Official TAST - This A'int Steelers Talk Thread

[warfelg]

25 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

But IMO the first stepping stone to this is that Tomlin isn't the HC anymore. You would need a really reliable, repeatedly good game caller on offense and the only way to get (and more importantly KEEP) that would be with a offensive HC. 

Or you just have a really good defense, strong run game, and put the QB in position to have to only make 3-5 plays a game.  Which is what Tomlin is good at.

[Dcash4]

3 minutes ago, warfelg said:

Or you just have a really good defense, strong run game, and put the QB in position to have to only make 3-5 plays a game.  Which is what Tomlin is good at.

As I said, it's my opinion and I know well how you feel about the guy in your avatar. 

But I don't think the Matt Canada's and Randy Fichtner's of the world will get the job done in the scenario if you are really trying to win championships. 

[jebrick]

6 minutes ago, warfelg said:

Or you just have a really good defense, strong run game, and put the QB in position to have to only make 3-5 plays a game.  Which is what Tomlin is good at.

It is also what Cowher was good at and must be what the Owner wants them to do.

[warfelg]

3 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

As I said, it's my opinion and I know well how you feel about the guy in your avatar. 

But I don't think the Matt Canada's and Randy Fichtner's of the world will get the job done in the scenario if you are really trying to win championships. 

What's that feeling?  Bet your wrong.

[warfelg]

2 minutes ago, jebrick said:

It is also what Cowher was good at and must be what the Owner wants them to do.

Yup.  I believe in our system QB is even less important than many of these "guru offensive guys".  How many of these guys that are those QB whisperers look like busts because they have the wrong QB.  Meanwhile Tomlin has managed to have a winning record relying on guys like Charlie Batch, Dennis Dixon, Byron Leftwitch, Landry Jones, Mason Rudolph.  

At this point Tomlin is getting a terrible rap from Steelers fans and laying stuff at his feet because the franchise prefers to operate behind closed doors.  I mean hell, Tomlin, Khan, and Rooney have all basically said to the media the only reason Matt Canada is back is for stability around Kenny and not to change things on him too fast.  I would easily be willing to bet that if it's still a stale offense this season that they would look to make a move.  But whatever.  

[AFF]

1 hour ago, warfelg said:

Yea.  Hell I'm verging on the it's almost worth it to start selling off QB's before the contract, then packaging picks to move up, and get another cheap QB.  Basically continually keep the roster loaded and let the QB be the interchangeable part.

Unless the QB is a for sure a top 5 QB, I’m selling him off to highest bidder.

I also think that QB is still the most important position on the field…however paying a non elite QB like Carr to a run of $40+mill cap hit is absurd.

[AFF]

42 minutes ago, jebrick said:

It is also what Cowher was good at and must be what the Owner wants them to do.

Just my opinion but the current NFL doesn’t support that this is th correct way of going about things.

[warfelg]

2 minutes ago, AFF said:

Unless the QB is a for sure a top 5 QB, I’m selling him off to highest bidder.

I also think that QB is still the most important position on the field…however paying a non elite QB like Carr to a run of $40+mill cap hit is absurd.

I'm gonna give you a HUGE zig moment:

QB is going to be the 3rd most important position in about 4-5 years.

[warfelg]

1 minute ago, AFF said:

Just my opinion but the current NFL doesn’t support that this is th correct way of going about things.

It's going there.  Last year was the most teams near 50/50 run/pass in 10 years.

[AFF]

1 hour ago, warfelg said:

It's going there.  Last year was the most teams near 50/50 run/pass in 10 years.

Off the top my head, you still need an elite QB to win the SB.

Not calling you out but I’d like to know how the majority of those teams did in terms of PPG.

[warfelg]

1 hour ago, AFF said:

Off the top my head, you still need an elite QB to win the SB.

Not calling you out but I’d like to know how the majority of those teams did in terms of PPG.

2022 KC scored the most at 29.2 with a 61/39 pass/run balance, however their running was successful.

Philly scored the 2nd most at 29.1 with a 50/50 pass/run balance.

2021: Dallas 30.4 PPG, 59/41 pass/run

TB 29.9 PPG, 66/34 pass run

2020: GB 31.5 PPG, 56/44 pass run

TB 30.8 PPG, 62/38 pass run

2019: BMore 31.9 PPG, 42/58 pass/run

KC 29.9 PPG, 61/39 pass/run

 

Division Championship teams:

2019: KC - 61/39, Tenn 51/49, SF 48/52, GB 60/40

2020: KC 62/38, Buff 62/38, TB 62/38, GB 56/44

2021: SF 51/49, LAR 59/41, KC 62/38, CIN 59/41

2022: CIN 62/38, KC 61/39, SF 51/49, PHI 50/50

Now something to consider with some of these teams in here - 2021 Dallas had an elite defense giving them a short field.  Most times the top scoring teams aren't all the way there.  The league as a whole is going closer to 50/50, IIRC last year is was 55/45 pass/run.  

Now a case like KC - Especially before this year, they used a lot of small shovel passes and short TE screens as a way to develop a run game in effect, but it goes down as a pass.  For example (https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/breakdowns/how-the-short-passing-game-has-changed-the-nfl/) in 2021 the Chiefs ran a screen on 11.7% of their pass downs.  That's 77 passes he had that count to that 62% pass rate that were passes behind the LOS.  So shift that goes to 598 passes and 508 rushes.  That's a 54/46 pass run ratio.  That year 29.9% of Mahomes passes didn't go past the LOS.  So if you do that math on that could flip it completely around to being 46% of plays had the ball cross the LOS in the air and 54% kept the ball behind the LOS.  FWIW that year Mahomes was 20th (20th!!!! He was behind Teddy Bridgewater!!) in passes more than 20 yards.

The biggest movement is to get your player into space and let them make plays.  So these "passes" like highlighted are really more of a run play to most coaches.  It just gets the ball quickly into a players hands and let him make something out of it.

Also the notion of needing an elite QB - these are QB's in the last 10 years of SB's:

2012 - Flacco/Kaepernick - neither elite

2013 - Wilson/Manning - Wilson wasn't elite yet

2014 - Brady/Wilson - Wilson not elite yet

2015 - Manning/Newton - Manning out of his prime

2016 - Brady/Ryan - Matty Ice was never elite

2017 - Foles/Brady - Another non-elite

2018 - Brady/Goff

2019 - Mahomes/Garoppolo

2020 - Brady/Mahomes

2021 - Stafford/Burrow - Your call on stafford

2022 - Mahomes/Hurts - again your call on Hurts

I think it's a bigger mixed bag on the elite QB thing than you think.

But I'll give you something every one of these teams/QB's have in common:

Top 10 run rate success.

Top 10 DOVA defense.

[Dcash4]

1 hour ago, AFF said:

Off the top my head, you still need an elite QB to win the SB.

Not calling you out but I’d like to know how the majority of those teams did in terms of PPG.

I wouldn't say you need the elite QB, but you need a top 10 offense. That can be a combination of QB and OC/HC. 

Last 10 super bowl games were between scoring offenses:

1 & 2
8 & 7
3 & 6
5 & 2
7 & 11
2 & 3
3 & 1
19 + 1 (Hey, old Peyton)
4 & 10
9 +1

So 2 teams outside of the top 10 in scoring offense and only 1 winner. Here are the winning QB/play caller combos:

Mahomes/Reid
Stafford/McVay
Brady/Arians
Mahomes/Reid
Brady/McDaniels
Nick Foles/Peterson
Brady/McDaniels
Manning/Kubiak
Brady/McDaniels
Russell Wilson/Bevell

Foles and Bevell are really the only two names that stand out on that page that wouldn't be considered in the conversation for top 10-15 at the position groups during those years. 

DVOA by super bowl winners:

2022: Chiefs, O 1st, D 17th
2021: Rams: O 8th, D 5th
2020: Bucs, O 3rd, D 5th
2019: Chiefs, O 3rd, D 14th
2018: Pats, O 6th, D 19th
2017: Eagles, O 7th, D 5th
2016: Pats, O 2nd, D 16th
2015: Broncos, O 24th, D 1st
2014: Pats, O 6th, D 16th
2013: Seahawks, O 7th, D 1st

Just additional DVOA thing I found interesting: 

Average DVOA of teams that WON a playoff game last year (lost in parentheses):
- 2022 Offense: 6.25, Defense 12 (O 18, D 16.5)
- 2021 Offense: 7.5, Defense 10.8 (O 13.75, D 12.75)

Moral of the story is that you have to consistently have a good offense but your defense has the most room for fluctuation. Whether that's an Elite QB or a good QB and good play caller doesn't really matter. I give zero craps about how you slice it run to pass wise -- the only thing that matters is that you find good offense. And good offense is driven by two things: QB and play caller.

(just a hint that if you are driven by a run game and short passing schemes -- it's the play caller) 

So, back to the original, I think it's a fun thought experiment to have in this age of mediocre QBs costing you $30M+ to consider continually hitting the bargain bin. But if you are going to do it with a goal of winning a CHAMPIONSHIP... I think you need to first adjust to make sure you are play caller centric to drive home the consistency as your QB position ebbs and flows. 

Could Tomlin have an average team doing this? Absolutely. 

Could Tomlin win a championship doing this? ...Maybe?

Could Tomlin be a multi-champion doing this? Absolutely not. 

So in order to play that thought experiment out, IMO it needs to start with changing from Tomlin to an offensive minded HC. Not because I hate Tomlin, not because I don't think he is a good coach, but because in order to win a championship in the NFL you need to consistently have a top 10 offense and I don't think you can have that swapping out QBs AND coordinators on the regular. 

 

[3rivers]

On 4/17/2023 at 3:49 PM, warfelg said:

2022 KC scored the most at 29.2 with a 61/39 pass/run balance, however their running was successful.

Philly scored the 2nd most at 29.1 with a 50/50 pass/run balance.

2021: Dallas 30.4 PPG, 59/41 pass/run

TB 29.9 PPG, 66/34 pass run

2020: GB 31.5 PPG, 56/44 pass run

TB 30.8 PPG, 62/38 pass run

2019: BMore 31.9 PPG, 42/58 pass/run

KC 29.9 PPG, 61/39 pass/run

 

Division Championship teams:

2019: KC - 61/39, Tenn 51/49, SF 48/52, GB 60/40

2020: KC 62/38, Buff 62/38, TB 62/38, GB 56/44

2021: SF 51/49, LAR 59/41, KC 62/38, CIN 59/41

2022: CIN 62/38, KC 61/39, SF 51/49, PHI 50/50

Now something to consider with some of these teams in here - 2021 Dallas had an elite defense giving them a short field.  Most times the top scoring teams aren't all the way there.  The league as a whole is going closer to 50/50, IIRC last year is was 55/45 pass/run.  

Now a case like KC - Especially before this year, they used a lot of small shovel passes and short TE screens as a way to develop a run game in effect, but it goes down as a pass.  For example (https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/breakdowns/how-the-short-passing-game-has-changed-the-nfl/) in 2021 the Chiefs ran a screen on 11.7% of their pass downs.  That's 77 passes he had that count to that 62% pass rate that were passes behind the LOS.  So shift that goes to 598 passes and 508 rushes.  That's a 54/46 pass run ratio.  That year 29.9% of Mahomes passes didn't go past the LOS.  So if you do that math on that could flip it completely around to being 46% of plays had the ball cross the LOS in the air and 54% kept the ball behind the LOS.  FWIW that year Mahomes was 20th (20th!!!! He was behind Teddy Bridgewater!!) in passes more than 20 yards.

The biggest movement is to get your player into space and let them make plays.  So these "passes" like highlighted are really more of a run play to most coaches.  It just gets the ball quickly into a players hands and let him make something out of it.

Also the notion of needing an elite QB - these are QB's in the last 10 years of SB's:

2012 - Flacco/Kaepernick - neither elite

2013 - Wilson/Manning - Wilson wasn't elite yet

2014 - Brady/Wilson - Wilson not elite yet

2015 - Manning/Newton - Manning out of his prime

2016 - Brady/Ryan - Matty Ice was never elite

2017 - Foles/Brady - Another non-elite

2018 - Brady/Goff

2019 - Mahomes/Garoppolo

2020 - Brady/Mahomes

2021 - Stafford/Burrow - Your call on stafford

2022 - Mahomes/Hurts - again your call on Hurts

I think it's a bigger mixed bag on the elite QB thing than you think.

But I'll give you something every one of these teams/QB's have in common:

Top 10 run rate success.

Top 10 DOVA defense.

what about the OL's , could you elaborate on their pass protection rank? I just think the talent has to be around the QB as well, and usually is. Brady always had a good to excellent OL.  Stafford finally had a good LT in Withworth, Hurts and Foles had the OL of course. Mahomes too, this years OL was solid and then some. 

 

On 4/17/2023 at 12:49 PM, AFF said:

Unless the QB is a for sure a top 5 QB, I’m selling him off to highest bidder.

I also think that QB is still the most important position on the field…however paying a non elite QB like Carr to a run of $40+mill cap hit is absurd.

and to consider the QB deals are getting out of control,  $40M won't be much for a QB at this rate in 4 years.  

 

[warfelg]

Lamar got locked up long term. 

[bigben07MVP]

26 minutes ago, warfelg said:

Lamar got locked up long term. 

185 million guaranteed