wall and get a sense there is no market for him worth opening up to offers. Lamar is about to find out if his market is real or fictional. Trades and contracts are defined by leverage. The only leverage that Lamar has is a market that he believes exists. It may or it may not. The Ravens have opened up that market to drive negotiations. Lamar is either going to be right and get his fully guaranteed money or wrong and have to take a deal he fought so hard to avoid or wait two more years to try again. Non-exclusive is either he signs an offer sheet and you let him walk for 2 1sts, you match, or he plays on the tag. They have no ability to negotiate a middle ground. That’s a failure IMO. But what would you value him at if he had the contract he wants? Are you starting at 2 1st round picks? Edited March 8, 2023 by warfelg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jebrick Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Not quite. He can sign the tag and they can keep negotiating until mid July ( I think). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 19 minutes ago, jebrick said: Not quite. He can sign the tag and they can keep negotiating until mid July ( I think). IIRC when he signs it he can’t talk to other teams, only BMore. But he seems to be disinterested in talking with them. I would love to see him sign it, refuse to work out a deal, keep missing time with “injuries”, and dare BMore to tag him again. I have very little sympathy anymore after we were made to be villains in the Bell saga. I remember ravens coaches and FO making comments about tagging players without negotiating fairly (aka giving in to his demands) after doing so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jebrick Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 But Balitmore can and they can still trade him IF he signs the tag. Or they can give him permission to work out a deal with a team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, jebrick said: But Balitmore can and they can still trade him IF he signs the tag. Or they can give him permission to work out a deal with a team. They can try, but why not just exclusive tag him from the start then? That kinda my point with all these teams being out already. EDC missed on the trade market. If these teams are really out he lost the leverage for a second 1st round pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 39 minutes ago, warfelg said: They can try, but why not just exclusive tag him from the start then? That kinda my point with all these teams being out already. EDC missed on the trade market. If these teams are really out he lost the leverage for a second 1st round pick. It feels like you are just assuming the Ravens want to trade him and that anything outside of a trade is a failure. The reason you do the non-exclusive is for visibility. There’s no hiding the market from Lamar. He believes there’s something out there for him that the ravens don’t believe exist. Now they get to find out who is right and potentially come to a resolution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Dcash4 said: It feels like you are just assuming the Ravens want to trade him and that anything outside of a trade is a failure. The reason you do the non-exclusive is for visibility. There’s no hiding the market from Lamar. He believes there’s something out there for him that the ravens don’t believe exist. Now they get to find out who is right and potentially come to a resolution. They don’t really get to because what ever team gets to show Lamar “he was right” does so with the assumed risk of losing 2 1sts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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